Suave mari magno – RA as Japan, Soliinvictus202 and fcharton (no swift and undercovergeek, please)

[fcharton]

Incipit

How sweet to stand, when tempests tear the main,
On the firm cliff, and mark the seaman's toil!
Not that another's danger soothes the soul,
But from such toil how sweet to feel secure!
How sweet, at distance from the strife, to view
Contending hosts, and hear the clash of war!
(Lucretius, tr. John Mason Good)

Good morning, gaijins and welcome to our war. Take a seat, make yourself comfortable, and watch us toil, strife, suffer, and eventually be administered a shameful defeat (yeah, wait long long, as they say in Singapore…)


A month ago, after six months of war (nine in real life), SoliInvictus202 (Roland) and I realized that, given the difference in our interests and playing styles, we would make better teammates than opponents. We put our current game on hold (it is not officially dead, please restrain from commenting about it here), began discussing how we would play Japan as a team, got carried over at some point, and ended up issuing a challenge that was promptly met by Undercovergeek and Swift (who should stop reading now if they chance upon this)

So, here we go again, I'm afraid.

We will be playing Reluctant Admiral 3.4, which is like scenario 1 with a reinforced Japanese Navy, beefed up production, and much less supplies at start. We intend to play with PDU on (but realistic R&D). So far, home rules are minimal (only existing Allied TF on turn one, no four engine bombers on naval attack below 10 000 feet), but our opponents have still to react about the home rules they want. We are in the planning phase, and expect the war to begin in the second half of October.

We have agreed on the following split of duties. SoliInvictus202 will be in charge of all frontline operations in the Pacific and the East Indies. I will take care of China, the economy and all rear area operations (ie convoys). Strategy will be decided jointly. I will also be the main contributor to this logbook, which means, incidentally, that frontline operations will be seen from afar.


Before the game begins, I intend to use this AAR to ramble about the economy and how difficult it is to be a quartermaster. Our war will naturally be featured here, as it develops, but since there will be times when little is happening, and this AAR gets less fun to read (and even less fun to write), I am considering having a “side story” which I can use when the war gets dull. I don’t have Cuttlefish’s writing talent, nor Cap Mandrake’s humor, so I will probably try discussing another longstanding personal project: a translation from an ancient Chinese treatise on diplomacy/psyops, known as the Guiguzi, which relates to my function in this game as head of the Chinese theater, and would probably have been known to some of the more educated Japanese officers of the time. More about that later…

[fcharton]

November 1941, the reluctant quartermaster
As promised, I am using this AAR to think aloud about the economy. I am a big fan of kitchen table maths, ie incorrect methods that provide half-decent results. Expect a lot of those here.

I’m very interested in comments and criticism about those calculations. I’d rather be corrected by readers than by our opponents.

General, and bleak, economic outlook

Economic situation is pretty much the same as in Scenario one, just a little worse. In Reluctant Admiral, Japan begins the war with about 10% less fuel and supplies than in scenario 1, but with a slightly larger industry. Overall, the economy starts at a deficit. Without ship fuel usage, the economy eats up 16.5k resources, 7.2k oil and 5.6k fuel reserves every day.

Resources and oil stocks can sustain this during 14 months. This is more than we need to expand. With fuel, it gets a bit tricky: if we assume a ship fuel usage around 20k / day (intensive, but not lavish, this is what you need if you want to use many of your naval toys), fuel will last for about five months. This is enough to capture the oil, but it means convoys to bring it back have to be planned in advance.

(Note: when the scenario begins, Tracker does not count “bunker fuel”, and it seems all ships get a free bunker of fuel on the first days of the game, so the situation is not as dire as it seems. Doesn’t make it nice, though…)

In the long run, oil is, of course, the limiting factor on our expansion. If we capture all the oilfields in the DEI and China, and have them all repaired, we will produce about 33k oil, or 30k fuel, per day. Now, the economy uses 15k fuel per day, and only saves about a thousand HI points. This means that even under the best conditions, our ship usage will be very constrained. (It also means that we need to devise two plans: one if the DEI capture goes fine, and another one if it gets terribly wrong).

In the short term, Japan begins with good stocks in forward areas. As in scenario 1, the only early logistical problem is bringing enough resources to the Home Islands (which need to import 83k resource point per day).

Slide rule ship fuel

Since fuel is our limiting factor, we have to closely monitor its use. Industrial usage is easy for follow and predict, thanks to Tracker, but ship fuel is more complex. For what it is worth, here is my kitchen table math.

In the game, ships use endurance. Moving one hex at cruise speed costs 40 endurance (at max speed, it would be about 3.5 times more). Surface combat costs the equivalent of 5 hexes. Finally a task force remaining in port, undocked, will use the equivalent of a cruise speed move (per turn, says the manual, so I suppose this is half the cost of movement, but better avoid those anyway).

The fuel efficiency of a ship class can be calculated by dividing its fuel capacity by its endurance/40. This is its fuel usage per hex move. The lower, the better. Alternatively, we could use the inverse (endurance/fuel = miles per ton of fuel).

For surface ships, these values vary greatly by class and speed. The key is to get an estimate of daily use at sea. Here are my current rules of thumb:

DD: 50 fuel / day (x7 if full speed, +50% if combat)
CL: 90 /day (except Kitakami 160/day, and Katori 30/day)
CA: 100 / day
CV: 150 / day (except Akagi and Kaga, 250)
BB: 200 / day (except Yamato, 300)

Using this rule, you can estimate KB uses about 2.5k fuel every day it is at sea, more if it fights.

