Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A)

[Cribtop]

February 1, 1943

A quiet day.

Southern Army

The enemy CVTF continues to loiter near Port Hedland as our subs maneuver to catch up. This is critical as KB is now only 16 hexes from Exmouth. Unless CF smells a rat and abandons the invasion TFs to flee by flank speed tomorrow, a battle will occur on the 3rd or 4th.

Daigo Yoshino and Commander Genda are sweating the details of the upcoming battle and the mood is tense throughout the Imperial command structure. Is there any reason we shouldn't engage here, readers? I can think of none. We firmly believe the enemy to be down 3 USN CVs and 2 USN CVEs, he doesn't have Hellcats yet but soon will. We can deploy 8 CVs and 3 CVLs (the fourth CVL is in Japan after repairs). His fleet consists at most of Enterprise, Hornet, Wasp and whatever the RN possesses, plus perhaps a few USN CVEs which appear to be at Broome and thus out of range. Finally, we know where he is but he has no idea where we are and our DLs are 0/0. My only concerns are random crap (reactions and weather) and the fact that unless he moves he will stay just outside range of escorted LBA. I say we go, what say you?!

There are now 4 LCUs at Broome, but given the troop, gun and tank numbers it appears likely the three new units are not front line combat formations.

[Cribtop]

February 2, 1943

Subs

Our subs swarm into the hex where the enemy CVTF was located yesterday and find him with mixed results. I-158 torpedoes CA Canberra, obtaining a critical damage hit! The big cruiser is on fire with heavy damage. Nice. Unfortunately, our remaining subs fail to get at the carriers again. I-155 and I-154 miss DDs in the CVTF and each takes a penetrating hit. Then I-158 is spotted by CV aircraft and engaged on the surface by the escorting SCTF. She doesn't stay on the surface for long under the fire of CA Vincennes and three DDs.

Sunfish misses a tanker near Sasebo but then is DC'd vigorously by a newly upgraded E class with four Type 2 DC launchers. The sub escapes, but the days of DCs exploding above their depth are coming to an end (except for the classes that can dive below even Type 2s).

SE Fleet

Most of the rest of 20th Division is loaded, but today the kamikaze TF retires as it was reported to Allied HQ by coast watchers. One more trip in a few days should do the trick. 95% of the Division is now safe.

Southern Army

No movement by any of the key enemy TFs near Port Hedland and Broome. A major battle is now unavoidable in the estimation of Cribtop Intel.

In a small but important action, we order an IJN PB on picket duty to engage an Allied AM on picket duty. Intention is to drive the enemy picket out of the path of KB and perhaps get one more day of silent approach for the IJN carriers. The brave commander of the Tokihime Maru twice engages AM Warmambool and comes out ahead, gaining two hits and knocking out a gun emplacement on the Aussie ship. Hopefully the enemy will withdraw, but either way the brave little armed merchant punched above her weight class today. Banzai!

Combined Fleet

We paint the approach of KB with many redundant Emilys and Nells, allowing the carriers to shut down all search Ops and approach within 8 hexes of Exmouth undetected. Tomorrow we will "radiate" and approach even closer. We consider a flank move but are wary of Ops points issues if the DDs re-fuel. Unless CF moves his carriers, we will finish 10 hexes away from their perch near Port Hedland. If he moves West, we fight. Cribtop Intel is betting on a battle on 4th February.

Burma

It appears the enemy is gathering at Meiktila for a try at Taung Gyi, so we sweep and bomb the enemy there today. No sign of base forces, meaning the Commonwealth lacks the ability to deploy Allied aircraft for more than a day. IMHO a mistake by CF here not to bring support troops on his Burma adventure.

One hex East of Cox's Bazaar, 17th Army almost destroys an isolated enemy AA unit with a DA. Odds 1518:1, casualties 73(73) versus 128(1). Unfortunately, today two more LCUs arrive at Chittagong and almost double the troop and vehicle count at that base. Hmmm.....

[Cribtop]

The next turn is away. Now we wait. Nerves, nerves... [&:]

One correction - the last entry implied we were already within 8 hexes of Exmouth, but in fact that is the distance we will reach with the next replay. If CF heads for Perth with his CVs, we will hit him tomorrow. Any other action, including no action, and we are looking at a battle on the 4th.

