Hairy Asian Experiences - GreyJoy (J) vs. Q-Ball (A)

[princep01]

Ser Greyjoy, what IS that new avatar?  It looks like a skunk curled up on someone's belly "area".  You do have skunks in Italy, right?  I'm sure it would not spray a lawyer...you know, professional courtesy and all.  You are going to give poor Canoerebel apoplexy with such an image!
 
You are doing a masterful job holding the eastern DEI.  I'm sure this has skunked up Q's insidious plans.  Nicely done.

[Cribtop]

You really have been consistently hosed by the weather in this game. A shame advanced weather is bugged.

[BBfanboy]

C'mon, princep! You must recognize the tuxedo'd bird [whose common name we are forbidden to state].
You are right about the effect on some readers, though![:D]

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

You really have been consistently hosed by the weather in this game. A shame advanced weather is bugged.

????

what bug? Only way I play.

[GreyJoy]

I agree it's not a bug and i really like the fact that you cannot really predict how the weather will be Tomorrow. I would just like to have a little more working forecasting system. Now it really doesn't matter what the weather is forecasted for the upcoming day.

But hey, Brad will be affected by weather too! So hopefully the Gods of Winds will cause some troubles to him too in our next engagement


Oct 7, 1943

Immediately after the spotting of the KB in Indian Ocea, several TFs moved out from Darwin, moving NE...Taberfane (which was heavily bombed today), Saumlaki (bombed too)? Or Selroe? Or a re-supplying mission to Molu?
The fact is that Yesterday there were 99,000 men at Darwin for 22 units...today only 66,000 for 18 units...

But the question is: can he really load 30,000 men in a single night and move 4 hexes North of Darwin in the same turn? Sounds pretty strange to me.

You know what i think? I think this is a feint. I think Brad kept 4 units (probably divisions) in strat mode waiting... Yesterday he ordered them to move South so to puzzle my daily recon and moved out all those ships to create a great noise.

I have my 4 remaining Platform near Boela. I won't eat this bait. Not now at least. I fear another movement on the other coast of NG... I'll stand by and leave the defence of the Southern DEI to LBA and to my BB/CAs... cannot do much more at the moment. With only 3 CVs and a CVL i'm pretty weak.

The KB will take not less than a week to get back to position....and it's way to much to be able to do anything in time.

For the moment his CVs are anywhere in sight... let's keep the finger crossed.

But probably the whole Colombo thing was a mistake. Brad in his mail told me he had already moved out all his ships from Colombo.. strange cause my recon told me that yesterday (the day of the missed raid) at least CA/CLs were still present and some LSI too.... oh well...

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

But the question is: can he really load 30,000 men in a single night and move 4 hexes North of Darwin in the same turn? Sounds pretty strange to me.

If he doesn´t load supplies its probably doable using APA/AKAs.

[BBfanboy]

I agree the weather model needs some work to show systems building and dying out over a period of days. You usually need a big system to get severe storms that last for several days. You also need a big system to get severe weather far out at sea, where you don't get differential heating of land and water to create pop-up storms.

The big complaint I have with the "realistic weather" is that it is overdone on the severe weather side. With the switch off, severe weather/heavy rain occurs about 25% of the time which seems right. With it on, severe weather is more like 75-8o% of the time and it is hard to do flight operations all over the map. This is NOT realistic !

[Cribtop]

My understanding is the the bug with advanced weather causes the weather to be more likely to worsen than to improve, which in turn causes the "weeks of storms" effect you mention.

[JeffroK]

I turned off Advanced weather eons back, it was causing exactly the problems you are suffering. The effect is less but still rubbish.

But, how would the IJA have any idea of weather over Colombo, did they have an advanced weather recon unit operating?
have you been recceing the base regularly and at least have some thing to work from.
The German Army got it wrong on DDay despite subs, LR Aircraft and bases on Greenland etc .

Late war, the US had dedicated weather recon units to report before raids on Japan. In addition those to the west of the fighting had the advantage of being on the side of the prevailing weather.

[obvert]

A HUGE port, full of activity!...with a very juicy target in terms of warships...

A port...UNDEFENDED...

I left 3 CVs, 3 CSs(often misjudged as CVs) and 2 CVEs at Sorong...in plain view...., while the rest of the KB moved slowly to Singapore...unseen.
Then i moved, at 19 hexes from Colombo...near Sebang...unseen. Here i created my attacking force: 9 CVs, 4 CVLs and several warships.
nearly 800 planes. TOP pilots... everything.... unseen...

