Faltering Japanese AI Economy Oct 42

[DD696]

I am playing against the Japanese AI using a modified BigBabes 28 scenario. Many additional ships have been added to the Japanese side from the enhanced Japan and Ironman scenarios along with 2 additional for the allies. I have made available extra oil and resources for the Japanese in order to enhance their economy. I started on 5 Aug using the betas as they came out and have played to 2 Oct 42. I run tracker both for the allied and Japanese sides, using tracker for the Japanese side to monitor vehicle vs armaments production and naval vs merchant production (had to go in and nudge them in the right direction a couple times), and to keep a light eye on the overall economy.

Game wise, starting in July 42 (but possibly earlier - the current tracker databases start on turn 209) the Japanese home islands began having major shortages of resources with declines in HI and LI production. Tokyo alone was short 51,837 for HI and 51,837 for LI on turn 217, for example, as per tracker alerts. Turn 209 resources in Honshu were about 388,000 to a low of 336,000 until the AI took notice and pumped it up to about 900,000 by turn 298, mostly in the later portion of this time period. Fuel went from 952,000 to 216,000 and the AI is having shortages of fuel for the HI in Japan (and elsewhere). There are 94,000 tons in transit to Honshu. Stored HI points are declining, going from 279,000 on 2 Sep to 246,000 on 30 Sept (note the pilot training HI usage is not included here). On 30 Sept there were 3735 HI factories producing, 3340 not producing (due to fuel shortages) and 38 not repairing. Tokyo get the biggest hit with it's 2730 HI factories not producing due to only having 4174 tons of fuel on this date. There are 1,800,000 tons of fuel in Sumatra, mainly in Palembang. There are 57 tankers sitting in ports with their crews harassing the native women (only 10 in Japan) with another 39 in various task forces. Supplies in Honshu vary from 60,000 to 130,000. Oil during this time frame went from 2,400,000 to 2,090,000 for Honshu. Singapore has 235 AK's dawdling away their time sitting in port. There are many task forces set to pick up supply in Donggala (hex 68,99) even though there are no supplies located there. Tokyo appears to be used as the central convoy hub.

I began noticing the decline of HI production but never took a close look to see what was happening until today. I don't know if the AI will rectify the fuel shortages as it has the resource shortages, but if it doesn't the Japanese economy will be in for tough times. These fuel shortages have been occurring in increasing frequency and effect for at least the past 3 months of game time. I'm nowhere near an expert on the Japanese economy, but it is a tad alarming to see it having these shortages so early in the game and this is the first I've seen it in an AE game.

Should I be concerned about the hiccuping Japanese economy?

Save attached.

[n01487477]

ORIGINAL: DD696

I am playing against the Japanese AI using a modified BigBabes 28 scenario. Many additional ships have been added to the Japanese side from the enhanced Japan and Ironman scenarios along with 2 additional for the allies. I have made available extra oil and resources for the Japanese in order to enhance their economy. I started on 5 Aug using the betas as they came out and have played to 2 Oct 42. I run tracker both for the allied and Japanese sides, using tracker for the Japanese side to monitor vehicle vs armaments production and naval vs merchant production (had to go in and nudge them in the right direction a couple times), and to keep a light eye on the overall economy.

Game wise, starting in July 42 (but possibly earlier - the current tracker databases start on turn 209) the Japanese home islands began having major shortages of resources with declines in HI and LI production. Tokyo alone was short 51,837 for HI and 51,837 for LI on turn 217, for example, as per tracker alerts. Turn 209 resources in Honshu were about 388,000 to a low of 336,000 until the AI took notice and pumped it up to about 900,000 by turn 298, mostly in the later portion of this time period. Fuel went from 952,000 to 216,000 and the AI is having shortages of fuel for the HI in Japan (and elsewhere). There are 94,000 tons in transit to Honshu. Stored HI points are declining, going from 279,000 on 2 Sep to 246,000 on 30 Sept (note the pilot training HI usage is not included here). On 30 Sept there were 3735 HI factories producing, 3340 not producing (due to fuel shortages) and 38 not repairing. Tokyo get the biggest hit with it's 2730 HI factories not producing due to only having 4174 tons of fuel on this date. There are 1,800,000 tons of fuel in Sumatra, mainly in Palembang. There are 57 tankers sitting in ports with their crews harassing the native women (only 10 in Japan) with another 39 in various task forces. Supplies in Honshu vary from 60,000 to 130,000. Oil during this time frame went from 2,400,000 to 2,090,000 for Honshu. Singapore has 235 AK's dawdling away their time sitting in port. There are many task forces set to pick up supply in Donggala (hex 68,99) even though there are no supplies located there. Tokyo appears to be used as the central convoy hub.