Transport ships use a different metric: for them, fuel efficiency has to be related to cargo, basically, you need to multiply the above value by the ship cargo size. This translates into a measure of shipping tons transported over an hex per fuel point. This is very important when planning conversions into auxiliaries. Just to give an example : Kyushus and Husimi convert into the same classes, but Kyushus move 1700 tons.hex / FP, and Husimis 900 tons hex / FP. Guess who I’m converting.

Too many merchies

All Japanese players agree that we start the game with an oversized merchant marine. But just how oversized? Here’s my approach, for what it is worth.

For solid cargoes (resources and supplies), I first observed that the Japanese economy produces, every day 275k resources and about 25k supplies. Note also that resources and supplies tend to follow opposite paths, which means supplies tend to move from Japan to the periphery, while resources go the other way. This suggests that some of the supply transports can be handled by resource convoys on their way back. In any case, tonnage needed for supply transport represent a very small fraction (a few percents) of convoy tonnage. Therefore, the estimation can be limited to resources.

I want a maximum tonnage needed. For this, I considered all the resources produced in China, the DEI and Burma, removed all those that could be locally processed by industry, and considered the rest had to be sent to Japan, from the nearest port (discounting optimizations, such as a land move from Singapore to Port Arthur)

For each region, I get a daily production to be shipped, and a number of days for a convoy round trip (I based my calculation on a 6 hex/day speed, which is what 12 knotters seem to achieve, always rounding up). The product of the daily production by the round trip duration is the convoy tonnage I need there…

Note that this is probably quite inflated, since I consider ALL resources in China and the SRA will be captured, repaired, and used. In reality, the Japanese economy always has a surplus of resources. Also, many improvements (such as industry building in China, or land moves) are not taken into account. Again, I want a cap, not an average.

Here’s a series of estimates per region (I can go into more details if someone is interested). The figures after each region are the number of resource centres, daily production, number of days for a roundtrip, and total needed tonnage.

Hokkaido : 1750, 35k, 3, 105k
Sakhalin : 500, 10k, 7, 70k
Formosa 200, 4k, 7, 28k
China Manchuria Korea : 1300, 26k, 6, 156k
Indochina: 250, 5k, 20, 100k
Philippines, 200, 4k, 12, 48k
Gilberts 175, 3.5k, 30, 105k
Java 200, 4k, 30, 120k
Sumatra 300, 6k, 24, 144k
Malaysia 150, 3k, 24, 72k
Borneo 80, 1.6k, 24, 37k
Burma 80, 1.6k, 20, 32k
Celebes 60, 1.2k, 30, 36k
New Guinea 20, 0.4k, 30, 12k

Overall, this suggests I need about a million tons shipping to handle this large perimeter. And this is most certainly a maximum. Now, Japan begins the game with 3.5 million tons cargo load. Guess what I’m not building?

I did a similar calculation on oil/fuel, which proved the tanker (and AO) fleet at start (about half a million tons) to be just sufficient to move all the oil/fuel we could possibly grab. This is good news, since we actually need less (a lot of fuel moves in bunkers, not aboard tankers), and it suggests that, with a few conversions and building, we can probably keep up. Again, the limiting factor is most certainly oilfields, not tankers.

All this suggests merchant shipyards can probably be much reduced. Whether I should stop them to save HI, or convert them into Naval Yards is (still) an open question…


That’s all for today, gaijins, comments and criticisms are more than welcome.

[DivePac88]

Definitely subscribed to this one...

and good luck there boys, give those AFB's hell.

[fcharton]

November 1941, the merchant admiral

Evening, gaijins,

Now that I know I only need about a third of my merchant marine, I can afford to be selective about the ships I use. This is also the right time to discuss conversions.

The previous discussion shows that the number of cargoes I need depend (linearly) on two factors: their tonnage (the larger the ships, the less you need) and their speed (the faster the ships, the shorter the roundtrips, the less you need). In the context of AE, another important factor is their fuel effectiveness (which I express in tons hexes per fuel point). These factors are all the more important as the shipping lane is long. You don’t need fast, or efficient, ships, to cross the Hokkaido straits. A second important aspect is that whereas some of the cargoes I will not use will become a reserve, many of them will be converted to utility ships. Those two aspects are linked, since not every class can convert.

Now, what kind of cargoes do we want? Fast ones, and large enough to be fuel effective. At 5000 tons per cargo, this means I need about 200 hulls.

xAKL are out. I’ll keep a few for forward duties, but most of them are slow, and not efficient in term of fuel. Most of them will be converted (see below). I don’t want Gozan class either, even as a reserve. 10 knots, not really fuel-efficient. There are 58 of them, those are my AG, and AGP…

My best ships, in terms of fuel use are the Kyushu (32 hulls), Lima (46), Yusen A and Yusen N (64). That’s 140 ships, all 14 knots or more. Then I have the Aden (189 hulls), which are only 12 knots, but would be fine for short distances (2-4 hexes).

The Yusen N convert to AK in June 1942. So I might want other 14 knotters to replace them. The Husimi are out (I need to convert them), so the less efficient Toho and Ansyu C might be used as replacements.

So, my cargo classes will be Kyushu, Lima and Yusen A, for long distances (plus Toho and Ansyu C, if needed) and Aden for short hops. This means most of the PB (all except Ansyu class) cannot serve as escorts. We begin the game with 50 Ansyu PB. We also have about 30 faster TB and E. This would be enough for all the cargoes, but might be tight if we consider the tankers as well. Ansyu C cargoes might need to be converted at some point (which means I will use Toho as my reserve 14 knot class).