Well, i waited for a day of forecasted good weather... for 2 days there were storms over Colombo...i waited... usually the weather does a cycle, right? so after 2 days of truly bad weather i thought it was good to go.

Run at flank speed. Perfect positioning. 6 Hexes south of Colombo.
The morning came... clear over Colombo and STORMS over my CVs (now detected)
I thought...well, in the afternoon i still have a chance...right?

Well, in the PM phase the weather was good over my ships...BUT STORMS over Colombo!!!!

COM'on!?!?!?!?!?

That sucks.

If he still leaves it undefended, hit from the Andamans with 100 G3M3. He'll never know when you have the attack on, and when the weather thwarts it. I hit both Colombo and Madras this way, quite effectively.

[LoBaron]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

I agree the weather model needs some work to show systems building and dying out over a period of days. You usually need a big system to get severe storms that last for several days. You also need a big system to get severe weather far out at sea, where you don't get differential heating of land and water to create pop-up storms.

The big complaint I have with the "realistic weather" is that it is overdone on the severe weather side. With the switch off, severe weather/heavy rain occurs about 25% of the time which seems right. With it on, severe weather is more like 75-8o% of the time and it is hard to do flight operations all over the map. This is NOT realistic !

Actually, higly abstracted, the advanced weather model does exactly that. It simulates a big system, and from this baseline calculates the chances for local weather.

The WitP map is split into 9 squares. Those squares represent the big weather systems. The big weather system is a modifier for the chances of local weather phenomena to occur. So, if the square predicts "clear", there is a very high chance that local weather also shows "clear" as an average, but this does not mean it rules out 2-3 hexes where "severe storms" will occur. The obvious opposite happens when a square predicts "thunderstorms". There is a chance for "clear" to occur, but the baseline is set for much worse weather.

So, you have two indicators you can base your forecast on:
1) the weather square, as an indicator for the probabilities of specific weather to occur in a large area
2) the local "mouse over" prediction as an indicator for that single hex.

Both informations are important. If, for example, I see the mouseover prediction for "clear", but the hex is located in a square which predicts "thunderstorms", I lower the reliability of the local prediction.

With advanced weather on, and by combining area and local weather data, you can get weather information pretty similar to the WWII capabilities, with the possible exception of very late war. Usually, for a certain area, I can guess the weather up to 2 days in advance with a 60-70% reliability.


Now: The only thing that switching off advanced weather does, is it reset all squares to "party cloudy", which is one of the least reliable weather systems according to my experience. It reduces the chance for very bad weather to occur, but practically eliminates the ability to predict weather at all. Something I personally dislike.

IMHO advanced weather is the way to go, more so as it reduces the too high mission fruequency in WitP, which is a good thing, but YMMV.


As a sidenote: There IS a slight realism problem resulting from weather in general. TFs, even more CV TFs, moved with the weather and often used weather to their advantage. To launch planes they moved into clear areas, to hide they moved into rainsqualls. Those are tactical details pretty impossible to replicate ingame, and this can lead to more difficulties with weather ingame as it was the case in reality.


As a sidenote II: I have never noted the reported "advanced weather ON means thunderstorms all the time" situations that are reported by some except as the usual exaggerated comments after somebody witnessed a week of bad weather in a specific area. On average "advanced weather" ON results in worse weather than the simplified model, true, but with the benefit of better predictability.

As a sidenote III: To support my point II, thats a random weather situation some time ago in our PBEM. I have never witnessed thunderstorms all over the map or something even remotely similar.





Sorry for the highjack GJ!

[GreyJoy]

I agree. Even if I am not able to foresee what will the weather like as Lobaron does, I do like a lot the advanced weather system...even only for the fact that slows down a lot the pace of air operations and so the pace of the game.


19 October, 1943

Brad is making a LOT of noise in southern DEI. I still think it's a feint. A series of CAP traps laid to destroy my LBA before committing a real invasion

Today we got a little confirm... all his AP/APA/AK etc.... several TFs keep on loitering 2/3 hexes north of Darwin, with the protection of BB/CV/CVE TFs... at the same time he sent several barge TFs to resupply Molu and Saumlaki and sent 2/3 DD TFs to act as baits NE of Molu....it works in a certain way, cause 13 Frances and 28 Jacks impaled themselves over a wall of 150 fighters on LRCAP from Molu (more than 200 fighters moved there today). My bombers obviously were looking for his fletchers....[:@] which are almost impossible to hit[:-]
Oh well.... can't do much about it

At the same time my 3CVs+1CVL remain at Sorong...waiting for their sisters to come back from their useless trip to Colombo (yes, I had recced Colombo for several months in a row...my intel was as good as it could be). My KB is now refuelling at Singapore... will need 4/5 more days at normal speed to be completely operative in the southern DEI...or less if I run at flank speed.

