The Great Patriotic War (loki100 vs SigUp) ... SigUp welcome to read

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

ORIGINAL: loki100

I've been giving Stalin free access to the special Central Committee vodka stocks so he doesn't notice that all the industry in Moscow has surprisingly been disappearing.

That's actually a pretty good strategy. SigUp should probably do the same for Hitler. [;)]

Congratulations on a good start (well it seemed that way to me) to the winter offensive. Even if you end up short of your goals at least you have the initiative for a season and that is a very welcome change of pace.

Aye getting our respective glorious leaders out of the way seems an excellent idea

The bit I am happy about is the damage south of Kaluga, that shows the benefit of planning the OOB of the shock army, it has heavy guns and katyushas that have sat in Stavka since July and most of its rifle divisions are the high morale Siberians.

Overall, as you say the good bit is not having to open each turn dreading to see what damage SigUp has just done.

ORIGINAL: Stuyvesant

It's hard to gauge your offensive so far, loki, it being only a week old. You're mostly victorious, but certainly on a map it doesn't look like more than a few shallow penetrations, dents in the front rather than big, gaping holes. Again, your offensive is only a week old, so a lot could change. Still, you pushed aside a fair number of Panzer divisions and you even brushed an SS unit aside (Himmler will be sad, I'm sure). Shame that those Romanians (no, not those routing Romanians, the other Romanians) managed to hang in there and kill 1,600 Soviets.

aye, the idea is to poke the sort of holes into SigUp's front that will make him start to abandon positions, so its a bit of a ripple effect. I'm not sure that north of Moscow I'm going very far, but it may be that the attacks from Kalinin Front (which are really designed just to do damage) and Leningrad Front (another Shock Army is forming up to the rear) may dislocate a lot of his defense lines.

But it will be another a couple of turns before I can really judge if this is going to achieve even the modest goals I want

ORIGINAL: jwolf

ORIGINAL: Stuyvesant

It's hard to gauge your offensive so far, loki, it being only a week old. You're mostly victorious, but certainly on a map it doesn't look like more than a few shallow penetrations, dents in the front rather than big, gaping holes. Again, your offensive is only a week old, so a lot could change. Still, you pushed aside a fair number of Panzer divisions and you even brushed an SS unit aside (Himmler will be sad, I'm sure). Shame that those Romanians (no, not those routing Romanians, the other Romanians) managed to hang in there and kill 1,600 Soviets.

Loki shouldn't worry about an occasional failed attack. If they all worked, it would mean he's not being aggressive enough. This will be his only good shot at the Germans for a long, long time so he really has to make it count. (Well that is my rookie's opinion; others including Loki himself may believe differently.) It usually takes a few turns to see how much of an effect an offensive has, especially a grinding type of offensive which is all Loki can do for now. His goal is to put pressure on the German front line units, giving them a choice: stay and get ground up to dust; or fall back and concede territory. I think he's off to a good start but we won't really know for a little while.

Thats more or less my view, there is nothing elegant to this offensive, I could do without 1-10 losses in a failed attack but it all keeps up the pressure. I think that was a typical brain-fart loss (ie all the random bits went against me), if I had taken Sverdlovsk then the Germans around Rostov would have been exposed.

ORIGINAL: randallw

If the German side wants to keep his armor in the open and allow it to be punished by the blizzard attrition, along with heavy fighting, oblige him. [:D]

I think this is where I am getting payback for all those snippy attacks on the German infantry south of the Oka and west of Tula. Its quite an important sector as it potentially opens the road to Kaluga and Bryansk (ok this is me doing my channeling of Stalin in the Stavka map room), so SigUp needs to try and halt me. I've also worked hard (ie spent ages doing tedious OOB work) to ensure that Leningrad Front has the tools for the job. A few 9-10 CV stacks makes a real difference in terms of what looks like a feasible target - of course losses and fatigue will take their toll here.

But for the moment, I see this sector as the one place where I can do damage to both infantry and panzers, more or less on my terms

ORIGINAL: jmarzian

On no, what happened, another good reading AAR coming to an early ending?

