Europe Aflame 2012 AAR: Mark Stevens vs sealclubber - Round 2

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sealclubber
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RE: Europe Aflame 2012 AAR: Mark Stevens vs sealclubber - Round 2

Post by sealclubber »

Germany launches Operation Weseruebung, the invasion of Denmark and Norway! The Western Allies immediately cut the iron ore supply out of Narvik.

Denmark Front:

The Danish Army doesn't have any advance warning and is not mobilized. Seaborne landings and land based invasions take over all strategic points in the country without a shot fired.



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sealclubber
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RE: Europe Aflame 2012 AAR: Mark Stevens vs sealclubber - Round 2

Post by sealclubber »

Norwegian Front:

The attack on Norway starts with an air drop involving the 7 Flieger and 22 Airlanding divisions, accompanied by the Brandenburg regiment airdrop in the vicinity of Oslo. The Luftwaffe immediately sends 3 fighter wings to the airfield outside of Oslo.

The Luftwaffe and Kriegsmarine then initiates an attack on the Norwegian Navy blocking seaborne access to Oslo. The attack fails. The Kriegsmarine and its ocean-going assault force return to German ports. The airborne units launch an assault on Oslo and defeat the Norwegian garrison.

Allied GHQ had a Norwegian expeditionary force in readiness. While the Germans seized Oslo itself, a nearby port was still held by Norwegian forces. The Norwegian navy still held the approaches to the city. One French division reinforced the vital port of Bergen which controls access to Narvik by sea. Five French divisions land ouside of Oslo and greeted by the local Norwegian commander.

The French force assaults the German airborne forces in Oslo supported by the Royal Navy, French Atlantic and Mediterranean fleets and RAF Bomber Command. Air cover is provided by British, French and Danish fighters that take up station in Norwegian airfields.

Oslo is recaptured. From anchorage in the port of Oslo, the French navy shells the German held airfield outside the city and severely damages the fighter wings stationed there.



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Ruppich
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RE: Europe Aflame 2012 AAR: Mark Stevens vs sealclubber - Round 2

Post by Ruppich »

ORIGINAL: sealclubber
From a retreat cancellation perspective, a unit in "F" status has an 84% chance of cancelling a failed retreat check. "E" has a 65% chance, which is still high. "D" has a 25% chance. Those percentages only apply to the first tactical round, because that unit may lose its entrenchment status in that tactical round (which is why support assets are so important in 3.4).
Im talking about the ignore losses bug and you answer me with retreat cancelation chances...
is my english that bad?
secadegas
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RE: Europe Aflame 2012 AAR: Mark Stevens vs sealclubber - Round 2

Post by secadegas »

ORIGINAL: Ruppich
ORIGINAL: sealclubber
From a retreat cancellation perspective, a unit in "F" status has an 84% chance of cancelling a failed retreat check. "E" has a 65% chance, which is still high. "D" has a 25% chance. Those percentages only apply to the first tactical round, because that unit may lose its entrenchment status in that tactical round (which is why support assets are so important in 3.4).
Im talking about the ignore losses bug and you answer me with retreat cancelation chances...
is my english that bad?

There isn't a IL bug. However this is a RFC (retreat from combat) issue.
When you refered to IL bug it was understood you were talking about the long and often discussed entrenchement matter.
And concerning that Sealclubber answer is very sound.

As you can read on Sealclubber post the main problem is with units fortified status and entreched at a lesser scale.

Cfant
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RE: Europe Aflame 2012 AAR: Mark Stevens vs sealclubber - Round 2

Post by Cfant »

ORIGINAL: sealclubber
ORIGINAL: Cfant2
I wonder, that you attack the Fins from overstacked hexfields and with ignore losses setting. Doesn't it result in a lot of "continues", which burn your turn, and extremly high casualities?

From a purely TOAW standpoint, those two things are sort of mutually exclusive. Attackers break off typically due to losses sustained (or a failed morale check), so the higher the density penalties the higher the losses the attackers will sustain which means they will break off earlier. Red Army units will fail many morale checks, especially when they are no longer fresh. You can use this fact to your advantage (hint: assault ratio is king).

To answer your question in this particular game, no and no. What you are seeing is a screenshot from the End of Turn. I rotate fresh units in mid-way through the turn and since its off-road movement. Anything that can't attack us set is IL for defensive purposes. At the start of the next turn, exhausted attackers withdraw before I initiate fresh attacks with reserves moved the last turn lowering density penalties. I do sometimes attack with IL, sometimes with LL, sometimes with ML and sometimes with limited attacks - it depends on the situation. I recall three combats in Finland so far that burned 3 tactical rounds and two of those times were when Mark's Tactical Reserve units joined a battle in progress.

