A Lemon rises in the East: SqzMyLemon (J) vs. JocMeister (A)

Post descriptions of your brilliant victories and unfortunate defeats here.

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SqzMyLemon
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RE: Strategic musings...

Post by SqzMyLemon »

ORIGINAL: Saros

That 100K supplies for LI would likely be a lot more useful somewhere else. I'm in October '42 Scen1 and supply is short everywhere, there just isn't enough produced to expand factories, build bases/forts and supply your troops. You can pick like 1.8 of the three things to do properly.

Your best bet if you want to last lategame is to concentrate on stockpiling everything you can in Japan and invest in Georges, Franks and lategame fighters like Shindens and Ki-83's. One thing to think about is where the LI would be located, if its in mainland Japan you are going to have to ship resources in and if its off Japan you wont be able to get to the supplies it generates once the noose tightens around the home islands which in Scen 1 by 1945 (when the LI would be in the positive returns) it will have.

I think you are right Saros. In this particular instance the 100k in supply is better used repairing R&D factory points for late war fighters. A 100 LI expansion will do me no good by April 1945.

Glad to see you following along.
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Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)
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RE: Strategic musings...

Post by SqzMyLemon »

Duplicate post

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Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)
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RE: Total Chinese casualties to date.

Post by SqzMyLemon »

Here are the monthly numbers for destroyed Chinese squads and guns.

Dec/41:

1373 Infantry
1087 Non-Combat
117 Engineer
87 Guns

Jan/42:

1888 Infantry
1715 Non-Combat
109 Engineer
155 Guns

Feb/42:

974 Infantry
1057 Non-Combat
60 Engineer
89 Guns

March/42:

999 Infantry
1417 Non-Combat
40 Engineer
90 Guns

Total:

5234 Infantry
5276 Non-Combat
326 Engineer
421 Guns

Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)
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April 10/42 Update

Post by SqzMyLemon »

The game has slowed as Jocke is in full move mode and informed me I may not receive a turn until Friday, the 25th. I will have plenty of time to plan future moves. In the meantime, we did complete April 10th and something out of the ordinary occurred.

Indian Ocean:

I snuck CVL Ryujo and CVL Zuiho into the Indian Ocean and the task force has been cruising undetected well off the coast of Australia for a week. During the night naval movement phase, the CVL TF ran across an Allied transport TF, but failed to engage in a surface action. AAR follows:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Busselton at 22,153, Range 9,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CVL Ryujo
CVL Zuiho
CA Myoko
CA Haguro
DD Suzukaze
DD Nenohi
DD Hatsushima
DD Wakaba
DD Yugure
DD Ariake

Allied Ships
DE Starling
xAK Clan Alpine
xAK Empire Raja
xAK Filleigh
xAK Howra
xAK Jaladuta
xAK Jalajaran
xAK Empire Kumari
xAK Nirpura
xAK Nirvana
xAK Governor
xAK Tiradentes
xAK Salland
xAK Michael Embiricos

Reduced sighting due to 28% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Clear Conditions and 28% moonlight: 12,000 yards
Range increases to 12,000 yards...
CONTACT: Allied lookouts spot Japanese task force at 12,000 yards
Allied TF attempts to evade combat
Range increases to 12,000 yards...
Both Task Forces evade combat

I hoped the TF would remain within strike range during the air phase and I was in luck. Despite poor weather a strike was launched and a number of transports were damaged or sunk. Unfortunately no afternoon strike was launched. AAR follows:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Busselton at 21,152

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 29 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 24
B5N2 Kate x 28

No Japanese losses

Allied Ships
xAK Howra, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk
xAK Michael Embiricos, Torpedo hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Salland, Torpedo hits 1
xAK Jalajaran
xAK Clan Alpine
DE Starling
xAK Nirpura, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
xAK Nirvana, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk

Aircraft Attacking:
17 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
11 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo

Port Blair:

