OT: Ukrainian crisis

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: warspite1

I´m quite sure the moderators will close down this thread if they deem it to break the rules or get out of hand. So far there has been only one useless/silly/troll comment which was ignored by all.

I´m glad the moderators have left this open and it would be a shame if you managed to get it closed just because of envy or whatever your motivations are. There is no need for an "outside police" or a crusade just because a similar thread was closed in "your" forum.

Just leave it to the moderators. Okay?

warspite1

Envy? Behave. Its called fairness and equality. Read the Scottish Independence thread. It never got out of hand, it was polite and civilised. But it was closed as it was against the rules. I just want the rules applied fairly. Why is that difficult for you to understand?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Icedawg

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Icedawg

From what I've read, the people of Crimea want to leave the Ukraine and join Russia. Solution - let them. Self-determination and all that stuff.

Think of it his way. Suppose that Maine wanted to leave the US and join Canada. As long as the Canadians are willing to take them, they should be allowed to go. No need for military action. Just a simple vote by the people involved. Isn't that the whole principle behind democracy?

Think of it this way. What if Texas wanted to become a republic again, go it alone? Do you think the US would allow that? With the resources, positioning and size of Texas?

Could the Ukraine exist economically without the Crimea? I don't know, but that area is both strategically and economically important to it, and the area that they're showing on the news that's more Russian speaking and aligned politically with Russia is about 1/3 or more of the country, not just Crimea. Pretty tough to just let that go for the Ukraine.

I'd say if the Texans want to separate, then they should be allowed to do so. I've never met a separatist movement I would not support. I guess that's because my country was founded on a separatist movement. Americans would have to be complete hypocrites to not be supportive of people trying to free themselves from governments they don't accept.

As an Englishman though, I bet you see things a bit differently. For a couple hundred years or so, your nation fought freedom movements tooth and nail (and it looks like you've got another one in the works with the Scots at it again).

Born: Portland, OR USA - 1971

On one side of the family my ancestors came to Jamestown in 1650, on another, my grandmother was born in Norway and moved to Minnesota at age 4.

If you think 'Americans would be hypocrites to not be supportive of people trying to free themselves from governments they don't accept' I'd reccommend some reading. If it's in our interests we're all behind them. If not ...

My point being, the Crimea has incredible importance to both sides there, Russia and the Ukraine. You can't use Maine as a credible example, but even if you did, I don't think the US would willingly let it go either. Sorry.

[CaptDave]

My mother is currently reading a Tom Clancy novel -- I don't remember which one, but it's one of his last (if not the last) -- and she says this is all playing out exactly as it does in the book, almost as if Putin had read it. She's sometimes given to a bit of exaggeration, but I still find this a scary coincidence (on the other hand, in hindsight it wasn't that hard to predict).

[LoBaron]

ORIGINAL: warspite1
Re the above I think quite the reverse is true. Discussing WWII or the Cold War is historical and thus allowed.

If you care to re-read my post, I wrote 'compare' and not 'discuss'. Comparing WWII or the cold war to the Ukrainian crisis inm an emotionalized way like we have already seen in this thread. It does obviously not apply, and it potentially leads to the usual generalized political statements already posted.


Crimea is not Maine, it is not like ´31, ´35, ´38, ´39 all over again, its not Hungary ´56, yadda, yadda.

[Encircled]

But there are similarities, whether people like it or not.

Will the west do anything?

Probably not

Should the west do something?

Probably

[wdolson]

I've been away most of the day and this thread has spun up. This thread has been drifting over the line a few times.

We do discuss current events here, but while I know it's tough to leave the politics out of this, can we try to do so? Political opinions can and do range all over the map and expressing them can generate a lot of ill will, especially in the US right now. This is probably why Matrix discourages modern political discussions.

Bill

[JocMeister]

Thank you Bill for allowing this (for now).

Recent news is that the the UN is sending Jan Eliasson (deputy Secretary General) to the Ukraine to be UNs "eyes on the ground" and report back to the UN. Also according to Russian sources the Russian Foreign minister Larvov have spoken to China and received their backing in the conflict.

EDIT:

Also Swedish defense analyst Stefan Ring deems any western interference as highly unlikely. He states economical reasons for this. Germany for example is importing over 50% of their natural gas from Russia. Many of the European nations are reliant on Russian oil like Sweden and Denmark. The EU in general is dependent on Russian oil and gas which means many EU/Nato nations will object to going on a collision course against Russia.

He summarized his analysis with the closing statement: "No European nation will go to war against Russia for Ukraine".

Personally I think he is correct. In today's world only one thing is certain. Money rules.

[GreyJoy]

Letting aside the moral considerations, I do believe there is not an aprioristic "right" or "wrong" when it comes down to geo-politics.
This time Russia, for many of the reasons already pointed out here, has the upper hand. Nobody, not even the US, can do anything here. Just like Russia (or China) could do anything to prevent the western interventions in Iraq or Afganistan after 9/11.
Also I do believe that it's a bit naïve to talk about "democracy" or "rights" when it comes down to these matters. It's just power, as it has always been.

