OT: Who is to blame for the failure to anticipate the Pearl Harbor attack?

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slinkytwf
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RE: OT: Who is to blame for the failure to anticipate the Pearl Harbor attack?

Post by slinkytwf »

ORIGINAL: jmalter

hi Olorin,

there's a lot of literature available, but the "who is to blame?" topic would focus too much on individuals (who might rightly/wrongly be accused of failing their responsibilities). but you might profit by examining a time-line of events, to include the military/diplomatic/economic events as tensions between IJ & US ratcheted up.

US re-basing the BBs to Pearl, the fall of France, IJ occupation of Indochina, US economic sanctions & air reinforcements to the Phillipines, the Washington negotiations, etc.

you should look at SecState Cordell Hull & the trade sanctions, i think that was the US action that convinced IJ to tilt to the option for war.

If pursuing this tangent in greater depth, also consult Akira Iriye's works for a more Japanese perspective, notably "The Origins of the Second World War in Asia and the Pacific." He has also written a book about Pearl Harbor, but I have not read it, so I can't recommemd it one way or another.
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The Gnome
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RE: OT: Who is to blame for the failure to anticipate the Pearl Harbor attack?

Post by The Gnome »

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Dili

I think the biggest blame should go to whom not implemented an early warning system in Pearl Harbor.
Taranto was 1 year earlier...
warspite1

They had one - the aircraft were caught on radar..... Remember the line from Tora Tora Tora? "What shall we do sir?"....

"Don't worry about it"


Well, they had the technology, but not the system. That to me is one of the great feats of the British, not just building radar post, but a complete integrated air defense network. I see this all the time in my field of work. So many businesses think they can add computers to their business and they "win", but so many fail to integrate systems around their technology.
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RE: OT: Who is to blame for the failure to anticipate the Pearl Harbor attack?

Post by AW1Steve »

Blame should go from everyone from the Commander in chief , to the young LT manning the Ft. Shafter information center. Almost everyone who had information, mis-read it, misjudged it , or through "wishfull thinking" saw it to mean something else. The only people who pretty much called it right were Admiral Richardson (who was fired because he defied FDR in pressing his views) and Admiral Bellenger and General Martin who in their "Bellenger/Martin report" pretty much nailed the Japanese plan to a T.

FDR/Hull/Stimson/Knox/Marshall all pretty much saw war in the PI as the most likely place an attack would fall. NONE of them belived in would be at PH. They honestly felt it was impossible. Gen. Short felt that the Japanese couldn't possibly do a Carrier attack , but WAS convinced sabotage would happen...and acted as he saw it accordingly. Kimmel considered it unlikely , but felt a calculated risk was warranted by holding the BB's till the CV's got back. The RADAR/operation CTR saw the raid as a group of bomber they were expecting.

You can't fault people for "reading the tea leaves" incorrectly. Then OR now. Lapses of intelligence occur. But even more common are misinterpreting intelligence mistakes. Had the Japanese done the expected and the American government dropped the ball, then I could see screaming for blood. But because people are not capable of unconventional thinking , can we justify lining them up against the wall and shooting them?

In my opinion , it's very apparent who was to blame for the failures of that day. The Japanese Empire. [:D]
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RE: OT: Who is to blame for the failure to anticipate the Pearl Harbor attack?

Post by AW1Steve »

ORIGINAL: Dili

I think the biggest blame should go to whom not implemented an early warning system in Pearl Harbor.
Taranto was 1 year earlier...

Yes , but the US RADAR program was in it's infancy. The British had given the US a thyrotrone less than a year before. In many respects the US RADAR program was no less great an enterprise then the Mahattan project.
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RE: OT: Who is to blame for the failure to anticipate the Pearl Harbor attack?

Post by AW1Steve »

ORIGINAL: The Gnome

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Dili

I think the biggest blame should go to whom not implemented an early warning system in Pearl Harbor.
Taranto was 1 year earlier...
warspite1

They had one - the aircraft were caught on radar..... Remember the line from Tora Tora Tora? "What shall we do sir?"....

"Don't worry about it"


Well, they had the technology, but not the system. That to me is one of the great feats of the British, not just building radar post, but a complete integrated air defense network. I see this all the time in my field of work. So many businesses think they can add computers to their business and they "win", but so many fail to integrate systems around their technology.


And I'm sure you sadly need to point out the old axiom about computers....GIGO (Garbage In , garbage out).
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The Gnome
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RE: OT: Who is to blame for the failure to anticipate the Pearl Harbor attack?

Post by The Gnome »

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

And I'm sure you sadly need to point out the old axiom about computers....GIGO (Garbage In , garbage out).

You have no idea, I get cold sweats thinking about stuff like that. The lowest common denominator of any technology is the person using it.
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RE: OT: Who is to blame for the failure to anticipate the Pearl Harbor attack?

Post by AW1Steve »

ORIGINAL: The Gnome

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

And I'm sure you sadly need to point out the old axiom about computers....GIGO (Garbage In , garbage out).

