Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A)

[Cribtop]

July 28, 1942

Subs

To add to our frustration at Noumea, an enemy TF with xAPs present appears nearby but flees today. Strong evidence of a build up in SWPAC, though.

British KVs DC I-156 near Colombo and, over two combats, obtain 2 penetrating hits. One must've been FoW though, as damage isn't very high. The sub will retire.

4th Fleet

Our observers on Funafuti (two tourists with cameras and binoculars) report no Allied flights today.

SE Fleet

This is apparently because the enemy recon group moved West as today Tulagi is reconned. Cribtop Intel warns that the enemy may be preparing for an offensive in these parts.

14th Army, 16th Army, 25th Army, 15th Army

Quiet except that recon overflies Ramree Island and Imperial Guards Division, posted near Akyab.

China

Recognizing that the race is on, CF very cleverly orders his crate air force to bomb the 17th Army stack to slow it up. We will LRCAP tomorrow.

Other

CVL Ryuho arrives early. She won't have organic air groups for a while, but we will put a big Zero group on her for now. We basically have all CVs and CVLs (not counting Shinano, which is halted) on accelerated build.

[Grfin Zeppelin]

Are you playing scen 1 ?

[Cribtop]

July 29, 1942

Yes, GZ, Scenario 1 with PDU On. The lack of extra ground troops makes life very... interesting. Hence the gamble to try to neuter China and get more troops to the Pacific. A gamble because for now there are even less troops available. We estimate that CF will begin an offensive somewhere in August or September 1942. More on that in the next post.

Subs

Tarpon duds on a PB near Truk. A Lily reports a hit on a sub near Rangoon.

4th Fleet

Quiet, but we are loading a re-built SNLF for TB at Tokyo. Preparing for the storm.

SE Fleet

Tulagi reconned again. Fortunately, CF will see 7 LCUs present as we still have 3 engineer units finishing up forts. Maybe that will dissuade him for now. Combined Fleet is put on alert.

14th Army

Troops are about 3 days out in two convoys.

16th Army

Today CF mounts an air offensive assuming our previous dispositions held. Fortunately, we are "shell gaming." He sends 24 B-17s, the largest grouping yet observed, to hit the Katherine airfield, looking for our Nicks. They are not there and surprisingly only 16 runway hits are achieved. Kittyhawks sweep the skies over our flanking tank regiment looking for LRCAP, but we stood down given the lack of bombing in recent days and predicted thunderstorms. The enemy stack remains SW of Daly and interestingly does not show a move arrow into the base despite two days of recon by Dinahs at Daly. Again, more on our interpretation of this in the next post.

25th Army

No change.

15th Army

Recon of Ramree Island and Imperial Guards again.

China

Weather stops our bombers from hitting the former Kukong stack. Not good. No sign of the KMT air force - we were waiting with LRCAP aplenty.

We now have the advance guard of two tank units in the Hengyang stack, with 17th Army one hex out. "Carry over" movement marched them 9 hexes toward Hengyang. The two enemy stacks are both two hexes away but probably soon to move into the hex SW of the city. If our bombers keep flying, it should take just enough days (with maybe one day grace) for us to get into and take Hengyang. It will be a damn near run thing, as one of my English ancestors once commented.

[obvert]

Any screenies of the South/Central Pacific areas to show how far you've reached before digging in?

After a while using the wolf-packs, what is your assessment of their efficacy? Any difference in the number of attacks on transports, not escorts?

[Cribtop]

Analysis

As we have seen, since the 25th of July CF has been undertaking some new actions. To wit:

NW Oz

The enemy armor stack is advancing, with support from lots of 4Es and a group of Aussie fighters. CF has been willing to endure pretty effective air strikes for weeks on these troops and has marched up to the threshhold of Daly Waters. Recon does not show a move arrow into the base yet, but he may yet do so. We have a good array of forces (350 AS, including lots of tanks and ATGs, with another 125 AS approaching) behind level 3+ forts.

