Depth Charging the Nautilus - Cribtop (A) vs Nemo (J) (no Nemo, pls)

[Cribtop]

Well, fellow board members, I am starting a second game with Nemo121. We are picking up the action in the Scenario 2 game played between Canoerebel and Q-Ball, which left off on January 30, 1943. CR's excellent AAR of this titanic struggle is worth reading to know the situation.

We are playing with very minimal house rules as I want to try to elevate my game and get the "full Nemo" effect. I will be playing the Big Green Machine, Nemo will take Japan.

I will not have the time to play 1 turn a day as I do with Cuttlefish. I also don't have time to do an AAR every day. I see this thread as a chance to provide news of "headline events" in the war and to get much-needed advice on strategy and tactics as I take on an opponent that frankly is my better. The whole goal is to sharpen my game from the relative comfort of Allied HQ (with its hordes of everything).

As you may recall, gentle readers, in the previous match Canoerebel planned to invade Sumatra in force and has his pixeltruppen aligned with that as his main effort. The first question I confront is whether to stick with CR's original plan or switch it up. I feel compelled to change course since Nemo followed CR's AAR and thus knows the plan. My instinct is to spend a month or two organizing, prepping and watching to see whether Nemo launches a grand offensive. Then I will launch an attack toward Sumatra that makes it look like I'm sticking to CR's script before unleashing my real offensives.

The questions presented to the board are: What do you think I should do? What do you think Nemo will do?

Discussion welcome! May God have mercy on my forces.

Note that we have agreed to a 7 day cease fire to allow each player to re-org a bit. We may need an exception to this for Diego Garcia as we pick up the game in mid-invasion of that base.

PS - Cuttlefish is welcome in this thread. Please remember not to say anything in this thread that would violate OpSec for either Cuttlefish or me in the other game.

[ny59giants]

I hope your wife has time in her weekly schedule for your counseling sessions. You're going to need it. [;)]

[Cribtop]

[:D][:D] True that, Michael.

[Canoerebel]

Cribtop, I'm glad you picked up this game, agreed to face Nemo, and will maintain an AAR as time permits.  Congrats and good luck!
 
However, the title of your AAR leaves very much to be desired:  "Prepared to take a beating"????
 
I can think of many better possiblities:

1)  Given Such a Great Start, I'm Going to Kick Nemo's Rear-End Across the Globe
2)  Cribtop's Charge!
3)  Cribtop Takes a Perfectly Executed Handoff and Scores!
4)  Rebels Destroy All Opposition, Yankee and Foreign
 
You get the idea.  Come on, man, buck up and fix that title!
 

[zuluhour]

I like number one and number three.

[Cribtop]

Dan,

Nemo is the master of PsOps. I figure a title like this will make him think I feel beaten right out of the gate. The opposite, however, is the case!

That said, I may change the title as you suggest after a few days. That may send a confused message to Nemo.

PS - You did indeed leave me in good shape in this game, so if I do take a beating it's pretty much on me.

PPS - I played wide receiver, so perhaps it will be something about Cribtop catches a perfect fade route in the corner of the end zone. [:D]

[zuluhour]

Lucky you were not tight end!

[obvert]

I like "Broken play, CR avoids a tackle and pitches to Cribtop on the outside ... "

This is GREAT!!! So glad this will be taken up, and couldn't ask for better contestants to carry the game forward. Now I have to go back and catch up on that AAR! There goes the weekend.

[Canoerebel]

I was a lineman, and a poor one at that, so any time I touch the ball I'm likely to fumble it.  So beware of taking a handoff from me.
 
And that applies to the game too.  The Allies were doing okay, and should be in relatively decent position, but by no means did I leave Cribtop a perfect setup.  Some things are a bit sloppy - I was still learning pilot training and the like - and I had most of the Allied army way down south ready to hit Sumatra.  So, Brad will have his hands full straightening out things I left in a mess or in a lurch.
 
Some viewers (including Cribtop) may wonder why I didn't take on Nemo in continuing the game, since it was my game anyway.  I tried to get Nemo to start a new game (I've been trying for a year), but he preferred to pick up this one.  I didn't want to for two reasons:  (1)  at the time, I couldn't start for at least six weeks due to work duties; (2) more importantly, I was reluctant to pick up the game against a new opponent who had read my AAR.  I was going to have to reconfigure everything in light of Nemo's knowledge.  All the planning and effort that had gone into preparing for the Sumatra invasion was out the window.  That just sucked all the enjoyment out of the idea of continuing the game.
 
Good luck, Cribtop.  Nemo is experienced, smart, and very clever, but you are also a very capable player.  All of us watching will learn alot.  I hope (and think) you will do fine.

[Cribtop]

I think we'll go with "Depth Charging the Nautilus"

Exactly, Dan. I feel compelled to switch plans given Nemo's knowledge. However, I hope to use that against him with a strong feint against Port Blair or Sabang.

