ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
It did lock down all of the AGC reserves. To that extent it succeeded as a diversion. But that begs the question: was it actually intended as a diversion? Or was it a failed offensive that nevertheless had major side benefits? And could have it succeeded as a diversion at less cost in blood and treasure than actually happened?
According to Beevor's sources, it was not only a diversion, but a maskirovka directed at the very highest levels, i.e., Stalin, and hidden from the general in charge of the offensive -- and the Germans were being fed information about it by a Soviet double agent to insure they'd respond to it. This is astonishing if true, and completely new information. But I am skeptical.
So am I. Would you really use your best general for a diversion? But who can really say with Stalin. The fact that forces were allocated for Jupiter, (aimed at 3rd Pz Army), leads me to believe that it wasn't just a diversion. But what do I know? I've read Glantz/Erickson.
It didn't do what Uranus did, even with the side benefits. So it got buried.