Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[JocMeister]

Japanese Forces in Burma

I could certainly use some help with this. I can probably find this out myself by going through the Jap OOB myself but thats a pretty big undertaking so I hoping one of you guys have a better grasp of the Jap OOB. This is a list of what Erik has in Burma or is sending there right now:

Divisions
2nd Guards Division
2nd Division
6th Division
4th Division
9th Division
16th Division
21st Division
33rd Division
38th Division
39th/A Division (Probably a part bought out from China. Rest is probably awaiting PPs at the border)
48th Division (Being shipped in)
55th Division
56th Division (Being shipped in)

These are pretty useless I understand?
1st RTA Division
2rd RTA Division
3rd RTA Division

Only other divisions I know of are:
22nd ID is trashed at Buna
104th ID in China

Brigades/Retgiments
4th Ind.Mixed Regiment
23rd Ind.Mixed Brigade
30th Ind.Mixed Brigade
31st Ind.Mixed Brigade
32nd Ind.Mixed Brigade
33rd Ind.Mixed Brigade
35th Ind.Mixed Brigade (Being shipped in)
36th Ind.Mixed Brigade (Being shipped in)
37th Ind.Mixed Brigade (Being shipped in)

Armor
1st Tank Division
2nd Tank Division
3rd Tank Division
8th Tank Regiment

I know this is a huge chunk of the Japanese OOB. But how big is it? Is this half of his available divisions? 2/3rds? More? Less? If the New Guinea campaign is any indication Erik is running REALLY thin of combat troops outside Burma. Could this be the case for the rest of the map too? Could the DEI and Marianas be as thin as his SOPAC defense? Can he really garrison the DEI, Marianas, China and Philippines properly with all these troops in Burma?

EDIT: Found a few more divisions in Burma through Intel Monkey. Love that program! Also found some more VERY interesting things. More on that in a seperate post! Kudos to witpqs! [:)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I understand there are trade-offs. I only suggest this because in the first days around the Marianas he will saturate your CAP until you knock him down. Then you have a window to get some LBA fighters ashore while he's under the once-every-7-days rule. CVEs will usually sink from one torpedo or two large bombs; they're very fragile, too fragile IMO. You can hold them back as LBA transports, flush their loads ashore when you have (say) Tinian, and send them back to Pearl empty. Up front, you can heavy-load the CVs with top-drawer figthers which attrit the islands. If he overstacks use your BBs to crunch the air fields. TBs going for BBs aren't hitting your carriers. Rock-paper-scissors. Split your TFs into smaller chunks and let the code work for you. You will take losses; no question. But the Marianas have only a couple of keys and taking down his LBA fast and rough is #1.

Sounds reasonable! As you say dealing with his LBA will be key. But I must juggle this while remaining on guard against the KB and protect the landings. Very, very tough. I think to have some kind of staying power I can either do as you suggest and overload them or use VRF squadrons on some of the CVEs.

[JocMeister]

29th January -44

A quiet turn with some very interesting intel.

CENTPAC

Codebreakers find the KB sitting at Marcus Island of all places! I have absolutely NO idea why Erik has placed them there. [&:] I can only speculate he is fearful of a Bonin/Marianas invasion and counts on me not being able to jump into to the DEI just yet. Very risk since I have 7 IDs prepping for targets in NG. Had those been prepping for targets in the DEI Erik would have been in big dodo right now.

This means Erik still is willing to burn fuel for uncertain targets. I have a crapload of xAKs to spare. I think I will set up a few TFs looking like invasion forces and sail around a bit. [:D]

On a more serious note this also means that the Wake invasion will have to wait for a while. I´ll also move the Brit CVs/CVEs to CENTPAC.

New Guinea

Erik is using floatplanes to lift out troops from cut off bases. Even with LRCAP up I can´t shoot them down since I have to be in the hex right next to the base in order to score kills. Lovely "feature" of the game... [8|] Slightly irrelevant though since they are going to get stuck at Rabaul instead. Erik has some 450 Fighters there now. I think the strike will come within a week. Waiting for a AirHQ for Cape G.

Burma

Continuing to bomb his troops around Mandalay to good effect.

Morning Air attack on 39th/A Division, at 60,47 , near Mandalay

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes


Allied aircraft
Beaufort I x 21
Blenheim IV x 13
Blenheim VD x 13
Liberator II x 3
Liberator B.III x 9
Liberator GR.III x 6
Wellington GR.VIII x 13
Wellington B.X x 13
B-17F Fortress x 3
B-24D Liberator x 6
B-24D1 Liberator x 18
B-24J Liberator x 59
B-25C Mitchell x 38
B-25D1 Mitchell x 11
B-26B Marauder x 13


Allied aircraft losses
Beaufort I: 2 damaged
Liberator GR.III: 1 damaged
B-25C Mitchell: 2 damaged
B-25D1 Mitchell: 1 damaged
B-26B Marauder: 2 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
248 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 16 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 22 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Will attack with the Chinese in one or two turns...

