The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please)

[janh]

Subscribed, for certain. I hope Michael will give you a hard time, and you him of course too!

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
That's the real issue here, the surprise turn itself is badly designed.

For a second I was tempted to agree with you. I some way you are right. You could prevent the overly impacting Lvov and Minsk successes by redesigning the surprise turn as well, but then in later turns similarly implausible outcomes remain still in the cards, even if they are less crucial than the first turn and can be mitigated better by the Soviet.

In my opinion this is still an artifact from the crudeness of the I-go-U-go. You can only blind-guess and preposition units, hoping the Axis will just stumble on them (or the Soviet, in the inverted situation). Yet on a time-scale of 1 week it is not credible that any side units couldn't redeploy at least within their ZOC, if not even a few hexes further to deploy in the axis of approach, or set up an ambush or so -- exactly like the reserve mode order. That holds true for both sides. I hope they'll re-investigate the solution they implemented in WitP after the experience with War in the Pacific for this phenomenon. They would get the I-Go-U-Go quite a step closer to mimicking simultaneous real-time events.

[Tarhunnas]

I wouldn't say the surprise turn is badly designed at all. It just needs some adjustment. The Advance in AGN and AGC is reasonable, it is AGS that is problematical. I would suggest:

* Cut 5 MP off AGS panzers.
* Randomize Soviet setup slightly (to prevent those perfect openings rehearsed 100 times against the AI).

And before someone says the AI cannot cope with randomization, it's the easiset thing in the world. Vs human opponent the Soviet setup is randomized, vs the AI everything is fixed. Presto!

Edit, but with such a change there would need to be some offsetting change to balance things, otherwise I think the Soviets will get things too easy. For example further cut soviet rail cap on turn one by another 50%. It's way too easy for the Sovs to rail things around on turn 1. As it is now, it's their only hope, but it shouldn't be that way.

[notenome]

Offering my 5 cents on the turn 1 issue.

I think the main thing is that in that first week of Barbarossa, soviet C&C as well the logistics system collapsed. The soviets simply were not ready for war on this scale. This meant that resistance was very uneven. Soviet resistance ran the gamut from heroic (Brest, the infamous KV of Rasenei), to fierce yet disorganized counterattacks (Battle of Brody) to total collapse. In the end, the German advance (as in much of the war) was due less to outfighting the soviets then to outmaneuvering them.

As such I'd suggest that that the combat capacity of soviet units be increased, and especially in the south, many of the mobile units be put on reserve mode. On the other hand, soviet rail capacity and supply net should be lowered, to reflect that the problem wasn't so much on the ground (though there were plenty of problems there) but that the Soviet infrastructure was completely and hopelessly unready for a war on this scale.

Basically, as far as the early war goes, I see both sides having distinct a-historical advantages. On the one hand, he Axis units are a little too good at fighting (at launch it was the opposite) and on the other hand the Soviets have way too much strategic flexibility and mobility, being able to move their units with too much ease. Another solution would be to set a lot of soviet units to static and then increase Soviet AP points for the first 4 or 5 turns. Or to model in the devastating impact of Axis interdiction on soviet troop movements.

Sorry for the highjack.

[Flaviusx]

Lowering the AGS movement rates might prevent reaching the Romanian border, but it won't stop you from making a big pocket. Nor does it stop folks from borrowing the AGC panzers. AGC has mobile units to spare, and can get most of what it wants accomplished with as little as half of what it starts with, which is why you see AGN and AGS steal armor in almost every game almost from the getgo. (Not this one, though, which is curious. Not sure what's going on with AGN here.)

The surprise turn needs to work for all three army groups. 2 out of three doesn't cut it here. I think we need to ditch it altogether and make a special abreviated pre attack turn with an equally abbreviated Soviet reaction move. Then a regular turn to follow. The scaling in terms of time and space just doesn't quite match up if you try to shoehorn everything into a single surprise turn.

[notenome]

Well what stopped AGS from making a megapocket (along the lines of what happens in the game) were the massed soviet counterattacks, these succeeded in delaying AGS but also wrecked soviet mobile forces, leading to the smaller Uman pocket, which then gave the Germans a fairly free ride until they reached the Dnepr, which they simply could not crack.