Hi, and welcome

No the game is alive, just stalled. SigUp has real life time demands so can't manage to do a turn at the moment. Hopefully normal service will be resumed ...

presume you've found his AAR as a source of material too ...

[jmarzian]

Great to hear, love the use of the the photos, makes for an even better read of an already great AAR. Looking foward to more.

[Stuyvesant]

ORIGINAL: loki100(ok this is me doing my channeling of Stalin in the Stavka map room)

I get scared when you start chanelling Stalin. [;)]

Okay, bit of a throwaway comment (filled with snark, no less). On the bright side, glad to hear that this will continue.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Stuyvesant

ORIGINAL: loki100(ok this is me doing my channeling of Stalin in the Stavka map room)

I get scared when you start chanelling Stalin. [;)]

Okay, bit of a throwaway comment (filled with snark, no less). On the bright side, glad to hear that this will continue.

och at least I've not mentioned Klim Voroshilov, master of the Volga [8D] - this will only make sense to the few participants in a RUS PBEM that featured many an email bearing less relationship to reality than Pravda, or the Daily Mail, but when Klim's exploits in sailing up and down the Volga had a definite effect the Siberian White faction

In reality Stalin's desire to sketch out lines on maps in the basement of the Kremlin was a cause of many of the Red Army's disasters. Koniev mentions that after Kalinin Front had won its share of the Moscow offensive being a wee bitty [1] surprised to see Smolensk as his next operational target.

Add to that, Stalin bypassing Stavka to do deals with individual Fronts and sometimes Army commanders and you end up with a disaster on the Kharkov scale.

[1] - well of course as he didn't speak Scots he didn't actually express it that way.

[Wuffer]

ORIGINAL: loki100

wee bitty

[1] - well of course as he didn't speak Scots he didn't actually express it that way.

Me too, not only that unfortunately I can't speak Scots, I have trouble understanding it too.
Probably I am very tired, but I had no clue of your whole pointe.

[mind_messing]

I've followed your stuff over at Paradox, great to see you over here as well Loki!

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Wuffer

ORIGINAL: loki100

wee bitty

[1] - well of course as he didn't speak Scots he didn't actually express it that way.

Me too, not only that unfortunately I can't speak Scots, I have trouble understanding it too.
Probably I am very tired, but I had no clue of your whole pointe.

]

Aye, not that sensible a comment to be honest. Somewhere in a linguistic game was the idea that Stalin was notorious (especially at this stage of the war) for setting unrealistic targets while sat in the isolated atmosphere deep under the Kremlin. Koniev, who was never one of his favourites, grumbles long and constantly about this in his memoires

'wee bitty' is one of those odd phrases in lowland Scots that make it sometimes very different to conventional English – all it means is 'a little bit'

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I've followed your stuff over at Paradox, great to see you over here as well Loki!

and good to hear from you again

[loki100]

12 – 18 December: A Horror so Refined (turn 26)

South of the Oka, Leningrad and Bryansk Fronts continued to hit the German front. However, the nature of the fighting in the two sectors was utterly different. Formations of Leningrad Front faced a series of fierce German counterattacks as 24 Army sought to protect the flank of 1 Shock Army.



However, 1 Shock Army continued to lead the Soviet offensive as it broke through the German defensive belt and fought off counterattacks. Following sustained VVS attacks, in heavy fighting 13 Pzr Division, 1st Mountain and 112 Infantry were all driven back, despite the attempted counterattack by elements of 57 Panzer Corps




(elements of 1 Shock)

With 2 Shock now forming up as a reserve behind 1 Shock and 24 Army, Stavka committed the moblile forces of Bryansk Front on the Verkhovy-Moensk sector. 34 Army broke the German front on the sector held by 12 Corps



And elements of 43 Army exploited the gap inflicting further losses on 12 Corps and Soviet forces probed towards the Zusha and the road to Orel.




(elements of 7th Cavalry Corps trying to outflank German defenses)

Fresh formations of 19 Army were arriving in order to exploit the gap now torn in the German front.



On the long front stretching to Rostov, the fighting was more localised. SW Front made some gains on the Voronezh sector but none of South, Trans-Caucasus or the Caucasus Front could make any progress. In the Rostov sector, Stavka suspended offensive operations until reinforcements were available due to the strength of the Axis defenses.