Oh, remember how Erik was upset with me stacking a massive load of planes on Portland Roads 6 months ago? When I explained I kind of had to since it was the only AF that could reach Port Moresby? Erik now has 580 Fighters stationed at Rangoon despite having 4 airfields within 2 hexes from Rangoon...And 450 Fighters at Rabaul. We have a saying in Sweden: "Don´t throw rocks while in a glass house" It means something like "Don´t whine on others doing something while doing the exact same thing [:D]

I don´t really care about it but I did find it amusing. [:D]

If anyone has any input on the forces in Burma listed in post #741 let me know! [:)]

[JocMeister]

Intel Monkey discoveries [&o]

I spent a good hour going through all the intel I´ve gathered. Unfortunately after a disc crash the oldest Intel I have available is from July -43. But I did find some very telling things. Turns out that my hunch that Erik has sent way, way ,waaaay too much to Burma might be correct.

Outside Burma and China the only division I have found is... the 22nd in Buna. I know this isn´t rock solid unless I check off every division one by one and see if any is "missing". If I find the time I will do so. Micheal sent me a fantastic excel file with all the divisions that I can use! [:)]

I also did some random checks in Intel Monkey for specific targets to see what Erik is using for garrisons. Here is just a quick run through:

Tinian - a Recon regiment [X(]
Saipan - Get this: 9000 men! [X(] This intel is only 3 days old!
Guam - Recon and Tank regiment + AA battalion
Rota - 928 men only 2 months ago! [X(]
Marcus Island - Mixed Regiment
Soerabaja - 2 divisions passed through. Both are now in Burma
Eniwetok - Air division and AF Battalion
Dili - AF battalion!
Lautem - Inf regiment and a tank regiment.

I know this isn´t rock solid. But 9000 men on Saipan?! No wonder he put the KB on guard. Small tidbits like this is starting to confirm my belief that Erik has a massive amount of troops in Burma on the expense of..well everything else.

I think I´m going to go through everything division by division... If he is this thin in his defense I can start moving right away. KB can not be everywhere. With the KB on Marcus I might risk a jump to Dili right away. Even with only 15-30 in prep 4 divisions and 6 OZ Armor units is going to trash his two regiments.

[JocMeister]

Puh!

Well, I used the excel sheet Michael sent me and went through every single division on the sheet. Its not rock solid but I think I have all the divisions accounted for! I miss about 5 divisions that all start out in Manchuria/Korea and Mongolia. I´m assuming they are still there as Erik has some powerful divisions still in China that probably has high EXP after the Chinese campaign.

So assuming the 5 divisions that are unaccounted for are not bought out Erik has EVERY single division in Burma, China, Kwantung Army, Home Islands with two exceptions!
22nd - Trashed at Buna. Probably airlifted to Rabaul
56th - Actually not yet in Burma. Is currently at Sabang. Probably awaiting transport to Burma.

I´m no strategical genius but this must be an epic blunder? [&:] He is relying on smaller forces (RGT/BDEs/Garrison units) and high level of forts as he has done in SOPAC. This has caused only delays of a few days at most. I was held up at Port Moresby for 2 months but without the 22nd Division that would have fallen within the first week.

He actually has no big combat formation anywhere in the DEI, CENTPAC, Philippines or New Guinea. [X(] As I said I´m no genius but that have to be a massive blunder? Question is: How do I use this? What does that information change?

I need to think on this. As usual input and ideas are welcome! [:)]

[Olorin]

Are you sure all the divisions are accounted for? What about units from Manchuria bought out with PPs? I would double check the information to make sure the IJA distribution is as outlined in post 741.

IF your info is accurate however...

Putting the entire IJA, minus two divisions, in Burma... is not a blunder since it has worked well for him so far. It could even be argued that it's efficient force management [:D] But now that you know, it becomes a blunder, if you take steps to exploit it. The obvious solution is to invade the Andaman Islands and immediately after that Tavoy->Bangkok and/or Georgetown->Singapore. Of course it would require an immense effort to achieve actual encirclement of the IJA, which means lots of divisions, carriers and LBA.

Just my humble opinion ofc.

[Uncivil Engineer]

Assuming he still has 8000 AV in Manchukuo to prevent Russian activation, that would be the equivalent of about 16 divisions. There are a lot of garrison units in Manchukuo, but probably not more than the equivalent of 2 or 3 divisions. Where is the 1st IJA Division? It starts in Manchukuo with an experience level of 80. I didn't see it on your list. It's more than likely been bought out.

[Uncivil Engineer]

And BTW, the Royal Thai units all deactivate in 1944, as that's when they quit (when a new government came into power).