[Flaviusx]

ORIGINAL: notenome

Well what stopped AGS from making a megapocket (along the lines of what happens in the game) were the massed soviet counterattacks, these succeeded in delaying AGS but also wrecked soviet mobile forces, leading to the smaller Uman pocket, which then gave the Germans a fairly free ride until they reached the Dnepr, which they simply could not crack.

Hence why I'm liking a special attack turn and reaction move where both sides have limited movement.

Bear in mind this curious fact: the first turn in WITE is 3 days. Yet units are given movement rates equivalent to those of a full week turn. (Well, the Axis is, anyways. the Soviets get something like 2/3-3/4 of their MPs, which is still very generous from a scaling standpoint.) This mismatch in scaling I believe is the fundamental problem, especially in the context of an IGOUGO system.

[notenome]

Im inclined to agree with you. It took a week for the panzer to reach Minsk, and the Dvina. 2 half turns with, let's say, halved movement for the Axis and quarter mps for the Sovs, with no Sov rail on the first turn, would be interesting.

[HITMAN202]

I've recently been a close follower of Michael T (probably due to the absence of Q-Ball and Pelton) and will be watching

this closely. I think trying to take Riga is a big, big gambit (and fails 30-40% in my test runs) and its safest to isolate

all SU south of the Daugava. But Michael T should've taken a few Pz/Mot div and "bump" the Daugava a few times to

control a few hexes north of the river. I don't think the SU can convert those hexes back to their control. But either

which way, Michael T is tempting Tarhunnas to defend the Daugava, which apparently he's doing. I think Trahunnas is

making a mistake because... 1) Pz/Mot will cross the river on turn #2 and eventually isolate most of the units 2) with

help from the Ger infantry on turn #3 , and 3) fewer units will be available to defend Pskov, fewer available to defend

the Luga, and then fewer to the defense of Leningrad itself.


Setting up a good screening defense in Pskov/surrounding area to make a major stance on the Luga is , I think, the

best. It takes 5 to 6 turns for a good number of German infantry to attack the river's defense (and may need a Pz

HQBU to garantee success.) The Soviet player has a lot of time to build a good defense there. Michael T. has baited

Tarhunnas successfully. Let's see if he can squeeze out of the trap.

[glvaca]

I see what you mean and you may be right that that is his intention.
I doubt if he'll get to Pskov on turn 2 though. Crossing a major river in enemy zoc or control costs a lot of movement.
Will be interesting to see whether your prediction comes true!

[HITMAN202]

It's not the issue of Pskov falling on turn #2 (if it does, the Soviets have made a mistake, not a fatal mistake, but a mistake.) The key to taking Leningrad quickly (again apart from the SU leaving it unoccupied) is to quickly get infantry (particularly the 1st and 2 nd Corp) on the Neva. The AGN PZ/Mot units must open the highway to the city by quickly converting hexes (the infantry following in their tracks.) A good defense on the Luga may keep the German infantry from getting to the Neva until the 7 th or 8 th turn. But it would probably take 2 lines of 1-2 level forts and 10-15 or so good defenders to achieve this.

Typically the German PZ/Mot cross the Daugava on turn #1, convert hexes leading to Pskov on turn #2, and then on turn #3 open up the city and surrounding area to infantry assault (infantry following the Pz/Mot unit each turn.) Usually AGN's Pz Corp aren't strong enough to force the issue. Pskov is captured on turn #4, the Luga line hit on turn #5.

If the SU is tempted by a brazen soul, like Michael T., to defend the Daugava on turn #1, I think at the very most, the German infantry will initially be set back 1/2 turn in their march to Leningrad. However the loss of 8-12 units in a forward defense will so weaken the critical Luga defensive line that the Germans will overpower this barrier with the end result that the Neva will be reached earlier.

[governato]

* Randomize Soviet setup slightly (to prevent those perfect openings rehearsed 100 times against the AI).

I totally agree. This option has been suggested a few times before and it would prevent players from perfecting the first move. Would it be easy enough to code? Would any of the developers comment?

