I hope I've made it clear that I don't now and have never suspected intentional OpSec violations. Unentinentional and subliminal things are certainly possible in any AAR. I'm not saying any occurred or didn't occur, but the mere possibility that one might happen going forward is what led me to craft the ruse in my AAR. I think from now on I just won't reveal detailed plans.
CR,
Certainly understand your feeling, but I did want to let you know how much I appreciate reading your planning/musing posts, you are very good at letting us see into your thought process, an deven being very candid on your doubts/second thoughts as well. If nothing else, perhaps you would consider recording some of those thoughts as you plan your next big operation, that you could then share after the 'big reveal' to see how you arrived at that plan? I know I would still like to see 'behind the curtain' and I'm sure others would as well. (And you seem to have already perfected your own 'code' to link it to known events in the AAR!) [;)]
As it was, there was some very interesting discussions on Go/NoGo for the NG operation, I can only imagine how you must have felt reading (and even replying) to those... when 'two hexes from Townsville' was really two dozen NW of Perth...
Just when I get the hang of a game, I buy two more...
I hope I've made it clear that I don't now and have never suspected intentional OpSec violations. Unentinentional and subliminal things are certainly possible in any AAR. I'm not saying any occurred or didn't occur, but the mere possibility that one might happen going forward is what led me to craft the ruse in my AAR. I think from now on I just won't reveal detailed plans.
CR,
Certainly understand your feeling, but I did want to let you know how much I appreciate reading your planning/musing posts, you are very good at letting us see into your thought process, an deven being very candid on your doubts/second thoughts as well. If nothing else, perhaps you would consider recording some of those thoughts as you plan your next big operation, that you could then share after the 'big reveal' to see how you arrived at that plan? I know I would still like to see 'behind the curtain' and I'm sure others would as well. (And you seem to have already perfected your own 'code' to link it to known events in the AAR!) [;)]
As it was, there was some very interesting discussions on Go/NoGo for the NG operation, I can only imagine how you must have felt reading (and even replying) to those... when 'two hexes from Townsville' was really two dozen NW of Perth...
[:D]
The whole maskirovka added a whole new layer of complexity to the already mind-boggling detail of putting together the amphib op. The mysterious code was thrown in to toy with us too!
My hat is off to any player that has the patience and focus to pull off such a huge plan. Well done CR! [&o][&o]
No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth
Note to self, if I ever get the time to devote to a PBEM and somehow get to play the illustrious Nemo, I need to start an aar and have sympathetic readers start sending Nemo innocuous PM's asking about a target area I have no interest in, in hopes of diverting attention from an area I am in interest of. Or I can just stick with the AI and fishing, which is what I will probably do the next few years...
Cool read! The shite has hit the provebial fan! CR, I am really, really pleased to see this landing. It will be most instructive to me.
And I must say, Nemo, there is none other like you and I admire your offensive thinking. As to other US generals that might have made the grade in the German Army, Lightning Joe Collins could have ably led a Pz Corp and Lucas Truscott and Dutch Cota (despite the dubbing he got in the unsuppoted initial divisional attack he got in the Hurtingen Forest) could have done the same with an infantry corp. There are a few others such as Ridgeway that might have made the grade. Outside of Patton, though, I'd be hard pressed to point at US generals that were the likes of Model, Guderian, Balck and many others.
By the way, Atkinson's, Guns at Last Light does a good job of pointing out the positives and negatives of US leadership. It is a must read for all here.
Tithe: Vernacular posting to boost CR's post count
gmoney,
Here's the bit that's really going to mess with your head [:D]... I would never have posted what I've posted if that wasn't something I consider when playing. Suffice it to say that the stuff I post on the forum is what I consider accessible to others and not things which would give anyone an advantage over me. The good, really, really effective sneaky, convoluted stuff - well, that I keep to myself [8D]. A girl's gotta have some secrets after all [:D]
Princep01,
Aye, I think those others were good also but they weren't ones that, IMO, the Germans would have felt were superior to most of theirs. The Germans, on the other hand, recognised that Patton was something special.... Rather importantly while Rommel clearly was promoted beyond his competence - brilliant divisional and great Korps commander. Hopelessly lost commanding an Army - Patton was someone they felt could handle multiple Korps and Armies.
Poor old Tukhachevsky and Triandafilov never got the chance, sadly. Instead we got Budenny [8|] and Rotmistrov[8|]
John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.
Nemo, assuming you were more intelligent than to post what you really think, I'd actually have to have them send you Pm's about the area I was going to attack, on the premise that you'd assume I knew that you knew that I knew that you thought that I might think about sending you false info. Then I'd attack tokyo...