Just to put things in prespective... leave alone the 20th century... let's go back to the 3rd century BC... Do you remember Saguntum? when Cartago claimed the city because it was inside the Ebrus line and Rome pretended it was her ally and considered the aggression as an act of war? Who was right of the two?
I'd say both of them, cause both of them were seeking their interests, which is what the human kind has been doing for 100k years now. Plain and simple

[Encircled]

Nothing wrong with being "naive" when it comes to principles

What happens if Ukraine decides to fight?

Everybody just stand aside and see what happens?

The list of examples where that has proved to be a disaster are quite compelling

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

Nothing wrong with being "naive" when it comes to principles

What happens if Ukraine decides to fight?

Everybody just stand aside and see what happens?

The list of examples where that has proved to be a disaster are quite compelling

Most likely everyone will stand back a watch yes. Money talks and the EU/Nato needs Russian oil and gas.

[Chris21wen]

ORIGINAL: castor troy

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: General Patton

Question is, what will the rest of the world do? will they sit on there hands or do something? I think the new government will need to ask for some kind of help. but what kind?[:(]
GP

Lots of political sanctions already taking place. But most experts seem to agree that any military interference from the outside is extremely unlikely.

Although both Nato, Russia(!) and the EU has guaranteed Ukrainian sovereignty in exchange for the dismantlement of its nuclear weapons...

which is one of the (understandable) reasons why other nuclear powers won't give up their arsenal. You could never trust anyone and you can't do so in future when it comes down to diplomacy, sadly that is.
And a nuclear arsenal seems to still be the ace you should have in your stack.

Any anybody who thinks they aren't is deluding themselves.

It is unfortunate that most third world countries, ex-communist and ex-dictatorship do not know how democracy, voting and freedom of speech works. Eventually they all seem to resort to violence to try and get what one faction or the other wants, and I includes Ukraine's current 'government' in this.

[Encircled]

*Message to the world from the West*

Just in case you needed any more confirmation about our duplicity and our interests in you being solely related to what natural resources we can get from you, we are letting Russia overrun the Ukraine because we are worried about the future of our gas supplies.

Yours

The countries that tell you to "Do what we say, not what we do".

Ok, slightly tongue in cheek but you can see how it looks to the rest of the world.

[JocMeister]

Pretty much yes. Bullwinkle linked a to a very interesting article on the first page of the thread.

[LoBaron]

Part of what makes the situation so difficult to control is that Sevastopol still is the main base for the Russsian Black Sea Fleet, and close to 60% of the population of the Krim peninsula are Russians. This combined is the major reason why the situation escalated so quickly there.

Paired with the fact that about 16%-17% of the total population of the Ukraine are ethnical Russians, and probably 1/3rd of the population are decidedly pro-Russia, the current conflict sadly has the potential for civil war, with or without Russian involvement.

[aciddrinker]

TBH is hard to understand for many people whats going on do the fact that they dont have any idea about history of Russia/USSR and central Europe. If i good remember Crimea was added to Ukrainian SSR in 1956. Now do the fact that nationalist at Ukraine done Coup d'état, Russia just take what thinks that is own by them(they already sized Crimea). Puttin will not care about any restriction from the west becouse he will not suffer(i dont belive that they put embargo for Russian oil and gas) but only some Russian citizen's. In whole Russian history unit was nothing, people was just living to serv few elites on top. So now we are at point when by next few years Putin will just cut Ukraine chunk by chunk and 'west' will do nothing. Like today http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/721751 they start mobilze baltic fleet.

PS. sorry for my bad english.

[koniu]

ORIGINAL: aciddrinker
If i good remember Crimea was added to Ukrainian SSR in 1956.

In February 1954 the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (RSFSR) gave Crimea as a gift from the Russians people to Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.
In that time it was only artificial border change on USSR internal map.

But when USSR fall, mostly to avoid internal military conflict between republics all republic sign treaty. In this treaty they agree that all republics (those that will stay in Russia Federation and those that gain Independence will keep their borders they have at day of signing treaty). This is how nothing meaning decision in 50s can create situation that in extreme can start WW3 or major regional conflict bigger that Yugoslavia war. This can lead to biggest military conflict Europe saw since WW2.


Historically speaking Crimea is more Russian than Ukrainian. But that those not change fact that today it is part of Ukrainian territory and Pacta sunt servanda

[JocMeister]

-Ukrainian sources claim two warships "have illegally entered Sevastapol harbor during the night" The same sources also claim Russian planes violated Ukrainian airspace during the night.

-Foreign minister Lavrov claims ultra nationalist on Crimea are threatening the lives of the Russian population and destabilizing the area and local interests.

-Ukrainian border guards claim Russian forces are currently "pouring in over the border to Crimea". At least 10 "combat helicopters" and 8 "Jet planes" have landed on the Crimea.

[obvert]

Also from the BBC news, which battle gets to the top of the popular news items for the day;

[Encircled]

BBC live coverage

BBC live coverage of the crisis

The snake v crocodile fight is ace btw!

[JocMeister]

I don´t know if I should be happy or sad that people rather watch a snake eat a crocodile than worry about the Ukrainian crisis? [:D]