Burma

Enemy planes have begun recon flights over Imperial Guards Division near Akyab and Ramree Island. Add to that the raid by enemy Blenheims on the 25th that has not been repeated (was this a "recon by bombing effort?"). Bases in NE India are building.

SWPAC

Recon flights over Funafuti for a week and now a few days over Tulagi. Signs of build up of Luganville and Noumea, with tankers and troop ships spotted near the latter base.

Enemy Intentions

It's always dangerous to guess at enemy intentions. However, the picture above is generally interpreted by Cribtop Intel as follows:

CF has divined that our commitment to China may let him launch an offensive. By August '42 he has the capability to begin some limited offensive Ops. He is considering a multi-pronged attack in SWPAC and Burma so that MKB can't be both places at once. The new interest in Ramree Island indicates that could be the target. In SWPAC he is probably weighing various options somewhere in the Solomons or Milne Bay.

We read the moves in NW Oz as a feint. He has not brought anything more to the party from the last effort at Daly other than planes, which are easily moved.

Thus, we will reinforce Ramree Island, re-position 55th Division (theater reserve) so that it can be flown or railed into any threatened base, and move some LBA from Timor to Batavia, allowing them to react in either direction quickly. In the Pacific, we are building defenses up about as best we can. Combined Fleet (consisting of MKB, Tanaka Force, an ASW TF and the Fleet Oilers) will probably shift to Truk. In addition, we will hasten the end in Luzon (which is quite late, really), freeing up a lot of troops to man the fences. This will get interesting, folks! Given the need to use MKB defensively for the most part and in multiple AOs for the remainder of the war, we will henceforth (that word was for Canoerebel) have a new entry in our AAR reporting on the actions of Combined Fleet. We'll call it, let's see... "Combined Fleet." [:D]

Obvert - I'll post a screenshot of the Solomons and NG later today. The wolf packs are more effective as the enemy sails over multiple subs and gets attacked multiple times. We haven't quite placed them right, yet, but are beginning to zero in. Cribtop Intel continues to interpret the relatively empty seas as a sign that CF is using large, infrequent convoys instead of smaller, more regular ones. This was a big part of the ultimately flawed decision to have the CVEs raid the convoy lanes.

[Grfin Zeppelin]

Ah ok well I was about to start ranting for halting the Shinano. Makes sense in Scen 1 however. Pffft then Ill rant elswhere [;)]

[Cribtop]

Yeah, oddly if I could get her as a BB, I might think about it. In Sc 2, it's a real CV. In Sc 1, it's an expensive mess.

[SqzMyLemon]

Cribtop,

Did you change the focus of Red Dragon? I thought you were going to drive straight on Tuyun and Kweiyang, then swing east to bag the lot in a Changsha/Changteh pocket? Did I misinterpret your plan, or did you tweak it?

I seriously recommend getting over the river in some kind of strength before CF can establish a solid MLR. Crossing that river against large numbers of Chinese defenders later can be a tall order.

[Cribtop]

Sqz,

Indeed I did. The northern pincer failed to convince CF to commit more than a token force in that direction. He has 43 LCUs in Chungking. Even assuming half of these are HQs, base forces and trashed units recovering, he has 20+ LCUs with pop there. I figured a drive on Kweiyang, as important as that hex is, would only invite commitment of the Chungking force and stalemate. Thus, I went for the less vital, but hopefully achievable, target of Changsha. My reasoning is that if I get the Changsha cluster plus the 6 or so bases I've conqured in South China, the objective of the operation - capturing enough industry to put China in a real supply pinch - will be achieved. I'm also under time pressure to get this done and get troops out to the perimeter. Depending on how things go, I may push deeper with China Expeditionary Army troops later. However, remember I've conqured or isolated all of northern and far western China, so even if just the four Changsha bases fall and I end up in a protracted siege of Changsha itself, CF will have all of 12 bases to draw on. Finally, I'll start bombing Chungking daily after Red Dragon to further kill supply.