What with other PB? They will serve ASW or picket duties.


Now that we have picked our cargo classes, we can discuss conversions. After reading Mike Solli’s thread on the matter, I have come to realize that all conversions are useful to some extent. Here are my ideas so far.

AR are nice to have in forward position. We begin the game with four. Kyushus and Husimi can convert, but the process takes a year (!!!) and is only available in April (Kyushu) or May 1942 (Husimi), which means there is not chance we can have more than four AR before April 1943. I am planning to convert a few Husimis (probably four), to replace my losses, and keep the AR we start with in second line bases (eg Truk and Kwajalein).

AS and AV are important classes, as they allow us to have forward sub and seaplane bases. Rader seems to have used AV with some success as raiders. We start with eight of each (plus one more AV in march 42). Conversion takes 6 months, Husimi and Kyushus are the only eligible classes.

Since the Kyushus will be my fast cargoes, I will use the Husimis for those three converts. I have 25, and plan to convert four or five into AR, and the rest into AS and AV, probably a bit more AV than AS. Right now, I would go for 4 AR, 8 AS and 13 AV… 18 Husimis begin the game in port, 7 in task forces, I might lose some of them before I can convert them.

AK This is straightforward. We begin with 10 Yusen S. Three classes can convert : Kyushus, Husimi and Yusen N, in June 42. I will use Yusen N, and convert all of them (almost 60) in June. These become important after May, when the invasion bonus disappears.


AG/AGP: needed to reload DC on ASW task forces, and patrol boats. This one is easy too : Gozan and Miyati convert to those (only). We have 120 of them, more than we need, probably.

AD: Ehime and Akasi convert to AD, we have 115 of them, again more than we need (the advantage of AD over AG is that they can tend destroyers, but we don’t have so many destroyers to warrant a lot of them).

AKE : Ehime, Akasi and Aden convert to AKE. Again, we have lots of those. Ansyu and Toho can convert as well, if we needed fast AKE (14 knots).

AKV: this is the only conversion I find a bit useless. Most of my planes have long enough legs to transfer. The real short legged (Claudes notably) still can hop, or be transported damaged. Adens, my largest cargo class, can do those, so we might go for a few.

What about xAKL? The main conversions for them are to ACM and PB. Most of the PB are needed for ASW and picket duties (too slow for escorts now that we only kept fast cargoes).

ACM, we start with about 10 000 mines, which needs about 70 ACM to tend, and produce about 200 more per month, which would mean 15 ACM/year. Altogether, something like 120-150 ACM will be needed. Two classes convert to ACM : Tosu (120 hulls) and Kiso (115). We begin the game with 18 Tosu ACM. 37 Tosu cargoes and 10 AMc will be converted, for a total of 65 Tosu ACM. The rest will be kept as AMc (18) and 12 knot PB (34). I will convert half of the Kisos (60) to ACM, the rest becoming PB and CMc.

Kasu-D and Daigen are left unused. They might serve as forwards base transports, or become AG, but they will start as reserve.


This completes my plans for xAK(L) use and conversion. Here’s the summary.

Kyushu, Lima, Yusen A are my fast cargos (14+ knots). Yusen S start as xAK, but will be converted to AK in June 42. Toho are my fast cargo replacements.

Aden will be my slow cargos (12 knots). I have plenty of those.

Ansyu-C will be converted to PB, they are my preferred escorts, except for the Kyushu, which will get TB and E. Slow cargos, operating on short shipping lanes, will usually have SC for escorts (low endurance).

Husimi will be converted to AR (4), AS (8) and AV (12).
All Gozan and some Miyati will be converted to AG.
Some Ehime will convert to AD
Akasi, Ehime (and Aden if need be) to AKE
Half of the Tosu and Kiso will be converted to ACM, the rest mostly being PB.

When will the conversion happen? As soon as possible, at least for the ships that begin the game in invasion task forces.

Should we build more merchants? I don’t think so, except for Tankers, and classes that convert into them. This will be discussed in a later installment.

[PaxMondo]

AKE - watch the size ... matters a GREAT deal as it directly correlates to the devices that they can re-arm.

Otherwise, I am with you. I like AS/AG/AV for all the reasons you mention. I also use Husimi for these.

[fcharton]

Hi Pax,

Thanks for the tip.

I checked AKE tonnage. Apparently, the only difference between various xAK conversions is the BB guns (which is not a detail, of course). You need capacity over 2970 to reload 36cm guns. This means Ehime is a bad idea, but Akasi and Aden are fine. Over 36cm, the 40cm that equip Nagato-class BB (Nagato and Mutsu) need 4500 capacity, ie Yusen N or Lima, and no one can reload the Yamato. I think I'll spare a couple Limas, just for the sake of the Nagato class...

Francois

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: fcharton

Hi Pax,

Thanks for the tip.

I checked AKE tonnage. Apparently, the only difference between various xAK conversions is the BB guns (which is not a detail, of course). You need capacity over 2970 to reload 36cm guns. This means Ehime is a bad idea, but Akasi and Aden are fine. Over 36cm, the 40cm that equip Nagato-class BB (Nagato and Mutsu) need 4500 capacity, ie Yusen N or Lima, and no one can reload the Yamato. I think I'll spare a couple Limas, just for the sake of the Nagato class...

Francois

My same conclusion, so I convert Lima's. Have lot's of them, and AKE's are just so important and NOT being able to reload BB's can interfere a lot with tactics. As for the Yamato's; only that specific AKE can do it. So I typically marry that up with the Yamato support TF.

