Adjusted assault value query

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Miller
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Adjusted assault value query

Post by Miller »


Ground combat at 75,50

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 174518 troops, 1946 guns, 1528 vehicles, Assault Value = 6086

Defending force 85322 troops, 657 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 3004

Japanese adjusted assault: 3294

Allied adjusted defense: 7462

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
13026 casualties reported
Squads: 17 destroyed, 667 disabled
Non Combat: 21 destroyed, 821 disabled
Engineers: 8 destroyed, 227 disabled
Vehicles lost 158 (4 destroyed, 154 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
1880 casualties reported
Squads: 15 destroyed, 324 disabled
Non Combat: 10 destroyed, 380 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 26 disabled


Assaulting units:
38th Division
37th Division
35th Division
32nd Division
3rd Ind. Engineer Regiment
8th Division
16th Division
14th Division
110th Division
18th Division
25th Division
48th Division
26th Division
1st Tank Division
4th Division
36th Division
21st Ind. Engineer Regiment
2nd Tank Division
8th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
1st Medium Field Artillery Regiment
1st Mortar Battalion
3rd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
51st Ind.Mtn.Gun Battalion
52nd Ind.Mtn.Gun Battalion
North China Area Army
2nd Ind. Engineer Regiment
9th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion

Defending units:
99th Chinese Corps
26th Chinese Corps
78th Chinese Corps
2nd Prov Chinese Corps
58th Chinese Corps
49th Chinese Corps
63rd Chinese Corps
50th Chinese Corps
56th Chinese Corps
60th Chinese Corps
20th Chinese Corps
3rd Chinese Cavalry Corps
31st Chinese Corps
3rd New Chinese Corps
52nd Chinese Corps
55th Prov Chinese Division
4th War Area
9th Group Army
7th Artillery Regiment


I am struggling to understand why my adjusted AV is half the original.

All my units are in full supply, 0 disruption 3 fatigue and high exp, 99 morale with the best leaders. The only thing that they are lacking is support, which is slightly below the required amount for each unit. The terrain is wooded rough (x3) bonus for the defender, but I assume that should not penalise the attackers AV.....or does it?
undercovergeek
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RE: Adjusted assault value query

Post by undercovergeek »

looking forward to reply - this happened to me a year back on Pearl as the IJA - no disruption, all supplied, no fatigue - in fact the last comment on the now defunct AAR is a reply to me asking what happened with the resolution and someone saying 'they look forward to finding out because we all need to know!!' or words to that affect.......

im sure therell be some dice roll shenanigans excuse in there and someone will say you need 3x the AV of the defender but id just like to have a reasonable understanding of the ground combat engine to a) avoid this again and b) understand why so that i can take enough troops to capture my objective!!

good luck
herwin
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RE: Adjusted assault value query

Post by herwin »

The ground combat engine is what it is. Sometimes you're the bug and sometimes you're the windshield. Roll with the punch.
Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com
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Miller
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RE: Adjusted assault value query

Post by Miller »

Just counted up, 16 of my best Divs plus support units, yet I would need triple that number to have any chance of forcing a retreat!

Obviously the terrain bonus makes a huge difference to the defender, but even so most of those units will be of much lower exp and morale I would expect. Baffling.........
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Cribtop
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RE: Adjusted assault value query

Post by Cribtop »

PzB once opined in his AAR that it appears bad terrain not only multiplies the defender's adjusted AV, it also divides the attacker's adjusted AV. I don't know that this effect has been tested, but it seems to me to be close to the truth. In one PBEM of mine, roughly equal AS in a wooded hex ended up with my opponent making an attack that came off at 1:7. A bad die roll doesn't explain all that differential, IMHO. I assume you need to bring a big odds number to the party to overcome bad terrain so long as the enemy supply situation is good.
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undercovergeek
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RE: Adjusted assault value query

Post by undercovergeek »

as with the now much more descriptive naval and air resolutions it would be nice to have at least a line in the ops report that says - 'bad dice roll', 'crap commander', 'fatigue and disruption results in.......', 'hey youre Japanese, its just your day today' - anything that could point to it.

As it is, as was i, Miller is left not knowing whether to attack again, dig in for a few days and try again, or pack up everything and get his quarter of a million troops back on the train and go try somewhere else - i love WitP and can even live with the ground engine but this is the main thing that annoys me, not the outcome but not knowing why
undercovergeek
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RE: Adjusted assault value query

Post by undercovergeek »

ORIGINAL: herwin

The ground combat engine is what it is. Sometimes you're the bug and sometimes you're the windshield. Roll with the punch.

its hardly a punch when its the elite core of your ground forces, and quite a large majority of them by the looks of things - its more like a totally wasted strategy, getting there, unpacking and having the fight.