[Tarhunnas]

I started a separate thread on possible ways to prevent the Lvov pocket and improve the first turn.

[Flaviusx]

Hitman does bring up a good possible explanation for the curious opener up north.

And I agree with him: my response to this would be to merely picket the Germans up here and otherwise pile everything on the Pskov line. I don't see much point in trying to defend the Baltics proper. I'd dump a bunch of NKVD here, but otherwise send the real units to the Pskov area. (Actually, I go farther than this. The Pskov area I consider to be a place to make an outright stand, not merely screen. The Luga line is worthless. After the Pskov line falls, the next fallback position is Leningrad-Novgorod. The western end of the Luga is just pocket bait and not worth defending.)

However, this may or may not be consistent with the spirit of the forward defense house rule. (As with my idea in the south to starve SW Front of reinforcements rather than throwing good money after bad.) Tarhunnas may feel honorbound to attempt a stand at the Dvina.

[HITMAN202]

I'll get egg on my face for disagreeing with you (you're insight into this game is amazing... I have played a lot of chess.. am a class "A" player.... and though I couldn't play like a master ... knew it when I saw it ... and you are a master at this game !!!) but level 2 forts on the Luga pose more of a dilemma to the Krauts than a weaker stand at Pskov. As I said earlier, German infantry can hit Pskov hard on turn #4. In fact the 6 AGN Pz divisions usually can cross the Velikaya on turn 3 and open the door,so to speak, for their slower brothers. There are a lot of clear hexes north of Pskov to boot. I think that the 2 extra turns preparing a defensive line on the Luga river (with better terrain to boot) offers the best chance in slowing up the German juggernaut.

[Tarhunnas]

I am pretty certain he will not reach Pskov with the delay-checkerboard I put up behind the river. In fact, my guess is he will not get very far beyond the Dvina, AND that he might not really want that. I think he is aiming more east. But I might have to eat my words here, because I have the next turn in my inbox (or rather, on the server), but cannot look at it until I get home. I am not sure if I am dreading or anticipating the opening of the turn... [:'(] As the Soviets, any turn can be one of those "oh sh*t"-turns when you open the turn to find you got half your army surrounded. I will get my smelling salt ready before I open up the turn [;)].

[Panzer Meyer]

ORIGINAL: HITMAN202

I'll get egg on my face for disagreeing with you (you're insight into this game is amazing... I have played a lot of chess.. am a class "A" player.... and though I couldn't play like a master ... knew it when I saw it ... and you are a master at this game !!!) but level 2 forts on the Luga pose more of a dilemma to the Krauts than a weaker stand at Pskov. As I said earlier, German infantry can hit Pskov hard on turn #4. In fact the 6 AGN Pz divisions usually can cross the Velikaya on turn 3 and open the door,so to speak, for their slower brothers. There are a lot of clear hexes north of Pskov to boot. I think that the 2 extra turns preparing a defensive line on the Luga river (with better terrain to boot) offers the best chance in slowing up the German juggernaut.

That's precisely where the Soviets made a stand in the real war as well.

[Tarhunnas]

Turn 2. Before Soviet moves but after recon.

The enemy seems to concentrate more on surrounding the remaining Soviet units that gaining ground. Remarkably small advance in the north, relatively mild advance in Byelorussia. A nasty pocket in the South. The pockets look very solid, my opponent makes no mistakes at all! This is a little creepy, everyone I played so far has made some little mistakes somewhere. I feel a little like one of those medical heroes who infect themselves with some horrible disease and then make notes as the disease progresses.

[Flaviusx]

If you keep checkerboarding he'll just keep gobbling stuff up like this, Tarhunnas. Checkerboards don't work against players who know how to herd them. I quit doing this a while ago.

Switch over to picketing with a strong MLR well to the east of that. Although that may not be consistent with your self imposed house rules.

[Klydon]

I wonder how long he will continue to leave/make use of broken down motorized/panzer divisions.

[Flaviusx]

ORIGINAL: Klydon

I wonder how long he will continue to leave/make use of broken down motorized/panzer divisions.

As long as he can get away with it. Red Army lacks the forces to counter it at present. Tarhunnas doesn't even have a coherent front anywhere.