[John 3rd]

Signed up and will contribute as you guys play out our baby!

[John 3rd]

That is a concise and excellent overview of the Japanese Merchant classes and conversion options. NICE work.

What are your plans with Tankers, AOs, and then the Standards?

[fcharton]

November 441 BC, meet the Master
As explained previously, I intend to post, when little is happening or I just don't feel like talking about the war, translations of ancient Chinese texts, mostly from the Guiguzi, an old treatise on persuasion and psychology, which gives, I believe, a good insight on asian strategic thought. This is the first installment.


Guiguzi (Kweiku Tzu), the Master of Ghost Valley, is said to have lived in China in the fourth century BC. Like Sun Wu, the fifth century general associated with the Sun Tzu, he is not mentioned in texts of his time, but he is remembered from a book bearing his name.

The oldest texts mentioning him are the Records of the Grand Historian and the Stratagems of the Warring States, both from the second century. They portray him as the teacher of four famous persons: generals Sun Bin and Pang Juan, and diplomats Su Qin and Zhang Yi.

Around the second or third century AD, he became a minor figure in the Taoist pantheon. A characteristic of Chinese religions was their habit of divinizing various real or legendary characters, not unlike the Catholic saints. A Taoist from the seventh century wrote a biography of him (which can be found, presented as hard facts, on serious internet resources like Wikipedia). Later, historical romances (a very developed genre in China) expanded his story into a multitude of anecdotes, all apocryphal.

However little known his biography, the era when he lived is important when trying to understand his book (and other texts associated with that period). At the beginning of the Warring States, the old feudal system, where China was ruled by a small aristocracy of clans under one Heavenly King, is crumbling. In the central state of Jin (the area of Chengchow, and Taiyuan) a few powerful clans have deposed the old ruling family, fought each other, and split the state into three smaller ones, which the Heavenly King (who belonged to the same clan as the former rulers of Jin) had no choice but accept. In Qi (Tsinan-Tsingtao), the larger families rule the state by proxy. In Chu (Changsha) the king has stopped paying tribute to the Heavenly King. Small states get conquered by larger ones, until only seven are left, which will fight each other until 221 BC, when the king of the westernmost state of Qin (Sian), having conquered all others, finally claims the imperial throne.

As the old aristocratic clans fade away, replaced by some of their former vassals, a new social class, the landed gentry, begins filling the positions of generals or governors that used to be devoted to younger sons of noble clans. To train those new administrations, schools and academies are created, and books, summarizing their teaching, get written. The Guiguzi, the main subject of this series of posts, is one of those books.


Its authenticity is a longstanding problem. No mention of it is to be found in the inventories of imperial libraries before the Tang dynasty (7th century AD). Its style is also very peculiar. For this reason, many historians have considered it a late forgery, while others maintained it was an old classic that had been censored out of the Imperial library because of its sensitive content.

It cannot have been written later than the fifth century AD (there is a commentary of it from that period). There are three main theories about its origin:

- It is an early Warring States text, written by Guiguzi or one of his students, that was kept hidden or censored away from the imperial library due to its politically sensitive content.
- Like many other classics, it is a late Warring States or Western Han compilation, based on texts from the students of Guiguzi
- It is a forgery from the third century AD, written at a time when Guiguzi began to be worshipped by the Taoists, and based upon a romanced story of him and his disciples

Its classification is another difficulty. Some commentators have considered it a military treatise, about strategy and deception. Others describe it as a book about persuasion and rhetoric. Taoists used to see it as a hermetic religious text. In any case, it tells of psychology, discourse, and mind games (this is the reason why I believe it has its place here). In recent times, it has been studied and commented by military authors (in China, but also in the West).


Its language is very difficult, and the text is quite obscure. I don't pretend to understand all of it, but I do believe there is a good chance it will "speak" to some members of this forum (I'm doing this because I'm interested in your comments, gaijins). I will try to provide a translation, but also vocabulary and notes so that those interested can have a try at interpreting it.

It was translated into English by Thomas Cleary, under the name "Thunder from the sky". A number of academic translations (PhD dissertations mostly) can also be found in universities.


The Master speaks

The Guiguzi is written in Ancient Chinese. Since I love this language, I can't resist talking about it (just skip if you're not interested, gaijin).

Ancient Chinese (also known as Classical Chinese) is a very compact written language, with a very terse grammar. You can probably think of it as telegraphic style gone mad. As in modern Chinese, all words are invariable, there are no tense, no genre, no singular and plural. Even the distinction between nouns, verbs and adjectives is often unclear. The same character can mean "good", "a good person", "like" (consider as good), "prefer", and so on.

As an example of how it works, here is a famous sentence from Sun Tzu (note the nice parallelism between the two quotes, this is one of the nice features of this language, the garbled characters just below are an attempt at typing chinese in the text, the forum software seems to have lots of difficulties with this...).
?Ÿ•º?æ?ŸŽ§Œã‹??D
”s•º?æ?DŽ§Œã‹??Ÿ
勝兵先勝而後求戰
敗兵先戰而後求勝

Word by word
victory / soldier / first / victory / and / then / seek / battle
defeat / soldier / first / battle / and / then / seek / victory

which gives (I really like that saying):
victors first prevail then seek conflict, losers first fight then seek victory.

The nice aspect of this language is that, with just the vocabulary and a little practice, anyone can play (because there is no grammar).

Back to Guiguzi and in case anyone is still reading at this point, here's a rough translation the beginning. It is pretty obscure, I'll provide details later (and most certainly will correct a couple of mistakes). So, for what it is worth...


