OT: Ukrainian crisis

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Amoral
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RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis

Post by Amoral »

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

ORIGINAL: USS America

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

Here's a question more in keeping with the nature of the forum , strategy versus politics. IF NATO , or the USA , or the western powers DID agree to oppose this action by Russia, short of a nuclear strike , what could they do? [&:]

Steve, the answer to this question (which is a very relevant question) is 1) lose or 2) nothing. It's way beyond our (US/NATO) effective reach. Every NATO division could be put on the ground there, and outnumbered 10 - 1 in a matter of days, given that it is in Russia's front yard.

The only options in this situation are diplomatic (likely to be ignored by Russia) and economic (likely to take quite a long while before they become effective).



Since no one else has recommended positive , active steps , let me take a swing at the ball.

If I were POTUS , I'd...
1) dispatch two ABM equipped aegis cruisers/destroyers to Polish ports as a temporary "missile defense shield". Then begin immediate re-opening of a permanent in country shield. Open this to other countries.
2) Request NATO to offer temporary membership to affected countries in the area and begins talks toward permanent membership. Offer a mutual assistance/defense treaty to the Ukraine.
3) Extend an invitation to Putin to visit DC and discuss "currant mutual matters".
4) Say nothing specific to the press. DO say something like "Russia will do whatever Russia must do. And we will do whatever we must do". Nothing specific , nothing threatening , yet in itself very challenging. Basically saying "We won't tell you what to do. BUT you won't tell us what to do either".
5) Do nothing official to screw up economic relations or trade with Russia. But since the USA is a big , inefficient, bureaucratic democracy , "paperwork confusion happens". [:D]

And to totally drive Putin nuts , offer him full NATO membership and a mutual defense treaty with the USA. To further "gore his ox" , attach it to a "most favored trade status" with the US.

How's this guys? [:D]

You'd offer a mutual defense treaty with Ukraine? You know Russian troops are active in the Crimea? Ukraine would be justified in calling for the US to mobilize if there was a treaty in place. What would you do to honour your new treaty?

If you aren't willing to fight Russia on the ground I do not think it is a good idea to bluff. Putin will just laugh and let internal politics take down the president for having his bluff called.
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Lecivius
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RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis

Post by Lecivius »

My 2 cents aligns with the Bullwinkle’s recent article.  This has nothing to do with Sevastopol, or ethnic Russian indigents.  Its resources.  And if that does not ring a bell in this forum, it won't anywhere.
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koniu
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RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis

Post by koniu »

recent news

Black Sea Fleet commander Aleksandr Bitko just give ultimatum to Ukrainian troops in Crimea.
Or they surrender in next 12h (4AM GMT +1 time) or Russian troops will start assault
"Only the Dead Have Seen the End of War"
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MrKane
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RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis

Post by MrKane »

ITAR-TASS: 3500 Russian soldiers of Baltic Fleet in Kaliningrad has just began training exercise of amphibious operation ...
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offenseman
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RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis

Post by offenseman »

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve


Since no one else has recommended positive , active steps , let me take a swing at the ball.

If I were POTUS , I'd...
1) dispatch two ABM equipped aegis cruisers/destroyers to Polish ports as a temporary "missile defense shield". Then begin immediate re-opening of a permanent in country shield. Open this to other countries.
2) Request NATO to offer temporary membership to affected countries in the area and begins talks toward permanent membership. Offer a mutual assistance/defense treaty to the Ukraine.
3) Extend an invitation to Putin to visit DC and discuss "currant mutual matters".
4) Say nothing specific to the press. DO say something like "Russia will do whatever Russia must do. And we will do whatever we must do". Nothing specific , nothing threatening , yet in itself very challenging. Basically saying "We won't tell you what to do. BUT you won't tell us what to do either".
5) Do nothing official to screw up economic relations or trade with Russia. But since the USA is a big , inefficient, bureaucratic democracy , "paperwork confusion happens". [:D]

And to totally drive Putin nuts , offer him full NATO membership and a mutual defense treaty with the USA. To further "gore his ox" , attach it to a "most favored trade status" with the US.

