The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

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GreyJoy
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by GreyJoy »

1st April 1944 situation

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obvert
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by obvert »

What is really going to be fun for you, when this is over, (and yes, we can begin to at least speak of it ending, though I know there is more fun to be had here[:)]), is when you begin a NEW GC.

My feeling, now that you're a master of offensive strategy and tactics, is that you should try out the dark side! Though I can't wait to play Allies one day, you should consider the learning curve you'll have when you also understand the situation of the Japanese side of the game. It really is a different challenge and quite fun to manage the economy as well. And to have to dictate the first 1 to 2 years of the war is difficult and exciting.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
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GreyJoy
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by GreyJoy »

No Obvert, thanks, but i'm far from being a master of anything. I learnt a lot, true, but a single positive operation in the bag doesn't make you a master...maybe a decent player, and that's all for the moment.
 
On the contraty i'm proud of being the author of the 3rd most viewed AAR in the history of this forum [8D]
Powloon
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by Powloon »

If he is preparing to stand forward in the wood hex indicated would it be worth prepping some of the reinforcement divisions for Okkaido? If you did an amphib landing here you could potentially isolate a lot of Japanese divisions. Again I'm pretty new to the game so I'm not sure if some monster CD unit lurks there.
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by pws1225 »

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

No Obvert, thanks, but i'm far from being a master of anything. I learnt a lot, true, but a single positive operation in the bag doesn't make you a master...maybe a decent player, and that's all for the moment.

On the contraty i'm proud of being the author of the 3rd most viewed AAR in the history of this forum [8D]

As you should be.
beppi
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by beppi »

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

1st April 1944 situation

<snip the picture>

Ok some assumptions from me. The yellow dots are good targets as you already know. Might be little bit hard to take cause they need preparation but if the bases are taken you completed your harbor north of Hokkaido which makes everything easier including a safe line of approach to bring in reinforcements and supply/fuel.

Regarding to the situation on Hokkaido:

What does the blocking position of Reder tell me?

1.) He does not want to give up Hokkaido, so he expects to do something there. There is not majort advantage of controlling the southern part of Hokkaido with one exception as you already control multiple potential lvl 9 bases there which are more than sufficient to do strat bombing in Japan. The exception is that Reder might plan to dump a huge number of divisions which he is currently bringing from all the controlled Japanese area back to the homeland.

2.) As Nemo already pointed out, as long as he can keep the line between Omitano and Hokkodate open he can transport large number of divisions to Hokkaido with barges. With the number of Nemo (1 division each turn) this is quite fast. Major blocking situation right now is that i do not think that he currently has enough troops in Japan to shift them. So he needs to bring them back first and then barge transport them to Hokkaido. I would expect him to do so but you have still a few weeks time.

3.) The blocking point itself tells something about Reader too. He fears the power of your air force. If you remember his threads and his problems with 4E (especially B-29) nuking his troops in the open the current hex with the main troops from him is the best first choke point 1 hex wide. In addition it is a forrest hex, so no open 4E/2E ground bonus and air attacks are a little bit weaker than in open terrain.
If he would have created a 2Hex defense position (Sapporo and the Base sw of it) at least Sapporo would be a open hex but he would gain a bonus of being able to build forts quite high (question is if he has the time). Usually such a defense position is not bad even if it is 2 Hex wide. He would have a road between the base and you would have to move through open terrain. With the ability to quickly shift troops along the road it is usually quite easy to even defend 2 bases as whenever the attack tries to shift troops to cap one of the bases the defender can move his troops to counter that much quicker.

Push on until you reach his choke point. Use a army large enough to not get kicked out of the hex when you approach and isolate all other approaches to the hex. You can use some small units to approach the choke point hex from the SE and the NE (if NE is moveable) and just change the hexside control to allied. If all 3 exits (NE,SE and E) are allied you can contain him there with a number of troops which is large enough to not getting kicked out (it might be necessary to continually reinforce your troops there as Reader might bring more and more troops) . Then you can either push him out and back to Hokkodate or at least use your air assets (2E do a good job for that, 4E are deadly too if you do not use them in stratbombing) to grind his stacks down with air attacks. That means more or less to move your perimeter into the hex he currently controls. It think it would be easier to defend there.

The ground situation is quite good right now, only threat i see is a massive reinforcement to Hokkaido with 15+ divisions. If you can stop that you have a nice and safe position there from a ground war point of view.
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GreyJoy
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by GreyJoy »

ORIGINAL: beppi
ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

1st April 1944 situation

<snip the picture>

Ok some assumptions from me. The yellow dots are good targets as you already know. Might be little bit hard to take cause they need preparation but if the bases are taken you completed your harbor north of Hokkaido which makes everything easier including a safe line of approach to bring in reinforcements and supply/fuel.