Open and Close

See how the sages of old stood between Heavens and Earth!
Before all living things
Watching the cycle of Yin and Yang, they passed judgments
Knowing the paths between life and death, they foresaw the beginning and the end of ideas
Understanding the ways of the human heart, they could discern the germ of change
While keeping watch, at the door
Thus were the sages, in the world.

Since old times, these principles remain
Change never ceases
Everything comes back
Then Yin, then Yang, then soft, then hard, then open, then close, then relaxed, then tense.
Therefore, the sage always keeps watch at their door.

He ponders origin and outcome, length and weight, capacity and ability.
He looks at talents, weaknesses and strengths
And since wise and unwise, bright and silly, brave and coward, all differ in virtue and righteousness
The sage sometimes opens and sometimes closes, sometimes advances and sometimes retreats, sometimes despises and sometimes praises.
He remains detached, and therefore herds them
He decides what they are, judging them from facts
By following their penchants and desires, he understands their desires and their ideas
He cares not about what they say, and will turn their words upside down, to check their reality
He tries to catch what they want to close, and open it, to discover their goals

[fcharton]

November 1941, the refueling corporal

A couple of ideas on tankers and oilers, and, more generally on fuel and oil management in the game.

Local production and needs

Oil production at start is 3760 points per day (once the oilfield in Anshan is repaired).Total oil production (all repaired) in the DEI, Burma and China is 29 750, for a grand total of 33.5k oil points per day, or about 30k fuel points per day. This is my “peak oil”, I can’t have more.

Japan begins the game with a refining capacity of 11k oil points per day. Total refining capacity in the DEI, Burma and China amounts to 25.7k oil points per day, for a total of 36.7 k. I have a little extra capacity, so I can afford to not repair Miri and a few other bases that might be damaged on capture, but I need pretty much all my refineries in the DEI.

In the DEI, oil output exceeds refining capacity by 45 in New Guinea, 30 in Java, 130 in Borneo (280 is Miri is not repaired), 180 in Sumatra, between 400 and 550 centres, or 4k to5.5k oil points per day. On the Continent (and Formosa), production is 50 centres over capacity. In Japan (once the oil from Hokkaido and Sakhalin have been brought back), I have about 750 extra refineries.

To summarize, about 5.5k tons of oil should be brought back to Japan every day from the DEI, 500 from China, and 450 from Hokkaido and Sakhalin. That’s all there is to oil movement.

Fuel movement is a bit more complicated, since it needs to take into account industry and ship demand.

Heavy industry uses 15k fuel points per day. This will probably remain stable in the first year of the game. My merchant marine was estimated at about 200 hulls. Assuming an average fuel usage of 5 points per hex (this is what I calculated from Tracker) and six hexes per day, I need 30 fuel point per day and per ship, or 6k fuel / day for the merchant marine. This is probably a high estimate (it assumes every ship sails every day), but I also have tankers and utility ships, above those 200 hulls. This leaves 9k fuel/day at most, probably 5k in reality, for the navy.

If we look at fuel production per region, we see that Japan produces about 8k/day, China about 2.7k (maximum) and Burma/Thailand around 3.3k. Local Chinese and Burmese production is more than sufficient for local industry. Japan needs 12.6k, 4.6k more than its production. Add to this a few merchants refueling in Japan (as a rule, my merchants will refuel in the DEI), and I need to ship 6k fuel every day to the Home Island (on top of the 6k oil).

Other fuel usage, say 6k for merchant ships and 6k for the navy will mostly come from the DEI.

I intend not to use tankers (or very few) to refuel merchant convoys. The idea is to let the cargoes come and refuel on their way to the DEI, or, at worst, to send other merchants (with large bunkers) to serve as ‘gas stations’.

For the navy, shipments will have to be made to the refueling hubs (Truk, Rabaul, …) Assuming a 24 days roundtrip from the DEI, I need 144k tons of tankers for this.

Finally, the 12k oil and fuel shipment to Japan would represent a tonnage of about 288k (24 days x 12k), but I am hoping to reduce this significantly by trying to let oil and fuel flow overland, from Singapore to Port Arthur (and perhaps even Fusan). If this worked, I could probably divide the tonnage in half.

Depending on whether I can move fuel and oil overland, my tanker tonnage therefore stands between 300 and 400k. The total liquid capacity of my tankers (without the oilers) at game start is 414k.

Tankers and oilers

The above calculation shows that I probably have enough tankers at start. 17 oilers add 150k tons to my transport capacity. 17 more cargoes (Std-C) can convert in June 1942, for about 50k tons more, and 7 tankers are scheduled for production in 1942 (57k tons).

This means I probably don’t need to produce the Std cargoes. I don’t need them as cargoes, so the only reason would be that I can convert them into tankers. But then, I probably will have enough tankers anyway.

The case of oilers is more interesting. I begin the game with 17 of them, but only 8 are fast enough to be of use. Two fast tanker classes (Type 1 TL and Type N TL) can convert into efficient oilers. Since I will not need tankers before the DEI is captured, I intend to convert a number of TK into AO. They are almost as efficient, and can serve different roles.

The use of various classes is straightforward. The faster, larger and more fuel effective tankers (Type 1 TL, Tonan Whalers) will only fit in very large ports. At the other end, I have a flotilla of small, and slower, models that can be used to extract oil from the small ports where they are produced.

That’s all for the fuel and oil, gaijins. A lot of details remain to be discussed, but I will take care of this once the DEI falls.

