The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

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obvert
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: beppi

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Yes, i'll have to do that! The only problem is that my air force still needs to be organized...some air transport didn' unload as they should have and those squadrons unloaded are being rapaired so i cannot move them yet...i need a couple more turns in order to have a decent and organized CAP above my bases...for the moment i'll keep my CVs out of the risky area and will devote my effort in reorganize my conquests...

Kunashiri could be built up to lvl 8 AF...which isn't bad at all...and shikotan up to lvl 7...

It also seems that he's moving out of Sapporo...strange indeed... Our tanks are already on march,along with the 93rd Inf division...
Hakodate

Reder can more or less give up the entire hokkaido as long as he is able to control Hakodate and can prevent you from interrupting the barge/tf transport between Ominato and Hakodate. Right now he might be bringing in everything whats left on the main island and unrestricted.

For the near future (next 2-3 months) it is hard to predict how he will react. But one of the possibilities is that he will start to move most of his existing ground forces back to Japan. I do not know how much this could be, as i am not a Japanese late war expert but i asume that the number of divisions can be > 50. If now he is able to move them to Hakodate with barges/TFs then you could face a serious problem. That is the only real long term threat i see right now. Kamis are deadly too, but only against your reinforcement convoys.


So, with this in mind, one of your main targets could be the Hakodate port. It doesn't matter how many barges and Divs he has if he can't unload them onto Hokkaido. Also the the two closest Honshu ports, Ominato and Hirosaki/Aomori, plus the port just behind Hakodate, Muroran, should be targets. Even before hitting industry, take these out and keep them out.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
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JohnDillworth
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by JohnDillworth »

as long as he
Does stis able to control Hakodate and can prevent you from interrupting the barge/tf transport between Ominato and Hakodate
Can port bombing simply close these ports? Seems to my simple mind high level bombing would be enough to keep these ports closed, minamize operation losses and still engage in the aerial war of attrition.
Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly
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witpqs
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by witpqs »

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Yes, i'll have to do that! The only problem is that my air force still needs to be organized...some air transport didn' unload as they should have and those squadrons unloaded are being rapaired so i cannot move them yet...i need a couple more turns in order to have a decent and organized CAP above my bases...for the moment i'll keep my CVs out of the risky area and will devote my effort in reorganize my conquests...

Kunashiri could be built up to lvl 8 AF...which isn't bad at all...and shikotan up to lvl 7...

It also seems that he's moving out of Sapporo...strange indeed... Our tanks are already on march,along with the 93rd Inf division...

You probably ran into the daily port limit with all the massive unloading going on. And since air transport TFs can't be amphibious they just have to wait for time at the docks (not that the TF has to dock, it doesn't).
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by JocMeister »

This AAR is a fantastic read! [:)]
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by Canoerebel »

I've already expressed at length my feelings about GJ's performance here - stunning and magnificent.
 
Surely, there are a few folks out there that think all the glowing congratulations are premature, that rader is going to thrash GJ?  I can just imagine a few folks popping up after rader sinks the entire Allied fleet, downs all aircraft, and boots out the whole Allied army, to say:  "Well, I knew this was going to happen.  All you people congratulating GJ were very premature.  I knew all along this was an exercise in futility."
 
If any naysayers out there feel that way, I would love to hear them speak up now.  Come on, put your cards on the table where we can see them!
 
Nah! There can't be any such sentiment out there.  No matter what happens at this point, GJ has achieved victory by achieving total strategic suprirse that let him accomplish what had to be accomplished for him to ultimately prevail.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by Crackaces »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've already expressed at length my feelings about GJ's performance here - stunning and magnificent.

Surely, there are a few folks out there that think all the glowing congratulations are premature, that rader is going to thrash GJ?  I can just imagine a few folks popping up after rader sinks the entire Allied fleet, downs all aircraft, and boots out the whole Allied army, to say:  "Well, I knew this was going to happen.  All you people congratulating GJ were very premature.  I knew all along this was an exercise in futility."

If any naysayers out there feel that way, I would love to hear them speak up now.  Come on, put your cards on the table where we can see them!

Nah! There can't be any such sentiment out there.  No matter what happens at this point, GJ has achieved victory by achieving total strategic suprirse that let him accomplish what had to be accomplished for him to ultimately prevail.