My broad outline is for the main attack to advance via SWPAC towards the Moluccas, island hop the PI, capture or neuter Formosa, then take the Ryukus to put the home islands in fighter range. There will be lots of feints and diversionary attacks in different theaters.

Intention is to use the large number of bases available to avoid having to make any "big leaps."

[Cribtop]

OK, title changed by public demand. Tomorrow I will work up the first turn.

Goals:

1) All air force must stand down for 7 days other than training missions.

2) We will take each AO in order. Permanently restricted troops will be put into good defensive positions to hold rear areas (CR pretty much has already done this). Each AO will then have 1 designated "gathering base" for unrestricted troops and one "gathering base" for restricted troops that can be bought out.

3) Subs are in pretty good spots, but we will review their dispositions. Kind of CR to let us take over the game right as torpedoes start to go bang.

4) Planning, Planning, Planning. Each AO will be assigned an offensive objective, but we won't expect immediate offensive operations. We have a lot of prep targets to switch up given the need to re-direct our LCUs to a different plan.

5) FYI, CR kept all Allied CVs afloat, awfully good of him. They are at Adelaide undergoing upgrades and will be finished, conveniently, the day the one week truce expires. That said, Cribtop HQ doesn't plan to use the fast carriers much until the Essex arrives.

6) I spent some time today just basking in the glory that is the Allied ship reinforcement screen. Good lord, the power that will someday be mine! Bwahahaha.

[whippleofd]

Fellow Texan, this is gonna be good.

Whipple

[Alfred]

Just because Nemo had read the Allied AAR is not in itself a good reason for changing the Allied plans.

1. Even if the general outline is known to the enemy, execution of a good plan is still better than executing a bad plan.

2. There is already a 7 day truce which is of greater benefit to Japan than the Allies. Changing plans with the consequent need to change force dispositions and objectives gifts Japan an effective truce for 2-3 months.

3. A change in Allied plans now takes the pressure off Japan. It allows Japan opportunity to get in spoiling actions and to contest the initiative.

4. The continuation of what has already been set in motion will be interpreted by the enemy in a particular manner. It affords the Allied player with a perfect cover for changing his second stage planning.

5. You overestimate just how much detail of the Allied planning had been previously disclosed. Had not a single word been previously disclosed, Nemo would already have taken into account the possibility of their existence and taken appropriate counter measures during the truce period.

If Canoerebel's plans were poor, then that would be a justifiable reason to abandon them. But don't do it just because Nemo had read the AAR.

Alfred

[Cribtop]

Alfred,

Thanks for your thoughts. I will give them a lot of consideration. One of my assumptions is that Nemo will seek to mount an offensive or at least a faux offensive. I would be happy to absorb that before going on the offensive myself. No doubt, CR had a good plan. Novel, aimed at a strategically decisive goal (Palembang and the DEI), and IMHO achievable.

I do feel like pursuing that plan gives Nemo a big advantage in several arenas, not least of which is PsyOps as that is what he'll expect me to do. Still, I have learned enough from frequenting these boards to respect your opinion, so I will ponder it while quaffing a few frosty beverages tonight to celebrate the Rangers' ALCS title.

Whipple,

I agree brother. This will be FUN!

[Canoerebel]

Truth In Advertising would render this statement:
 
"...while quaffing a few frosty beverages to celebrate the Rangers' ALCS Title"
 
To this:
 
"...while quaffing a few frosty beverages to forget that the Longhorns had a long day."
 
[:)]

[Cribtop]

Dan, you're killing me! Worse yet, my second favorite South Carolina Gamecocks lost their superstar running back Lattimore, possibly for the year. Ugh, much easier to think about baseball right now.

PS - I found myself saying "Well, the Horns played ok and didn't get humiliated by a better team." Then I remembered savaging my brother the Baylor Bears fan for celebrating moral victories and realized that I've sunk to that level. Crapzor!

[modrow]

Cribtop,

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

I think we'll go with "Depth Charging the Nautilus"

won't work. Back when I was stepping in for 2ndACR against Nemo, I informed him on the ceremonial scuttling of said vessel to no avail. You'll need to take your Psy-Ops to a higher level (Like: Nemo is aware that you will be aware of an advantage for him if you continue the broad, unblockable avenue to legendary victory that Canoerebel has prepared, thus he assumes that you will try to deny him this advantage, leaving said avenue and ceding an even bigger advantage. He may also be aware that it is in human nature that we want to achieve something "by ourselves", which may increase the likelihood for a deviation from the plans someone else has made).

First of all, fold yourself a helmet from Aluminum foil and start wearing it when sitting in front of your computer to protect yourself from the Psy-Waves his E-Mails and turns emit [;)]. More seriously, remember that most likely the game reaches out to E-Mail communication and act accordingly, protecting your OODA loop. Edit: Note that he will also feed you with "success" on map in order to influence said loop and keep you from something more relevant. If something starts working really well, ask yourself about its real value.

