Yamamoto resign?

[Footslogger]

Did Yamamoto and all of his staff threaten to resign if Pearl Harbor wasn't attacked? [X(]

[Cribtop]

Yep. He used his prestige by threatening to quit on several occasions to influence decisions of the IGC in Tokyo. Midway being one example, IIRC. Oops.

[Commander Stormwolf]

PH could have ended in 4 ways

Major Jap victory = carriers sunk in harbor
Minjor Jap victory = bb sunk in harbor
Minor Jap defeat = KB is detected and fights a mutually attritional battle
Major Jap defeat = KB is ambushed ahead of time and completely destroyed

...so PH was not really a good idea.. would have been funny if they lost the war on the first day

better to capture the DEI more quickly and fight a defensive battle like Tsushima (with SS and LBA wearing down the USN)

[wdolson]

PH did make the US much more cautious.  If the KB had not attacked PH, the US would have had it's Pacific Fleet intact and would have been itching to do something with it.  If they hadn't tried to rescue the Philippines, which was pretty much a lost cause no matter how strong the US fleet was, the Marshalls might have been at risk.  A lot of face would have been lost if the western portion of the empire had been taken in the first months of the war.

If the US had gone for the Philippines, a large US force sent to the DEI would have caused a lot of trouble there.  US BBs were old and out of date, but most Japanese BBs were the same vintage and the US had more of them. 

Before PH there was an ongoing fight in both the IJN and the USN between the gun club and the airedales.  The gun club dominated the higher ranks and still believed the BB was supreme.  Yammamoto was about the only senior Japanese officer who had a bad feeling when the carriers were not knocked out at PH.  The Japanese felt very confident about their advances because the US BBs were knocked out and the only US capital forces available were the carriers.  It took a while to realize they had done the American airedales a huge favor.

The US might have lost several BBs attacking Japanese assets in the early going, but an intact US fleet that was not set back on a defensive posture by a heavy attack would have at minimum been a major pain. 

The wiser of the Japanese also realized that the US was simply too big to fight a war of attrition against.  They had the lessons of 1906 to fall back on and figured the US would fold like the Russians did if you hit them hard enough.  Only Yamamoto realized that US industrial might was much larger than Russia's and a fight with the US was going to be different.

Bill

[Commander Stormwolf]

226 G3M, 137 G4M, 69 H6K, 2 H8K

... hundreds of LBA torpedo planes with A6M escort would mean
Prince of Wales and Repluse ..on a much larger scale

and it was quite possible that KB would have been battered at PH,
if surprise had not been achieved.. PH was a gamble and it was effective...
Midway was a gamble and it was a failiure. Togo at Tsushima did not gamble,
used the light forces to wear down the large number of Russian battleships..
same could have been done against a Dec 1941 USN rescue of philipines

[Xxzard]

Strangely the inter-war operational plans for both sides (before the attack on PH was thought up) ran along the same lines. US fleet heads to the Philippines, there is some decisive naval clash, war decided by the result. It is perhaps fortunate that PH was attacked in that sense, because if the US had been unwise enough to follow through on that plan the Japanese may well have won a decisive carrier engagement and sunk the majority of the fleet without any hope of salvage. Moreover the stirring mentality of revenge for the sneak attack would be absent. Perhaps then the US government would be more willing to come to the negotiating table.

All just speculation of course. I think there were *probably* enough bright minds in the US military establishment to realize that the War Plan Orange strategy would not work against well organized submarine and aircraft carriers forces. And perhaps, as happened in reality, it might be realized that the Philippines were bound to fall, and the better strategy would be to wait and build up.

[decaro]

ORIGINAL: wdolson

PH did make the US much more cautious.  If the KB had not attacked PH, the US would have had it's Pacific Fleet intact and would have been itching to do something with it ...

War Plan Orange?

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: Xxzard

Strangely the inter-war operational plans for both sides (before the attack on PH was thought up) ran along the same lines. US fleet heads to the Philippines, there is some decisive naval clash, war decided by the result. It is perhaps fortunate that PH was attacked in that sense, because if the US had been unwise enough to follow through on that plan the Japanese may well have won a decisive carrier engagement and sunk the majority of the fleet without any hope of salvage. Moreover the stirring mentality of revenge for the sneak attack would be absent. Perhaps then the US government would be more willing to come to the negotiating table.

All just speculation of course. I think there were *probably* enough bright minds in the US military establishment to realize that the War Plan Orange strategy would not work against well organized submarine and aircraft carriers forces. And perhaps, as happened in reality, it might be realized that the Philippines were bound to fall, and the better strategy would be to wait and build up.

When it as doing my Masters research, I read through ten years of the Navy's Proceedings magazine. There is some mighty interesting discussions there by various officers regarding War Plan Orange, the Treaty Cruisers, and possibilities of the new Aircraft Carrier. It was a dynamic and fluid time...

[dorjun driver]

ORIGINAL: Commander Stormwolf

PH could have ended in 4 ways

Major Jap victory = carriers sunk in harbor
Minjor Jap victory = bb sunk in harbor
Minor Jap defeat = KB is detected and fights a mutually attritional battle
Major Jap defeat = KB is ambushed ahead of time and completely destroyed

...so PH was not really a good idea.. would have been funny if they lost the war on the first day

better to capture the DEI more quickly and fight a defensive battle like Tsushima (with SS and LBA wearing down the USN)

They did.