However, Soviet air reconnaisance indicated substantial defense lines being prepared at Kharkov and Kursk, perhaps indicating the Germans were less confident in their ability to hold their current lines.

To the north of the Oka, the focus for both sides was the vital city of Kaluga. A German counterattack, led by the bulk of 57 Panzer Corps initially drove back 3 Army, but a renewed Soviet attack soon brought elements of 3 Army to the outskirts of Kaluga.



To the north of Kaluga, 13 Army inflicted heavy losses on elements of 39 Panzer Corps, even as 4 Army's formations moved to the front.

Kalinin Front continued to exert heavy pressure on the German lines west of Moscow but the attempt by 52 Army to dislodge 23 Corps at Povarovo failed with heavy losses.



In consequence, facing at least 2 Panzer Corps and hit by localised counterattacks, NW Front contented itself with occupying positions vacated by the Germans and hoping that Soviet successes around Kaluga would force the Germans to divert some of their mobile formations to contain the main Soviet offensive.



Overall, this period saw heavy losses for both sides with 70,000 Axis and 42,000 Soviet losses. German armour suffered from the weather and being committed to repeated counterattacks with almost 90 knocked out for 65 Soviet tanks, The VVS continued to pay a heavy price for its sustained air attacks in direct support of Soviet offensives as well as hitting the German reserves in an attempt to disrupt their ability to respond. 155 planes were lost for 34 Axis.

[jwolf]

Ultimately, I believe this bloody fighting favors your side since the USSR has greater reserves.  But if the fighting is this tough in December, I worry about your capacity for offensive operations later in the winter.

[Stuyvesant]

You've pushed and shoved and the Germans were forced back - in places. You lost an awful lot of men, but your manpower is up, so you can bear these losses (presumably better than the Hitlerites). Still, you're two weeks into your winter offensive and those Nazi invaders remain perilously close to Moscow... There's time left, I'm sure, but the Fascists look resilient in the face of your attacks. This has me worried about that time in the future - however close or far away it is - when the Hun war machine swings back into offensive mode.

[swkuh]

Ahhh... Loki does nice maps & AAR reports and pix no less, thanks. Enjoying your campaign. The real test is when Berlin falls and ratio of losses... your prediction?

Let's see... och, aye, and wee bitty... must be a Scots for ahh a' that...

Ooops... note the flag (rrbill is an idiot!)

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Ultimately, I believe this bloody fighting favors your side since the USSR has greater reserves. But if the fighting is this tough in December, I worry about your capacity for offensive operations later in the winter.

ORIGINAL: Stuyvesant

You've pushed and shoved and the Germans were forced back - in places. You lost an awful lot of men, but your manpower is up, so you can bear these losses (presumably better than the Hitlerites). Still, you're two weeks into your winter offensive and those Nazi invaders remain perilously close to Moscow... There's time left, I'm sure, but the Fascists look resilient in the face of your attacks. This has me worried about that time in the future - however close or far away it is - when the Hun war machine swings back into offensive mode.

Thanks for the support chums …

But yes, in effect the glorious winter offensive is now taking place on the Kaluga-Orel sector alone, with spoiling attacks to the immediate north and south. I’ll rethink the Rostov portion when the Trans-Caucasus divisions are available, especially as there are some powerful mountain units (that shed CV quickly) available.

I much prefer this mild winter rule, you don’t have the ahistorical nonsense on either side and since I started with the historical 1-1 in OOB terms the goal is not to make Stavka’s mistake and attack everywhere.

I’ll take wrecking at least one infantry army (I guess it’s the German 4 Army I am hitting hardest with elements of 2 Army – going by the unit designations in the combat reports) and mauling one panzer army.

My goal in essence, is to reduce SigUp to a single point of offensive in 1942. I suspect that is going to be horrible whether he goes for Moscow or swings south, but I know I can’t cope with 2 strong offensives, so everything is going into avoiding that if I can.

If he goes for Moscow, he will take it, but I want him to spend the entire summer doing so, if he goes south, then there are the dire warnings from Stef78s and Tarhunnas to take into account, but I can play for space and hope that attrition and logistics come to my rescue.