On the Ground: The Allies take Siberoet and Nias; Sinabang should fall tomorrow; 1st Marines begin landing at Langsa, which has roughly 60 AV of Imperial Guards, begin landing a small force at Sibolga (against two Naval Guard units, I think) and scout Padang (which has a similar garrison). Fast BBs will bombard Langsa tomorrow and the Marine contingent, which won't be much larger than the enemy, will shock attack. Another fast BB TF will bombard Sibolga, the carriers SBDs will have that as an alternatve mission, and the troops there will shock attack. Troops are loading at Sabang to invade Phuket and the island to the south, plus Khota Bharu in between (don't know how strongly that's held). Sabang has 60k supply with lots more landing (though the limit is 53k). Engineers almost have the runway fixed, so progress should be quick. Still uncertain about Padang, but the ships are closing in. 27th Div. should be ready for combat at Sabang in about two days (what a silly quirk to have it somehow come ashore in strat mode!), so if all goes well tomorrow, I think the Allies begin plans to move on Malaya. 32nd Div. is a few days away from Sabang.
In the Air: Most significantly, only small and scattered enemy air strikes, scoring a few hits against ships near Cocos and Padang. Allied naval aircraft sortie against a large enemy convoy at Tandjoenxxxxx (near Medan) and sink roughly eight ships (apparently carrying supply, though most of the ships were xAP. With Sabang airfield operational, two squadrons of P40-Ks and a small P-38G contingent fly in from Assam. So now the Allies are better prepared to handle defense. F-4 squadron at Sabang will recon Singapore tomorrow. PBYs have moved forard to Siberoet and Nias. That should startle John.
At Sea: Two fast BBs on patrol near Phuket tear apart a small transport TF. Patrolling destroyers tangle with a few other small TFs near Tandjoen. The Allies will get more active down there tomorrow. I'd say 15 to 20 Japanese ships were sunk on the day - compared to roughly five Allied ships. Lots of combat ships coming from Assam are just a day or two away. CA New Orleans takes a sub torp and has pretty heavy damage, so she'll head to Colombo. The slow BBs should reach Colombo to replenish in two days. Some ships have completed unloading and are retiring to Colombo. I'll keep plenty n theater to handle any possible amphibious moves on Langsa, Medan and Malaya.
Overall: Things continue to look very good. Obvious now that the Allies achieved total surprise. Sibolga and Langsa are important - take them and the Allies have a solid base to work from and can get more creative. I think John is concentrating on Sumatra rather than Malaya. Hopefully, all the landings on the Sumatra Island to be followed now by the Malaya Islands will disconcert him.
Elsewhere: Cocos Island airfield goes to level six, as does Diego Garcia.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
New Orleans has had an eventful war. She was all but sunk off Exmouth back in March or April. Finally made it to Melbourne for repairs. Then to Bay of Bengal, where she led Ching Lee's TF into battle, taking moderate damage during one sharp scuffle. Then to Sumatra, where she eats a torp at Langsa. She is a good ship.
Somebody previously mentioned that this operation was a continuation of the plan I never got to implement vs. Q-Ball. The forumite that posted that has a long and good memory. The Allies had a massive invasion of Sumatra set for March of '43.
The Allies brought alot to this invasion. By November '42, the Allies can mount some stout operations if that haven't been bled to much. But it's still a bit early in actuality. November 1942 to invade Sumatra with about six or seven divisions is a pretty fair operation.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
ORIGINAL: Nemo121
I think what will have happened is that there were discussions via PM commenting on the game which gave him information through deduction and general background without ever veering towards anyone intentionally breaching OPSEC. People can deduce a lot from WHAT people ask about and WHEN and at what RATE. A flurry of PMs asking him to post pics of the NORPAC situation since he "hasn't updated that in a while" all coming in within a week of eachother realtime unmatched by any spike in other ignored areas is, to me, a clear sign that my opponent is looking at a NORPAC invasion.
Each individual PMer would be able to say, "I didn't breach OPSEC" ( and they'd be right ) but taken together even the slowest forumite couldn't help but see a clear pattern and draw the appropriate conclusions. My sense is that what we're looking at is the end result of this sort of PMing where individual PMs don't breach OPSEC but taken together they add up to a clear picture.
The principle of "Classification through Aggregation" in action..........
Running a popular AAR certainly does add another layer of Mega-game over the top of an already complex situation. I suppose you can only treat your AAR followers as you would the press with all that this entails.
Talk about real world simulation!! [X(]
CR, I think you are carrying this off with aplomb. Well done sir. [:)]
Cheers,
Reg.
(One day I will learn to spell - or check before posting....)
Uh oh, Firefox has a spell checker!! What excuse can I use now!!!
I agree - a very well thought out operation, with a heck of a lot of force behind it - which is going to make it very difficult for John to perform his usual "smash and run" style of offense.
How are things up in Burma? Are you able to apply additional pressure up there with the available forces? John has got to be "robbing Peter to pay Paul" in his rush to build some kind of coherent defense / offensive strike against you....
Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...