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Uncivil Engineer

Where is the 1st IJA Division?

He has´t combined it. One RGT is about to be destroyed on New Guinea and another is on Timor!

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Olorin
Putting the entire IJA, minus two divisions, in Burma... is not a blunder since it has work well for him so far. It could even be argued that it's efficient force management [:D]

Haha, well..that is one way of putting it! [:D]

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I understand there are trade-offs. I only suggest this because in the first days around the Marianas he will saturate your CAP until you knock him down. Then you have a window to get some LBA fighters ashore while he's under the once-every-7-days rule. CVEs will usually sink from one torpedo or two large bombs; they're very fragile, too fragile IMO. You can hold them back as LBA transports, flush their loads ashore when you have (say) Tinian, and send them back to Pearl empty. Up front, you can heavy-load the CVs with top-drawer figthers which attrit the islands. If he overstacks use your BBs to crunch the air fields. TBs going for BBs aren't hitting your carriers. Rock-paper-scissors. Split your TFs into smaller chunks and let the code work for you. You will take losses; no question. But the Marianas have only a couple of keys and taking down his LBA fast and rough is #1.

Sounds reasonable! As you say dealing with his LBA will be key. But I must juggle this while remaining on guard against the KB and protect the landings. Very, very tough. I think to have some kind of staying power I can either do as you suggest and overload them or use VRF squadrons on some of the CVEs.

If the KB shows up having over-CAPed fleet carriers is good. No, you can't easily sink the KB. But they can't easily sink you either, and they'll have their air wings decimated. You get ashore.

The main reason I suggest using CVEs as plane transports is they can supply LBA to a new base from 6-8 hexes out, and it arrives ready to go. No unload time, no exposure of Air Transport TFs on the beach. You should very much have other CVEs with VRF units embarked. The KB doesn't have this. Knock them around, resupply your fighter losses and you win the air right there.

But put enough ashore on your first island to just flat take it. Don't pussy-foot around with arty and a week of deliberate attacks. Don't sweat over-stacking. Just take it and get fighters ashore. Then clean up the mess.

Like I said, the Marianas are fun. [:)]

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Uncivil Engineer

Assuming he still has 8000 AV in Manchukuo to prevent Russian activation, that would be the equivalent of about 16 divisions. There are a lot of garrison units in Manchukuo, but probably not more than the equivalent of 2 or 3 divisions. Where is the 1st IJA Division? It starts in Manchukuo with an experience level of 80. I didn't see it on your list. It's more than likely been bought out.

This is an excellent point. It's the hardest of hard intel: if the USSR isn't activated, and the code never lies there, he has significant ground forces locked down in M.

[JocMeister]

Intel Monkey discoveries pt.2

First of all I want to thank witpqs for an excellent program. [&o] If you havn´t tried it yet do so! I only wish I REALLY used it a few months ago! [:D]

Anyway, I´ve spent the day trying to figure out how to exploit this new found knowledge. While it does chance some things its not the earth moving discovery I first thought. But it does change the way I will continue with this PBEM.

My initial thinking was to try and advance as fast as possible up the NG coast while maintaining a credible threat to the DEI from Darwin. I had no intention of actually trying the leap. This has certainly changed now. Erik only has a few regiments covering the whole of DEI. If I can only get a few divisions on Java it will be short work.
From now on the 1st Australian army will actively seek to land in the DEI. This mean the 7th OZ ID and the Americal ID won´t assist in the NG advance. This army will be reinforced by the 82nd West African ID that just left CT.

I will not send any additional IDs to the NG advance. The 10 divisions currently slated for this task will be more then enough.

Burma will not receive any additional IDs. What I have in place is enough to slowly, slowly grind him down. The need for speed here is lessened. Just locking most of the IJA forces here is a strategical victory in itself.

Getting China supplied is a wet dream that probably won´t happen. But if the 25k AV there can get in supply China will be a realy problem for Erik with only 13 divisions in place.

All USA IDs and USMC forces will be deployed in the Pacific or Australian 1st Army. I will go through the list and decide what will go where tonight.

The KB will have to be defeated to allow for the advance in CENTPAC. The schedule for the Wake, Eniwetok and Marianas invasions will be pushed to an earlier date. With only a RGT on each base in the Marianas I could actually invade it with the forces currently ready. But I will have to deal with the KB first. I will do some number crunching tonight.

[JocMeister]

Erik fell I´ll yesterday so I got no turn. Hopefully we can get one done today!

[JocMeister]

Got a turn from Erik. Ordered a massive aerial assault on Rabaul. I may have been a bit too greedy and trying to do too much here. But I´m hoping the combination of sweeps and escorts will allow a 150 plane TB/DB strike to go after his 3-5BBs at Rabaul and a 4E strike to close the AF.