Still more seriously, I believe the most important thing is sound strategic analysis (which is independent of your opponent). If you have established a valid strategic solution, you should execute it. Currently, I have the feeling that you account much for eventualities that may be induced by Nemo's actions. Ideally, you should be able to summarize the strategic approach you want to take at this point of time. You don't need to share it with us, but you must know your road to victory and must not wait for a situation on the map that will show you a possible road to victory.

If you want to add some opponent-dependent thinking to your considerations, my starting point would be why Nemo wants to continue this game. Nemo plays for the challenge, he loves taking over in bad situations and achieve a turnaround. That means that based on his own analysis, he is most likely in a dangerous situation and CRs strategic approach to date has been evaluated and considered to be good. If you can clearly formulate a better approach, by all means go for it, but if not I believe Alfred's comments are -as usual- pretty much on spot.

Last not least: Congrats, you are in for a real blast and a great gaming experience. Do enjoy it !

As always, just my 2cts.

Hartwig

[Cribtop]

Hartwig, your post is an excellent contribution. Many thanks.

Point one. It is true I can't worry overmuch about the "Nemo mystique" and fear what he is going to do. The quote from General Grant below says it all:

"Oh, I am heartily tired of hearing about what Lee is going to do. Some of you always seem to think he is suddenly going to turn a double somersault, and land in our rear and on both of our flanks at the same time. Go back to your command, and try to think what are we going to do ourselves, instead of what Lee is going to do."

I need to settle on a sound strategy and pursue it.

Point two. I agree that Canoerebel's strategy against Q-Ball was sound. It does concern me to try to execute a plan known to the enemy, though. Midway comes to mind as a possible outcome when the enemy is reading your sheet music. Still, we now have 2 votes from good players (yours and Alfred's) in favor of continuing ahead. How would that look if I tried it? I would probably have to engage in some pretty convincing Maskirovka and feint offensives on other fronts to lead Nemo to believe I'm going elsewhere. Or, better yet, to convince Nemo that I'm falling for whatever his narrative is (assuming I can figure that out, which can be a risky proposition).

Point three. I'm a Texan that descends from South Carolinians. As such, I'm already a bit crazy, so hopefully the PsyOps waves will bounce off of my madness. [:D] More seriously, no doubt that e-mail communications are part of the game with Nemo and I will proceed with that assumption.

Point four. You are spot on about Nemo. He plays for the challenge and each game has a theme, per his AAR posts in other games. For example - "How can I win with just LBA?" "How can I win by using interior lines?" etc.

[zuluhour]

Alfreds post #13 (note#1) is now a sticky, very simple, very true.

[modrow]

Cribtop,

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Hartwig, your post is an excellent contribution. Many thanks.

Point one. It is true I can't worry overmuch about the "Nemo mystique" and fear what he is going to do. The quote from General Grant below says it all:

"Oh, I am heartily tired of hearing about what Lee is going to do. Some of you always seem to think he is suddenly going to turn a double somersault, and land in our rear and on both of our flanks at the same time. Go back to your command, and try to think what are we going to do ourselves, instead of what Lee is going to do."

I need to settle on a sound strategy and pursue it.

Point two. I agree that Canoerebel's strategy against Q-Ball was sound. It does concern me to try to execute a plan known to the enemy, though. Midway comes to mind as a possible outcome when the enemy is reading your sheet music. Still, we now have 2 votes from good players (yours and Alfred's) in favor of continuing ahead. How would that look if I tried it? I would probably have to engage in some pretty convincing Maskirovka and feint offensives on other fronts to lead Nemo to believe I'm going elsewhere. Or, better yet, to convince Nemo that I'm falling for whatever his narrative is (assuming I can figure that out, which can be a risky proposition).

Point three. I'm a Texan that descends from South Carolinians. As such, I'm already a bit crazy, so hopefully the PsyOps waves will bounce off of my madness. [:D] More seriously, no doubt that e-mail communications are part of the game with Nemo and I will proceed with that assumption.

Point four. You are spot on about Nemo. He plays for the challenge and each game has a theme, per his AAR posts in other games. For example - "How can I win with just LBA?" "How can I win by using interior lines?" etc.

your response provokes a few more comments:

a) I absolutely love the idea that you will continue Canoerebel's game in the spirit of General Grant. [8D]

b) I believe that operation MI was not based on a sound plan (I guess you have read "Shattered Sword", if not I can only recommend it).

c) thanks for putting me in the "good player" box, but I am more aware of my many faults than my few qualities, thus I feel a bit misplaced. Put me in the avid learners box instead.

d) Whatever feint you use, make sure it is strategically sound as well, otherwise it will be dismissed. The failure to provide valid threats was one of my key mistakes in the turns I was allowed to play against him. You can be sure Nemo does his assessment homework, and he does it adroitly.

e) Point four leads to an interesting question (which I cannot answer, but provides something to think about): Is there a theme that comes to mind in view of the starting situation? Identifying the theme may open interesting options.

As always, just my 2cts.

Hartwig