So youre saying just meet in the hex and flip a coin because thats all youll ever get? an unknown resolution based on unknown facts and decisions?
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Canoerebel
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RE: Adjusted assault value query

Post by Canoerebel »

Miller, that's a bit of a puzzler, but I've seen it alot of times.  For some reason, the attacker's adjusted AV isn't what you'd expect early on.  I don't know why, but it seems like a well-entrenched defender usually has some affect on the attacker's AV.
 
But, the results weren't bad considering.  Actual destroyed squads was almost even.  If Japan rests and recovers disruption in good order, you should make steady progress.  The campaign to reduce and take this hex may take you awhile, so the enemy might bring in reinforcements.  But if you can match him, you'll win the battle. 
 
Also, hitting the Chinese with regularly bombings will help your cause immensely.
 
The Chinese can hold in good terrain, but Lord help them when and if they are forced to retreat.  The losses will be horrific.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
beppi
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RE: Adjusted assault value query

Post by beppi »

It is always quite hard to bring down large stacks of defenders. Especially in terrain with a good defensive modifier. In addition how long have the Chinese units been there ? It is quite possible that they already have a fort level of 3 or 4 which in addition modifies the adjusted AVS in Chinese favor. (I do not know a ways to bring open terrain forts down, is that even possible ?) For the attacker most of the time i never got more than 70% adjusted AV. Only if you assault a base, 100% prepped, with corps HQ 100% prepped and Army HQ 100% prepped you can raise your assault value to around 150% of the non adjusted AV. (from my experience, and you need good rolls). In open Hex all the prepping does not help which always leaves the attacker with adjusted AV lower then the original ones.

In general i would say you can bring that stack down and crush it. You have around 15 divisions there and you got 660 disabled squads. If you split your divisions, put them in reserve(no pursuit) you get 45 parts of a division with around 15 disabled squads in each. If you wait 10 to 15 days and just use your in in-depended artillery units to shell the Chinese units you should be able to recover around 6-7 squads for each part of a division. If you recombine them it leaves you with 300 less AV than the current attack. If you in addition use some of bomber assets to hit the Chinese units, just do raise disruption and you do an attack again in around 15 days you should get much better results. Do that 4-5 times and you can kick them out of the hex.

But as i said in general it is a pita to force large stacks of enemy units into an retreat.
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witpqs
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RE: Adjusted assault value query

Post by witpqs »

ORIGINAL: Miller

I am struggling to understand why my adjusted AV is half the original.

All my units are in full supply, 0 disruption 3 fatigue and high exp, 99 morale with the best leaders. The only thing that they are lacking is support, which is slightly below the required amount for each unit. The terrain is wooded rough (x3) bonus for the defender, but I assume that should not penalise the attackers AV.....or does it?

They deliberately keep many of the exact factors and exact formulae secret, and I do think that adds to the experience. Still, yes it makes it hard sometimes to figure out what happened.

The most important thing about adjusted AV is that it comes after lots of firepower is expended. So, maybe the x3 defensive terrain does have an influence on the attacker's adjusted AV - I just don't know. As Beppi points out the defender might well have good fort levels even outside of bases. Good terrain, good forts - the defender's firepower could push down the attacker's AV quite a bit.

That "adjusted AV" is only there to decide on certain things like retreats/surrenders and captures of a base. The casualties AFAIK come from many of the steps in the combat resolution (I'm reading between the lines on that one). Adjusted AV seems to be sort of "what was the ratio of guys (not taking into account disparate firepower) who made it to the enemy trenches versus the enemy guys in the trenches".

There are lots of combats with bad (1 to 2 or even 1 to 3) adjusted AV odds where the attacker took very few casualties and the defender took a bunch. In those cases it is like the attackers were driven back by defensive fire but not hurt badly by it. In this case you took a lot of casualties, so likely it's the terrain plus some good forts (educated guess).

Note well that often there are one or two units that take most of the casualties. You can withdraw those for R&R without losing any offensive punch for subsequent attacks (because they are already hors de combat).