I will put my cards out. I am a newbie to this game but have taken sometime to learn the mechanics. When I saw the "Hurricane hit Hokkaido" with zero resistance -- this party was over. A little glance at all the very high level airbases and the ability to strike at will with almost the whole USAAF.. well if the Allies can't win doing that .. then the game is not winnable [;)] Forget some small atoll in the Pacifc at extended B-29 range limiting strikes ..Multiple bases in range of the heart of Japan to launch thousands of aircraft.. it cannot get any better than that ..

I, like crusutton and many others in this thread including yourself Canoerebel , immediately recognized that once aboard there was no way the IJ was going to kick them off the island, and at the very least this will be the IJ's focus leaving whatever open to attack .. or just do Strat-bombing at ones heart's content.

Now the neysayers might popup every once in awhile after a bloody turn .. I say this .. I am going to give you a free ride to land unopposed as many troops you can muster for one turn on Hokkido in early 1944 .. would you take that? All the AFB's would most certainly take that choice -- bad & bloody turns and all afterwards ..[;)]

If B-29's stationed in Russia led to crying foul and despair in "Taming the Bear" then the "Hokkaido Hurricane" is going to require some Adapin .. [:D]
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JohnDillworth
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by JohnDillworth »

If any naysayers out there feel that way, I would love to hear them speak up now. Come on, put your cards on the table where we can see them!
Nah....I'm with you. There is probably a big naval battle brewing. Unless the KB can completely cut the supply lines this simmers down. As I said earlier, after the upcoming "Sturm und Drang" this becomes a game of Strategic Air Command. Sure am looking forward to the Naval battle though
Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly
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USSAmerica
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by USSAmerica »

Yep.  Heap big naval battles coming.  
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GreyJoy
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by GreyJoy »

Luckly i have brought enough of everything with me to give breath about supplies and fuel.
I don't need any supply convoy right now. I will...for sure.... but by the time i will need it, my positions in the Kuriles will be much more safer than now...
 
So if he wants a Naval battle...a CV-CV Clash...well, he will have to come and look for me inside my defensive perimeter (Shukuka-Bihoro-Shikotan-Kunashiri-Etorofu-Uruppu and Shimushiri)... i won't go looking for troubles...not now.
 
Don't know guys...Rader seems too calm to be really considering this a "winning move"...It always seems that he has perfect controll of everything...So i'm not that overconfident.
 
...now if only i had more time to play today....ARGH! Damned work[:@]
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paullus99
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by paullus99 »

Rader is faced with committing the bulk of his naval power - without the ability to replace his losses, which will ultimately result in the near extinction of the IJN - even if he does inflict equal losses to the allies.
Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by Canoerebel »

Yup, rader had established a strong MLR.  He was in the comfortable position of knowing that GJ had to come to him.  Thus, rader could choose where and when to commit his naval assets.  That's all changed.  He's  lost control and now has to come to GJ.  A massive naval and air battle will be fought.  It will be fun to watch.  And GJ is in the driver's seat.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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GreyJoy
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by GreyJoy »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yup, rader had established a strong MLR.  He was in the comfortable position of knowing that GJ had to come to him.  Thus, rader could choose where and when to commit his naval assets.  That's all changed.  He's  lost control and now has to come to GJ.  A massive naval and air battle will be fought.  It will be fun to watch.  And GJ is in the driver's seat.

And that is supposed to be something good for me?! [:D]
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by paullus99 »

Dad's given you the keys, just don't crash the car......
Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...
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GreyJoy
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by GreyJoy »

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Dad's given you the keys, just don't crash the car......

I'll do my best...also because i have already trashed Daddy's Porche Panamera twice (China and India) and i don't think his heart could stand another incident to his beloved teutonic supercar[:-]
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by Canoerebel »

Hey, didn't I just post something in that "Happy Thanksgiving, Gents" thread last week about GJ "wearing a colorful Tyrolian tunic and plaid leiderhosen, driving the wrong way down a one way street..."? 
 
I must be omniscient!
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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Bullwinkle58
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by Bullwinkle58 »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

If any naysayers out there feel that way, I would love to hear them speak up now.  Come on, put your cards on the table where we can see them!