Regarding to the situation on Hokkaido:

What does the blocking position of Reder tell me?

1.) He does not want to give up Hokkaido, so he expects to do something there. There is not majort advantage of controlling the southern part of Hokkaido with one exception as you already control multiple potential lvl 9 bases there which are more than sufficient to do strat bombing in Japan. The exception is that Reder might plan to dump a huge number of divisions which he is currently bringing from all the controlled Japanese area back to the homeland.

2.) As Nemo already pointed out, as long as he can keep the line between Omitano and Hokkodate open he can transport large number of divisions to Hokkaido with barges. With the number of Nemo (1 division each turn) this is quite fast. Major blocking situation right now is that i do not think that he currently has enough troops in Japan to shift them. So he needs to bring them back first and then barge transport them to Hokkaido. I would expect him to do so but you have still a few weeks time.

3.) The blocking point itself tells something about Reader too. He fears the power of your air force. If you remember his threads and his problems with 4E (especially B-29) nuking his troops in the open the current hex with the main troops from him is the best first choke point 1 hex wide. In addition it is a forrest hex, so no open 4E/2E ground bonus and air attacks are a little bit weaker than in open terrain.
If he would have created a 2Hex defense position (Sapporo and the Base sw of it) at least Sapporo would be a open hex but he would gain a bonus of being able to build forts quite high (question is if he has the time). Usually such a defense position is not bad even if it is 2 Hex wide. He would have a road between the base and you would have to move through open terrain. With the ability to quickly shift troops along the road it is usually quite easy to even defend 2 bases as whenever the attack tries to shift troops to cap one of the bases the defender can move his troops to counter that much quicker.

Push on until you reach his choke point. Use a army large enough to not get kicked out of the hex when you approach and isolate all other approaches to the hex. You can use some small units to approach the choke point hex from the SE and the NE (if NE is moveable) and just change the hexside control to allied. If all 3 exits (NE,SE and E) are allied you can contain him there with a number of troops which is large enough to not getting kicked out (it might be necessary to continually reinforce your troops there as Reader might bring more and more troops) . Then you can either push him out and back to Hokkodate or at least use your air assets (2E do a good job for that, 4E are deadly too if you do not use them in stratbombing) to grind his stacks down with air attacks. That means more or less to move your perimeter into the hex he currently controls. It think it would be easier to defend there.

The ground situation is quite good right now, only threat i see is a massive reinforcement to Hokkaido with 15+ divisions. If you can stop that you have a nice and safe position there from a ground war point of view.

Beppi, i fully agree with you.
In every single word.
The only point that i see is that in 1944 i do not fear 15 japanese divisions. If i manage, as i wish to do, to get in his choke point with a decent Army (let's say 2000 AVs composed of 1944 upgraded US divisions and Indian 1944 upgraded division) i think i can hold, counting also on my bombers and on forts, a much much stronger army in terms of AVs. Let's say he can bring 10,000 AVs. i think my 2,000 AVs can hold them, thank to their greater relative firepower.
So i don't really see it as a threat.
Same goes for the landings. I have placed CD guns in every single base i conquered. A full reinforced division (say US Div + 1 INF rgt), with 1 Arty unit, 1 CD unit, 2 AA unit and 1 Tank Bn, in range of Army HQs, fully supplied and behind 6 forts can, imho, at this stage (also consider the terrain bonus) hold pretty much everything japan is able to land.
I have PTs, DDs and several huge SCTFs in my controlled waters. Bombers and fighters in numbers.... I really don't see how he can master anything like that.

However i have to admit that i never read Nemo's Downfall AAR...so i better take a deep look at it and see how was he able to push back into the ocean the allies....
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JohnDillworth
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by JohnDillworth »

I never strat bombed in my whole gaming life, so it will take some attempts before i can master the whole situation.
Respectfully, I believe that you will never master it with the house rule of SB above 20,000 feet. House rules are house rules but this one seems terribly one sided. IRL, The allies achieved quite limited success in the strategic bombing of Japan at high altitudes. When they got low, real low, and switched to night bombing with incendiaries, well, game over. This house rule prevents you from using the Allies single most powerful weapon (yes, including those 2), the firestorm. As this is a house rule, and you are a gentleman, of course it will be observed. However, do any of the other players in the room think that "no strategic bombing below 20,000 feet" is a fair rule to inflict on a new allied player?
thanks
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by Canoerebel »