The amphibious landing against Port Blair commenced with a naval bombardment by BB's Mutsu and Nagato, but damage was minimal. The bulk of the 21st Division has landed and only one troop transport was damaged from enemy CD fire. The Allies had indeed reinforced the base, including an Indian Brigade. The remainder of 21st Division will land prior to any assault. I expect forts to cause some delay in capturing the base. Initial landing AAR follows:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Port Blair (46,58)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 3194 troops, 11 guns, 44 vehicles, Assault Value = 136

Defending force 11254 troops, 103 guns, 34 vehicles, Assault Value = 442

Allied ground losses:
7 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
44th Indian Brigade
Port Blair RN Det
2nd Indian Coastal Artillery Regiment
22nd Light AA Regiment

Defending units:
21st Div /1

Java:

Batavia is bombed daily, weather permitting, and damage levels to the airbase are increasing. Daily artillery bombardments are also beginning to take a toll on the defenders. Here's the latest bombardment results and the units involved in the battle for Batavia. The first deliberate attack will be launched on April 12th, after elements of 33rd Division recombine following strat mode conversion. I have 16th Division clearing Merak and in reserve. AAR follows:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Batavia (49,98)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 2718 troops, 179 guns, 198 vehicles, Assault Value = 1854

Defending force 36478 troops, 343 guns, 118 vehicles, Assault Value = 935

Japanese ground losses:
Vehicles lost 3 (2 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
201 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 17 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 3 (2 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Assaulting units:
33rd/B Division
33rd/A Division
18th Division
4th Division
Imperial Guards Division
33rd/C Division
1st Hvy.Artillery Regiment
3rd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
2nd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
3rd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
7th RF Gun Battalion
3rd RF Gun Battalion
3rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
18th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
17th Medium Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
Batavia Coastal Gun Battalion
6th KNIL Regiment
4th KNIL Regiment
Roodenburg Battalion
1st Regt Cavalerie
2nd KNIL Landstorm Battalion
Tjilatjap KNIL Battalion
1st KNIL Regiment
1st KNIL Landstorm Battalion
4th KNIL Landstorm Battalion
2nd KNIL Regiment
Lijfwacht Cav Sqn
Marinier Battalion
SE Borneo KNIL Battalion
Commandement Marine
1st KNIL AA Battalion
KNIL Army Command
1 ML-KNIL Aviation
2 ML-KNIL Aviation
ABDA
ML-KNIL
3rd KNIL AA Battalion
Batavia Base Force

Thoughts:

Nothing Earth shattering, but it was really nice to catch some enemy shipping today, even if only transports. No troops losses were indicated, so the TF was either empty or hauling supplies. I have created two SCTF's with a CA and DD each to attempt to wipe out the remaining ships of the enemy TF. The CVL's are low on fuel and will retire to rendezvous with a replenishment TF. I do not know where any Allied CV's are at present, so I will not tempt fate by keeping the CVL's patrolling so far out.

One worrisome development is the complete lack of Japanese submarine attacks on a few enemy transport TF's I've run across over the last month. For some reason despite often being located in the same hex, well away from Allied naval air search, I can't get attacks in. This game seems to be mirroring my last PBEM as far as submarine operations are concerned. Extremely disappointing.

China is action packed at the moment with Jocke attempting to reach Chihkiang by any means possible. I will attempt to cut off at least one major stack of Chinese LCU's and create another encirclement. It will come down to movement rates and if I can clear two Chinese Corps out of rough terrain on the main road to Chihkiang before the nine units that withdrew from Hengyang arrive. My Empire for a paratroop unit in China rather than being all in Java. Initial recon of Chihkiang indicates what appears to be only a British AA unit defending the base. Ugh, what a missed opportunity on my part to capture the base by paradrop. That might have bottled up both enemy forces withdrawing from Hengyang and Changsha and ripped the Chinese defence wide open.

So, it seems there won't be anything further happening until Friday. Just when things have gotten interesting. [8D]
Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)
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April 11/42 Update

Post by SqzMyLemon »

I received a turn from Jocke yesterday, but this will be it for at least a week. I'll take my time and start formulating my plans for India and my planned operations over the next few months.

April 11/42:

China:

A small action sees one Chinese Corps destroyed and another forced to retreat near Sian.