Busting the Mannerheim line is totally dependent on taking advantage of the initial deployment. If the Finns recover and get back to full readiness/supply/entrenchment, give up trying to break it.

I disagree. [;)] In my EA-games - which were mainly under 3.2 - I had far better results when attacking the Fins with minimize losses, but using flanking bonus. Casualitie-ratio was much better and my Russian counters didn't evaporate so often. On the other hand - here I agree with you - it's not a fast way to knock the Fins down. You need quite some time, so to enforce a Finnish surrender you need many turns and it will only be worth the price, if the French can hold out long enough. Still, I prefer the ml-approach. [:)]

@Ruppich: He said "from a retreat cancellation perspective" - and as far as I got it, retreats are a main issue regarding the IL-Bug [:)]
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Ruppich
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RE: Europe Aflame 2012 AAR: Mark Stevens vs sealclubber - Round 2

Post by Ruppich »

Short:
F+IL - bugged
E+IL - not so bugged
Is that your opinion? if yes then i asked if you have solid data [8D] no offense just looking for pure facts to establish house rules for my ongoing / next games
sealclubber
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RE: Europe Aflame 2012 AAR: Mark Stevens vs sealclubber - Round 2

Post by sealclubber »

ORIGINAL: Cfant2
I disagree. [;)] In my EA-games - which were mainly under 3.2 - I had far better results when attacking the Fins with minimize losses, but using flanking bonus. Casualitie-ratio was much better and my Russian counters didn't evaporate so often. On the other hand - here I agree with you - it's not a fast way to knock the Fins down. You need quite some time, so to enforce a Finnish surrender you need many turns and it will only be worth the price, if the French can hold out long enough. Still, I prefer the ml-approach. [:)]

@Ruppich: He said "from a retreat cancellation perspective" - and as far as I got it, retreats are a main issue regarding the IL-Bug [:)]

It would have been great if I could get a flanking bonus on the Mannerheim Line, but it's a straight hex line bordered by ocean and a lake and going in from the rear also requires retreating a full strength Finnish corps in "F" status without naval support.

But as you'll see in future updates to the AAR, the pounding III Corps took forced him to redeploy, which was the whole idea to begin with (although I was certainly hopeful III Corps would retreat or evaporate, it wasn't meant to be).
sealclubber
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RE: Europe Aflame 2012 AAR: Mark Stevens vs sealclubber - Round 2

Post by sealclubber »

ORIGINAL: Ruppich

Short:
F+IL - bugged
E+IL - not so bugged
Is that your opinion? if yes then i asked if you have solid data [8D] no offense just looking for pure facts to establish house rules for my ongoing / next games

All the "data" you need is Curtis Lemay's thread where he makes a strong statistical case that Ignore Losses is "literal". After that, you need only look at the Whats New document to look at the retreat cancellation percentages. "F" 84% cancellation and "E" 65% cancellation, multiplied by whatever % chance you have to cause a unit in IL to fail a morale check (because it won't retreat due to losses) and you have your overall chance to retreat that unit in the first tactical round regardless of all other factors.

Let's say a high proficiency defender is worn out and has a 20% chance of failing its morale check but is in "F" status. Your overall chance as the attacker to retreat it is 3.2%, even if you drop a nuclear bomb on the defender. You will likely have a higher probability of evaporating that unit than causing it to retreat.

Truthfully, Fortified Line/Dense Urban/Badland hexes are actually much worse than "F" or "E" deployment status because you can't dig the defender out of its terrain.

sealclubber
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RE: Europe Aflame 2012 AAR: Mark Stevens vs sealclubber - Round 2

Post by sealclubber »

September 2, 1939

All quiet on the Western and Norwegian fronts. Well, sort of. In Norway, elements of a German infantry corps advance along the southern coast, trying to knock out the coastal forts. The Allies let them wither out of supply and take losses. Eventually this may be an avenue for a future German attack, but for now the Allies let the Germans have their fun.

Finnish Front North:

In the North, engineering and bridging units finally catch up and repair the bridge over the super river while establishing a pontoon bridge:

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sealclubber
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RE: Europe Aflame 2012 AAR: Mark Stevens vs sealclubber - Round 2

Post by sealclubber »

Finnish Front South :

III Corps, an empty shell, finally withdraws. IV Corps also withdraws from its blocking position protecting the rear flank of the Mannerheim line. III Corps and a Finnish Reserve Brigade hold a blocking position on the road and Red Army forces punch their way through. Another attack is launched on a growing stack of Finnish units with the heavy guns of the Baltic Fleet's battleships once again in range. This attack causes some retreats but other Finnish units stand firm




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sealclubber
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RE: Europe Aflame 2012 AAR: Mark Stevens vs sealclubber - Round 2

Post by sealclubber »

September 9, 1939

All quiet on the Western and Norwegian fronts. Elements of the corps is still on Norwegian soil moving along the southern coastline, doing its thing. It may be receive air supply, so the French decide to dispatch a division to deal with the interloper.

