The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please)

[Tarhunnas]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

If you keep checkerboarding he'll just keep gobbling stuff up like this, Tarhunnas. Checkerboards don't work against players who know how to herd them. I quit doing this a while ago.

Switch over to picketing with a strong MLR well to the east of that. Although that may not be consistent with your self imposed house rules.

Oh, I think it would. Especially as I've already put up a stiff fight I think.

[timmyab]

Search long and hard for a way to break those pockets.
Failing that I think you may have to picket the South and move most of the Southern front North East.Look to make a stand from the Sinyukha river Northwards and put strength into the good terrain especially the rough hexes.There's one in particular just to the North of the town of Lysyanka which is a right pain in the but for the Axis player.
Given the circumstances, I wouldn't call that running away.

[notenome]

MichaelT might be doing something I've long wanted to do in a GC AAR as Axis, a Moscow first drive. His 4th (or is it 1st? The AGN one) Panzergroup has achieved operational flexibility, he can either strike north or Pskov or strike west through Velkie Luki. You might be facing three Panzergroups in the Center, and I'd advise you to give priority there, and SW front, where your situation is quite poor. I'd follow Flavs advice and leave SW to its own devices, spread them out to slow down the Germans and concentrate on a Dnepr line. Just don't send anything across the river.

[glvaca]

Well, seriously, I think you can't.
I'm not saying it's not the sensible thing to do, but you agreed not too.
It's your call, but that's my honest opinion.

[Flaviusx]

It is 4 PG up north. The initial deployment of the panzer groups run ass backwards, 4-3-2-1 from north to south. I never understood this arrangement, must be some kind of General Staff convention.

You find even odder arrangements with the Red Army. In the late war period, for example, the Ukrainian Fronts in 1944 run 1-2-3 from north to south, which is reasonable enough. (A 4. Ukrainian Front gets inserted in the Carpathians later on between 1. and 2. Ukrainian, but set that aside for the moment.)

But the Belorussian Fronts run the opposite way, from south to north, as do the Baltic Fronts, totally inconsistent.

[Tarhunnas]

ORIGINAL: Klydon

I wonder how long he will continue to leave/make use of broken down motorized/panzer divisions.

Not for long I'd guess!

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
Red Army lacks the forces to counter it at present. Tarhunnas doesn't even have a coherent front anywhere.

Oh yeah? Where there's a will there's a way!

The valiant 31st Rifle Corps heads a counterattack that drives back part of 14th Panzer division and breaks the pocket!

In the southern corner of the pocket, the now reinvigorated 5th Mech Corps punches out to the southeast and retreats the Grossdeutschland Regiment! The way is now open to displace a Panzer HQ and isolate the German panzer spearhead!

The enemy will reestablish the pocket in a turn of course, but their panzer gropup will suffer fatigue and have a poor supply situation next turn.

[Tarhunnas]

The other pockets are unbreakable unfortunately. The only other mischief I can do is retreat a couple of unwary Rumanians (It's not even worth delaying down west of Odessa, the Rumanians have severe trouble taking undefended terrain. Can they even march in step?).
In one case the attack exposes a German HQ to displacement. Always something!

Map of the south after German moves. I continue to rely on a checkerboard west of the Dnepr. And for the doom-prophets in the audience, no, he won't cross the Dnepr! His panzers will be tired, low on fuel, and spreading out the regiments has a penalty when you want to collect them together and go forward again. And my checkerboard is deep enough.

[Tarhunnas]

And the north and center after Soviet moves. Checkerboard behind the Berezina. I think the Dnepr will hold. Uncertain what he will do with the concentration west of Vitebsk, he might go anywhere, and I can't be strong everywhere, but in my experience, the panzers will need a breather on turn 3.

Note that I try always to put a Soviet unit next to every panzer stack, to prevent them resting and to maximize attrition. It also will force them to attack away that Soviet unit or suffer the penalty of moving out of ZOC. I think it works, it costs Soviet units, but after 5 or 6 turns, the panzers will be appreciably weaker. Especially if you can keep the German infantry at a distance so the panzers will have to do their own attacking as much as possible.

[Flaviusx]

The problem here is that you are doubling down and risking getting even more units trapped, Tarhunnas.

I agree with the practice of placing zocs everywhere and especially on the mobile units. But I prefer doing this by mere pickets, which limit your liability, rather than throwing more and more units into a checkerboard that stands on the precipice of disaster. A point will come when it tips over.

I still predict he will cross the Dnepr in the south on or about turn 6. The only question in my mind is how much he bags along the way west of the Dnepr. More rather than less given these moves.

[Tarhunnas]

Yes, to some extent I am raising the stakes, and increasing my losses, but I am also wearing down the Germans.  I can replace my losses, the Germans can't.
 
It is also a matter of establishing fear and respect. Once the Germans have had a couple of mobile regiments or even divisions pushed back, they will be much more careful, which will benefit me in the long run.

[timmyab]

well done in the South.That should slow him down a bit.
I've noticed how powerful Soviet counterattacks are.I usually try to counterattack at 2-1 odds even in 41 to be on the safe side, but I needn't bother it seems because they nearly always get turned around in the Soviet favor with German CVs often plummeting.I've yet to have a counterattack fail.
Interesting situation in the North.Are his tanks fueled up?If not then the loss of momentum could prove serious up there.Maybe he's going for a Southern strategy.

[notenome]

Nice counterattack, I agree with the aggressive mentality. Though it can backfire

[Flaviusx]

People read too much into CVs. It's better to consider raw numbers when planning a counterattack.

My rule of thumb is this: 3 divisions can push back a regiment in open terrain, assuming the +1 rule. I don't really care about the CVs on either side, these are notional representations of unit strength prior to combat. Morale/fatigue/supply are also important, and if these are sketchy, stuff gets kicked back even easier. 30,000 Russians yelling hurrah against a tired out panzer regiment with 5k guys is a fight the Soviets should win on raw numbers alone due to the peculiarities of the combat model. (If Pieter were here he would tell you why this drives him crazy.)

[Encircled]

It is also a matter of establishing fear and respect. Once the Germans have had a couple of mobile regiments or even divisions pushed back, they will be much more careful, which will benefit me in the long run.

Fully agree

[notenome]

Yeah, I try to use a 3 to 4 to 1 rule for counterattacking, in guns and men. If I have that, and good C & C, I should generally win.

[Balou]

Tarhunnas, what units are you preferably using in your zoc-game ?

[Tarhunnas]

ORIGINAL: Balou

Tarhunnas, what units are you preferably using in your zoc-game ?

Most of the time, it will be whatever is to hand. The units doing the ZOC-ing will be most at risk from encirclements, so if I can chose, I take NKVD regiments or armor divisions for exposed positions.

[Tarhunnas]

Turn 3. Things are not going well! I am getting a lot more units pocketed, and the pockets look unbreakable. Michael T is proving an extremely able opponent, and is playing very well indeed! Flaviusx was right, checkerboard won't do against this kind of opponent. Indeed, I am getting second thoughts about fighting forward - that too might not do against this kind of opponent.

Map after recon but before Soviet moves.

[Tarhunnas]

Map of the center after Soviet moves. I patch together a defense at the landbridge, but I am uncertain if it will hold. I am running out of units. The one thing that makes me able to put together a front is that there is no threat at all to Leningrad.

I am well forward on evacuations though, I have not lost any ARM except at Kiev, though I don't expect that to last in the long run. I expect further pressure in the Moscow direction, so I evacuate Bryansk, Ordzhonikidzegrad and Kaluga this turn.

[Callistrid]

Here is another example of why is stupid to stand and fight with the soviet on the first 1-5 turn