However i'm really pissed having the KB so out of position at this crucial point of the war. Really a dubass I am[:@]

[Cribtop]

Thanks LoBaron for the explanation. I have not personally experienced major issues with weather. But I have read several threads where a bug was asserted. I'm glad to hear it's not the case,

[LoBaron]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
Even if I am not able to foresee what will the weather like as Lobaron does

My statement about my magic abilities was a bit inaccurate. What I meant is, I can predict flying/non-flying conditions most of the time 2 days in advance (very neccesary on 2 day turns). For game terms thats usually enough. I have already cancelled/delayed a lot of ops because of weather, and then executed with success a bit later.

Just as you tried on the CV raid, but it truly seems the weather gods are not on your side in this game.
What was the area/local forecast on your second attempt?

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Thanks LoBaron for the explanation. I have not personally experienced major issues with weather. But I have read several threads where a bug was asserted. I'm glad to hear it's not the case,

Just to be clear:

It just might be that there are very specific preconditions required for a weather bug to materialise, so obviousely I cannot completely rule out that in my games these preconditions were never met. My personal opinion though is that the bug does not exist.

But even if there is a bug it is unlikely to be as simple as a double chance for weather getting worse, as this would become evident in close to every game.

[GreyJoy]

Oct 20, 43

Not a good day.

First of all, we had a shot at BB Oklahoma who was sent to bomb Vanimo. 4 torps... 1 Hit...but no explosion [:@]

Then we sent Yamato and friends to bomb Molu... the big boys fought off 2 Fletcher TFs and 2 PT TFs... and bombed the hell out of Molu, closing the AF for the day... Maya hit a mine and another DD was almost sunk by those damned allied candies

The enemy "fake" invasion fleet remains south of Selroe... what is he waiting? if it was a real invasion fleet he should be running cause he knows the KB is coming back...and his window is closing...

However in Burma a HUGE LR-CAP+SWEEP mission washed out my Tojos from Lashio, killing 41 of them[X(], while at Lautem, several B25s arrived strafing my BBs there... no damage and 18 B25s didn't get back

Brad re.imbarked his 2 divisions from Rabaul.... with a lot of APAs.... if those APAs are there i don't think he has enough to load 30,000 men at Darwin in a single night...another point towards the Southern DEI "feint"





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Vanimo at 93,117

Japanese Ships
SS I-162, hits 11

Allied Ships
BB Oklahoma
DD Dashiell

hit, no explosion[:@]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Molu at 79,116, Range 9,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
BB Nagato
BB Yamato
CA Atago
CA Maya
CA Suzuya
CA Kinugasa
CA Furutaka
CA Kako
DD Tamanami
DD Oboro
DD Arikaze
DD Susukaze
DD Ishikaze

Allied Ships
DD Foote, Shell hits 7, and is sunk
DD Guest, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Harrison
DD O'Bannon, Shell hits 1


Maximum visibility in Clear Conditions and 57% moonlight: 12,000 yards
Range closes to 24,000 yards...
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 24,000 yards
Range closes to 19,000 yards...
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 19,000 yards
Range closes to 14,000 yards...
Range closes to 9,000 yards...
CONTACT: Japanese lookouts spot Allied task force at 9,000 yards
CONTACT: Allied lookouts spot Japanese task force at 9,000 yards
Koma, T. crosses the 'T'
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Molu at 79,116, Range 9,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
BB Nagato
BB Yamato
CA Atago
CA Maya
CA Suzuya
CA Kinugasa
CA Furutaka
CA Kako
DD Tamanami
DD Oboro
DD Arikaze
DD Susukaze
DD Ishikaze

Allied Ships
DD Philip, Shell hits 6, and is sunk
DD Barton
DD Bailey
DD Frazier, Shell hits 3


Maximum visibility in Clear Conditions and 57% moonlight: 12,000 yards
Range closes to 24,000 yards...
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 24,000 yards
Range closes to 19,000 yards...
Range closes to 14,000 yards...
Range closes to 9,000 yards...
CONTACT: Japanese lookouts spot Allied task force at 9,000 yards
CONTACT: Allied lookouts spot Japanese task force at 9,000 yards


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TF 25 encounters mine field at Molu (79,116)

Japanese Ships
DD Ishikaze, Mine hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
CA Maya, Mine hits 1




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Naval bombardment of Vanimo at 93,117

Allied Ships
BB Oklahoma
BB Nevada
DD Dashiell
DD Charles Ausburne

Japanese ground losses:
225 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 21 destroyed, 13 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 14 (11 destroyed, 3 disabled)