I have 2 more turns of all it basically on my terms (essentially axis attack cvs are 1/3), in January the Germans can attack if they want (their attack cv is 50% and defense 67%) but will pay a price in terms of attrition.

I suspect that any offensive action by me in February will be limited, trying to take advantage of the last advantages and thinking about what I want to be the start of my summer defensive lines.

ORIGINAL: rrbill

Ahhh... Loki does nice maps & AAR reports and pix no less, thanks. Enjoying your campaign. The real test is when Berlin falls and ratio of losses... your prediction?

Let's see... och, aye, and wee bitty... must be a Scots for ahh a' that...

Ooops... note the flag (rrbill is an idiot!)

Prediction – really don’t know, this is my first full campaign PBEM and it’s very different to facing the AI (not least the heavier hit on my armaments).

I think I ‘lost’ 1941, but not dramatically – the front line and overall losses are pretty realistic. Its that lodgement north of Moscow that really worries me as it makes an envelopment at Moscow a scary possibility and one I need to think carefully about.

I suspect, we’ll know when we see the first few turns of the renewed German offensive in 1942. Which is good, as it indicates the game is anything but decided.

The urge to sometimes chuck in a word or two of Scots is hard to resist. I mean how can you not describe the Red Army after the first turn as a guddle, or a bad defeat as a right stushie. However if I am so minded, if I say I’ve sent Stalin out to get the messages it doesn’t mean he’s gone to read the nightly front reports but that Stavka has run out of Vodka.

[Ike1947]

I'm new to WitE, just bought it about two weeks ago, finished the tutorial and starting - maybe re-starting - a campaign vs. the AI. Wonderful AAR, loki100, a delight to read and to ponder. Inspiring me to actually start the campaign as well as giving me more insight into the game mechanics. Thank you very much.

[gingerbread]

ORIGINAL: loki100

...
My goal in essence, is to reduce SigUp to a single point of offensive in 1942. I suspect that is going to be horrible whether he goes for Moscow or swings south, but I know I can’t cope with 2 strong offensives, so everything is going into avoiding that if I can.

If he goes for Moscow, he will take it, but I want him to spend the entire summer doing so, if he goes south, then there are the dire warnings from Stef78s and Tarhunnas to take into account, but I can play for space and hope that attrition and logistics come to my rescue.

Yeah, in '42, the Soviet Army gets a bad case of Osteoporosis, in no small part caused by the lowered training cap to NM. The Axis can Pac Man Attack the Soviet forces, leading to an at first declining and then rapidly plummeting number of formations, with corresponding drop in OOB numbers.

I believe a partial alleviation is to have plenty of refills available. This is what would normally be called reserves, but I think that calling them Refills induces a more suitable state of mind.

Refills are Rifle Brigades, plenty of them, build around now and the rest of the blizzard, that trains exp in the rear until they reach high 40's. Two of them can merge to an RD, and slowly, by managing TOE%, fill out to an RD. 100 RB extra will tie up ~500k men, but the 50 RD that they turn into could very well be what saves the year. However, RB does not belong in the front line, ever!

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Ike

I'm new to WitE, just bought it about two weeks ago, finished the tutorial and starting - maybe re-starting - a campaign vs. the AI. Wonderful AAR, loki100, a delight to read and to ponder. Inspiring me to actually start the campaign as well as giving me more insight into the game mechanics. Thank you very much.

Its a great game and one that I've taken a pragmatic approach to coming to terms with. Am currently concentrating more on the German side and really focussing just on how to manage the movement points for the Panzers rather than anything else (which in turn gives me a better feel for what you can on the defense with the Red Army).

Glad you find the AAR useful, I must admit I find writing stuff down and then looking back over previous turns really improves my own understanding.

The AI is great, but this game really shines as PBEM.

ORIGINAL: gingerbread


Yeah, in '42, the Soviet Army gets a bad case of Osteoporosis, in no small part caused by the lowered training cap to NM. The Axis can Pac Man Attack the Soviet forces, leading to an at first declining and then rapidly plummeting number of formations, with corresponding drop in OOB numbers.