As other posters are saying - aerial bombing, flanking to cut supplies/retreat, and steady pressure. Do watch the casualties, though. The ratio was bad for you because of the engineers and vehicles, although the combat and non-combat ratios were OK.
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Miller
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RE: Adjusted assault value query

Post by Miller »

That was the third or fourth attack over the space of a month with similar results each time. The hex in question is one to the south of a base hex that I am bombing daily with 300+ Army bombers.

I am starting to think that, as Cribtop suggested, the terrain also has a negative effect on the attacking force. I also believe the fact it is a "non-base" hex also helps the defender, no idea why, just a hunch.
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Canoerebel
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RE: Adjusted assault value query

Post by Canoerebel »

It isn't unreasonable.  A big Chinese army in very good defensive terrain had better be able to put up a good fight.  If not, the Chinese are just toast.
 
If that hex is proving really difficult, can you threaten the enemy with envelopment and isolation while at the same time maintaing the presssure there?
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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Miller
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RE: Adjusted assault value query

Post by Miller »

Problem is the lack of roads around the hex, would take forever to try and flank and he would get wind of it long before I could re-position my units.

I'm thinking of just leaving a blocking force and using the bulk of the Divs elsewhere, I have made advances in China so not all bad. It looks like his retreat from the forward Chinese bases was actually a good idea in hindsight.
modrow
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RE: Adjusted assault value query

Post by modrow »

Well... why not load the editor, place the respective sets of units into the respective hex and check variations of the outcome of your attack ? You may, depending on the game date, be facing units with different parameters than at the start of the war, but that, too, can be edited if you see you are completely off. You can also analyze the effect of lacking support etc.

This should at least tell you whether to try again, because all you got was a horrible electronic dice roll, or not.

Just my 2cts

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RE: Adjusted assault value query

Post by herwin »

ORIGINAL: Miller

Just counted up, 16 of my best Divs plus support units, yet I would need triple that number to have any chance of forcing a retreat!

Obviously the terrain bonus makes a huge difference to the defender, but even so most of those units will be of much lower exp and morale I would expect. Baffling.........

Terrain is the most important combat multiplier. Track it!
Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com
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Miller
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RE: Adjusted assault value query

Post by Miller »

ORIGINAL: hartwig.modrow

Well... why not load the editor, place the respective sets of units into the respective hex and check variations of the outcome of your attack ? You may, depending on the game date, be facing units with different parameters than at the start of the war, but that, too, can be edited if you see you are completely off. You can also analyze the effect of lacking support etc.

This should at least tell you whether to try again, because all you got was a horrible electronic dice roll, or not.

Just my 2cts

Hartwig

I'm sorry but life is too short to go to such lengths. Of course dice rolls play a part but over the course of my previous attempts the adjusted AVs were similar (within a few hundreds).
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Miller
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RE: Adjusted assault value query

Post by Miller »

ORIGINAL: herwin

ORIGINAL: Miller

Just counted up, 16 of my best Divs plus support units, yet I would need triple that number to have any chance of forcing a retreat!

Obviously the terrain bonus makes a huge difference to the defender, but even so most of those units will be of much lower exp and morale I would expect. Baffling.........

Terrain is the most important combat multiplier. Track it!

I do not doubt that. Seems a bit silly though that even if I had every single division on the map at that hex I would still be lucky to get a 2:1 result.
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RE: Adjusted assault value query

Post by HansBolter »

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

PzB once opined in his AAR that it appears bad terrain not only multiplies the defender's adjusted AV, it also divides the attacker's adjusted AV.


I can tesitify to this. It has been a consistent experience for me in China against the AI. In many places I have an assault value comparison of 2000 to 500 and I refrain from attacking because the defender is in tripled or quadrupled terrain. I first move to isolate and surround them and then wait several more months before starting any attacks.
Hans

Smeulders
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RE: Adjusted assault value query

Post by Smeulders »

If I'm not mistaken, AV is calculated after the firing. You've lost at least 900 AV (squads + engineers), might even be 1000 AV depending on the number of tanks rolled into vehicles. Your surviving guys will have taken a good deal of disruption and fatigue from this attack, which will go a long way to explain the remaining 2000 AV lost in the final calculation. There might still be other factors in play as well, but I'm not sure what those could be.
The AE-Wiki, help fill it out
Jzanes
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RE: Adjusted assault value query

Post by Jzanes »

i agree with Smeulders. All those disabled troops and tanks are not adding to your AV in the end. Try using bombers on ground attack for a couple weeks while you rest and recover from this deliberate attack. That way, his flak will use up his supply and your bombers will disrupt and disable his squads so they won't do the same to your troops when you attack.
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