Russo-Ukraine war

[lion_of_judah]

Estonian OOB once mobilized. Question is, I'm thinking they will not have time to fully mobilize this force once Russia invades. From this article they have modernized their army and they have equipment from Finland and France. Their peacetime army maybe a road bump, but this will not allow time for full mobilization of forces without direct NATO intervention

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maav%C3%A4gi

[Telumar]

ORIGINAL: lion_of_judah

No EU/NATO intervention [...] and by this time Russia is down to a marginal defeat. So it appears Lithuania will have too be attacked in order for a Russian victory

From a technical perspective, yes. But regarding realism/plausability, needlessly attacking a NATO memeber is out of question. Better rework the VPs/victory conditions.

[lion_of_judah]

ORIGINAL: Telumar

ORIGINAL: lion_of_judah

No EU/NATO intervention [...] and by this time Russia is down to a marginal defeat. So it appears Lithuania will have too be attacked in order for a Russian victory

From a technical perspective, yes. But regarding realism/plausability, needlessly attacking a NATO memeber is out of question. Better rework the VPs/victory conditions.

I'm all for reworking them, but I'm out of ideas on just how to do so, so if anyone has ideas I'm all ears

[rfrizz]

ORIGINAL: lion_of_judah

I've decided to add Estonia as this will help in realism. Estonia doesn't have much of an army so that will be a cake walk, and as for the EU intervention I'm thinking less than Lithuania, probably around 45-50% chance.

I don't know if I have missed or misread anything in your posts, but...

Does your model of EU/NATO intervention if Russia attacks both Lithuania and Estonia treat the probability of intervention as more than the sums (intersections, really) of probabilities of attacks of either?

I have forgotten a lot of probability, so bear with me.

Ex: If Lithuania will result in a 65% chance, while Estonia will result in a 45% chance... Russia attacks Estonian, but EU/NATO does nothing. If Russia later attacks Lithuania, there will be more than a 65% chance of intervention.

In other words, they are not independent events.

[lion_of_judah]

how it is setup now is Estonia if attacked there is a 45% chance of NATO/EU intervention ( this is still too high in my book), if that happens then the Lithuania event is canceled. If not, then the next chance of European intervention will happen when Russia attacks Lithuania, then there is a 65% chance of intervention. If Europe still stays neutral, then Ukraine will eventually lose as well Estonia and Lithuania

[Telumar]

If you're still working on this the following might be of interest:

https://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/U ... IEFING.pdf

[lion_of_judah]

thank you. That is very helpful

[SMK-at-work]

There are a number of options you can presuppose - such as some weeks of tensions allowing partial or full mobilizations.

I can't see NATO not intervening if any of the Baltic States are invaded - they are members, NATO is looking at stationing troops in them, and if NATO did not intervene is would be a major crisis for the membership - especially the other Eastern European members...and probably a "green light" for Russia to do what it wanted.

The Baltic States would only be a political target fo Russia - scoring "bownie points' for "saving" the "Russian population" there and a bit of a sideline to hte seizure of Eastern Ukraine.......so a Russian player should have a choice whether to invade and have NATO involved or not. It would probably take NATO some time yto get troops to them - so perhaps the russian has to decide if he can seize them by coup-de-main before that happens.

[dundas61]

Hi lion_of_judah,

Is it at all possible to get a copy of what you've created so far for this scenario please?

Thanks.

[lion_of_judah]

sure, will have to locate the file first.

[lion_of_judah]

I have found the scenario file, so shoot me an email and I will send it to you. Thanks