Overall: Things continue to look very good. Obvious now that the Allies achieved total surprise. Sibolga and Langsa are important - take them and the Allies have a solid base to work from and can get more creative. I think John is concentrating on Sumatra rather than Malaya. Hopefully, all the landings on the Sumatra Island to be followed now by the Malaya Islands will disconcert him.
The master of understatement!
This is a nightmare for anyone on the Japanese side and gorgeous from the Allied side. His unpreparedness is unconscionable in this area. It should be a hive of well thought-out interlocking defenses by this time. All bases on outer Sumatra should have some decent garrison. There should have been deep ocean search and sub patrols picking you up well in advance of landing as well.
On the whole your deception unveiled a poorly conceived defense for such a veteran player. This will be standard policy now for Japanese players in the same way having better defenses in the Kuriles was sparked by GJ's move earlier. While its hard to get everything garrisoned these are places you simply cannot ignore this late.
I like the analogy of the AAR being like the info given to the press. We can't however vote you out if you get too many ships sunk!
Well done Dan!
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
Overall: Things continue to look very good. Obvious now that the Allies achieved total surprise. Sibolga and Langsa are important - take them and the Allies have a solid base to work from and can get more creative. I think John is concentrating on Sumatra rather than Malaya. Hopefully, all the landings on the Sumatra Island to be followed now by the Malaya Islands will disconcert him.
The master of understatement!
This is a nightmare for anyone on the Japanese side and gorgeous from the Allied side. His unpreparedness is unconscionable in this area. It should be a hive of well thought-out interlocking defenses by this time. All bases on outer Sumatra should have some decent garrison. There should have been deep ocean search and sub patrols picking you up well in advance of landing as well.
On the whole your deception unveiled a poorly conceived defense for such a veteran player. This will be standard policy now for Japanese players in the same way having better defenses in the Kuriles was sparked by GJ's move earlier. While its hard to get everything garrisoned these are places you simply cannot ignore this late.
I like the analogy of the AAR being like the info given to the press. We can't however vote you out if you get too many ships sunk!
Well done Dan!
+1.
It's also a nightmare for anyone betting cash monies on this game going 'long'. [:'(]
way, way back in UV days, Wobbly and myself itroduced the individual AARs. Lots of people said it could never work. But think about it, now we all just accept that no one worthy of these forums would ever peek at their opponents AAR , and now we worry about other people accidently giving away secrets.
really, over the years there has been amazingly few indescetions, few cheating moments here on the forums.
I really think that overall, the members of this forum are (in the main) an amazingly honorable and honest lot
hats of to every one
OH, and great AAR, what a lot of fun
big seas, fast ships, life tastes better with salt
This operations has been fun and exciting, but for the reader even more fun may lie ahead. John's gathering and moving forward his army. His blood lust is up. And he has to wipe out the enemy lodgement. That sould be a recipe for good theater. Predictions:
Near Term: The Allied offensive continues in the near term, with the biggest emphasis on taking Sibolga, Langsa and Medan. I'll be implementing some kind of operation vs. Malaya, though it's exact size and nature will be determined over the next day or two. Finally, I'll be working hard to tidy up all the places taken thus far in preparation for the coming onslaught.
Medium Term: The KB arrives and should have considerable numerical superiority. Can the Allies stand and fight by using mainly Sabang for land-based air support, or will the enemy force be so powerful that the Allies have to parry and thrust at a distance? For some time, I would think Japan should be able to dictate things at sea. But, importantly, into the medium term I don't think Japan has the power or ability to wage effective and massive war on land - the Allies have too much and the Japanese are too spread out.
Long Term: Over the near and medium term, sharp air and sea battles will take place that will dictate who has long term control over western Sumatra. Subs should play a key roll. The KB will make things tough on the Allies, but the network of good bases (including Colombo and Diego Garcia, means that the Allies aren't fighting "on the dark side of the moon." Replenishment and supply and reinforcements are actually close by. To this point in the game, Ramree Island has been the Guadalcanal of the game. I think this will be Ramree on steroids.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
Assuming you have all your available CVs in theatre with the back up of LBA the best the KB can do is draw. Which of course is a defeat in real terms. Well played Sir.
Paul, I'm not at all sure of that. This is the Reluctant Admiral mod. I haven't looked at the lineup since back around 12/41 (six months ago real time), but I know John gets a fair number of extra carriers, including CVLs and CVEs in 1942. (I need to open the game again and check out the roster. [Ya think?])
I have the six fleet carriers, CV Indomitable (schedule for withdrawal in a month or so), CVL Hermes, and CVEs Copahee and Long Island.
John will have seven fleet carriers (the Pearl gang + Hiyo [Junyo was badly damaged a month ago] plus a host of light and escort carriers.
LBA will play a big role. If the Allies can maintain parity or better by using Sabang (and hopefully another couple of bases), okay. But if John's airforce based at Georgetown, Kota Bharu, etc. takes control, it's a different equation.
But subs and combat ships will play a big role, and I think the Allies are in pretty good shape there.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.