NATO and 48 hours warning

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Tazak
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NATO and 48 hours warning

Post by Tazak »

Found this while looking up information about BAOR intel gathering capabilities

Strategy and Counter-Surprise: Intelligence within BAOR and NATO’s Northern Army Group

Its a google search that links to a PDF document which explores BAOR intel of various kinds including stay behind units, SAS and LRRP deploying behind lines, towards the end in the conclusion is this piece that looks at the lessons NATO took away from the 1973 Arab Israeli war;
NATO is confident of and requires 48 hours warning of an attack in Europe because of the scale of preparations necessary for even a limited attack. However, in a situation similar to the Central front, the Israeli's vaunted intelligence system noted all the indicators and failed to construe them correctly. NATO might do no better, and a close and careful reappraisal of our intelligence collection methods and analysis procedures is indicated.

Would NATO really have read the warning signs correctly
What kinds of human error could happen (e.g. that radar watch officer at Pearl harbour)
What war preparation can or does look like a peace time activity
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Sabre21
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RE: NATO and 48 hours warning

Post by Sabre21 »

There was so much over-lapping intel sources throughout the west that it would have been next to impossible to take a leak next to the border without someone knowing it.

From the constant patrolling on the ground and the air by the ACR's, Bundesgrunschutz, and various other military entities, to the 24/7 monitoring of the airwaves, telephone system, and layered radar coverage the problem would have been only if the civilian heads of state couldn't decide whether to mobilize reserves or not.

I got to visit one of the several underground facilities operated by the Germans back in 84. This place was like a mini-Norad. Deep underground built to withstand anything but a direct Nuc hit. The facility could be closed off and could sustain personnel there for 6 months. It was built on giant springs to absorb blasts and was NBC protected. It controlled the air defense network in southern Germany. I think there were at least two other such facilities. Radar coverage was so good aircraft taking off from deep into Poland were being monitored the moment they got off the ground. Everything was linked so if one site went down the others could pick up the slack. This site near Ulm was called "Strawbasket".

While there, I got to watch an SR-71 fly the border that had taken off from England. The entire flight was 45 minutes from take-off to landing that covered all of the border from Fulda down to Hof then down the Czech border to Austria and then back home. The border was flown by SR-71's on a very regular basis. We even watched a pair of Mig-25's try and intercept the SR-71, they never even came close as the SR simply accelerated away from them. It was a dangerous game they always played.

On another occasion in 89 I was up at Coburg on border duty. At about 1a.m. some green tracers came across the border and in less than 30 minutes the entire squadron was at stand to at their border positions. Someone had tried to jump the fence and had got fired upon. This was just a few months before the Berlin wall came down.

It didn't take much to trigger an alert. We constantly practiced and then practiced even more. Everyone was required to have their field gear packed and ready to go at a moments notice. Even families that were over there had to have a travel bag already packed for evacuation. Whenever we got the dreaded "Lariat Advance" codeword, in less than 1 hour all unit personnel were on duty and the first vehicles and aircraft were departing for the GDP if necessary and families were being moved to relocation sites. Within 24 hours all the units would be at their GDP sites locked and loaded.

West Germany was an armed camp in those days always cocked and ready to fire. You couldn't drive down the autobahn very far without seeing some type of military unit in a convoy going to one place or another. The entire mindset was so different then than it is today. You couldn't go more than an hour away from your base without someone in the chain of command knowing where you were at, unless you were on leave.

Every avenue of approach coming from across the border had been surveyed, every possible kill zone was plotted to the point where primary and alternate battle positions were already created with azimuths and ranges to the target area recorded. We had 45 years to prepare for such a war and I'm just thank full WWIII never broke out, it would have been a bloody awful mess and while I am confident we would have stopped the red horde, there would have been no winners, only survivors.
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RE: NATO and 48 hours warning

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OR if the Russians had employed maskirovka. Which is what I have them doing in FPC:RS.

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RE: NATO and 48 hours warning

Post by Sabre21 »

ORIGINAL: Mad Russian

OR if the Russians had employed maskirovka. Which is what I have them doing in FPC:RS.

Good Hunting.

MR

I'm sure they would have tried every trick in the book and then some to fool Nato. That's why the 48 to 72 hour warning was the most feared.

Thinking of surprises, do you plan on including any Soviet air assault or Spetznaz forces? I haven't read thru all the scenarios yet so didn't know if you already had those in there or not.
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RE: NATO and 48 hours warning

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Have you seen Purple One?

Good Hunting.

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RE: NATO and 48 hours warning

Post by Sabre21 »

ORIGINAL: Mad Russian

Have you seen Purple One?

Good Hunting.

MR

I hadn't prior but just looked at it. Looks interesting, I'll definitely give it a go.
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RE: NATO and 48 hours warning

Post by Mad Russian »

Flashpoint Campaigns: Red Storm is NATO's worst nightmare. They got 15 minutes warning. From a flat footed start they got to fight what would have been the most destructive war in human history.