S.E. of Chihkiang, Japanese forces try to block nine Chinese LCU's from reaching the base. Depending on upcoming moves, there's a good chance I can isolate this force. Even if I don't, the five divisions freed up from Changsha might be able to catch this Chinese force in clear terrain and maul it.

There are now three enemy units at Chihkiang so it is unlikely I could have held the base if I had been able to make an earlier paradrop.

I'm going to be able to mass some serious firepower over the coming weeks in the north and will attempt to start pushing the Chinese back and take Kungchang.

Port Blair:

The 21st Division launches a deliberate attack at 1:1 odds and reduce the forts to level 1. A follow up deliberate attack may take the base. I'm glad I sent a division to deal with the base quickly as I can't afford to waste time taking these smaller bases.

Indian Ocean:

The Allied TF scatters to the wind and it's every ship for itself. Unfortunately, my SCTF's don't react as hoped and only one transport is located and sunk during the naval phase. During the air phase another is spotted and sunk by the CVL's. I'd like to stay and round up the rest, but I'm critically short of fuel, so the priority is to withdraw and replenish. There's also the chance of superior enemy naval forces catching my TF's low on fuel and far from home. I won't risk getting caught just to bag a few more transports.

Java:

All is set for the first deliberate assault against Batavia on the 12th. I will be attacking with a 2:1 AV advantage, but expect fort levels to heavily favour the defence. Artillery bombardments have been effective though, so perhaps the first assault will go better than anticipated. A quick end to resistance on Java will allow me to finally move on Palembang.

Horn Island:

A couple of xAKL's and a PG are spotted at Horn Island. Nell's from Lae sink the PG and torpedo both xAKL's.

Thoughts:

Eight enemy units at Darwin and five at Horn Island. As soon as Java is cleared I will deal with Darwin and Horn Island using the 56th Division which is currently scattered across Northern Australia.

All combat LCU reinforcements are heading to Luzon to reduce Manila. I'm trying to figure out how best to clear the port of mines while avoiding the CD guns, so the naval bombardments can go in risk free.

Lots to do over the coming weeks. I must start strengthening the Marshall's and Solomons in case the Allies make an early move while I'm occupied with India.
Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)
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Back up and running in a few days.

Post by SqzMyLemon »

I received an e-mail from Jocke stating we'll resume the game by Friday or Saturday. I have to admit RL work has been busy and I've not been up to playing at all lately. The hiatus couldn't have had better timing for me.

So, what about the game?

Having had time to look things over in detail, I'm not happy with my play once again. I have to learn to stay focused playing Japan and move my forces in a way that compliments my overall strategy. I've wasted so much time from poor planning that could have been better used preparing for the next phase of operations. I'm scrambling to get units in place to build up the infrastructure necessary to gain my next objectives.

I've decided that my overall strategy will require two, possibly three, major offensive operations to be conducted over the remainder of 1942 with one caveat stated below. I will not reveal the objectives or go into any further detail at this time. The strategic goal of finding and destroying Allied forces remains the priority, but the manner and sequence of events in which I will attempt to do so will change.

On an economic note, I still am investing heavily in aircraft R&D. There will be no more talk of expanding LI in this AAR, all available surplus supply must be devoted to advancing late war airframes as quickly as possible. I'm reducing merchant navy fuel requirements immediately with the aim to conserve fuel solely for combat operations and export to Japan. Resources will be shipped to Malaya, Indochina and China exclusively and thus move overland to Fusan for export to Japan. There will be no excursions to guano covered islands for resource shipments to Japan. The Empire goes on fuel rationing as of now.

Right now, the immediate goals remain the swift capture of Batavia and Palembang. Here's the caveat; the extent of my future offensive operations will be dependent on the state of the production facilities at Palembang upon capture. No fuel/oil means my offensive plans get scaled back and I assume more of a defensive posture. If Palembang remains a viable source of fuel/oil, I will aggresively look to bloody the enemy on ground of my choosing for the remainder of 1942.

The war resumes in a few days. Banzai!
Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)
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RE: Back up and running in a few days.

