The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

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ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think my replay showed the fall of Singers four or five days ago.  If John knew that, he'd probably order a shock attack, knowing that my forces were so weak that the slightest push would topple them.

That's a good suggestion about re-installing.  I'll suggest it as soon as Singers falls, as I don't want to broach the topic and give John any ideas beforehand.

I don't have any personal experience with synch bugs, so I'm on thin ice. But what is "truth" now from the game's POV? Singers is major. If John's side shows him owning it he might be moving aircraft there, sweeping mines, have run TFs past the CD, and have sent some LCUs off to do other things. Given how many tries he took to "take" it if he finds out he really doesn't have it, and he needs more time to move LCUs back again, he might blow a gasket.

The open turn shows what is real even if there has been a sync bug. So you might see different replays, (I think the Allied is the 'false replay, while the Japanese is the correct one), but once in the turn the truth is what is on the map, and is the same for both players.

[Canoerebel]

[Edited to Note: This is in reply to Bullwinkle's post] I don't think that's how the sync bug works (at least from prior experience).  I still have it and he's still bombing it every day.  So he knows the true state of things.  The only misleading thing was that his last attack reported "unsuccessful" for him, while it showed "successful" for me.  Then, when I opened the file for the next turn, I discovered that Singers actually hadn't fallen.

[kjnoel]

I've encountered the sync bug a couple of times - without any sort of update or anything changes, it just "seems" to happen occasionally.

I know about it because my opponent sends me his combat report while I'm at work so I spot major differences when I run my (allied) replay at home. The simple constant seems to be that the reality is always what the Japanese player sees (this makes sense because the replay sent to the Allied player is a separate file to the processed turn), the Allied player seems to see an alternative reality that never happened. I get the impression it happens a fair amount but most times the differences are so minor nobody ever realises.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

[Edited to Note: This is in reply to Bullwinkle's post] I don't think that's how the sync bug works (at least from prior experience).  I still have it and he's still bombing it every day.  So he knows the true state of things.  The only misleading thing was that his last attack reported "unsuccessful" for him, while it showed "successful" for me.  Then, when I opened the file for the next turn, I discovered that Singers actually hadn't fallen.

OK.

[Canoerebel]

3/24/42
 
Battle of the SW Cape:  One of the KB Branches caught and dispatched PoW, one of the saddest moments I've experienced.  The rest of the Allies ships have already passed map's edge, with the exception of several moderately damaged CLs that were accompanying PoW.  This largely brings the battle to an end.  Overall, Japan scored a big victory in this battle.  Drat!
 
Too Good to be True:  The S-Branch of the KB moves west.  Drat!  She's now 21 hexes from my carriers, which have to stop at Melbourne...but not yet.  I can't risk them being caught in port if the S-Branch reverses course.  If the IJN carriers continue moving west tomorrow, I'll offload my aircraft and send them to Perth, where they'll join 70 fighters and 45 Banshees.
 
Oz:  The stacked up reinforcement convoys are moving again.  Some will head to Sydney, some to Melbourne.  Alot of fighters and bombers are coming, plus most of two US Army divisions, some tanks, and some engineers.  I need about ten days to get them all into port.
 
Pacific:  A cruiser TF led by CA Indianapolis tangles with an IJ transport convoy up near Lunga, dispatching a handful of PBs and perhaps some xAKL and xAK.
 
DEI:  Singers finally falls.  John will likely shift his air power to Clark Field and will probably invade Port Blair.  With air transports of supply obviated, I've spread out the Dutch patroal aicraft between Batavia, Manado and Djakarta to see if I can pick up any reports of sexy ships.
 
India:  Quiet.
 
China:  MLR intact, with various manuevers ongoing in the Nanning to Liuchow sector.
 
NoPac:  Quiet.

[Capt. Harlock]

Battle of the SW Cape: One of the KB Branches caught and dispatched PoW, one of the saddest moments I've experienced. The rest of the Allies ships have already passed map's edge, with the exception of several moderately damaged CLs that were accompanying PoW. This largely brings the battle to an end. Overall, Japan scored a big victory in this battle. Drat!

Too Good to be True: The S-Branch of the KB moves west. Drat! She's now 21 hexes from my carriers, which have to stop at Melbourne...but not yet. I can't risk them being caught in port if the S-Branch reverses course.

[ ... ]

DEI: Singers finally falls.

Ouch, a grim turn. I wouldn't have thought the loss of northern Oz could be played into a naval victory like that...

