A musical global war AAR...

[Centuur]

Germany moves the DAK and a 7-4 INF into the port of La Spezia. An unknown general named Rommel is appointed to command the armoured corps. He transforms a PzkW III tank into a mobile headquarters, by taking the gun of the vehicle and putting in a lot of communication equipment. Von Leeb rails to the Belgian-German border.

Imperial music of WW I was still used in the German military during the Nazi regime. A popular one was the “Königgrätzer Marsch”...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OmLeWbxSLA

Overall the German army and the Luftwaffe are moved towards the Western front. All Stuka's are now in the position to attack enemy positions.

[Centuur]

The Italian general staff gambles a little and order the MTN to go one hex westwards, thus putting a ZOC on the French resource. Even when disorganised, this unit defends in the mountains with 9 factors. If the turn ends, this resource isn't going to go into the French factories.

And here is: Aldo Visconti singing Ciao, Ciao bel Soldatin

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WkjB3lYw6o

More units move towards the Italian-French border. In Algeria the division starts moving along the railline towards Morocco. By doing so, the Algerian resource is isolated. Another resource not going into the French factories. In Tunesia, Lybian fast light infantry marches through the capital, moving towards Algeria. Graziani disembarks in Oran. An Italian land bomber rebases to Sicily. A die roll of 7 means that the turn doesn't end.

And here's the weather roll for the next (and probably last) impulse: a “one” is rolled. Together with the +2 modifier this means the weather is fine everywhere, except in the Arctic, where rain is falling. However, chances are very slim that the Axis can still use this perfect weather this turn...

[Klydon]

The Allies better hope the Axis don't get another impulse with that weather. It sets up perfect for a potential double move and France could wind up being out of the war at a very early date, especially if the Germans use a offensive chit.

[Centuur]

Well, there is a 90% chance that the turn ends if all allies pass. However, the French need to do something about that Italian MTN. If not, it's going to run havoc in the first Axis turn (going into Marseilles or moving towards Toulouse...

That will make it an 80% chance. Not very big at all, I think...

Let's assume the Axis gets another impulse and uses the offensive chit on von Bock (who is the only German HQ not disorganised at this moment). This means that six units are getting double and that's it. Sure, you will put a hole (or two) in the French frontline and sure you might be able to exploit it, but if the weather turns to blizzard, rain or storms, even the German war machine will get stuck during the J/F turn. Also, the reorganisation benefits are probably wasted, since the turn will end.
Now, the way things are set up, the Germans might get a +8 on one attack on the French frontline (if the Stuka ground strikes are missing all enemy units). This is good enough for softening up the French defenses. Yes, I probably will get a double move with the Axis, but it's the weather which is the all important factor here, I think.
Now, what I can do with the Axis (if they get another impulse, which I don't think they will) is attack and see how that's going to end up. If that makes a hole in the fronline, I'll wait and see who goes first and what the weather report gives me. If the Axis goes first and the weather is reasonable, why use the offensive chit at all? I'll crack a huge hole in the frontline in that case anyhow.






Any others who want to comment on this?

[Centuur]

The Italian MTN could become a dangerous unit if the turn ends if the French don't contain it. So the French elect not to pass and take a land action. All other major powers pass.

The French railmove an INF out of the Front with Belgium to Nice and start moving units so the Italian MTN won't be able to move more than on hex next turn (and than getting disorganised). To fill up the gap in the Belgian Front, the reserve Paris MIL is moved into it and Georges takes it's place. Gamelin in Paris than asks for his cook to come and discuss the New Years Eve dinnerparty with him. Georges, Bilotte, Pretalat, Darlan and even Gort are invited. Rumours are that even the British Prime Minister, mr. Chamberlain, will attend...

[Centuur]

Later that evening he is seen in a club in Paris, where he contracts Josephine Baker for that particular party:

Here is “Doudou”.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mM7SDyLggdU

While drinking a bottle of good wine at the club, one of his aides comes in and whispers something in his ears. He leaves immediately, causing quite an uproar in the place, because leaving half a bottle of very good wine unattended is unheard of in France...

[Orm]

With hindsight it would probably have been better if all the Allied nations had passed.