Post by PaxMondo »

Would agree with most of your points above.  Except: Palembang.  If damaged, you will want to commit the supplies to repair the oil centers.  Refineries?  Maybe.  Maybe some.  Tough decision.  Depends upon your other supply needs (a/c factory repair and R&D, offensive op's, etc.)
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RE: Back up and running in a few days.

Post by obvert »

It's late for Palembang, and even if the facilities are in tact, what I found is there will be less fuel and oil in the base than if captured earlier. By this date some of the del has been taken away to OZ, some spoiled, and if there is a long siege, then some will of course not be made at all. Still, your rationing scheme beginning now is the way to go and should keep things humming through the end if you stick to it.

With Miri and Pelembang (if damaged) you could be looking at 200-300k supplies just to get them back in order, and that is absolutely necessary. Sucks, but it has to happen. I wouldn't do refineries though. Not while there is a surplus in Japan. It's unlikely that they'll be wrecked anyway. Fingers crossed!
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RE: Back up and running in a few days.

Post by SqzMyLemon »

Thanks for the comments Erik and Tony. I've always struggled getting enough supply to Miri for repairs, but I seem to be doing a little better this time around. I'm just repairing the oil centres and the hardest part is keeping enough supply on hand to facilitate repairs. I'm preparing for a trashed Palembang and will provide enough supply for repairs.

A couple things of note. I still have over 220k of fuel at Saigon and another 250k at Port Arthur. I have over 170k of oil at Oosthaven, 90k at Medan and over 200k at Port Arthur. So I do have some large amounts stockpiled and just awaiting export to Japan. I'm able to draw fuel/oil to Fusan no problem, but I'm unable to stockpile resources at Fusan and it's becoming a problem. I wonder if expanding Keijo's and Port Arthur's HI upset things. It seems every major port in China and Korea has over 100k of resources available, but Fusan is at 0 and I seem to be drawing only what is produced daily. I'm 96% to a level 8 port so hopefully that will increase the resource draw away from Port Arthur and Keijo.

Thinking in terms of fuel use, I'm very wasteful. I always use more transports than is necessary to move troops around. I will begin to reduce the amount of shipping used to only what is required for non-amphibious operations in rear areas. Worrying about the possible destruction of fuel/oil from Palembang has at least made me look at ways to conserve fuel and be more efficient.

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RE: Back up and running in a few days.

Post by SqzMyLemon »

I'll finish up the turn for Jocke tonight and send it off.

I've ordered the first deliberate attack against Batavia. Early artillery bombardments have been effective destroying a number of squads daily, I hope this indicates the forts levels are not high and that perhaps the supply situation isn't great for the defenders.

Looking at China, I think I have a really good chance of trapping another nine enemy LCU's. If I can, that will be 27 units in total that I've removed from the Chinese OOB without destroying them. It also most likely means that Liuchow and Kweilin will not be reinforced prior to assaulting these bases which is good for me. Being able to use the Liuchow to Changsha railway will be huge in economic terms.

I've begun shifting LBA towards Burma in preparation for air operations against Commonwealth forces. Navy LBA will concentrate in the Solomons and DEI for both offensive operations and preventing the Allies from getting an early foothold if I'm occupied elsewhere.

I've 400+ PP's saved up and may begin buying out elements of the 8th Division from the Kwangtung Army. I'm thin for combat LCU's in the Pacific and I think I should make a big push to capture Manila with bought out units. This would free up almost three divisions worth of troops and a large number of support units currently laying siege to the base. It's not going to be easy, but intensive bombing and naval bombardments should be able to reduce the available supply for defence. I've avoided using artillery bombardments to keep my troop strength a mystery so far.

Lots to do, but I'm a lot more focused on what needs priority and have begun putting things in motion to remedy some earlier mistakes. I'm restructuring much of how I do things in an effort to make up for lost time and conserve both fuel and supply.

Fun times...
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RE: Back up and running in a few days.