I believe a partial alleviation is to have plenty of refills available. This is what would normally be called reserves, but I think that calling them Refills induces a more suitable state of mind.

Refills are Rifle Brigades, plenty of them, build around now and the rest of the blizzard, that trains exp in the rear until they reach high 40's. Two of them can merge to an RD, and slowly, by managing TOE%, fill out to an RD. 100 RB extra will tie up ~500k men, but the 50 RD that they turn into could very well be what saves the year. However, RB does not belong in the front line, ever!

In the light of this post and the larger discussion about 1942, I've been doing a lot of thinking about the problems and ways to avoid the worst outcomes. I think I have to assume that on one sector or the other, my initial front line armies will be shredded, and if so, ensure that what is lost is not my best formations.

Then I need to use attrition and friction to wear out the Germans before things become critical, but equally try to be active where they are standing on the defense. So I agree, I need a lot of units, to fill out the rear and replace the initial losses.

With this in mind, the next post is a Stavka document that at the time was hidden from Stalin (he was too busy ordering the immediate capture of Smolensk and Leningrad) but formed the basis of Soviet strategic thinking about the likely dynamics of the 1942 campaign.

[loki100]

Since this game has unfortunately stalled (but hopefully will carry on) I thought it might be interesting to put together a discussion of options for 1942. I'm doing this partly to test out some ideas I have but also in the light of the discussions in other AARs and on the main forum.

I'll preface this by setting out my underlying assumptions:

1) I have reduced the Axis to the point where they can only go over to the offensive in one sector. If they can manage an offensive at Moscow and in the south then there is no way that I can survive.
2) This offensive will either be to take Moscow or to try and clean up in the south.

Obviously the only clue I will really have is the location of the Panzer Armies and if 3 are in the Tula-Voronezh sector (as historically) it will not be clear what the real target is.

At the moment, I am doing a lot of damage to, I think, 4 Army and either 1 or 3 Panzer (not sure which is operating south of the Oka). Another Panzer army is the front line north of Moscow, one is in reserve at Kursk and I think another is around Rzhev (hard to tell as I all I can see is corps designations in the battle reports).



I think there are 3 variations in terms of a 1942 strategy

The first is the threat of a pincer attack on Moscow, so I assume 2 Pzr Armies to the north and 2 to the south. The goal being an encirclement rather than having to fight for the city.

The second is an infantry offensive directly at Moscow and an attempt at a Panzer offensive to the south aimed at Ryazan-Murom.

The first is clearly the more effective but may only be feasible if all 4 Pzr Armies are in relatively decent shape. The second assumes that 3 need to be concentrated on one axis of advance.

For a southern offensive, my assumption is of a repeat of the operational approach used in some recent AARs. Relatively small scale encirclements designed to reduce the Red Army to the point where it is no longer a threat.

Worth repeating some changes we have made to the usual 100% settings. We are both at 90% for logistics and Soviet morale is at 95%. I think that means there is more risk of the Germans coming up short of their targets and of course the Red Army will be a bit weaker than in some other games.

If I suspect either a pincer at Moscow or a southern offensive, my view is that the most effective strategy is to put weaker units into the front lines and try and hold back any of my more competent units 5-6 hexes back. This should both minimise the loss of these in pockets and increase the chance of being able to hit over-exposed formations.


(this shows why I think an infantry assault plus 3 Pzr armies to the south is the more likely choice)

If the likely plan is is an infantry assault on Moscow plus an armoured attack from the south, it might be better to leave some very good units in the substantial fortifications west of Moscow so as to ensure the battle takes most of the campaign season.

This of course means that a good strategy in one instance could cost me the bulk of West and Kalinin Fronts in a huge pocket in another. At the moment, the German Panzer armies seem to be deployed for an attempt at a pincer as 2 are located north of the city and 2 to the south.

To cope, I think I need the formations to do three things.

First, whereever the Germans are weak, be able to exert some pressure. So if they go south, an attack in the Moscow sector or if they attack Moscow, an offensive in the Ukraine. Second, have enough units to fill out a decent defensive belt without tieing up my better formations. Third the capacity to replace the inevitable losses so that I can continue to keep the best units as a threat in being, rather have to commit them to the defense.