I bet Axis feels lucky now. [:)]

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: Orm

With hindsight it would probably have been better if all the Allied nations had passed.

I bet Axis feels lucky now. [:)]

Let's just say that von Bock is on the phone with the Luftwaffe at this very moment... [:D]

[Klydon]

Wow..

What you say is true about the weather in Jan-Feb, but if the Axis get a double move, (which they now stand a great chance at pulling off) the weather may actually work against the French because they would have harder time trying to contain the German drives. Right now, the French have a nice short strong line, but only 1 fighter and 1 bomber to interfere with German plans.

Attacking Metz and the stack east of the resource below Lille (and having success) will essentially doom the French. Depending on how aggressive you get with the armor, you could have a unit on the resource hex next to Lille (no production from there) and also cut off resources/factory in the Metz area. French production would suffer a huge blow.

Who says the Italians are worthless when it comes to land? I am sure the Germans are ordering up a box of Iron Crosses for the mountain troops. Hehe.

[Centuur]

Hmmmm... I think I'll do some calculations first. I only have six units I can double with the offensive chit and Metz is behind the Maginot line...

[Centuur]

Calculations made. I can get a +8 attack against the hex east of the resource next to Lille (if I double two units for this attack) and throwing in von Bock for HQ support. This might become better if I can get some disorganised units in the hex, using the two Stuka's there for ground strikes...
I can get a +12 attack against Metz if I double four units in that attack and throw in planes on ground support.

I can only get these, if the French Leo451 doesn't get through on ground support. If the Leo is added to the hex east of the resource, the odds goes down to a +6. If it gets into Metz that attack goes down to a +7 at most...

To get these odds, I have to put the whole Luftwaffe into action (including all FTR's).

Worst case scenario:
I don't get disorganised units in the hex east of the resource near Lille, the Leo get's flown to Metz and I lose 4 (!) units for no gain at all...
Can the German Wehrmacht absorb these kind of losses? It will throw them back, but looking at the tight frontline, the answer is probably: yes.

However, it sure is a blow to the German war effort if these attacks go wrong, since in that case the offensive chit is gone and this might mean that another one has to be used to crack the French line later...

On the other hand, if I wait to have von Rundstedt to use the offensive chit, odds are better on the attack in Belgium, but not on the one at Metz and I probably won't have a double move available.

Offensive chit or not. At the OKH the generals are divided in their opinions. Von Manstein, Guderian and von Bock are in favour, however von Brauchitz, Halder and von Leeb are against using the offensive chit. They are still arguing when the phone rings and the Führer makes the decision for the generals...

What is the order the Führer will give? Gentlemen, lets take a vote here. Who wants to use the offensive chit in this situation and who doesn't want to...

After carefull review, I think I'm, albeit reluctantly, on the side of the "Nicht Kleckern, Klotzen" faction. So count me in favour. High risk, high gain...

[Orm]

I would advice against using the chit.

Launch attacks without offensive chit. I dislike using a chit during the last impulse of the turn. I would rather spend it next turn if needed.

And since it is late in the turn you might make risky attacks that, if successful, helps you next turn if you get double impulse.

[alexvand]

I've just finished a game to M/A 1945 and one of my key mistakes was being far too cautious.

I vote for the attack, throw that chit down and see if you can blow through those French lines.

[Klydon]

I don't want to get too invested in one side or the other, etc in part because compared to most on the boards here, I am more or less a newb. The attack may well not work, but I also have learned that you just can't take good weather for granted and a extended French campaign is bad for the Germans who have urgent business to conduct elsewhere, be it against the CW and/or against Russia. I had this almost exact situation except it was just snow and admittedly I had Antwerp and Rundstedt available. The attacks were almost in the same spots and I got around 5-1 on both of them. Both attacks did work and a pile of French went to the pool or were shattered. Even with bad weather the next turn, the French were just not able to reconstruct their line to be nearly as strong as it was previously. They were short units and had more territory to cover. The result was that Paris was captured on the first impulse of the May-June turn and there was really nothing the French could do about it. The French air force is extremely weak early, but if the Germans wait around until May-June (or the weather forces them to) the French air force will be a lot stronger (still not enough to deal with the Luftwaffe, but still) and there will be more French units in game to deal with.