Post by PaxMondo »

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

... I'm able to draw fuel/oil to Fusan no problem, but I'm unable to stockpile resources at Fusan and it's becoming a problem. I wonder if expanding Keijo's and Port Arthur's HI upset things. It seems every major port in China and Korea has over 100k of resources available, but Fusan is at 0 and I seem to be drawing only what is produced daily. I'm 96% to a level 8 port so hopefully that will increase the resource draw away from Port Arthur and Keijo.
Getting Pusan to Port Lvl 8 will help (a lot). Building anything at PA, Shanghai, HK, Keijo, or Singers (essentially any port along the Chinese continent) will hurt (a little).
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RE: Back up and running in a few days.

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

I have fuel over 200k at Port Arthur. So I do have some large amounts stockpiled and just awaiting export to Japan. I'm able to draw fuel/oil to Fusan no problem, but I'm unable to stockpile resources at Fusan and it's becoming a problem. I wonder if expanding Keijo's and Port Arthur's HI upset things. It seems every major port in China and Korea has over 100k of resources available, but Fusan is at 0 and I seem to be drawing only what is produced daily. I'm 96% to a level 8 port so hopefully that will increase the resource draw away from Port Arthur and Keijo.

Thinking in terms of fuel use, I'm very wasteful. I always use more transports than is necessary to move troops around. I will begin to reduce the amount of shipping used to only what is required for non-amphibious operations in rear areas. Worrying about the possible destruction of fuel/oil from Palembang has at least made me look at ways to conserve fuel and be more efficient.

I try not to take fuel/oil out of Manchuria on the advice of Mike and Pax. They pointed out that the area would eventually run out of surplus for the industry and then you'd have to ship it there. It's proving true in late 43-44.

There are useful things in the ships section (I think) of tracker that deal with efficiency of all of the ships. Of course the bigger their capacity the more efficient, but for some reason the Kyushu's seem to be far above the rest. If only there were more of those!

For convoys the Cribtop lifeboat strategy works well. So use the minimum number to haul the troops, then add one after loading to catch troops should something get torpedoed on the way. Also the bigger the ships the more likely they'll survive the hits. I've found the Yusens, Kyushus and Limas to survive one hit most of the time and make it back to port.
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RE: Further comment

Post by Alfred »

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

I've also decided to expand a number of LI factories in the Home Islands. I've always tinkered with the idea of this and it seems like the kind of game to try some new things. This obviously is a long term investment and won't pay dividends until early 1945. I'm not going to go crazy here, maybe just enough LI to compensate for the loss of some HI centres I expect to lose sooner than later throughout the Empire.

Just to put it into perspective, if you increase 1 LI factory today, it'll break even on 9 Jan 45.
Yeah, in stock scenarios there just is no economic justification to expand LI. That 1000 supply could have been used (or saved) somewhere else. Helping to keep a base over 20K to allow upgrades for example ....

Hmm, I'm going to disagree with both Mike Solli and PaxMondo who are reiterating the commonly accepted wisdom.

For years I have seen the statement that it takes 1000 days to start to get a positive ROI. That is a quite simplistic statement which is not correct. It fails to take into account externalities which are not immediately visible to a player. It fails to properly take into account opportunity cost associated with the externalities; instead everyone just focuses on the direct opportunity cost. In the overall scheme of things the externalities are often far more important than the direct, narrow issues which players focus on when stating that it requires 1000 days to break even.

Then there is also the issue that in military matters, sometimes the best and most devastating to the enemy actions to take are not the economically most efficient ones.

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RE: Back up and running in a few days.

Post by Chickenboy »

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
There will be no more talk of expanding LI in this AAR

Gah! Sorry about that, SqzMyLemon! [;)]
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RE: Further comment

Post by SqzMyLemon »

ORIGINAL: Alfred
ORIGINAL: PaxMondo
ORIGINAL: Mike Solli



Just to put it into perspective, if you increase 1 LI factory today, it'll break even on 9 Jan 45.
Yeah, in stock scenarios there just is no economic justification to expand LI. That 1000 supply could have been used (or saved) somewhere else. Helping to keep a base over 20K to allow upgrades for example ....