Airbase hits 9
Airbase supply hits 4
Runway hits 23
Port hits 4
Port supply hits 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Naval bombardment of Molu at 79,116

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1A Corsair: 13 damaged
F4U-1A Corsair: 3 destroyed on ground
P-47D2 Thunderbolt: 64 damaged
P-47D2 Thunderbolt: 3 destroyed on ground
F6F-3 Hellcat: 54 damaged
F6F-3 Hellcat: 8 destroyed on ground
F4U-1 Corsair: 37 damaged
F4U-1 Corsair: 2 destroyed on ground
P-40K Warhawk: 28 damaged
P-40K Warhawk: 1 destroyed on ground
SBD-3 Dauntless: 68 damaged
SBD-3 Dauntless: 6 destroyed on ground

Japanese Ships
BB Yamato
BB Nagato
CA Kako
CA Furutaka
CA Kinugasa
CA Suzuya

Allied ground losses:
538 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 13 destroyed, 61 disabled
Engineers: 7 destroyed, 20 disabled
Vehicles lost 8 (2 destroyed, 6 disabled)

Airbase hits 23
Airbase supply hits 11
Runway hits 67
Port hits 1

BB Yamato firing at Molu
E13A1 Jake acting as spotter for BB Nagato
BB Nagato firing at Molu
CA Kako firing at 22nd Marine Regiment
CA Furutaka firing at Molu
CA Kinugasa firing at Molu
CA Suzuya firing at Molu


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Babar at 76,116

Japanese Ships
BB Yamato
CA Suzuya
DD Susukaze
DD Arikaze

Allied Ships
SS Sawfish

SS Sawfish launches 6 torpedoes at BB Yamato...and miss.... [:D]



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Lashio , at 62,46

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 31 NM, estimated altitude 45,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 78

Allied aircraft
P-38H Lightning x 50 LRCAP
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 50 sweep
F4U-1 Corsair x 18 LRCAP

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 12 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-38H Lightning: 1 destroyed
P-47D2 Thunderbolt: 2 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
20 x P-47D2 Thunderbolt sweeping at 42000 feet *
15 x P-47D2 Thunderbolt sweeping at 42000 feet *





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Lautem at 72,115

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 13 NM, estimated altitude 5,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 226
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 23
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 62
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 59

Allied aircraft
B-25D1 Mitchell x 9

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-25D1 Mitchell: 5 damaged
B-25D1 Mitchell: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese Ships
BB Nagato, Bomb hits 4
BB Yamato, Bomb hits 1
CA Furutaka
DD Tamanami

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Lautem at 72,115

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 37 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 226
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 23
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 62
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 59

Allied aircraft
B-25D1 Mitchell x 9

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-25D1 Mitchell: 3 destroyed

[ny59giants]

Brad re.imbarked his 2 divisions from Rabaul.... with a lot of APAs.... if those APAs are there i don't think he has enough to load 30,000 men at Darwin in a single night...another point towards the Southern DEI "feint"

Wrong my Italian friend. [:-] Remember you are playing DBB and many of his engineer units have both Naval Support AND Shore Party devices. The screenshot below shows one of two that I have in June '43. I would bet you that one of them is at Darwin. In my game I could unload multiple TFs of troops at Esperance across the beach due to high amounts of NS & SP in one day easily.

Engineers:
The “name” of a device does not matter, only the device data matters. Any Eng unit can always build, but if it has Anti-Armor <1, it cannot reduce forts. If it has Anti-Soft <9, it cannot AV. If it is “named” Construction or Labor Eng, but is a Type = 23 (squad), it will not build. If it also has a-a <1, and a-s <9, it won’t do anything but eat (i.e., nothing but ‘bodies’). So there is a matrix of different Eng squads that represent a mix of abilities; build stuff, reduce forts, able to AV, some of the above, none of the above. DaBigBabes uses this matrix (according to our appreciation as to how it falls out) to help limit in-game tempo, by limiting in-game infrastructure.

Shore Party:
Shore Party is a sub-set of Nav Sup. Shore Party devices assist in loading/unloading but do not assist in repairing or rearming. Repair/rearm bases were very far and few between, for both sides, and thus with BigBabes, but both sides recognized an imperative for stevedoring and non-integral lift capability. Thus Shore Partys and a skoosh of code that lets them give an unload bonus to TFs. A Shore Party switch may be set for a Vehicle, such as an LVT-2 Amph Trac; It may be set for a Type = 24 Eng squad, like USA Port Srvc Sq, in which case it may also help build; It may be set for a Type = 23 Squad, like USA Amph Sup Sq.