[Canoerebel]

3/25/42
 
Battle of SW Cape:  Okay, now the battle is officially over, only because the last two lingering ships - CL Glasgow and CL Durban - were finished off.  I"m going to prepare a tally sheet of all the ships sunk and post that in a little while.  That will not be pretty viewing!

Oz:  The S-Branch of the KB retired further west and disappeared from my patrol network, which is pretty good along the south coast.  Accordingly, I've ordered the American CVs to Melbourne.  Each carrier is sending an SBD squadron to Perth (via Alice Springs, of all places, only because it's a good halfway point.)  I've also off loaded the fighter squadrons to Melbourne to try to get those critters upgraded.  Right now, at Perth, I have two Kittyhawk and two P-40E squadrons (the latter with experience of 60 is darn good).  I also have 47 Banshees with 72 SBDs on the way.  QE is unloading 27th/C Div. at Sydney.  The transports carrying 27th/B Div. to Sydney are about four days out, due east.

DEI:  I'm basically down to Batavia and Manado.

India:  Quiet.

China:  MLR intact.

Pacific:  Quiet.

[Canoerebel]

Here's the Butcher's Bill - all Allied ships lost in the Great Australian Chase during middle and late March.  You decide - is this a brutal number, or is the number deceptive?  I think the latter, but the loss of Prince of Wales was very tough.
 
BB - 1 (Prince of Wales)
CA - 1 (Exeter)
CL - 5 (Glasgow, Dragon, DeRuyter, Danae and Tromp)
DD - 5 (only Electra and Welke are worth more than 5 points)
AM - 8
xAK - 13 (four worth more than 5 points)
xAKL - 24
xAP - 1 (worth 12 points)
AO - 6 (one - Karumba - worth more than 5 points)
AG - 1
AS - 1 (Platypus is worth more than 5 points)
TK - 4 (Augustana, Francol and Gulfdawn worth more than 5 points)
AMc - 4
PC - 2
AVD - 1
CM - 3
PT - 2
 
In total, 19 ships worth more than 5 points were sunk.
 
On the flip side, I think the Allies claimed CA Suzuya, possibly one CL, and probably one to three DDs.  A meager tally.

[Cap Mandrake]

Canoe;

I really liked the tornado story. Darn close call!

I did find myself wondering if the waitress was attractive. If you can't say, I understand.


As for John splitting his carriers. He does that all the time and sometimes something really bad happens to them. [:)]

[Canoerebel]

Cap, on the possibility - the one in a trillion possibility - that I someday may become famous enough that the press will scour the most obscure sources for samples of my writing and opinions, I decline to answer your question.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Here's the Butcher's Bill - all Allied ships lost in the Great Australian Chase during middle and late March.  You decide - is this a brutal number, or is the number deceptive?  I think the latter, but the loss of Prince of Wales was very tough.

Everything but the cruisers and POW is minor. They are too in the big scheme, but in the theater, for the near future, they hurt a lot more than they do globally.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Cap, on the possibility - the one in a trillion possibility - that I someday may become famous enough that the press will scour the most obscure sources for samples of my writing and opinions, I decline to answer your question.

Which, of course, means that she was. [:)]

You can use code words like "healthy" or "athletic" or..well, never mind.

[Canoerebel]

Honey Boo Boo.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Honey Boo Boo.

Child labor laws?[8D]

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Honey Boo Boo.

Oh dear. No consanguinity, I trust.

Wait, don't answer. She spotted the tornado before you.

[Canoerebel]

3/26/42
 
Battle of the SW Cape:  With the S-Branch KB just south of Albany and likely on a course that will take her around the cape near Perth, I've set up my air force to try for a strike.  Perth has 90 fighters, and one each squadron of Banshees and Vindicators and two of SBD-3s.  Geraldton has two SBD-3 squadrons and one Banshee.  So that's something like 130 dive bombers and 90 fighters.  But this is probably still too good to be true.  I know John will likely take a crack at New Orleans (repairing there) soon, so we'll see.
 
Invasion Bonus:  This will expire in five days.  My guess is that John might be throwing something together to try and hit Port Blair.  I can offer about ten subs in oppostion, nothing else.
 