Nah! There can't be any such sentiment out there.  No matter what happens at this point, GJ has achieved victory by achieving total strategic suprirse that let him accomplish what had to be accomplished for him to ultimately prevail.

Naysayer? No, but GJ has some difficult days ahead. He has long SLOCs to supply a lot of bases, and good raiding bases along the flank in Truk, the Marianas, and the Iwo Jima group.

That said, I also think there's about a 40/60 chance rader asks for a divorce in the next two game months.

An interesting issue is that these two players are not playing for VPs, so what is "victory"? If they were playing for VPs I'd recco going for vehicle and armament points in order to hamstring land ops everywhere and make Japanese reenforcements flaccid. That would open the best chance for VP accumulation in many sub-theaters over two years, rather than just an air-war exchange struggle over the HI. But if there's no VPs on the table, then what? Does rader have to lose Tokyo? Even then, if auto-vic is not an option, are we back to the "do better than history" model? If we are, GJ just won.

I'm confused.

I think that if rader chooses to play on I'd like to see an AARed game with a Honshu invasion. I'm not sure it can be done if there are ahistorical levels of kamis. I'm back to wondering what were the status of rader's pools when he decided he didn't need India any longer.
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by USSAmerica »

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Dad's given you the keys, just don't crash the car......

I'll do my best...also because i have already trashed Daddy's Porche Panamera twice (China and India) and i don't think his heart could stand another incident to his beloved teutonic supercar[:-]

Oh, no! Don't hurt the Panamera! [X(]

My wife really wants one. [:D]
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Crackaces
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by Crackaces »

ORIGINAL: USS America


....
Oh, no! Don't hurt the Panamera! [X(]

My wife really wants one. [:D]

In your best Monty Python French accent you are supposed to say "Ahhh... we already have a blue one .." [:D]
"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"
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GreyJoy
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by GreyJoy »

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

If any naysayers out there feel that way, I would love to hear them speak up now.  Come on, put your cards on the table where we can see them!

Nah! There can't be any such sentiment out there.  No matter what happens at this point, GJ has achieved victory by achieving total strategic suprirse that let him accomplish what had to be accomplished for him to ultimately prevail.

Naysayer? No, but GJ has some difficult days ahead. He has long SLOCs to supply a lot of bases, and good raiding bases along the flank in Truk, the Marianas, and the Iwo Jima group.

That said, I also think there's about a 40/60 chance rader asks for a divorce in the next two game months.

An interesting issue is that these two players are not playing for VPs, so what is "victory"? If they were playing for VPs I'd recco going for vehicle and armament points in order to hamstring land ops everywhere and make Japanese reenforcements flaccid. That would open the best chance for VP accumulation in many sub-theaters over two years, rather than just an air-war exchange struggle over the HI. But if there's no VPs on the table, then what? Does rader have to lose Tokyo? Even then, if auto-vic is not an option, are we back to the "do better than history" model? If we are, GJ just won.

I'm confused.

I think that if rader chooses to play on I'd like to see an AARed game with a Honshu invasion. I'm not sure it can be done if there are ahistorical levels of kamis. I'm back to wondering what were the status of rader's pools when he decided he didn't need India any longer.

I think the game should end when it becomes clear that Japan has lost the war and has no chance of fighting back...or, in other words, when the game becomes not interesting anymore for both the players
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RE: SUDDENLY HAIRY

Post by Bullwinkle58 »

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

I think the game should end when it becomes clear that Japan has lost the war and has no chance of fighting back...or, in other words, when the game becomes not interesting anymore for both the players

I don't think these two ideas are equivalent. In many respects the first is true now. You have thousands of Allied soldiers standing on HI territory in 1944, which never happened in the real war at any time. In other respects your second statement assumes it takes two to decide to end it.

I'm not saying rader will choose to quit today. But I suspect his experience in his other game will color his patience with a long, drawn out strat bombing phase.

OTOH, if he goes on we begin to see the ramifications of taking auto-vic and VPs off the table. If he has large HI reserves he could concievably fight on after losing Tokyo. Realistic? You be the judge.

Bullwinkle likes black & white end-games. If it comes down to deciding whether a HI invasion trumps taking China and India in the "compared to real world sweepstakes" it'll be disappointing.

OTOH, if rader quits unilaterally, you win. Bottom line.
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