Check the editor often, and become familiar with all the different kinds of units available. For example:

USMC Pioneer Sq – Squad type – No Build, Yes AV, Yes Shore Party, No Reduce Forts
USN Constr Eng Sq – Eng type – Yes Build, Yes AV, No Shore Party, No Reduce Forts
USN Spec Eng Sq – Eng type – Yes Build, No AV, Yes Shore Party, No Reduce Forts
USN Base Eng Sq – Eng type – Yes Build, No AV, Yes Shore Party, No Reduce Forts
USA Port Svc Sq – Eng type – Yes Build, No AV, Yes Shore Party, No Reduce Forts
USA Amph Sup Sq – Squad type – No Build, Yes AV, Yes Shore Party, No Reduce Forts

IJA Shipping Eng Sq – Squad type – No Build, No AV, No Reduce Forts, Yes Shore Party, LC = 17
IJA Cmbt Eng Sq – Eng type – Yes Build, Yes AV, Yes Reduce Forts, No Shore Party, LC = 17
IJA Const Eng Sq – Eng type – Yes Build, No AV, No Reduce Forts, No Shore Party, LC = 17
IJA Const Labor Sq – Squad type – No Build, No AV, No Reduce Forts, No Shore Party, LC = 20
IJN Const Eng Sq – Eng type – Yes Build, No AV, No Reduce Forts, No Shore Party, LC = 17
IJN Const Labor Sq – Squad type – No Build, No AV, No Reduce Forts, No Shore Party, LC = 20

So IJ Const Labor doesn’t 'do' anything and, what’s more, has a larger load cost. This represents the large manual labor component (Chinese/Korean) that results in 1000 man Eng Bns/Rgts without giving much additional capability. Typical IJA Const Bns/Rgts have 32 Const squads (590 ‘men’, 1088 total with the support, etc.), but 16 squads are Const Eng, while 16 are Const Labor. It's a way to have 32 squad (1000 man) Bns/Rgts with half the capability of a corresponding 32 squad Allied unit.

Even though many squad devices don’t ‘do’ anything (and many Eng devices can’t assault), they are still marginally useful (apart from the Eng devices being able to build). Anti-Soft = 8 (typically) so these units may still ‘shoot’ during the pre-assault fire phase. They ‘shoot’ better than the default firepower of a 251 Eng or 252 Sup device, so that’s something.

Different load costs also allow Const Bns/Rgts to be tailored as to troop count and, therefore, loadability and troop population on atolls and small islands.

[GreyJoy]

Yes Micheal, but even if he'd manage to load 30,000 men in a single night and move his ships 4 hexes north of Darwin, how can he hope to unload them in a single turn? Cause he knows he has just one turn to unload in those waters...then my BBs would arrive...

No, i think this is a feint.

Oct 21, 1943

everything's quiet. His "amphib" TFs are still lingering there...south of Selroe..., while my KB departed from Singapore.

Ok, now let's be serious: if i'm right and that is a feint, what's his pourpose? where are his REAL CVs?... i think he's attracting my attention there (SOUTHERN DEI) in order to keep me focused there and strike somewhere else... but where???? NOPAC? Mariannas? Far from the DEI...that's for sure... but with all those APAs in the SOPAC....mmmm....

[JocMeister]

FYI,

Unloading in just one turn is no problem at all. I do it all the time. Usually get 20k-30k of supply onshore too.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Yes Micheal, but even if he'd manage to load 30,000 men in a single night and move his ships 4 hexes north of Darwin, how can he hope to unload them in a single turn? Cause he knows he has just one turn to unload in those waters...then my BBs would arrive...

No, i think this is a feint.

Oct 21, 1943

everything's quiet. His "amphib" TFs are still lingering there...south of Selroe..., while my KB departed from Singapore.

Ok, now let's be serious: if i'm right and that is a feint, what's his pourpose? where are his REAL CVs?... i think he's attracting my attention there (SOUTHERN DEI) in order to keep me focused there and strike somewhere else... but where???? NOPAC? Mariannas? Far from the DEI...that's for sure... but with all those APAs in the SOPAC....mmmm....

Do you REALLY think that he would engage in a significant amphibious assault without air cover at this stage of the game? If there's a massive amphibious TF with 30,000 troops on it, he'd have to be mad to not have his a/c carriers in immediate support. Don't overthink this one, mate.

[Capt. Harlock]

SS Sawfish launches 6 torpedoes at BB Yamato...and miss....

I'd say that evens things out for the dud on Oklahoma.[;)]