Hmm, I'm going to disagree with both Mike Solli and PaxMondo who are reiterating the commonly accepted wisdom.

For years I have seen the statement that it takes 1000 days to start to get a positive ROI. That is a quite simplistic statement which is not correct. It fails to take into account externalities which are not immediately visible to a player. It fails to properly take into account opportunity cost associated with the externalities; instead everyone just focuses on the direct opportunity cost. In the overall scheme of things the externalities are often far more important than the direct, narrow issues which players focus on when stating that it requires 1000 days to break even.

Then there is also the issue that in military matters, sometimes the best and most devastating to the enemy actions to take are not the economically most efficient ones.

Alfred
ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
There will be no more talk of expanding LI in this AAR

Gah! Sorry about that, SqzMyLemon! [;)]

First off, I think expanding LI can provide pretty decent returns if invested in from day one. I agree with Alfred that there is more to increasing LI than just looking at it in terms of spending 1000 supply/point and that it will take three years to fully pay off the investment. I think you start seeing returns well before that and I'll explain below. Both Erik and Andre have made comments previously that makes me think they also agree there could be some merit to increasing LI to compensate for losing HI centres and reduced fuel available to run HI in the late game.

I've invested heavily in aircraft R&D and don't feel at this stage I can also expand LI to any large degree. Therefore, I've decided not to expand LI this game, because I think it's too late to expand it in the kind of numbers that will make a difference.

Here's my take:

I believe Japan has a supply surplus of somewhere between 20k-25k at game start. For simplicity I'll go with a 20k surplus.

If I was to expand LI, lets start with expanding 20 LI factories one point per day. So that would be 20 new LI production points at a cost of 20k supply. I would do this for 5 months until the end of April 1942. Let's assume 30.5 days/month (I know Feb screws that up). So, in 30.5 days I've created 610 new LI points. Over the 5 month period I've increased this number to 3050 new LI points. I now stop expanding LI. So here are the numbers:

20 LI/day expansion costs 20k supply/day

20 LI/day x 30.5 days = 610 new LI points (cost in supply = 610k)

610 LI/day x 5 months = 3050 new LI points (cost in supply = 3,050,000)

Lets say we're all repaired and running by the end of April. So, after the first year you'll produce supply from these expanded LI factories to the tune of 1,116,300 supply/year.

3050 LI x 30.5 days x 12 months = 1,116,300 supply.

So by May 1943 you've recovered 36% of your initial 3,050,000 supply cost to expand LI.

By May 1944 you've recovered another 36% for a grand total of 2,232,600 supply.

By May 1945 you've theoretically recovered all 3,050,000 supply spent in your initial investment.

So after all is said and done you've increased Japan's supply production potential by 3050 LI factories producing 3050 supply/day by May 1945. That's an increase of 15.25% of the original supply surplus.

What about resources? Well, 610 LI factories will require an additional 9150 resources/day or 279,075 resources/month.

The question of whether to expand LI in the Home Islands or China needs to be answered. I think you do a combination of both. If you choose Japan you must factor in the fuel cost of importing the extra resources over and above what is already required to run the economy with no expansion.

China makes a lot of sense. It's swimming in resources and requires no fuel expenditure unless you decide to export supply to Japan. Your expanded supply centres should last a long time safe from Allied bombing or recapture.

I'm not a statistics or economic guru and my analysis is simplistic. I'm not accounting for all the variables applicable to how the LI expansion was conducted. Just from my example there's an increase of 3050 supply generated per day in either Japan, China or a combination of both by May 1945 requiring no fuel to produce other than that used in transporting any additional resources needed in the Home Islands. Another thing is you don't have to wait until May 1945 to have been receiving the benefit. Who knows how that supply you've recovered may best be used over the next three years and what a boon to possibly have an extra 1000-3000 supply per day in 1945 after investing way back in 1942, which is the time you can most afford to.

I totally agree with Alfred that the benefits of expanding LI shouldn't simply be reduced to the argument that it costs 1000 supply points and takes three years to break even so don't do it. Depending on your strategy and how you prefer to expand you economy or focus on R&D, I think expanding LI could play a major role in the late game. As far as I know it's never been tried, but that doesn't mean that it couldn't have a major impact on Japan's ability to last after the fuel and oil is gone.