[yamo1]

To-Ra! To-Ra! To-Ra! Mo ichi do!

[GreyJoy]

CAN'T FRACKING (BSG tm) WAIT!!!!

[Cribtop]

Thanks, guys! Love BSG GreyJoy. I often thought during the series' "military" episodes that it was very like "carriers in space."

[jrcar]

Looking forward to hearing the result!

Good luck!

Rob

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

CAN'T FRACKING (BSG tm) WAIT!!!!

So say we all!

[temagic]

*nerves*

[nashvillen]

tick...tock...tick...tock...

:-w

[ny59giants]

What amount of the newer airframes do you have on KB?? Jill?? Judy?? A6M5s??

My Allied opponent had done a raid on Tokyo about this time and after the LBA got some quality hits KB caught up off Midway and chased the rest to just off Pearl. Set the Allies back many, many months. [:D]

[Cribtop]

We have a good amount of A6M3a, but no 5s, Judys or Jills yet. All these either just started building or are on the imminent verge of completing R&D. Then again, we know CF doesn't have Hellcats yet, which is comforting.

[Cribtop]

February 3, 1943

No battle today, but one is now almost certain. Tension levels are so extreme that we are forced to drop the "e" and describe them as Xtreme! And then chug a Mountain Dew (or perhaps a Dewars).

Subs

Drum torpedoes but doesn't sink an xAK near Saishu To. Trigger sinks an xAKL near Ponape.

Combined Fleet

As if the world is holding its breath, nothing much happens outside of the key naval theater off NW Oz.

As anticipated, we end up 8 hexes NW of Exmouth, astride the enemy's path of retreat to his base at Perth. CF dodges our subs by moving a few hexes NNW, bringing his CVs to a tantalizing 9 hexes from KB. Air search spots his TFs, but there are no CAP shoot downs of our Kates and Jakes, which is instructive as to his strength.

We also spot (and several searching Kates claim hits on) a ship identified as CL Adelaide hugging the coast near Port Hedland. Cribtop Intel believes this is the escort TF trying to shepherd the damaged Canberra home.

Finally, a small strike of Vals quickly dispatches the AM Warmambool. There are no other strikes.

At Broome, recon now shows 5 LCUs present. Troop numbers indicate the new arrival is probably a support unit. Four large TFs of various types remain in the Broome hex. They are all in a very tight spot.

We do not spot any enemy search planes, either carrier or land based. The only KB TF with any DL is the CVTF that launched the Val strike, which is at 3/3.

Analysis

In retrospect, perhaps a flank move of a total of 10 hexes would have been ideal, allowing for a sudden strike against the Allied CVs. However, we could not predict CF's exact move or our fuel consumption, so the risk probably outweighed the reward. Further, the enemy carrier hex had heavy rains today, and we still have a huge DL advantage, so perhaps it is for the best.

The question now is what will CF do. He is in a pickle, no doubt. His basic options are to stand and fight (fine by me) or to run. If he runs, he probably concedes the Broome task forces, meaning the loss of 2 CVE, the whole UK battle line, and two big, but probably empty, transport TFs with their escorts. These ships would come under assault from KB, LBA and three powerful IJN SCTFs. Little to nothing will survive. In addition, this will set up the isolation of the Broome beachhead and doom the invasion here.

Of course, we want his damn CVs! Search planes have a high DL on him and show a strong cruiser SCTF leading a CVTF with four CVs and one CVE reported. Sounds a lot like what Cribtop Intel predicted would be present. Barring spectacular luck, this force can at best hope for a losing exchange battle with KB. It is possible CF thinks he is only facing a mini-KB since he only spotted one task force and only 13 Vals and 15 Zeros flew against the Warmambool, but given my tendency to keep KB together, we must assume he knows the whole enchilada is present. We therefore conclude he will try to run. We will further assume he has the gas for at least one flank move, because if he doesn't he is toast almost no matter what he does.

What are his options? Basically he can run east toward Broome, which really doesn't do much but delay the inevitable, try to slip around Exmouth and down toward Perth or out toward open sea, or go for the surprise and flee NW toward Java, hoping to later slip south into open sea.

CF doesn't seem like the kind that would run NW. He will assume correctly that IJN LBA from Denpasar or Java will hit him hard. We will have 45 Zeros and about 75 G3M3 Nells covering that route. In addition, these planes will able to intervene if he stays put. We will also break off two DDs to move flank into his NW line of movement in hopes of triggering an Ops point siphoning surface engagement.