[Cribtop]

And here's the requested screenie of the SE Fleet AO.



Truk has 20th Division and a small tank unit in reserve. South Seas Fleet (4 BBs, 4 CAs, 6 DDs) and an LCTF are also present.

Rabaul has a Netty Hikotai and Zeros.

Munda (level 4 airfield) has an Air HQ, a Nell Hikotai and Zeros.

Tulagi, Munda, PM and Milne Bay are the front line. Buna, the Lae cluster, and the three Bougainville bases (under construction) are the second line.

Final defense of Rabaul will be Rabaul, Gasmata, Namatanai, Kavieng and Manus.

Combined Fleet can be on station in about 10 days. We're considering re-basing Combined Fleet to Truk.

PS - Supply convoys are en route to deal with the pesky yellow arrows - they just popped up this turn.

[SqzMyLemon]

I think you will be in good shape then. Once Changsha and area fall you'll have the Chinese supply situation on life support. I'd still recommend Kweiyang at some point though, even if stalemate. That should give you Chihkiang and Changteh as well. If your end desire is to draw out LCU's for the Pacific, then taking the Kweiyang, Chihkiang and Changteh bases could shorten your front considerably if CF withdraws towards Chungking. Taking Patung shortens it even further. If I hadn't tried the river assault against a large Chinese force in my game and attacked in a more direct way, I might seriously have the Chinese down for the count.

[ny59giants]

I like Furgesson Island near Milne Bay to build up and then place an Air HQ to cover those bases. Build to size 4 AF to allow bomb loads to max out. Those bases can only be closed by 4e bombers, but having a few of those five bases built up means he cannot close you down. This will keep you free of any warships headed from Australia to Port Moresby.

China - Bomb AFs; Lather, Rinse, Repeat!! [:D][:D]
Logistics...Logistics...Logistics

[Alfred]

Cribtop.

Rescuing you from the ignomy of page 2. Also that I have now read the AAR. I know, no need to profusely thank me, a quiet doffing of the hat will suffice.

The discussion about destruction of supply conducted back on page 37 is wrong. Almost a year ago the calculation was changed.

The old calculation was based on hits causing a fixed destruction quantum based on a unified bomb size. That was the basis of the old classical WITP 1% loss rate. The new loss rate is based on a random number and the particular ordnance dropped. Thus the effect and anti-soft ratings of the actual bomb dropped now, together with the die roll, provide a variable destruction quantum.

As a rough rule of thumb, if you inflict multiple supply hits with large bombs (not with puny 60kg Val bombs) you might consider that the entire day's base bombing inflicted approximately a 1% supply destruction. But each of those individual multiple supply hits definitely does not produce a fixed 1% supply destruction quantum. Unless maybe you are dropping 1000 kg sized bombs (which are probably not in the Empire's arsenal) and you get good die rolls.

Alfred

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

Cribtop.

Rescuing you from the ignomy of page 2. Also that I have now read the AAR. I know, no need to profusely thank me, a quiet doffing of the hat will suffice.

The discussion about destruction of supply conducted back on page 37 is wrong. Almost a year ago the calculation was changed.

The old calculation was based on hits causing a fixed destruction quantum based on a unified bomb size. That was the basis of the old classical WITP 1% loss rate. The new loss rate is based on a random number and the particular ordnance dropped. Thus the effect and anti-soft ratings of the actual bomb dropped now, together with the die roll, provide a variable destruction quantum.

As a rough rule of thumb, if you inflict multiple supply hits with large bombs (not with puny 60kg Val bombs) you might consider that the entire day's base bombing inflicted approximately a 1% supply destruction. But each of those individual multiple supply hits definitely does not produce a fixed 1% supply destruction quantum. Unless maybe you are dropping 1000 kg sized bombs (which are probably not in the Empire's arsenal) and you get good die rolls.