How's this guys? [:D]

Sounds like a great plan and maybe the "more flexibility" POTUS spoke of to Medvedev during the March 2012 missile defense talks is something along those lines. [;)]
Sometimes things said in Nitwit sound very different in English.
mind_messing
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RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis

Post by mind_messing »

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I also did some reading on the Black Sea and the Montreux Convention. I found out some of what I thought I knew was wrong, and there's more to the pact than I had known.

The Black Sea is probably the most restricted international body of water in the world. The Convention is one of the oldest continuous sea-control treaties in the world, and was observed even by Hitler when he was in a life-and-death struggle with the USSR.

Bottom line, the USN cannot operate carriers in the Black Sea. It cannot operate submarines there. Even if it could it is impossible to covertly enter the Black Sea. The tonnage restrictions on surface combatants in the Convention are extremely restrictive and the permitted time-on-station just a few weeks. Getting into the Black Sea, past and through the center of Istanbul, is one of the most difficult navigations in the world.

Russia, as a riparian power, has much more freedom to use the Black Sea militarily than any NATO power except Turkey. Power projection into Ukraine from the sea is really not an option.

Anyway, it's a naval subject. Google it and read away. Really interesting body of history.

That really is the crux of the poor position the West is in. Unless they form a fairly united NATO (unlikely!), there's nothing the US can do to posture other than blow diplomatic gusts. No carriers, no power projection.

No naval power projection. Lots of routes in from NATO nations such as Poland.

None of which seem to be in any rush to form another US-led "Coalition of the Willing", after all, they're the ones who buy Russia's gas. Besides Polish troops preparing for the worst, there's been zero sign of any co-ordinated NATO involvement.
It's not a NATO matter unless NATO makes it one. ( See "Libya.") I do not expect they will unless fighting came toward the border of a NATO country. If western Ukraine forces, fighting Russia, asked for supplies, logistics, intel, and medical would NATO respond with a yes? I don't know. I don't think it would be a simple on/off switch situation.

NATO simply won't lift a finger for the Ukraine. There's been plenty of governments toppled by the Russians, and NATO didn't do anything. Now, with NATO members more divided than they were in the past (no more Soviet Union or troops in East Germany threatening to pour down the Fulda Gap), there's no desire to intervene.

The only real move NATO can make is unified economic sanctions, which will have no immediate impact on Russian policy.

The Lybia comparison isn't exactly fair either. Airstrikes against the 1960's era forces of a crazy dictator facing widespread is pretty tame compared to war with one of the most formidable armies on the planet.

mind_messing
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RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis

Post by mind_messing »

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

ORIGINAL: USS America

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

Here's a question more in keeping with the nature of the forum , strategy versus politics. IF NATO , or the USA , or the western powers DID agree to oppose this action by Russia, short of a nuclear strike , what could they do? [&:]

Steve, the answer to this question (which is a very relevant question) is 1) lose or 2) nothing. It's way beyond our (US/NATO) effective reach. Every NATO division could be put on the ground there, and outnumbered 10 - 1 in a matter of days, given that it is in Russia's front yard.

The only options in this situation are diplomatic (likely to be ignored by Russia) and economic (likely to take quite a long while before they become effective).



Since no one else has recommended positive , active steps , let me take a swing at the ball.