Finnish Front South:

The Finnish Army redeploys and establishes a new line. Finnish GHQ seems determined to hold onto its last piece of the Mannerheim Line, perhaps expecting to be able to withdraw along the coastal road if needed. Red Army mechanized units resting around Leningrad go the long way around Lake Ladoga and form up for an attack planned for this week to break the new line in the north and capture Viipuri, trapping Finnish army units.



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sealclubber
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RE: Europe Aflame 2012 AAR: Mark Stevens vs sealclubber - Round 2

Post by sealclubber »

Finnish Front North:

The assault across the Kemijoki River begins. Soviet infantry attack and defeat a North Finnish Brigade and seize a bridgehead across the river. An assault is launched on the enemy forces on the coastal road. The turn promptly ends with 80% remaining. Something of a missed opportunity to blow through the new deployment in the south, which looked ripe for the plucking. Regardless, STAVKA believes it will not have nearly the trouble breaking this new line as it experienced on the Mannerheim Line.



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sealclubber
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RE: Europe Aflame 2012 AAR: Mark Stevens vs sealclubber - Round 2

Post by sealclubber »

September 16, 1939

The Germans withdraw from Norway at the sight of an approaching French division. In Finland, STAVKA declares this is the week when the Finns will be broken.... but it proves to be a premature declaration as the turn ends after one combat round with 90% of the turn remaining.

STAVKA laments spending over a month whittling away III Corps to achieve the opportunity of the last two weeks, only to have it wasted. The Finns will now fortify and STAVKA in both the north and south and must consider its next moves.

No screen capture. Look at last week's screen captures, everything is exactly as it was except the Finns have reached higher fortification levels now.
sealclubber
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RE: Europe Aflame 2012 AAR: Mark Stevens vs sealclubber - Round 2

Post by sealclubber »

September 13, 1939

Germany launches a surprise attack on the Low countries! The Belgian and Dutch armies are caught completely off guard and are unable to react:



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sealclubber
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RE: Europe Aflame 2012 AAR: Mark Stevens vs sealclubber - Round 2

Post by sealclubber »

Finnish Front:

Positions remain unchanged. STAVKA decides it would be unwise to launch offensives while its generals fret to and fro about a battlefield a thousand kilometers away. The Finns meanwhile continue digging in entrenchments and fortify themselves for the inevitable Red Army assault.
sealclubber
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RE: Europe Aflame 2012 AAR: Mark Stevens vs sealclubber - Round 2

Post by sealclubber »

September 30, 1939

Finnish front is quiet due to reorg and negative shock effects.

Low Countries:

The Dutch are reorganizing again as the Germans push north from Arnhem to reach the outskirts of Amsterdam. The Germans also seize and assault Antwerp with the obvious intention of putting the Belgians out of supply. The Germans probe the line in a few places and retreat the French defenders north of Sedan...



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sealclubber
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RE: Europe Aflame 2012 AAR: Mark Stevens vs sealclubber - Round 2

Post by sealclubber »

October 7, 1939

Finnish Front North:

With the end of negative shock, the Red Army recommences its assault on Finland. In the North, the defenders are mostly fresh, but are relatively small and only partially entrenched. Strong Red Army forces blast their way through and begin the long trip southwards towards Helsinki...



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sealclubber
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RE: Europe Aflame 2012 AAR: Mark Stevens vs sealclubber - Round 2

Post by sealclubber »

Finnish Front South:

Although IV Corps has recovered much of its readiness and supply, it has not replaced its losses. By contrast, the Soviet mechanized corps have recovered much of their readiness, supply and have replaced most of their losses. The mechanized corps commence a series of rotating assaults on IV Corps supported by the Red Air Force. Losses inflicted and sustained in these attacks are small, but add up. More importantly, IV Corps expends most of its supply fighting off these attacks while the Red Army simply rotates in fresh units.

It is only a matter of time before the Finns must react or the Red Army will break through.



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sealclubber
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RE: Europe Aflame 2012 AAR: Mark Stevens vs sealclubber - Round 2

Post by sealclubber »

Low Countries/French Front:

The Dutch are penned into "Fortress Holland" and simply dig in to await the inevitable assault. The Belgians are isolated by German forces, but an Allied counter-attack reopens a supply line to Brussels, however it will not hold...



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sealclubber
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RE: Europe Aflame 2012 AAR: Mark Stevens vs sealclubber - Round 2

Post by sealclubber »

October 14, 1939

Finnish Front North:

Finnish units struggle to retreat southwards, but Red Army control of the road ensures these northern forces will remain isolated and irrelevant as they starve in the harsh woodlands of Finland...


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