Alfred

So although I'm getting a lot of hits with the IJN bombers, it may not be doing much as they drop 2 250kg bombs and 4 60kg bombs. In fact the Sallys would kill supply better, even though they may not get as many hits?

Just out of curiosity, I wonder what a 250kg bomb would do on average? What would the calculation be and what would be the range of damage in supply points? This of course won't change my bombing strategy, just might help me asses what affect it's having on the enemy.

[Cribtop]

Excellent info, Alfred - many thanks. Consider the hat doffed. [&o]

The new calculation is more realistic, and as you point out it will be harder for the Sons of Nippon to kill supply than those nasty allies with their big bombs and bombers.

[Grfin Zeppelin]

Final nail in the Lily coffin I say.

[obvert]

wrong spot- sorry

[Cribtop]

July 30, 1942

The race for Hengyang continues.

Subs

Near Victoria Point, S-41 misses a supply xAK bound for Rangoon. Lucky for us.

4th Fleet

A Naval Guard unit loads at Tokyo for TB.

SE Fleet

Ndeni is reconned. Looks like CF is casting a broad net, in part perhaps to confuse us, but in part because he just doesn't have any knowledge of our dispositions.

14th Army

Operation Killshot forces will hit the beaches at Lingayan tomorrow. It feels like December '41 all over again. [:D] Speed is the key to this. Enemy AS is down from 1500 to 725 at Clark Field, so it shouldn't take long.

16th Army

Obi invaded. No enemy air flies in NW Oz. Further, there is still no move arrow visible on the enemy armor. Is this a bluff?

Cribtop HQ orders a small counter-op. We note that the second brigade of 21st Division has almost joined its fellows at Daly (the final brigade is at Darwin in reserve). We could probably spare 2 tank regiments from the front lines to move down the yellow road east out of sight, then double back overland to Tennant Creek, which appears to be very lightly held. That ought to shake the enemy up a bit.

25th Army

Bangkok makes level 6 airfield and will go on to 7.

15th Army

2nd Raiding regiment is flown into Ramree Island to bolster its defenses. The regiment freed up from the Central PI will also move here. 55th Division and 1st Raiding Regiment are in theater reserve in Rangoon, ready to be railed or flown into any threatened point.

China

Our bombers fly against both enemy stacks, which is good. Many of the enemy units move into the hex just SW of Hengyang today, but that was expected as our air had already delayed them several days on a good road. 17th Army will march into the Hengyang hex with movement to spare tomorrow. We must force the enemy to take 3 days to get into the hex, rather than 2. Tomorrow a big Oscar group will LRCAP 17th Army while every bomber in China (no exaggeration) hits the hex SW of Hengyang. We also decide to order the two tank regiments already in the hex to DA tomorrow. We don't expect them to take the hex, but given the relative imperviousness of armor to Chinese units, we figure the attack will probably drop forts and rough up the enemy.

Paratroops take an empty Nanning. It will interesting to see whether materials begin to flow over the now open road net to Manchuria and Korea.

The enemy stack near Wuchow, no doubt realizing the danger of encirclement, has begun to withdraw down the road to (IJA occupied) Kuknong. Our blocking force will divide up, with the brigade moving to garrison Kweilin while the division follows the retreating enemy with the intention of eventually joining the main battle near Changsha. The next 48 hours will tell the tale of this phase. Possible results include capture of Hengyang with all enemy forces across the river, the enemy beating us into Hengyang, making the battle for that city protracted, or a weird simultaneous event with an IJA DA on the same turn as a Chinese SA as they cross the river. Not sure how this will play out, but we believe we have a 65% chance of taking Hengyang first. Basically our bombers need to cause one day's delay and we should take it.

Kiukiang makes level 6 forts.

[Cribtop]

ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin

Final nail in the Lily coffin I say.

+1

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin

Final nail in the Lily coffin I say.

+1

Yeah and I feel for those who are playing PDU off and have to use the Sonia even more now. I did think that with 4 tiny little bombs at least they could get a lot of hits. This kills that idea.