If I were POTUS , I'd...
1) dispatch two ABM equipped aegis cruisers/destroyers to Polish ports as a temporary "missile defense shield". Then begin immediate re-opening of a permanent in country shield. Open this to other countries.
2) Request NATO to offer temporary membership to affected countries in the area and begins talks toward permanent membership. Offer a mutual assistance/defense treaty to the Ukraine.
3) Extend an invitation to Putin to visit DC and discuss "currant mutual matters".
4) Say nothing specific to the press. DO say something like "Russia will do whatever Russia must do. And we will do whatever we must do". Nothing specific , nothing threatening , yet in itself very challenging. Basically saying "We won't tell you what to do. BUT you won't tell us what to do either".
5) Do nothing official to screw up economic relations or trade with Russia. But since the USA is a big , inefficient, bureaucratic democracy , "paperwork confusion happens". [:D]

And to totally drive Putin nuts , offer him full NATO membership and a mutual defense treaty with the USA. To further "gore his ox" , attach it to a "most favored trade status" with the US.

How's this guys? [:D]

At which point, Putin accepts NATO membership and the mutual defence treaty, carries on in the Ukraine regardless, and shouts loudly to the press of how "Russia and America now have a common understanding on European affairs". NATO members promptly riot in collective disbelief at American stupidity and the integrity of the NATO Charter is utterly undermined.

Congratulations, America has just thrown away seventy years of work building up mutual defence in Europe.
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AW1Steve
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RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis

Post by AW1Steve »

ORIGINAL: Amoral

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

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Steve, the answer to this question (which is a very relevant question) is 1) lose or 2) nothing. It's way beyond our (US/NATO) effective reach. Every NATO division could be put on the ground there, and outnumbered 10 - 1 in a matter of days, given that it is in Russia's front yard.

The only options in this situation are diplomatic (likely to be ignored by Russia) and economic (likely to take quite a long while before they become effective).



Since no one else has recommended positive , active steps , let me take a swing at the ball.

If I were POTUS , I'd...
1) dispatch two ABM equipped aegis cruisers/destroyers to Polish ports as a temporary "missile defense shield". Then begin immediate re-opening of a permanent in country shield. Open this to other countries.
2) Request NATO to offer temporary membership to affected countries in the area and begins talks toward permanent membership. Offer a mutual assistance/defense treaty to the Ukraine.
3) Extend an invitation to Putin to visit DC and discuss "currant mutual matters".
4) Say nothing specific to the press. DO say something like "Russia will do whatever Russia must do. And we will do whatever we must do". Nothing specific , nothing threatening , yet in itself very challenging. Basically saying "We won't tell you what to do. BUT you won't tell us what to do either".
5) Do nothing official to screw up economic relations or trade with Russia. But since the USA is a big , inefficient, bureaucratic democracy , "paperwork confusion happens". [:D]

And to totally drive Putin nuts , offer him full NATO membership and a mutual defense treaty with the USA. To further "gore his ox" , attach it to a "most favored trade status" with the US.

How's this guys? [:D]

You'd offer a mutual defense treaty with Ukraine? You know Russian troops are active in the Crimea? Ukraine would be justified in calling for the US to mobilize if there was a treaty in place. What would you do to honour your new treaty?

If you aren't willing to fight Russia on the ground I do not think it is a good idea to bluff. Putin will just laugh and let internal politics take down the president for having his bluff called.


And what about the other two aspects of war? We may not be able to fight them on ground but in the air? On and under the sea? And with the entire US STRATCOM targeting their weapons at mother Russia? Laugh Putin ,laugh. But doesn't diplomacy sound better than MAD? [&:]
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AW1Steve
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RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis

Post by AW1Steve »

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

ORIGINAL: USS America




Steve, the answer to this question (which is a very relevant question) is 1) lose or 2) nothing. It's way beyond our (US/NATO) effective reach. Every NATO division could be put on the ground there, and outnumbered 10 - 1 in a matter of days, given that it is in Russia's front yard.

The only options in this situation are diplomatic (likely to be ignored by Russia) and economic (likely to take quite a long while before they become effective).



Since no one else has recommended positive , active steps , let me take a swing at the ball.