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RE: NATO and 48 hours warning

Post by loki100 »

ORIGINAL: Sabre21

There was so much over-lapping intel sources throughout the west that it would have been next to impossible to take a leak next to the border without someone knowing it.

I also think you are possibly conflating tactical military intelligence with political decision making and sufficient certainty.

The British Civil Service used to play a game with new ministers - designed essentially to scare them witless - called 'slice the salami'.

So they were told that ordering BAOR to its deployment zones would be treated by the Pact as a declaration of war. And then asked when they would do it.

Initially they would say, oh, if there is a Pact build up and clear intelligence etc etc.

So they'd get a scenario. Such as:

Minister the Soviets tell us a defector with key nuclear information has fled into West Berlin and wants to sell it to a radical Palestinian group. Since the material is top secret they insist that we let their special forces in and will send them in ... should we put BAOR on deployment?

Usually they'd say no

Bit later, minister, a firefight has broken out between Soviet special forces and West Berlin police. They have told us that 20 Gds Army will be deployed into Berlin to ensure there is no repetition. ... etc

With a bit of stress, and despite a mounting set of aggressive moods, they would often not allow BAOR to react till they were told that the Pact had crossed the border into West Germany.
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RE: NATO and 48 hours warning

Post by british exil »

I suppose the ministers were sitting in a warm office in London and not in GHQ in Rheindalen, only a few hours drive/fighting from the German Borders?

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RE: NATO and 48 hours warning

Post by Sabre21 »

ORIGINAL: loki100

ORIGINAL: Sabre21

There was so much over-lapping intel sources throughout the west that it would have been next to impossible to take a leak next to the border without someone knowing it.

I also think you are possibly conflating tactical military intelligence with political decision making and sufficient certainty.

The British Civil Service used to play a game with new ministers - designed essentially to scare them witless - called 'slice the salami'.

So they were told that ordering BAOR to its deployment zones would be treated by the Pact as a declaration of war. And then asked when they would do it.

Initially they would say, oh, if there is a Pact build up and clear intelligence etc etc.

So they'd get a scenario. Such as:

Minister the Soviets tell us a defector with key nuclear information has fled into West Berlin and wants to sell it to a radical Palestinian group. Since the material is top secret they insist that we let their special forces in and will send them in ... should we put BAOR on deployment?

Usually they'd say no

Bit later, minister, a firefight has broken out between Soviet special forces and West Berlin police. They have told us that 20 Gds Army will be deployed into Berlin to ensure there is no repetition. ... etc

With a bit of stress, and despite a mounting set of aggressive moods, they would often not allow BAOR to react till they were told that the Pact had crossed the border into West Germany.

In the US sector the choice to deploy to the GDP was made by the military commanders. We did it on a regular basis. We also maintained a presence on the border 24/7. I spent many nights up there myself. So no, it wasn't an act of war, it was the nature of things at that time.

It would have been a political decision to deploy a full scale Reforger and activate Reserve/National Guard units. But in country forces, that was the USAREUR commander responsibility.
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RE: NATO and 48 hours warning

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I know of at least twice when the Warsaw Pact deployed to the border and NATO responded with a deployment of it's own. There was no act of war then either. Just a case of jittery nerves.

Good Hunting.

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RE: NATO and 48 hours warning

Post by Tazak »

ORIGINAL: loki100
ORIGINAL: Sabre21
There was so much over-lapping intel sources throughout the west that it would have been next to impossible to take a leak next to the border without someone knowing it.
I also think you are possibly conflating tactical military intelligence with political decision making and sufficient certainty.
The British Civil Service used to play a game with new ministers - designed essentially to scare them witless - called 'slice the salami'.
So they were told that ordering BAOR to its deployment zones would be treated by the Pact as a declaration of war. And then asked when they would do it.
Initially they would say, oh, if there is a Pact build up and clear intelligence etc etc.
So they'd get a scenario. Such as:
Minister the Soviets tell us a defector with key nuclear information has fled into West Berlin and wants to sell it to a radical Palestinian group. Since the material is top secret they insist that we let their special forces in and will send them in ... should we put BAOR on deployment?
Usually they'd say no
Bit later, minister, a firefight has broken out between Soviet special forces and West Berlin police. They have told us that 20 Gds Army will be deployed into Berlin to ensure there is no repetition. ... etc
With a bit of stress, and despite a mounting set of aggressive moods, they would often not allow BAOR to react till they were told that the Pact had crossed the border into West Germany.

Awww they get to wind up MPs.....I'd love to do that [:D], I'd have them phoning their families arranging to move to the mountains in wales (very little of military value in wales other than sheep!!)
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RE: NATO and 48 hours warning

Post by Combatengineerjrgmail »

Nice google search idea in the original post. Found the article, interesting reading after just a first glance. Even a poorly written article, which this does not appear to be, can point out much new info when you simply read the endnotes etc. This paper yielded this nugget:

http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/932/1/WRAP_Al ... ldraft.pdf

Endnote 10>>>
Under the 'Flashpoint Plan' the UK expected it to take a full week to mobilise reserves and get
BAOR up to its wartime complement, see DEFE 7/1821, UK Public Record Office, memo. to Dell
(MoD), 'NATO Alert Measures', 25 Sept. 1961, (all file references are to the PRO unless otherwise
stated).