That takes me to the building blocks I need.

In terms of stocks, I seem to have 67% more supplies than I notionally need (300,000 vs 180,000) and about the same for vehicles (200,000 vs 140,000).



Armaments is a worry, but I do seem to be slowly catching up (last 2 turns I have added 1,200 and 3,000 artillery pieces). Manpower at 300,000 is not great but not a worry either.

My current OOB and known reinforcements to the end of May is:



Loadings for Army and Front



Voronezh Front actually arrives in early June)

Numbers in brackets are after the rise in Front capacity and drop in Army capacity. In effect that will mean I have pretty much the right number of units assigned. So any increase will need more armies and to use Stavka.

Given the addition of the equivalent of 85 or so divisions, then I need to think of at least 5 more army HQ to be raised.


Support Units

I need to be careful about what I raise so as not to worsen my armaments position but do need more artillery (of different types) and independent tank formations (once my T-34 production recovers from the evacuations).

To cover the front from Kalinin to the Don is 70 hexes. My estimate is this needs 2.5 divisions per front line and then 2 rows of 1. So 330 divisions really just to make up the initial line of defense. I then need two more lines filling out and clusters at key locations (I want to cover every feasible river crossing).

Not sure how many this adds up to, but the 450 (rifle divisions and brigades already scheduled) is too little. I have the manpower to raise around 30 more (assuming 10,000 per division, average manpower is currently 8,000 per rifle division)) and of course will need about 600,000 to fill out the returning shells. I'll raise these mostly as brigades for now as that allows me to cover more ground in the deep reserve sectors.

In terms of Tank Corps, 90 brigades is theoretically 30 corps but each needs 1000 trucks compared to 250 in each brigade (ie needs a fresh 250). If I went for 12 tank corps, that is 3,000 of my 'spare' 60,000 trucks which seems to be safe. Those plus 15-17 cavalry corps become my mobile reserve. And critically, have to be deployed so they cannot be pocketed.

Given that I think I need to start building multiple lines, most of the existing rifle brigades will not be made into divisions until I am more confident where the main threat is likely to develop.

In terms of my existing Fronts, 3 stand out.

Kalinin has a number of divisions with a decent number of wins and high morale. If the Germans attack Moscow directly, it will absorb the bulk of the fighting. If there is any threat of encirclement, then it needs to be pulled into the second lines and replaced with Moscow District forces.

Leningrad has 2 Shock Armies and another (24A) well equipped with support units. Bryansk has the bulk of my cavalry. So again, these two need to be pulled back to the rear as they are too valuable to risk in the early stages.

That means the bulk of the front will need to be covered by North West, West, South West, South and the 2 Caucasus Fronts. Ideally, the 3 MD that are deep in reserve can command all the various strategic reserve formations.

[Gabriel B.]

I would build historical number of tank corps , build them sleek 2/3 of Toe so they only use 900 trucks, but still retain
the high mobility. The truck situation gets out of hand in late 1942 but with the arival of lend and lease in 1943
things will improve.

As for cavalry , the soviet lost half of them in 1942 and did not rebuild any , the ones that survive are big drain in armaments
as it is , they do not have either the tank corps mobility or rifle corps staying power.

[bigbaba]

amazing presentation mate.

about tank and cavalery corps:

thats a dilema for the russian player in 42. tank corps initial TOE is too weak to reopen pockets or counter attack in 42 and as gabe said cavalery corps lose power from 42 on. so the ability of the russians to survive 42 "pazner ball" seperates the good players from the average ones. 42 is when a good playing german player sets only tactical aims in 42 instead of strategic aims and concentrates all mobile forces in one sector and the russians have weak tank/cavalery forces and no rifle and mechanizied corps available.

[Gabriel B.]

The 1943 cavalry corps is a monster, 333 cavalry squads +135 tanks, far stronger than any panzer division the germans have early war , but extremly expensive to keep 18 corps in the field .

[jwolf]

Loki, thanks for the summary and insight into STAVKA strategic planning for the next year.  I'll be very interested to read the analogous planning from the German side once SigUp gets back into the game.