Just my thoughts. Please feel free to point out anything I haven't accounted for or if I've made errors in my simple calculations.
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RE: Further comment

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli




Just to put it into perspective, if you increase 1 LI factory today, it'll break even on 9 Jan 45.
Yeah, in stock scenarios there just is no economic justification to expand LI. That 1000 supply could have been used (or saved) somewhere else. Helping to keep a base over 20K to allow upgrades for example ....

Hmm, I'm going to disagree with both Mike Solli and PaxMondo who are reiterating the commonly accepted wisdom.

For years I have seen the statement that it takes 1000 days to start to get a positive ROI. That is a quite simplistic statement which is not correct. It fails to take into account externalities which are not immediately visible to a player. It fails to properly take into account opportunity cost associated with the externalities; instead everyone just focuses on the direct opportunity cost. In the overall scheme of things the externalities are often far more important than the direct, narrow issues which players focus on when stating that it requires 1000 days to break even.

Then there is also the issue that in military matters, sometimes the best and most devastating to the enemy actions to take are not the economically most efficient ones.

Alfred

Please pardon the foray back into this Joseph, but I think Alfred's comments could be really interesting if I actually could get my head around what he is saying.

Alfred, in a more concrete example-based method, could you explain what situations you feel warrant the increase of LI for the Japanese and at what date would you cease from doing so? How much would you increase it and what is the upper limit for this? What do you mean by externalities and opportunity cost?

My take on it is simply that although it takes a lot of supply at first, unless I'm playing a mod that gives more stuff and less supply output, after it's increased it then produces more each day and thus gives you more to play with in the moment as well as making up the total spent by the end. I've only increased it a small amount though, so I'm interested if you've explored this further in a game to 45 with Japan.
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RE: Further comment

Post by obvert »

Thanks for laying that out Joseph. Very clear. It is a LOT of supply used, isn't it, if you do that much. Tough when at home you're only getting 27k a day surplus to run everything.
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RE: Further comment

Post by SqzMyLemon »

ORIGINAL: obvert

Please pardon the foray back into this Joseph, but I think Alfred's comments could be really interesting if I actually could get my head around what he is saying.

Not at all Erik. I think this is an important discussion and feel it should be explored fully. Post away.
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RE: Further comment

Post by SqzMyLemon »

ORIGINAL: obvert

Thanks for laying that out Joseph. Very clear. It is a LOT of supply used, isn't it, if you do that much. Tough when at home you're only getting 27k a day surplus to run everything.

I thought it was about time to post some numbers to play around with as a starting point. Of course the numbers can be adjusted and expanding by 20 LI points per day is maybe a stretch, but you get the idea.

I think it ultimately comes down to the kind of player you are and your long term strategy. Plan on being very aggressive and perhaps expanding LI is not a good idea. Plan on expanding naval, merchant, armaments, vehicle factories while producing a lot of aircraft and R&D investment and maybe expanding LI is not a good idea. Plan on playing a conservative game with Japan with minimal expansion and war production then LI expansion might make a lot of sense. I believe some combination of the above may be the best strategy, it all comes down to what you want and how to best manage your limited resources to achieve your goals. I don't believe there is a right and wrong here, but I no longer believe it is something that "just shouldn't be done" anymore.
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RE: Back up and running in a few days.

Post by SqzMyLemon »

ORIGINAL: obvert

I try not to take fuel/oil out of Manchuria on the advice of Mike and Pax. They pointed out that the area would eventually run out of surplus for the industry and then you'd have to ship it there. It's proving true in late 43-44.

I agree. I don't export the Port Arthur fuel to Japan either, but I do export the oil in small numbers. Granted, in my last PBEM I had captured Lanchow and Sian quite early so I had more fuel/oil to play with and I had no shortages on the mainland up to March 1943. I mentioned the Port Arthur fuel just to provide an example of a ready stockpile if an infusion was needed for the Home Islands. [;)]
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