He could run East, hoping to buy time or even run the gauntlet of LBA to the Torres Strait, but again that doesn't seem like CF. He will correctly assume that LBA from Lomblen and Timor (and then from Meruake, which also has an Air HQ) will inflict high losses over this long and dubious escape route. We would also block the Torres Strait with a sub horde and he will know that, too. Two Betty groups, a Val unit and a 45 plane Zero Hikotai will watch this avenue.

It seems most likely he will run West past Exmouth with his CVs. A 16 hex flank move could put him well down the coast of Oz if he turns SW, or out to sea if he continues West or WSW. KB will thus guard this route, which is hard. The truth is he might get away. Our current plan is to move a bit closer to Exmouth on an "offline" path to minimize the odds of a surface intercept with his SCTF. KB will be able to strike him if he stays to fight or runs at normal speed, but we have to slow him down somehow or he could slip past at flank. Our plan is to send the 4 CA SCTF accompanying KB to park in the hex NW of Exmouth. Our subs nearby allow us to plot move paths and it looks like all reasonable attempts to run West will pass through this hex. Hopefully a night engagement, even if it only gets at the leading SCTF, will leave the enemy CVs in range by burning Ops points and fuel and perhaps causing a weird retreat path. One factor in favor of this move is that by chance the moon is at 0%. While this could help his radar, it could also mean a devastating long lance attack from close range.

If I was CF, I would have the CVs flee West at flank while the Broome TFs suck it up and run East all the way through the Torres Strait. Those boys are in trouble no matter what, and it seems that East is the best chance for some of them to survive. Then again, I have a higher risk tolerance than CF, and this may not occur to him.

The only other choice for KB, IMHO, is to go all in that he will move flank and sail further south. This puts us out of position if he does anything else, however. A further argument against the move is that we would have to move flank ourselves in order to cover the projected end point of his run, which again is fraught with peril.

What does the readership think? What would y'all do?

[FeurerKrieg]

I'd move your CV's as little as possible. The risk of making the flank move south and 1) getting nothing or 2) some refueling fluke causing problems is too high IMO.

If his CV's get away and you demolish lots of transports and surface ships that is still a good haul. Allies need lots of transports and surface ships as the war goes on after all. Less heavies means those forts and CD guns can slow him down that much more.

[Cribtop]

FK, that is my premise exactly. At present we are only planning to move KB three hexes.

I am willing to move the CATF at flank to the point NW of Exmouth. If CF doesn't run West, they will be safe and we have Oilers nearby. If he does run, their efforts could lead to a major strategic victory.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Feurer Krieg

I'd move your CV's as little as possible. The risk of making the flank move south and 1) getting nothing or 2) some refueling fluke causing problems is too high IMO.

On the flip side, there's always a chance CF could suffer a refueling fluke that leaves him exposed to a moderate move by KB. You might just get lucky. I'm glad I don't have to make the call. [:'(]

[Cribtop]

Agreed, Sqz, and I'm trying hard to make that happen with SCTFs hanging out in the most likely avenues of retreat. Imagine a good night surface engagement, re-fueled DDs, no Ops points, and the USN hanging in space 6 hexes from a loaded for bear KB. I'm not saying this will happen, but it could happen. Then I would enter Nirvana through a process of transcendental sublimation.

All fevered dreaming aside, it's a tough choice. Hammer CF's carriers now and he is stuck in neutral for much of 1943, which is probably fatal for him as I will run out the clock. Then again, as FK points out, second prize is an all out slaughter of valuable shipping and the isolation of an invasion force. Not bad...

[Mikawa]

Cribtop, been following your great AAR for sometime. Excellent reading!

Agree with advice, I would move as little as possible to preserve ops points.

Good luck. Banzai!

[Cribtop]

Welcome and thanks, Mikawa! The orders for KB are complete, and I stuck with the three hex move plan. Should finish the other theaters in 20 minutes or so. Then we hit the send button and the die is cast!

Who will cover themselves in glory tomorrow? Quien sabe, señor.

The Z flag is raised over Carrier Akagi. All pilots man your planes! Banzai! Banzai! Banzai!

[PaxMondo]