[fcharton]

November 1941 – Convoy madness

My teammate has given his orders. I have performed the China Shuffle (all those crazy little orders to fill garrison duties with collaborator units and therefore free the good IJA boys…). The first turn is almost ready. No, gaijins, I won’t tell you what we’re up to. I won’t even blame it on OPSEC and loose lips. I only do this to keep you reading.

I am now planning the convoys, and this is proving slightly more complicated than I thought at first.

The problem at hand is relatively simple: I want to bring resource produced in Sakhalin (10k/day), Hokkaido (35k/day) and China/Manchuria/Korea (15k/day) back to Honshu. This does not cover all my industrial needs (Japan needs 82k resources per day, nor does it repatriate all resource production (there are surpluses in Indochina and Formosa), but they are a good start.

To do this efficiently, I need to make convoy rotations as fast as possible. This means three things:
- Short roundtrips
- Fast loading/unloading
- Fast ships wherever I can

Loading/unloading speed is, in my opinion, the most important factor. Over short roundtrips, loading times are the real bottlenecks. For resources, load rates and maximum load per day heavily depend upon local resource production. Also, to keep the management simple, I will try to use different ship classes on different lanes.

In the North, to keep the trips short, I intend to move resources from Tohoyara, in Sakhalin, to Wakkanai, in northern Hokkaido. Resources will then move south by road or train, and to Northern Northern Honshu from Hakodate.

For the Sakhalin lane, the port of Wakkanai is the bottleneck. It can handle 12k resources per day, which is more than Sakhalin produces, but is limited to 2k per ship and per day. This means those convoys must use small vessels.

Kasu-D are my best option, here. They cruise at 10 knots, which means they will cover the 6 hexes between Tohoyara and Wakkanai in just a day. Add a day to load (probably less in fact) and one to unload: total rotation time, four days. This means four task forces (plus reserves), each with about 10k capacity. Kasu-D have a cargo load of 1750, and as resources use up to 92% of the load, or 1600, I need seven per task force, and 28 on that shipping lane (plus reserves and escorts). I have 46 Kasu-D, this is more than I need. Ansyu PB will be used for escorts (all Ansyu-C cargoes are being converted to PB now).


In South Hokkaido, I need to transfer 45k resources per day (35k from Hokkaido and 10k from Sakhalin). The port of Hakodate can do this with ease, but neither Ominato nor Hirozaki can unload 45k/per day. I therefore need two shipping lanes from Hakodate to each of them. Both have a daily handling limit around 30k. Individual ship limit is 3200 tons for Ominato and 3600 for Hirozaki.

Hirozaki will be my main shipping destination. I will transfer 30k resources per day, using Ehime cargoes (the largest the port can accommodate). This means 9 or 10 ships per TF, and three TF, or 30 ships plus reserves. I have 58 Ehime at start. In Ominato I will use Std-C and Gozan (I would prefer the former, but I don’t think I have enough). I want to ship 15k/day, which means three TF of 6 Std-C or 7 Gozan, or 20 ships plus reserves.

Since these task forces are limited to the straits, I will use six SC to patrol the area, and will mine both ends of the straits. The convoys need no escort.


The last important convoy lane is Korea. At start, I have 15k per day to bring back to Honshu. Fusan can handle all this, since it can unload 19k/day. It is limited to 2k per ship, though, so I will use Miyati or Daigen xAKL for the task (3 task forces, 10 Miyati or 14 Daigen per TF, plus reserves, unloading in Fukuoka). As with Hakodate, there is no need for escorts, mines and SC patrols in the straits should suffice.

In the long run, Fusan will not be enough. More resources will be captured in China, and resources will flow north from Indochina. Small ports around Fusan (Chinhae, mostly) can cope with small additional amounts, but as soon as production grows, I will need to use Keijo, the only port in the area that can accommodate large cargos. As it is 12 hexes away from Honshu, this will probably be my longest shipping lane. I will try to use 18 knot xAK (Kyushus). At 14 knot cruise speed, round trips should take 5 days (one or two more if supplies are brought back). In the long run, this will be my main shipping lane, as all resources from the DEI will flow be brought to China, and made to flow to Keijo.


There are a few interesting lessons to be learnt from this analysis.

First, whereas speed and distance plays a role in convoy calculation, loading rate is the heart of the matter. You need to load and unload in a day, and this constrains the choice of ports and ships used.

Because of this, medium or large cargoes (ie Aden and above) are not very useful for convoy duties, since few ports can load them in a day. I will convert some of them, use others to ship supplies or fuel between large ports, but small xAK (Gozan, Std-C) and large xAKL (Miyati, Daigen, Kasu D) are my real convoy ships.

Finally, it confirms the number of hulls I need for convoy duties is relatively low. At present, I need 30 for Sakhalin, 50 for Hokkaido and 30 for Korea, for a total of 110 hulls plus reserves, say 150. Once Keijo opens fur business, this number will grow, but not hugely (since I will use larger ships there).

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: fcharton

[Finally, the 12k oil and fuel shipment to Japan would represent a tonnage of about 288k (24 days x 12k), but I am hoping to reduce this significantly by trying to let oil and fuel flow overland, from Singapore to Port Arthur (and perhaps even Fusan). If this worked, I could probably divide the tonnage in half.

Even getting the oil/fuel to flow to PA will reduce your tanker demand drastically ... 70% or more. If you can get it to Fusan, you'll need only about 10% or the tankers you have planned ... HUGE difference.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: fcharton

In the long run, Fusan will not be enough.

Fusan can be built to lvl 8 port .... correct? That's 108,800 resouces load/day capability if I did my math correctly.