Replying to various comments made:
&nbsp;
1)&nbsp; Yes, IJ divisions (posted at critical intervals) could have stopped GJ.&nbsp; By "could have stopped," I mean it might have stopped him from trying this.&nbsp; His plan depended on getting ashore and&nbsp;quickly&nbsp;taking major airfields so that LBA could share the duty with carriers.&nbsp; GJ&nbsp;might have felt entirely different about this if he hadn't been assured of a quick umbrella of LBA.&nbsp; Rader should have strongly fortified any NoPac base&nbsp;that had&nbsp;a big airfield.&nbsp; Any base that he couldn't garrison shouldn't have been built up.&nbsp; Under that scenario - a division behind four to six forts - GJ might not invade; but if he had invaded things would have slowed down considerably, so that rader would have had much more time to organize an effective counterstrike.&nbsp; Speed was everything here, but rader didn't have any speed bumps.
&nbsp;
2)&nbsp;Rader was&nbsp;negligent in leaving NoPac open while he had umpteen divisions committed in New Guinea and other much less important places.&nbsp;&nbsp; No doubt he had fallen into the trap of&nbsp;underestimating GJ.&nbsp; After all, GJ was a newb, had nearly lost the western half of the map, and was mired down in a slugging match way off in the Solomons.&nbsp; So rader got overconfident.&nbsp; He might have lost interest in the match, as is often the case once a player loses the strategic initiative and is fighting a static or retiring defense.&nbsp; So he probably wasn't as alert as he would have been against a more experienced opponent.&nbsp; (Hey, didn't Japan make the same mistake in the real war?)
&nbsp;
3)&nbsp;Rader recognized belatedly that he had his India army way out on a limb at a point when the Allies had the ability to mount a very big amphibious assault somewhere important.&nbsp; I'm sure he was thinking "DEI."&nbsp; So he finally began to pull back his army, but&nbsp;he waited way too late.&nbsp; Holding India in 1944 was an extravagance he&nbsp;couldn't afford.
&nbsp;
4)&nbsp; I don't know about&nbsp;the fairness or unfairness of the 20k&nbsp;strat bombing House Rule (I don't have the experience to weigh in on that), but&nbsp;I have seen some things that I thought were over the top in a game against a newb.&nbsp;&nbsp;One example - marching a huge army across the Owen Stanley mountains (how many divisions?&nbsp; five?) to take Port Moresby.
&nbsp;
5)&nbsp; Has Suddenly Hairy developed perfectly, or what?&nbsp; Man, GJ did something here.
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by paullus99 »

Rader was obviously reacting to what he faced in a previous game - where he, himself, led the "a-historical" way by invading the Soviet Union. He can bitch and moan all he wants about Allied aircraft based in Russia, but he started down that road, so tough.

Here, he has been out-played (and I believe he got incredibly cocky as well) - he's already lost, because GJ is going to be able to inflict massive harm just from his current position, especially given the massive amount of material he is poised to receive through the rest of 1944 & all of 1945.

And sure, Rader will be able to transfer large amounts of troops, but will he be able to supply them in the face of GJ's air & sea capabilities? There will be about a month's worth of intense action where Rader will be able to throw everything, including the kitchen sink, into the mix, but after that, his cubboards will be bare - plus he will be abandoning just about everything else on the map (at least in the sea & air) - so GJ should be able to mount multiple offensive operations in the Solomons, DEI & even Southeast Asia, as long as he maintains & expands his current postions in the home islands.

GJ has momentum right now & given the rushed nature of the transport of ground troops Rader is having to throw into the mix (and that most of his core troops were in the DEI or retreating from India - now is a great time to flood the South China Sea & areas around southern Japan with subs as well - since those troops aren't all going to arrive by air), the intact and fresh allied troops that GJ has on line right now should just roll over them for a while - don't let him get prepared - keep hitting him while he's stumbling!
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Crackaces
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by Crackaces »

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
I never strat bombed in my whole gaming life, so it will take some attempts before i can master the whole situation.
Respectfully, I believe that you will never master it with the house rule of SB above 20,000 feet. House rules are house rules but this one seems terribly one sided. IRL, The allies achieved quite limited success in the strategic bombing of Japan at high altitudes. When they got low, real low, and switched to night bombing with incendiaries, well, game over. This house rule prevents you from using the Allies single most powerful weapon (yes, including those 2), the firestorm. As this is a house rule, and you are a gentleman, of course it will be observed. However, do any of the other players in the room think that "no strategic bombing below 20,000 feet" is a fair rule to inflict a new allied player?
thanks

I commented in CanoeRebel's thread .. in a way it makes the storyline even better [;)]

I sense GreyJoy is just a gentleman that just wanted to play a game, and Rader is that type A ultra-competitive play to win guy .. the kind of person who would play chess with a 5 year old to win ...so he gets GreyJoy to agree to a rule without "informed consent". iI might compare it to my RF role if I told you "you need your heart taken out" .."ok I trust you know what you are doing .." Itis beyond fairness and crossing over into the 'right" category .. thus your comments ..