Plashpoint Plan.... Just what did you guys know when.....

:)
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RE: NATO and 48 hours warning

Post by loki100 »

Should say that I was deliberately picking up on the question in the first post, that managing full readiness was as much a case of interpretation of information and, for many NATO states, essentially a political decision process
ORIGINAL: Tazak

Awww they get to wind up MPs.....I'd love to do that [:D], I'd have them phoning their families arranging to move to the mountains in wales (very little of military value in wales other than sheep!!)

och, once they'd got over this exercise (& it was made very real), the next one was around when to allow BAOR to use tactical nukes. Just to make it scary they were told that the UK would be hit by 8-9 Soviet thermonuclear strikes about 35 mins after first release of tactical weapons in Germany.

There is a brilliant, if played for comedy, rendition of this routine in the old British sitcom, 'Yes Minister'. As with so much in that series, the people who wrote it knew exactly what the reality of British governance was:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IX_d_vMKswE
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RE: NATO and 48 hours warning

Post by Tazak »

Check out this PDF link from an Canadian group - OPERATIONAL RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS ESTABLISHMENT

Starting at actual page 55, scenario 1: A Soviet Out-of-the- Blue Surprise Attack goes on to detail the soviet attack plan, the intriguing bit I find is the last sentence "For if surprise has in fact been lost - and this would be readily revealed by NATO's frantic recalling of pass personnel - the operation can be postponed to a more opportune time", how many times did NATO recall troops and start deploying?
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RE: NATO and 48 hours warning

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Twice in the mid-70's that I recall. Both for interesting reasons and with interesting results.

First was when Turkey pulled out of NATO. We were, 'sent to the border' then as a deterrent. The other time the Warsaw Pact deployed to the border (I don't remember the reason now) and NATO responded in kind. When NATO deployed to the border at the time of Turkey's decision the Warsaw Pact also deployed. One side wasn't going to do a full deployment without the other taking a corresponding defensive posture. That's where the 'Out of the Blue' attack for FPC Red Storm came from. What chain of events could lead to a possible Soviet defensive stance that would make them nervous enough to lash out. Think Japan 1941 here.

When going back and reading the actual events of the times I'm totally amazed that world didn't go to war.

I'll look in my initial research and see if I can find the pre-war incidents. If I can find it I'll post that here. It's an amazing chain of actual events.

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RE: NATO and 48 hours warning

Post by bayonetbrant »

Most of these discussions were the reason the old CFE monitors and the Military Liaison Missions were established.

If the Sov's put together an exercise of more the X number of troops, NATO had the option to give 24 hours notice of inspection, and then have observers on the ground, cameras in hand, to monitor and observe the exercise to ensure it wasn't an underhanded build up to war. They had the same agreements with us.
started here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helsinki_Accords
later updated with a Stockholm document that I can't find online right now (but referenced here in the "Background" section http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_ ... Background full-text PDF here: http://www.osce.org/fsc/41238 )

There was also the Military Liaison Missions - the US one was based in Potsdam - that had a limited number of officers (usually mid-career majors) who had credentials from the host nation to travel virtually anywhere they wanted and photograph almost anything they wanted.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_liaison_missions
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_D._Nicholson
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RE: NATO and 48 hours warning

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Turkey? I never heard of that one. Turkey as far as I know was and still is a part of Nato. Now France pulled out politically in the late 50's but militarily, the ground forces were still dedicated to its defense.


As for the SMLM and USMLM guys, they were always present and stationed in the respective countries. LTC Nicholson was killed while on duty taking pics back in the 80's as a member of the USMLM team. I knew the guy and some of the stories he used to tell me were pretty wild.
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RE: NATO and 48 hours warning

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Sabre, I imagine we have some mutual friends. About 2/3 of the team at the USMLM when Nicholson was killed were USARI classmates of my father.
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RE: NATO and 48 hours warning

Post by Sabre21 »

ORIGINAL: bayonetbrant

Sabre, I imagine we have some mutual friends. About 2/3 of the team at the USMLM when Nicholson was killed were USARI classmates of my father.

He was a major when I first met him back in 83 I think it was. I got selected to attend an Intell course down at Vilseck. I was an aviator then and when I showed up to the course it turned out to be for staff intel guys at brigade level and higher. I was as surprised as everyone else why I was there. Anyhoos, he was a guest speaker to the class and gave a good rundown on what USMLM was all about. I also got to meet the SSG that was his driver. I met him again later on not long before he was killed. They were the only 2 of the mission I met.

I did run into a couple of the SMLM team though up in Frankfurt at the PX.
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