[fcharton]

Hi Pax,

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo
Fusan can be built to lvl 8 port .... correct? That's 108,800 resouces load/day capability if I did my math correctly.

This is true, and I will try to build Fusan, but the ship load per day bottleneck would remain: 3600 tons per ship at level 8, I believe.

This said, if I don't develop my industry in Japan (but instead choose to grow indsutry in Korea and Manchukuo), I only need to ship 20k more resources per day. A level 5 Fusan, would come very close to this... More would be needed as fuel would come on top, but you are most certainly right, developping Fusan, and perhaps Moppo as well, seems like the way to go. This would mean very little need for cargoes and tankers...

Hmm, let me see, where are those engineers?

Francois

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: fcharton

In the long run, Fusan will not be enough.

Fusan can be built to lvl 8 port .... correct? That's 108,800 resouces load/day capability if I did my math correctly.

I built fusan to level 8. The problem I find is with the base lacking industry, the resources still tend to stockpile at Keijo. Fuel also tends to dibble in and if Port Arthur is low then it will take a little time to keep Fusan flush. Of course at least being a level 8 port you'll almost always be able to suck out 8k fuel almost everyday and if you dock excess transports they also increase the fuel draw to Fusan.

I expand Wakkanai, Sakhalin, Hakodate and Ominato to as high as they will go. I have problems with too efficient resource flow to Honshu from these bases. The bottleneck for me is resource production as opposed to load/unloading. I'm always waiting for resources to become available it seems.

I'm in the process of creating other resources hubs. I'd like to get as high a resource stockpile in the Home Islands as possible. If for nothing else just to see how efficient I can get at it and see just how much I can accumulate.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: fcharton

Hi Pax,

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo
Fusan can be built to lvl 8 port .... correct? That's 108,800 resouces load/day capability if I did my math correctly.

This is true, and I will try to build Fusan, but the ship load per day bottleneck would remain: 3600 tons per ship at level 8, I believe.

This said, if I don't develop my industry in Japan (but instead choose to grow indsutry in Korea and Manchukuo), I only need to ship 20k more resources per day. A level 5 Fusan, would come very close to this... More would be needed as fuel would come on top, but you are most certainly right, developping Fusan, and perhaps Moppo as well, seems like the way to go. This would mean very little need for cargoes and tankers...

Hmm, let me see, where are those engineers?

Francois

Yep, whichis why I do not use Aden's there. I use smaller xAK that will fill in one turn.

[fcharton]

'Jeeves', I recollect saying, 'who was the fellow who on looking at something felt like somebody looking at something? I learned the passage in school, but it has escaped me.'
'I fancy the individual you have in mind, sir, is the poet Keats, who compared his emotions on first reading Chapman's Homer to those of stout Cortez when with eagles eyes he stared at the Pacific.'
'The Pacific, eh?'
'Yes, sir. And all his men looked at each other with a wild surmise, silent upon a peak in Darien.'
'Of course, it all comes back to me. Well that's how I felt this afternoon
(PG Wodehouse)

December 7th 1941, Perfidious Albion

In the early hours of December 7th, 300 miles west of the Philippine coast, an unarmed convoy of four Japanese tankers and three transports, on their way to Cam Ranh Bay for refit, were attacked by three destroyers flying the pennants of the British Navy. All tankers and two transport ships were sunk. Only the Buenos Aires Maru made it to Cam Ranh in a damaged state. All ship captains were posthumously awarded the Sailor Moon Cross, with Ramen palms.

In the face of such a blatant act of state-sponsored piracy, two carrier task forces, on their way to Saigon, were allowed to launch retaliatory strikes against the pirate port of origin (Hong Kong) and their reported destination (Manila). Several submarines, poised to attack more merchant ships, were sunk. To further protect the sea lanes, expeditionary forces landed in Batan Island, Mauban and Kota Baru.

As a result, Great Britain and the United States of America, hypocritically labeling such security measures as “overt acts of war”, declared war upon the Empire of Japan.

Japan desires peace and harmony in South East Asia, but those lofty goals run contrary to the dark motives of colonial oppressors. Their constant provocations, their unending support for terrorist groups in China, and today’s attack on merchant ships must be opposed.

Yeah, whatever, gaijin! The game is on, and the first turn was full of surprises, like all good first turns should…


Pirates of the South China Seas

Our opening strategy for this game revolved around one idea: we need to capture the DEI, the sooner and the less damaged the better.

With this in mind, a surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, though historically correct, and oh so nice because you get to kill several BB in one fell swoop, seemed like a waste of time and resources. In this first week of the war, KB belongs to the South China Sea, and Nagumo has no business listening to ukulele music on the flagship radio as he closes to his objectives.

Manila it was then, and since we were in the area, we could pay Hong Kong a little visit, and take advantage of KB’s presence to land troops closer to Manila.

The Guards Mixed Brigade (freshly bought) and the 21st Division were therefore sent on a surprise attack on Mauban.

The attack on Manila went fine. Three waves of bombers attacked the port, nine submarines and two patrol ships are reported sunk, but the final toll will probably be much higher.