But JohnDillworth in all your frustration and wanting to see this game played out as it should ... I sense GreyJoy is going to kick Rader's butt using Rader's rules... Strat Bombing borked by a HR and all .. and it is going to be all the more satisfying for all the AFB's.... [;)]
"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"
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JohnDillworth
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by JohnDillworth »

But JohnDillworth in all your frustration and wanting to see this game played out as it should ... I sense GreyJoy is going to kick Rader's butt using Rader's rules... Strat Bombing borked by a HR and all .. and it is going to be all the more satisfying for all the AFB's....
I expect you are correct. IRL, the Allies were limited to B-29's at extreme range. Hopefully, the shorter range will cut the operational losses and the altitude will cut the op losses caused by AA(damaged aircraft that make it home but are operational wrecks)More importantly, the B-24's, B-25's and assorted British 2&4EB's can now join in the fun. They do not have the high operational rating that the B-29 does and are available in large numbers. The B-25 is not always as useful in WIPAE as in real life but now there numbers will be put to good use.
Note to GJ, you won't have this problem for a bit, and it's a good problem to have. When you have hundreds of B-29's flying missions you will be amazed at how fast they use up supply. You will eventually be flying thousands of sorties each week. Thats a lot of bombs
Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly
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Graymane
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by Graymane »

Keep up the great work GJ!
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obvert
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by obvert »

What is really going to be fun for you, when this is over, (and yes, we can begin to at least speak of it ending, though I know there is more fun to be had here), is when you begin a NEW GC.

My feeling, now that you're a master of offensive strategy and tactics, is that you should try out the dark side! Though I can't wait to play Allies one day, you should consider the learning curve you'll have when you also understand the situation of the Japanese side of the game. It really is a different challenge and quite fun to manage the economy as well. And to have to dictate the first 1 to 2 years of the war is difficult and exciting.

-obvert
No Obvert, thanks, but i'm far from being a master of anything. I learnt a lot, true, but a single positive operation in the bag doesn't make you a master...maybe a decent player, and that's all for the moment.

On the contraty i'm proud of being the author of the 3rd most viewed AAR in the history of this forum

You should be proud of this AAR. You've given a lot of energy and personality to it, as well as creating an entirely new vocabulary. [:)]

My main point was not that you have become a master of the game, but that you've transitioned to a confident and capable player who can assess on both the local tactical and the strategic level, and that this would be tested and developed by taking on a campaign on the Japanese side next time, in 2-5 months or however long it takes to wrap this one up. I've just been amazed at how much more quickly I learn playing IJ as you have to dictate the game in the beginning as well as project those plans into the future. It's a big and worthy challenge, and you seem fond of a challenge!



"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
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paullus99
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by paullus99 »

My bet is Rader will continue until he has lost the IJN (or the ability to project meaningful surface or carrier assets into contested waters).
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beppi
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by beppi »

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
But JohnDillworth in all your frustration and wanting to see this game played out as it should ... I sense GreyJoy is going to kick Rader's butt using Rader's rules... Strat Bombing borked by a HR and all .. and it is going to be all the more satisfying for all the AFB's....
I expect you are correct. IRL, the Allies were limited to B-29's at extreme range. Hopefully, the shorter range will cut the operational losses and the altitude will cut the op losses caused by AA(damaged aircraft that make it home but are operational wrecks)More importantly, the B-24's, B-25's and assorted British 2&4EB's can now join in the fun. They do not have the high operational rating that the B-29 does and are available in large numbers. The B-25 is not always as useful in WIPAE as in real life but now there numbers will be put to good use.
Note to GJ, you won't have this problem for a bit, and it's a good problem to have. When you have hundreds of B-29's flying missions you will be amazed at how fast they use up supply. You will eventually be flying thousands of sorties each week. Thats a lot of bombs

The 20.000 feet rule might limit the effect of strat bombing but it does not make it impossible. It might take a few more weeks to critically damage the main assets of Raeder. But just imagine the power of the 4E and the 2E too. If you put everything together with around 70 B24-J, the 20 or so Navy B-24/B-17), the 10 or so Australian B-24 the 10 or so British B-24, the first 28 or so B-29 which will soon be available. Add the 100 or so 2E of different types (British, US Army, US Navy, Australian ones, New Zeeland ones) you get and you have a serious punching power. This will be more than enough to do a successful strat bombing campaign which even can sustain serious losses. This numbers will be extended with almost a 100 B-29 a little bit later and finally the massive 4E and 2E capacity which you get in mid of 1945.