If I were POTUS , I'd...
1) dispatch two ABM equipped aegis cruisers/destroyers to Polish ports as a temporary "missile defense shield". Then begin immediate re-opening of a permanent in country shield. Open this to other countries.
2) Request NATO to offer temporary membership to affected countries in the area and begins talks toward permanent membership. Offer a mutual assistance/defense treaty to the Ukraine.
3) Extend an invitation to Putin to visit DC and discuss "currant mutual matters".
4) Say nothing specific to the press. DO say something like "Russia will do whatever Russia must do. And we will do whatever we must do". Nothing specific , nothing threatening , yet in itself very challenging. Basically saying "We won't tell you what to do. BUT you won't tell us what to do either".
5) Do nothing official to screw up economic relations or trade with Russia. But since the USA is a big , inefficient, bureaucratic democracy , "paperwork confusion happens". [:D]

And to totally drive Putin nuts , offer him full NATO membership and a mutual defense treaty with the USA. To further "gore his ox" , attach it to a "most favored trade status" with the US.

How's this guys? [:D]

At which point, Putin accepts NATO membership and the mutual defence treaty, carries on in the Ukraine regardless, and shouts loudly to the press of how "Russia and America now have a common understanding on European affairs". NATO members promptly riot in collective disbelief at American stupidity and the integrity of the NATO Charter is utterly undermined.

Congratulations, America has just thrown away seventy years of work building up mutual defence in Europe.


NATO treaties are binding and restrictive. While it provides defense , it also limits ability of it's members to "do something stupid". A good example has been it's success in restraining Turkey and Greece. The big word in NATO is "COLLECTIVE" security. Putin would have to abrogate the treaty 1st to attack anyone. Of course , he'd never join NATO at any price. Offering the USSR membership in NATO was one of Regan's more inspired jabs at the USSR. [:D][:D]
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MrKane
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RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis

Post by MrKane »

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

ORIGINAL: USS America




Steve, the answer to this question (which is a very relevant question) is 1) lose or 2) nothing. It's way beyond our (US/NATO) effective reach. Every NATO division could be put on the ground there, and outnumbered 10 - 1 in a matter of days, given that it is in Russia's front yard.

The only options in this situation are diplomatic (likely to be ignored by Russia) and economic (likely to take quite a long while before they become effective).



Since no one else has recommended positive , active steps , let me take a swing at the ball.

If I were POTUS , I'd...
1) dispatch two ABM equipped aegis cruisers/destroyers to Polish ports as a temporary "missile defense shield". Then begin immediate re-opening of a permanent in country shield. Open this to other countries.
2) Request NATO to offer temporary membership to affected countries in the area and begins talks toward permanent membership. Offer a mutual assistance/defense treaty to the Ukraine.
3) Extend an invitation to Putin to visit DC and discuss "currant mutual matters".
4) Say nothing specific to the press. DO say something like "Russia will do whatever Russia must do. And we will do whatever we must do". Nothing specific , nothing threatening , yet in itself very challenging. Basically saying "We won't tell you what to do. BUT you won't tell us what to do either".
5) Do nothing official to screw up economic relations or trade with Russia. But since the USA is a big , inefficient, bureaucratic democracy , "paperwork confusion happens". [:D]

And to totally drive Putin nuts , offer him full NATO membership and a mutual defense treaty with the USA. To further "gore his ox" , attach it to a "most favored trade status" with the US.

How's this guys? [:D]

At which point, Putin accepts NATO membership and the mutual defence treaty, carries on in the Ukraine regardless, and shouts loudly to the press of how "Russia and America now have a common understanding on European affairs". NATO members promptly riot in collective disbelief at American stupidity and the integrity of the NATO Charter is utterly undermined.

Congratulations, America has just thrown away seventy years of work building up mutual defence in Europe.

NATO membership will not do any good. Putin is building empire, he needs "the enemy", otherwise his people may refuse to pay price for his dream.
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warspite1
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RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis

Post by warspite1 »

I think this is a great discussion, although personally I think you are being a bit soft. I would bomb the B****** back to the stone age.
Now Maitland, now's your time!