Allied Ships
SS Sculpin, Bomb hits 3, heavy damage
SS Sealion, Bomb hits 3, heavy damage
SS Spearfish, Bomb hits 2
DD Pope, Bomb hits 1, on fire
PG Isabel, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAKL Corregidor, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
SS Salmon, Bomb hits 4, heavy damage
SS Seawolf, Bomb hits 3, heavy damage
SS Pickerel, Bomb hits 1
xAK Si Kiang, Bomb hits 1, on fire
SS Permit, Bomb hits 4, and is sunk
SS Seal, Bomb hits 4, heavy damage
PT Q-111, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
AM Finch, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
PG Tulsa, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
xAK Tantalus, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Peary, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
AVD Childs, Bomb hits 1, on fire
xAKL Compagnia Filipinas, Bomb hits 1
SS Sailfish, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
SS S-38, Bomb hits 2, heavy damage
SS Pike, Bomb hits 1
SS Seadragon, Bomb hits 2
SS Tarpon, Bomb hits 3, heavy damage
PG Asheville, Bomb hits 1, on fire
SS Snapper, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
SS Porpoise, Bomb hits 1, heavy damage
PT Q-113, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
AM Bittern, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
SS Sargo, Bomb hits 1
AM Quail, Bomb hits 1, heavy damage
AV Langley, Bomb hits 1, on fire
TK Gertrude Kellogg, Bomb hits 1, on fire
SS Perch, Bomb hits 1
DD Pillsbury, Bomb hits 1, on fire
SS Sturgeon, Bomb hits 1

Allied Ships
DD John D. Ford, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
SS Seadragon, Bomb hits 2, heavy damage
SS Shark, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
AM Quail, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
SS Swordfish, Bomb hits 1
AV Langley, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
xAP Rochambeau, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
PG Asheville, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Yu Sang, Bomb hits 1
DD Pillsbury, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
SS Sturgeon, Bomb hits 1
SS S-40, Bomb hits 1, heavy damage
AS Otus, Bomb hits 1
SS Skipjack, Bomb hits 1
AO Trinity, Bomb hits 1, on fire
SS Sealion, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
xAK Tantalus, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
xAP Neptuna, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
SS Stingray, Bomb hits 1, heavy damage
SS Tarpon, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
SS S-37, Bomb hits 1, heavy damage
TK Mindanao, Bomb hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
xAKL Sagoland, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
SS Sculpin, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
SS Sargo, Bomb hits 1, heavy damage
SS Perch, Bomb hits 1

Allied Ships
AV Langley, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
AVD Childs, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
TK Gertrude Kellogg, Bomb hits 1, on fire
SS Porpoise, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
SS Pike, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk

Smaller raids damaged five cargoes in Hong Kong and five in Georgetown. Airfields in northern Malaya have been badly damaged, even though bad weather grounded a number of bombers, including our missions over Rangoon, unfortunately. Overall, we lost 4 planes for 17 enemies.

In terms of damage done, this first turn is much less spectacular than your typical raid on Hawaii. We believe the better strategic disposition that results from it is worth the difference.


Warp drive’s broken, Mr Sulu

Not everything went right today, of course. In fact, quite a few things went terribly wrong. The Reluctant Admiral mod, that we are playing, provide Japan with three more “warp TF” in the Home Islands. My understanding was that this allowed us to slightly alter the disposition of forces at start, by simulating ships that would have sailed before the 7th of December.

Here is the use we had decided for those three Merchant Warp TF.

Merchant 1, starting in Tokyo, would transport the Mixed Guard Brigade (bought using the PP we have at start) to Mauban, to reinforce the 21st ID
Merchant 2, starting in Nagasaki would drop the 33rd ID in Bangkok, ready to move to Rangoon
Merchant 3, starting in Osaka, would just convoy a few tankers and transports to Cam Ranh, ready to be used in the East Indies.

All this seemed fine during the tests. In reality, though… Merchant 1 did land in Mauban, but Merchant 2, with the same orders, stayed in port.

As for Merchant 3, it managed to be intercepted by the three DD from Hong Kong. The battle was one sided and the results ugly.

Japanese Ships
TK Akatsuki Maru, Shell hits 9, heavy fires
TK Itukusima Maru, Shell hits 10, heavy fires, heavy damage
TK Nisshin Maru, Shell hits 8, heavy fires, heavy damage
TK Nisshin Maru #2, Shell hits 15, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAP Asama Maru, Shell hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAP Buenos Aires Maru, Shell hits 6, on fire
xAP Huzi Maru, Shell hits 8, heavy fires, heavy damage

Allied Ships
DD Scout
DD Thanet
DD Thracian, Shell hits 1

I have to say I don’t quite understand the rationale of this interception. Since the TF was supposed to arrive in Cam Ranh on that day, it should have been much closer to Indochina and therefore out of reach of the Hong Kong DD. Such a naval battle, off the coast of Luzon, should have happened several days before the seventh… This attack is also difficult to interpret in a historical way: it sort of looks like the Royal Navy provoked the war by attacking a merchant convoy.

There’s a silver lining, of course. This provides us with a theme. In this game, the Japanese will be a peace loving and Francophile people, and all violence and nastiness will henceforth be blamed on the British (and their colonial puppets)

I apologize in advance to any citizen the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, or any of their former minions, that might chance upon this AAR. This anti-British stance is but a literary artifact, meant to provide some flavor to this altogether dull AAR. It has no historical basis whatsoever, nor does it represent the opinions and views of its author…

[John 3rd]

How are things going here?

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: fcharton

I apologize in advance to any citizen the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, or any of their former minions, that might chance upon this AAR. This anti-British stance is but a literary artifact, meant to provide some flavor to this altogether dull AAR. It has no historical basis whatsoever, nor does it represent the opinions and views of its author…

Oh, I really want to make some sort of funny quip about the french and the british and their respective attitudes here. [:D] But alas, I lack the skill to do so.[:(]


Oh well, maybe someone else with more skill can attempt. Just too good of an opening to completely miss! [:D][:D][:D]