Random weather in GC41 - qui bono?

[sillyflower]

As I have just returned to playing as Jerry for the 1st time in 2 years, I thought I would start the psychological metagame vs Manstein63 as I await his 1st turn.

Playing standard rules + house rules with mild winter and random weather. The latter was his choice. I haven't played with it before as G. Played as Russian a couple of times in the early days with G opponents who wanted it. They both got some mud very early on and promptly gave up.

It seems to me that, in the round, random benefits the german player, now that a '41 German 'win' is (rightly) so much harder/ impossible against a competent opponent like M. Leaving June '41 aside, the most important advantage to G player as 1st mover is that he always knows what the weather will be in his opponent's next turn. The Russian won't unless it is 1 of those turns where the weather is known in an area because it is fixed by a rule or the limited mud/snow ration has been used up.

Manstein will therefore be in a constant state of anxiety and never able to exploit the weather forecast as well as I can.

[smokindave34]

First, let me welcome you over to the axis side. Everyone knows that the best and brightest of players choose axis because they want a real challenge (I don't really mean that, I just want to stir up anger and venom among my Soviet opponents!)

As for random weather it's not quite as random as you may think. IIRC you can only get one mud turn per sector during the summer so once that occurs you pretty much know what the weather will be until the next season change. Granted - until the mud hits it will keep you guessing. My opinion is that it helps the Soviets as you may be less inclined to take chances and stick your panzers out too far if you are afraid of getting a mud turn during the following week.

[sillyflower]

I agree that it helps Soviets in the 1st 17 turns, but even The Pro's took until 1945 to crush you . I'm expecting a long game.

I just reckon in the long run it helps Germans more than Soviet, and I'm happy to get my win by holding Berlin past the historical date. We're playing the same win condition as we had in our game.

[Flaviusx]

Random weather has always been to the Soviet benefit in 1941. For the Axis there is no substitute for 17 guaranteed clear turns in all relevant zones. And since most Axis players aren't interested in playing a long drawn out game and want to set themselves up either for an early win or a strong position to deliver a coup de grace in 42 they obviously will favor this.

It's later on that random weather starts working against the Sov, but the vast majority of Axis players aren't interested in the long run. They figure that in the long run they are dead. Very few are going to see the thing through to Berlin if it comes down to that. They'll throw the towel in earlier. Frankly, this is completely rational, I'm not sure I'd play a game out to the bitter end myself once it became clear where it is heading. Same goes for the Sovs, there's no shame in resigning early there either if you do badly in 41 and starting over fresh. Any experienced player of this game can tell what the writing on the wall is long before it actually ends. Once you get behind the curve it is very hard to turn things around absent a massive brain fart, but you can't really count on that. And unfortunately there's very few games that stay competitive in the first two years of the war: almost invariably one or the other side pulls visibly ahead and stays ahead. There's only a bare handful of truly competitive matches that might go into 43 with the issue in question. The game has way too many feedback mechanisms to trap you in.

[sillyflower]

Wasn't it you who kept telling Terje to give up before he got his amazing win? Clearly, fixed weather is a short term benefit for the German. If it makes an outright German victory much easier ( esp. as we are playing with reduced 1st winter effects) then for me that's a reason to go random.


You are right in general about people giving up. Has been the bane of my WITE experience. However, of the Pros last 3 opponents Smokin' Dave played on until Berlin fell, Disgruntled Vet is hanging on in there currently (Sept '43 and he is getting smacked about not least because Smokin' gave us the long game experience I had never had, and I'm sure Hitman would have played to the bitter end had we been able to enjoy a game with a turn every 9-10 days.

I said in my advert I would play it out and I intend to. I really do recommend the VC I use though for anyone wanting a long game. Making a Russian win dependent on taking Berlin by historical date
does give the German much more to play for than WITE's VCs. For that reason, I'm happy with random weather. Of course, if I force a Russian surrender in '42, I will claim extra bragging rights in the light of your post.

[carlkay58]

I personally prefer the random weather in campaigns no matter which side I play. If I play a shorter scenario, then you have to have non-random weather or the offensive player will probably suffer too much of a penalty.

The weather will give one mud turn in each of the weather zones in summer of 41. If the Axis figures on that going in, they can use that turn or two to their advantage and use it to rest their troops. Going first allows them to cover their exposure as much as possible and then plan for the turn after that, especially since the Soviets will be slowed down in their running for the mud turn.

[Flaviusx]

Sillyflower, there are always exceptions to everything. But by and large, come from behind wins don't happen much in this game. The person who falls behind tends to stay behind and get even further behind and things snowball. That is the nature of the beast -- the game mechanics reinforce failure and success and make it hard to recover. A really first class player won't have a brain fart and give up a lead, this is usually the result of inexperience.

[sillyflower]

Defeatist talk, young Flavius[:-]

Remember 1762. Hold out with an iron will, and a miracle will happen.

[swkuh]

We give too much credence to the developers' victory conditions. Believe that one's own interpretations of the game should rule, even in H2H competition. Of course, this idea does lead to both sides claiming victory.

Believe that in H2H play both sides should understand how long the game will be played, and, what conditions will end the game earlier.

[gingerbread]

Random favours the first player, Axis.

Yes, it's very nice to have 17 turns of assured clear in non-random, but it's also possible to get out of the comfy chair and contingency plan for mud. That is what the Soviets have to do, or rather the opposite, plan for not mud when it would be certain mud in non-random. Also, there is a limit of 1 mud per zone, but no such limit for not mud in late fall.

[STEF78]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Random weather has always been to the Soviet benefit in 1941. For the Axis there is no substitute for 17 guaranteed clear turns in all relevant zones. And since most Axis players aren't interested in playing a long drawn out game and want to set themselves up either for an early win or a strong position to deliver a coup de grace in 42 they obviously will favor this.

It's later on that random weather starts working against the Sov, but the vast majority of Axis players aren't interested in the long run.

I fully agree with this point of view

I have experienced two games entering 1944 and beyond as german player and there is no doubt. After 1941, non random weather is a huge advantage for the russian player.