Japanese Phase II:  The follow up operations by Japan have been delayed for 2+ months - a decisive mistake IMO - but I think something's coming in April.  I'm betting on SW Australia.  I will do what I can to contest such an invasion - and I'll have alot more ground troops and American fighter and bombers starting in about ten days - but he can probably bring enough (now that Singers has fallen) to prevail.  However, I can't foresee any "Auto Victory" type threats developing at this point, so anything else is just an opportunity to (a) attrit Japan and (b) see Japan extend it's lines, which I can then use effectively later on.
 
 

[Canoerebel]

3/27/42
 
Too Good to be True:  Darn it!  The S-Branch of the KB stands off well to the SW of the cape.  After placing his carriers just a handful of hexes from Melbourne, John gets spidey senses and avoids Perth.  Drat!  None of my aircraft sortied, so at least he doesn't have any intel about my carrier planes (as far as I know).  I've been gleaning base forces around Oz to send to Perth, but unrestricted units are scarce.  Fortunately, one decent American base force unit is at Perth.  I think John's gonna come for Perth - either amphibious or new carrier raid - so maybe he'll eventually stumble into a lick.
 
Oz:  Another big transport TF will arrive at Sydney in two days.  I hope to withdraw QE at Sydney tomorrow.
 
Luzon:  Clark field is down to 5k supply.  I think she'll hold into early April, which is just delightful (especially considering Manila's sudden collapse way back in December).
 
India:  A new UK division is arriving at Aden.  I'm likely to commit this unit to the defense of Ceylon.  There are certain circumstances (highly unlikely but not impossible) in which I'd send them to Port Blair.
 
China:  MLR intact, though I do have several encroachments creating contest hexes (still controlled by the Chinese) between Kweilin and Hengyang).
 
Pacific:  No news.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

3/27/42
 
Too Good to be True:  Darn it!  The S-Branch of the KB stands off well to the SW of the cape.  After placing his carriers just a handful of hexes from Melbourne, John gets spidey senses and avoids Perth.  Drat!  None of my aircraft sortied, so at least he doesn't have any intel about my carrier planes (as far as I know).  I've been gleaning base forces around Oz to send to Perth, but unrestricted units are scarce.  Fortunately, one decent American base force unit is at Perth.  I think John's gonna come for Perth - either amphibious or new carrier raid - so maybe he'll eventually stumble into a lick.

So, he has carriers SW of Perth. Where could they go? 1) Perth 2) North (and away?) 3) West (nothing there and he knows it) 4) Back east.

Knowing John, knowing that he just had a drunken orgy of destruction, suspecting he doesn't know where your carriers are (not 100%), is Perth the high percentage move? I think it's at least 50%, but not 100%. If he did the bad thing and went east your carriers are naked. You could get your air groups back in two days (?) but they'd be tired.

My Finance professor always said "Secure the downside risk first and then re-evaluate."

Just something to consider.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

3/27/42
 
Too Good to be True:  Darn it!  The S-Branch of the KB stands off well to the SW of the cape.  After placing his carriers just a handful of hexes from Melbourne, John gets spidey senses and avoids Perth.  Drat!  None of my aircraft sortied, so at least he doesn't have any intel about my carrier planes (as far as I know).  I've been gleaning base forces around Oz to send to Perth, but unrestricted units are scarce.  Fortunately, one decent American base force unit is at Perth.  I think John's gonna come for Perth - either amphibious or new carrier raid - so maybe he'll eventually stumble into a lick.

So, he has carriers SW of Perth. Where could they go? 1) Perth 2) North (and away?) 3) West (nothing there and he knows it) 4) Back east.

Knowing John, knowing that he just had a drunken orgy of destruction, suspecting he doesn't know where your carriers are (not 100%), is Perth the high percentage move? I think it's at least 50%, but not 100%. If he did the bad thing and went east your carriers are naked. You could get your air groups back in two days (?) but they'd be tired.

My Finance professor always said "Secure the downside risk first and then re-evaluate."

Just something to consider.

I'm sure CR has some Whirraways at Melbourne to cover his carriers ....[8|]

[Canoerebel]

As usual with WitP:  AE, everything is an intricate dance, to wit:
 
1.  I want strike aircraft at Perth in case I get a shot at a lingering CV TF.
2.  My carriers are pretty naked at Melbourne.  I can probably shift my aircraft back to Melbourne before any element of the KB could arrive (or I could flee in a pinch - I should also note that I have picket ships east of Sydney and Brisbane to guard against a surprise from that direction).
3.  I have about ten inbound air transport TFs carrying a variety of American army and navy squadrons.  If they make it safely and reasonably soon, that alters the equations somewhat, giving me more protection.