There are rules which might restrict the strat bombing program but it is still possible, and you do not need to completely destroy the japanese in a few weeks. It is 5/44 and Greyjoy is more than a year ahead of the shedule. And if it takes 6 months to level japan with strategic attacks we have more weeks to enjoy that great AAR.

Something other:
I could even imagine an operation ultra nasty with an invasion of Mandschukuo with allied assets if Hokkaido is secure. Just to stretch the lines of Reader more while he tries to prevent to get under the 8000 AV rule. And if you just kick some units there and get below 8000 AV and activate the Soviets .... holy moly .. who needs to win the war with stratbombing ?
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by Schlemiel »

Also just a quick reminder (that I'm sure you're aware) but a good bit of the last gen development starts the game in Toyohara. That will be the hardest for him to defend so I"m make flattening it an early priority. It almost certainly won't stop him, but you're taking out final gen aircraft and engine factories in all likelihood (he may have more elsewhere, but I'd be surprised if he'd repurposed the ones at Toyohara).

In regards to CR, without access to Rader's save file I have no idea if he abandoned India too late or too early. With his divisions out of China, I would suspect he could have much more strongly reinforced his northern perimeter while still holding India, but I do remember at the time that people were suggesting Grey start pulling units OUT of India for use elsewhere instead of just threatening Rader at the Multan bottleneck. I thought at the time that Rader might be trying to avoid that situation if he no longer thought Grey would keep all those forces in the convenient stalemate. That said, he probably could have achieved his stalemate with less, though as people have commented they were probably all restricted or permanently restricted units (which incidentally might be part of why they took trails to Burma instead of ships). I'm probably of the perspective that, despite garrisoning a lot of important inner islands, Rader kept too many units at the perimeter in an attempt to prevent Grey from getting a solid foothold as long as possible (to be on better footing than his jzanes game). He had a plan and he executed his offense extremely well, but I think he was being a bit too experimental on defense and is paying the price now for ignoring some fundamentals.

I don't think anyone here is even remotely implying that Rader is a bad player. He's a master of economic production, knows the mechanics well (and so picked favorable home rules), had a bold, broad plan he implemented successfully, and knew the importance of keeping airbases away from the HI (as per his invasion of Russia in the other game and his reasoning behind it). These are all signs of a good player. But being good does not mean being great. He had all the tools to make Grey's success here not achievable, and he failed to use them. And, by committing everything to the extremes of the Empire without, apparently, good ready reserves near the theater or adequate recon to compensate, he couldn't stop a bad situation (the conquest of the western kuriles) into a lethal one (massive beachheads in Hokkaido and elsewhere). From my ill-informed view, this was from a small strain of mental inflexibility in his hammer approach to offense/defense. If he'd transitioned out of the hammer defense earlier, he'd have had more of everything available for the rest of the perimeter (especially interior reserves). This is not the sign of a bad player at all. He knew to win the grinding war he had to delay GJ as long as possible as far away as possible, but it's the little things that separate a good player from a great player. That said, I'm only an ai player, so I don't even claim to be good. But I know enough to know how little I know (and thereby avoid Dunning-Kruger, I hope).

Rader will no doubt learn a lot from this game, as he has been learning from his game with jzanes. He probably has about as much experience with the GC late game in AE as any JFB, since he runs his games to the end. He is definitely a dangerous opponent in many ways, but he's running up against his belief that the game might be unwinnable (due to the allied air power and Russia) and hasn't found his answer yet, despite trying lots of big, splashy strategies to achieve it. But trying to fight the ghosts of previous late games in addition to your current opponent is a tough row to how.

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JohnDillworth
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by JohnDillworth »

Something other:
I could even imagine an operation ultra nasty with an invasion of Mandschukuo with allied assets if Hokkaido is secure just to stretch the lines of Reader more while he tries to prevent to get under the 8000 AV rule. And if you just kick some units there and get below 8000 AV and actiave the Soviets .... holy moly .. who needs to win the war with stratbombing ?
Kick the Japanese out to get under the 8,000 AV? That is nasty! Never considered that you could kill or force his units out! Then again never consider this line of approach. Have to think this is a better plan than invading the HI. Wow
Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly
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paullus99
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by paullus99 »

Wow, now that's an idea - especially since he's probably flirting with that limit, having pulled just about everything else out to be everywhere at once on the map.....
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by jeffk3510 »

Game over with or without the Soviets with the current situation if played correctly from here on out...However, if they do activate, wowzers.[X(]
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