One of the biggest lessons I got taught about weather was I had a Mar-Apr turn go with the Allies winning and going first. The weather was terrible. The Germans decided to wait on their impulse. The Allies passed on the third impulse and the turn promptly ended. Needless to say, France didn't fall during May-June and still didn't fall until Jul-Aug.

Good weather is precious to the Axis early in the game and it is something they not only have to have, but really can't count on unfortunately, no matter how clever they are.

[Centuur]

So it stands at 3 for the use of the offensive and 1 against. Now, I don't have time this evening to go further with the AAR, so if any others want to make any imput to this decision, please do so...

Tomorrow evening I will slowly proceed with the AAR (however, it might become Wednesday untill it's posted here, since it will be a busy impulse, I think...).

[Centuur]

No more votes please. And while we are marching...

"Und wenn wir marchieren":

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLvgoazDK-o

Please notice the roadsigns in the video...

[Centuur]

All Axis powers take land actions. Germany uses the offensive chit on von Bock (sorry, Orm, but the majority has spoken and I'm not a dictator yet...).

[Centuur]

Japanese artillery opens up again to strike the defenders of Chengchow. They miss...

The German propaganda machine puts Lord How How on the Radio. And the music comes from Charley and his Orchestra. Here's “Big Bad Wolf”.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zc1E_QIJIwo

Von Bock did ask the Luftwaffe to bomb the French HQ and guns southeast of the resource hex next to Lille, since these units can intervene with the attack on the hex east of the resource next to Lille. If the guns or HQ can be put out of action, this will improve the attack a lot. A Stuka is put into action in this hex and the other Stuka goes to the hex in Belgium to be attacked.
The French decline to intercept with the FTR, saving it for ground support. In early morning, Georges is woken up by the sirens of the Stuka's diving down upon the castle in which he has based his headquarters...

The French AA gun opens fire to see if it can reduce the attack on the Belgian frontline, reducing the Stuka with 2 points to only a three. However, two three's and an eight are rolled, meaning the disruption of two units in the frontline...

The other Stuka misses the castle of Georges completely, but get's the guns (a four and an eight are rolled). This means that Georges is capable of giving HQ support to the defenders south of Brussels...

A gun, an INF and a ENG are railed out of Poland into the western front. Italy moves Graziani towards Algiers, while the Italian division enters Morocco and is now three hexes away from Rabat. Now, that's a huge threath to the CW. Morocco must be reinforced...

Meanwhile, in China, the Japanese army completes it preparations for the first attack on the Chinese of the game. Chengchow is completely surrounded and it seems unlikely that the Chinese troops will survive the coming attack...

[Centuur]

The preparations are made by Germany. Von Bock knows that he's done everything one possibly can, regarding the German positions to attack Metz and he's done a proper job with the armour corps at his disposal. He hopes he can stay in command on the Western Front after his attacks, because he's afraid that von Rundstedt, after he has reorganised his forces, will pull rank on him. The Luftwaffe is currently in the air, to provide the necessary ground support to increase the problems of the French. But every plan falls together during war...

[Centuur]

The French decides to support both attacks with the HQ's they have. Von Bock decides to do the same thing, since it is surely the last impulse of this turn (or isn't it?). Yamamoto throws all his weight into the attack at Chengchow too. The Japanese air force bombs the city, adding four factors to the attack.

At Metz, the Germans throw in 10 factors in ground support, escorted by a FTR. At the other attack point, an old Henschel, escorted by another FTR give 2 points to the hex.

Now, the French commander of the airforce is faced with a difficult decision. He has to decide if he is going to put the LeO 451 into any of the two attacks for ground support (of course, if he does so, the FTR will escort the plane. The hex east of Lille however, is attacked in such a manner, that three ground support added to the defender will only result in a -3 on the defense scale, making it a +10 instead of a +13. In Metz however, the attack will be reduced to a +7 only if the bomber gets in the hex in stead of a +12. Now, that's effective enough to take the gamble. The LeO flies, escorted with the French FTR to Metz.

The German Luftwaffe intercepts with it's last FTR, thus exhausting the complete airforce. If the turn doesn't end, the skies over Germany are open for any CW strategic bombardments...

With all those aircraft over Metz, an air-to-air battle takes place:

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