Duke of Wellington to 1st Guards Brigade - Waterloo 18 June 1815
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warspite1
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RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis

Post by warspite1 »

ORIGINAL: warspite1

I think this is a great discussion, although personally I think you are being a bit soft. I would bomb the B****** back to the stone age.
warspite1

Well that's taken care of the Scottish problem - right, what about them Commie Bastards?
Now Maitland, now's your time!

Duke of Wellington to 1st Guards Brigade - Waterloo 18 June 1815
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Lecivius
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RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis

Post by Lecivius »

"otherwise his people may refuse to pay price for his dream"
 
This is not his dream.  While I doubt the Russian people are thinking 'empire', they are just now coming out of a completely wrecked economy.  The Russian people are a fiercely proud people.  And with very good reason.  The fall & breakup of the Soviet Union, with the resultant economic & military loss, was a stupendous blow to their pride.  Not their ego, their pride.  They are recovering, and flexing their power with what they see as is their right.  We cannot think objectively on their actions until we put ourselves in their shoes, and go back a generation or 2 in doing so.
 
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warspite1
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RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis

Post by warspite1 »

Hold on Which Commie Bastards? The Ukrainians or the Russkies? I'm confused - guess that's why I can't play complex games.
Now Maitland, now's your time!

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JocMeister
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RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis

Post by JocMeister »

I guess there is no backing down now for Putin. He has thrown the dice.

Russian military gives Ukrainian forces in Crimea until 03:00 GMT on Tuesday to surrender or face assault, Ukrainian officials say.
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AW1Steve
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RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis

Post by AW1Steve »

You know guys , it's easy to be critical. But as a young NCO I was taught ,among many other things , never run down a plan without having suggestions to fix it , or have a plan of your own. I freely admit my plan has flaws , and that I'm no strategic or political genius , but I threw these ideas out off the top of my head to promote serious discussion on a strategic/political view of the issue. If the best you can come up with is "we're all screwed and gonna die" then I've got to say that I'd very much like to take you'all on at a PBEM! [:D][:D][:D]

As my very earth grandmother was often heard to say "use it or git off the pot!"[:D][:D][:D](actually my grandmother was MUCH more earthy that forum rules allow , so obviously it's not a correct quote, but you get the drift!)[:D]

SO WHAT WOULD YOU GENIUSES DO? [&:][:D] You are all supposed to be military game players with some idea of how the world operates...... Come up with suggestions for what you think might be done! Let's discuss them! Who's at fault , what's the history, these are fascinating , BUT this is history in the making! Or does your military genius only work via 20/20 hindsight? [&:][:D][:D][:D]

So give us your ideas! I double-dog-dare-you!!!!![:D][:D][:D]
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AW1Steve
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RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis

Post by AW1Steve »

ORIGINAL: warspite1

I think this is a great discussion, although personally I think you are being a bit soft. I would bomb the B****** back to the stone age.


Definitely the direct approach! [:D] Very Lemayian of you. [:D]
JocMeister
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RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis

Post by JocMeister »

Warspite, your attempts to get get this thread locked with your comments are quite childish. Just go back to "your" forum will you?
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RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis

Post by AW1Steve »

As they said in Dr. Strangelove , "gentlemen , you can't fight in here! This is the war-room!"[:-][:D]

Come on guys! Play nice. Or take a time out! [:-]
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warspite1
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RE: OT: Ukrainian crisis

Post by warspite1 »

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Warspite, your attempts to get get this thread locked with your comments are quite childish. Just go back to "your" forum will you?
warspite1

This is my forum as much as yours pal. I vote we get all the unemployed, round em up, put them in the army and invade Russia. Hey we won't win the war but it will cure the unemployment problem.
Now Maitland, now's your time!

Duke of Wellington to 1st Guards Brigade - Waterloo 18 June 1815
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