You have no idea, I get cold sweats thinking about stuff like that. The lowest common denominator of any technology is the person using it.


Oh but I do. The worst words I used to hear in my Naval career were often "please explain to the Admiral/Commodore/Captain/CO why you can't do what he wants. And explain it simply". [X(][:(]
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RE: OT: Who is to blame for the failure to anticipate the Pearl Harbor attack?

Post by The Gnome »

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

ORIGINAL: The Gnome

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

And I'm sure you sadly need to point out the old axiom about computers....GIGO (Garbage In , garbage out).

You have no idea, I get cold sweats thinking about stuff like that. The lowest common denominator of any technology is the person using it.


Oh but I do. The worst words I used to hear in my Naval career were often "please explain to the Admiral/Commodore/Captain/CO why you can't do what he wants. And explain it simply". [X(][:(]

Hah, does that hit close to home! (and if I wasn't laughing I'd be crying)
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RE: OT: Who is to blame for the failure to anticipate the Pearl Harbor attack?

Post by Wirraway_Ace »

ORIGINAL: LargeSlowTarget

ORIGINAL: Justus2
Prange actually wrote two other books on the topic, one of them Pearl Harbor: The Verdict of History would probably deal more with what you are looking for.

Exactly. Prange concluded "There is enough blame for everyone" - starting with American voters being responsible for a parsimonious congress not providing enough money for the Armed forces; widespread racism coupled with underestimation of Japan / overconfidence in US power; wrong estimates, assessements, communication failures etc. at and between the White House, the Pentagon, Office of Naval Intelligence, the commanders at Pearl etc. The entire issue is so complex that you cannot put the blame on one or two individuals.

My view is different. The leadership of the United States quite clearly understood the strategic situation vis-a-vis Japan. They underestimated Japanese skill and daring, but were completely correct about the outcome of a war. It was the Japanese that disasterously misjudged their opponents.

The lives and ships lost at Pearl Harbor were the tiniest downpayment on what the war would bring. In the grand sweep of history, why should one care who was responsible for the lack of preparedness of the defenses at Pearl Harbor? The much more important question is why the leadership of Japan miscalculated so tragically for their people.
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RE: OT: Who is to blame for the failure to anticipate the Pearl Harbor attack?

Post by slinkytwf »

ORIGINAL: Wirraway_Ace

My view is different. The leadership of the United States quite clearly understood the strategic situation vis-a-vis Japan. They underestimated Japanese skill and daring, but were completely correct about the outcome of a war. It was the Japanese that disasterously misjudged their opponents.

The lives and ships lost at Pearl Harbor were the tiniest downpayment on what the war would bring. In the grand sweep of history, why should one care who was responsible for the lack of preparedness of the defenses at Pearl Harbor? The much more important question is why the leadership of Japan miscalculated so tragically for their people.

Saburo Ienaga went into this in detail. Earlier, a posted mentioned that the US had underestimated the Japanese because of an underlying current of racism, but the reverse was also true. According to Ienaga, ever since the Meiji Restoration, much of the Japanese population, especially the military, had been propandized into believing in their own cultural and racial superiority, and the hubris it inspired in the military junta's minds led them to think that we'd just roll over after getting our nose bloodied.
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RE: OT: Who is to blame for the failure to anticipate the Pearl Harbor attack?

Post by AW1Steve »

ORIGINAL: slinkytwf

ORIGINAL: Wirraway_Ace

My view is different. The leadership of the United States quite clearly understood the strategic situation vis-a-vis Japan. They underestimated Japanese skill and daring, but were completely correct about the outcome of a war. It was the Japanese that disasterously misjudged their opponents.

The lives and ships lost at Pearl Harbor were the tiniest downpayment on what the war would bring. In the grand sweep of history, why should one care who was responsible for the lack of preparedness of the defenses at Pearl Harbor? The much more important question is why the leadership of Japan miscalculated so tragically for their people.

Saburo Ienaga went into this in detail. Earlier, a posted mentioned that the US had underestimated the Japanese because of an underlying current of racism, but the reverse was also true. According to Ienaga, ever since the Meiji Restoration, much of the Japanese population, especially the military, had been propandized into believing in their own cultural and racial superiority, and the hubris it inspired in the military junta's minds led them to think that we'd just roll over after getting our nose bloodied.


When a society feels that suicide is very often the only redress for a insult or injustice, is it surprising that a extremely dangerous (not that far removed from Russian roulette) action might be acceptable? I certainly can accept that a society that treasures the 47 Ronin taking that sort of action.

The USA on the other hand might instead of sending a "Crack Suicide squad" ("There! That will show them!) , might adopt the the war cry "Sue the bastards!". [:D] Sorry for being irreverent for a moment. Just channeling "The Life of Brian". [:D]
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RE: OT: Who is to blame for the failure to anticipate the Pearl Harbor attack?

Post by WO Katsuki »


as a japanese i have some opinions, but they would not be popular here

is there censorship? or can i answer freely
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RE: OT: Who is to blame for the failure to anticipate the Pearl Harbor attack?