In all I have over 1000 planes involved in this...if the sweeps doesn´t fly or fly after the 4Es and/or the TB/DBs this is going to be a massacre...

Fingers crossed! I asked Erik if he could send the replay back as soon as its ready. Sometimes he does and sometime he doesn´t. So I might not know until tomorrow.

[JocMeister]

Rabaul strike!

Some good and actually nothing too bad! Rabaul AF is closed! The IJAAF took a major beating when almost 400 planes were torched on the ground. [&o] In the air we got only a 1:1 but it was enough to let the bombers through. Some 50 pilots were lost today but all the elite groups had only a few losses. A P38 group took the biggest hit because I forgot to change the altitude and they swept at 13k feet.

TBs didn´t fly but the DBs did. Some hits on two the BBs but nothing major. We took out 2-4 DDs though.

Here is a screen of the most bloody air battle in the war!

[JocMeister]

-2nd Mars -44

Lots of action in New Guinea that culminates in the Rabaul strike.

New Guinea

In a huge stroke of luck Erik sends out a big sweep from Rabaul that same turn I go for the AF. Some 100 Franks sweep Buna. Probably trying to draw in some leaky LRCAP. They swept empty skies and returned to a Rabaul in ruins! This is beautiful reading! [:D]

Japanese aircraft losses

A6M3a Zero: 2 destroyed on ground
J2M2 Jack: 2 destroyed
J2M2 Jack: 1 destroyed on ground
J2M3 Jack: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged
J2M3 Jack: 2 destroyed on ground
N1K1 Rex: 3 damaged
N1K1 Rex: 2 destroyed on ground
N1K1-J George: 1 destroyed
N1K2-J George: 1 destroyed, 3 damaged
N1K2-J George: 2 destroyed on ground
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 3 destroyed, 22 damaged
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 13 destroyed on ground
D4Y2 Judy: 23 destroyed on ground
H8K2-L Emily: 8 destroyed on ground
E13A1 Jake: 26 destroyed on ground
H8K2 Emily: 21 destroyed on ground
L2D2 Tabby: 22 destroyed on ground
B6N2 Jill: 11 destroyed on ground
Ki-46-III Dinah: 7 destroyed on ground
Ki-61-Id Tony: 20 destroyed on ground
B5N2 Kate: 3 destroyed on ground
Ki-84a Frank: 14 destroyed on ground
Ki-49-II KAI Helen: 8 destroyed on ground
Ki-49-IIb Helen: 10 destroyed on ground
D4Y1-C Judy: 7 destroyed on ground
J1N1-C Irving: 1 destroyed on ground

I lost a big chunk of B25s coming in after the main attack. My 2E pools are NOT looking good right now. I have less then a 100 in the pools. Ouch.

2nd Marines secure Saidor. I will probably need a week or two to get ready for the Manus landings. I will put some 2Es on permanent duty suppressing Rabaul AF. Having closed Rabaul I will be able to move around a lot more freely. Erik will have to bring the KB over to pose a threat. But he also needs the KB to cover CENTPAC and DEI...But 35k Japanese troops are now cut off at Rabaul. Erik will have to do a massive effort to get them out.

I´m also extra happy about nailing almost 150 of Eriks Transports/Float transports. It probably going to take him forever the rebuild them.

I´m going to try and do what Q-ball has done so well and use fake invasion armadas.

Burma
Erik sweep Ramree island with 200 Franks shooting down 3 P40s, 1 Spit VII 2 Hurri for 4 own losses. I´m happy with that! [:D]

[catwhoorg]

That is a pretty impressive haul for one days action.

[JocMeister]

Discussion with Erik regarding withdrawing of airunits stuck on AF

This time Erik brought it up when he sent me the turn. He admitted using the withdraw function to get 200 AC stuck at Rabaul AF out and ask if I´m fine with this. My simple answer to him was that I don´t know. I asked him for more information. I want answers on the following:

-When you withdrew the planes this time what happened with the planes? Returned to the pool or destroyed?
-If destroyed was the AC accounted for a loss either as destroyed on the ground or OPS loss? IE was a VP awarded me for each plane?
-What happens if you leave the group at Rabaul and they are destroyed the following day?

If no points are awarded or the loss of the AC isn´t registered somehow then I would certainly think this is beyond what the developers intended? If he left the planes to be destroyed the following day wouldn´t he have to use PPs to buy them back (expensive!) as well as potentially waiting for up to 180 days instead of 60?

What do you guys think?

[paullus99]

If those planes go right back into the pool for distribution, then I'd say it is an unfair use (i.e. gaming) the system. The allied player could use the same function to get planes out of the Philippines or the DEI at the beginning of the war - and I'm sure the JFBs would be screaming bloody murder.

There is definitely a not-kosher thing about this.