Post by AW1Steve »

ORIGINAL: WO Katsuki


as a japanese i have some opinions, but they would not be popular here

is there censorship? or can i answer freely


You can always answer freely. And the rules still apply. Profanity WILL be censored. And management doesn't like personal attacks. I for one, would be VERY interested in your opinions. [:)]
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RE: OT: Who is to blame for the failure to anticipate the Pearl Harbor attack?

Post by spence »

I think so long as you don't get into current politics too deeply your perspective would be greatly appreciated.

Personally I don't think the military leaders in Japan gave the slightest thought to benefit of the general population of Japan. The society had not evolved beyond the point where the general population was viewed as serfs whose purpose in life was to provide for the benefit of the leadership.
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RE: OT: Who is to blame for the failure to anticipate the Pearl Harbor attack?

Post by slinkytwf »

ORIGINAL: WO Katsuki

as a japanese i have some opinions, but they would not be popular here

is there censorship? or can i answer freely

Onegai shimasu!

I for one would love to hear your opinions. That's why I mentioned a couple of the Japanese historians I had read who had written on the subject. They are frequently overlooked in American discussions of the era and had much to add to our collective understanding.

Arigato gozaimasu.
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RE: OT: Who is to blame for the failure to anticipate the Pearl Harbor attack?

Post by WO Katsuki »


i think the oil embargo was a scheme to trick the U.S. to fight hitler

both our peoples were stupid, we wasted many lives in 4 years

and spent the next 40 years together against the communists
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RE: OT: Who is to blame for the failure to anticipate the Pearl Harbor attack?

Post by slinkytwf »

ORIGINAL: WO Katsuki
i think the oil embargo was a scheme to trick the U.S. to fight hitler

both our peoples were stupid, we wasted many lives in 4 years

and spent the next 40 years together against the communists

Possibly, however, it was a direct response to Japan occupying the southern part of Vichy Indochina. From what I've read, I think that had more to do with it than the European issue. I've not seen any documentary evidence to prove that it was designed to accelerate the US entry into the European conflict. The Pan-American Neutrality Declaration had a more direct effect.

I agree with you that it was stupid. I also think the same thing could be said of most conflicts in human history.

I'm also glad that our countries are now allies and that the war ended up connecting us in ways that never would have happened without those horribly tragic events.

Thank you for sharing your perspective.
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RE: OT: Who is to blame for the failure to anticipate the Pearl Harbor attack?

Post by decaro »

ORIGINAL: Dili

Well several people anticipated Pearl Harbor ...

Col. Billy Mitchell for one, and after the Army can'd him, the US apologized to Japan.

Today that sounds all too familiar.
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RE: OT: Who is to blame for the failure to anticipate the Pearl Harbor attack?

Post by Cribtop »

Based on some reading on the run up to war, while there was hubris on the Japanese side, there was also an intentional acceptance of a potentially nation-wrecking defeat because the alternative of backing down in China was deemed an unacceptable loss of both face and geopolitical position. A "bet the company" move, so to speak.
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RE: OT: Who is to blame for the failure to anticipate the Pearl Harbor attack?

Post by slinkytwf »

ORIGINAL: Joe D.

ORIGINAL: Dili

Well several people anticipated Pearl Harbor ...

Col. Billy Mitchell for one, and after the Army can'd him, the US apologized to Japan.

Today that sounds all too familiar.

I have to disagree with you on this statement, as I do not see that it is adequately supported by historical fact.

Mitchell's comment was not the reason he was drummed out of the Army, nor was it an accurate prediction of what came to be the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.

Mitchell speculated that, "Japan may unleash a war in the Pacific. She could attack [NB] America by striking first at Hawaii, some fine Sunday morning." Mitchell was talking about an attack on America, not on the US Navy. It was clearly implied from his language that he meant they could use Hawaii as a springboard. The US Pacific Fleet was not rebased to Pearl Harbor until the summer of 1940. Even then, the possibility of an attack wasn't ignored. In 1933, the War Department staged an attack exercise against the base (which succeeded, and which resulted in the defenses being substantially upgraded over the next decade).

Mitchell was court-martialed for insubordination in 1925, and it was not over his Hawaii comment. In 1925, Japan had not yet begun their second wave of imperial expansion (began in 1931), and its mention was likely because Japan was the only other Industrial nation in the Pacific Rim and a natural competitor, given the US conquest of the Philippines (before the Russo-Japanese War in 1903). It was over his taking his spat with the War Department over their building more battleships instead of aircraft, a conflict that had raged for several years, despite Mitchell proving to them that aircraft were destined to play a critical role in future warfare. (Ironically, MacArthur sat on the panel.)

That being said, Mitchell's treatment was clearly short-sighted, counter-productive, ego-driven, and typical of what comes whenever someone challenges an established bureucracy backed by economic interests vested in building more battleships.

On the question of an apology being issued to Japan over his comments, I cannot find any reference to it, but I'm having to rely on the Internet for my search, an inadequate tool for accurate research. Where did you find that historical fact lying about?
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