I began noticing the decline of HI production but never took a close look to see what was happening until today. I don't know if the AI will rectify the fuel shortages as it has the resource shortages, but if it doesn't the Japanese economy will be in for tough times. These fuel shortages have been occurring in increasing frequency and effect for at least the past 3 months of game time. I'm nowhere near an expert on the Japanese economy, but it is a tad alarming to see it having these shortages so early in the game and this is the first I've seen it in an AE game.

Should I be concerned about the hiccuping Japanese economy?

Save attached.

Unfortunately your zip file is corrupted so I can't have a great look at it. But I was testing the AI economy recently and have come to similar conclusions as yourself. Although the AI doesn't play have the same constraints as a human player there are things that I would like to bring up with the AE-team when I have some firm numbers to throw their way.
I think if a few Allied V AI players come forward with their savefiles maybe a better picture could develop.
Hell I've not even tested enough yet to see if the AI actually does need HI to produce things...

Will get back to this thread in coming days-weeks.

Cheers for starting,

[Numdydar]

You need to use the beta's as the auto convoy system is broken for Japan in the last official patch. The AC system has been fixed in the latest patches. Here is an entire thread on the topic [:)] that discusses this in great detail.

tm.asp?m=2898475

[n01487477]

ORIGINAL: Numdydar

You need to use the beta's as the auto convoy system is broken for Japan in the last official patch. The AC system has been fixed in the latest patches. Here is an entire thread on the topic [:)] that discusses this in great detail.

tm.asp?m=2898475

Yeah Michael has done some great work, but that thread does not go into any post-test analysis to see if the system can't be made better. I hardly ever accept all that I read without doing some testing.

[DD696]

Numdydar - please read my initial post: I update to the latest betas as they come out and am aware of the latest auto convoy fix. That fix, however, does not "fix" months and months of previously played turns and to me it appeared that the Japanese AI economy had been seriously damaged.

n0148477 - Sorry it was corrupted. I am restarting as that game obviously had a major glitch with it, but I do have saves for every game turn which I keep for tracker use and have kept them in a saved copy of the tracker files. I'll keep them for while. I went back and reloaded tracker with the April-June 42 saves and found that the Japanese economy had been burping throughout that period also. This time I will be keeping a closer eye on the J economy and hoping that the fix recently made has repaired the problem I noted. I don't log in or post often anymore, but I am here daily in a "guest" status (part of the silent majority). If you would like additional info, let me know.

[Numdydar]

Well if you are using the p8 beta or higher (iirc) then Japan should be doing better with it's economy going forward. Whether they can do well enough to recover or not is likely doubtful. You could just pull back your forces and let the game run for several months with no sub or offensive operations to give the AI a chance to recover. Otherwise, you may have to bite the bullet and just start over as painful as that migh be.

[n01487477]

ORIGINAL: DD696
n0148477 - Sorry it was corrupted. I am restarting as that game obviously had a major glitch with it, but I do have saves for every game turn which I keep for tracker use and have kept them in a saved copy of the tracker files. I'll keep them for while. I went back and reloaded tracker with the April-June 42 saves and found that the Japanese economy had been burping throughout that period also. This time I will be keeping a closer eye on the J economy and hoping that the fix recently made has repaired the problem I noted. I don't log in or post often anymore, but I am here daily in a "guest" status (part of the silent majority). If you would like additional info, let me know.

No worries - please keep us informed. The real issue for me is how the AI economy works and I'm yet to discover that fully; whether it needs the res etc and whether that stops it producing. Starting a new test with Scen1 q4 beta - it doesn't look good so far with the drop in all vital stocks.

Running turns take a long time and I'm not changing anything ...

[DD696]

I have made numerous restarts of the game using beta ll08q4 and a couple different scenarios, and am encountering a new problem with the Japanese AI economy. Playing head to head or as the Japanese, the heavy industry points do appear to be accumulating correctly adding in about 2200 points for the first turn of the game using scenario 1. However, if you play as the allies in scenario 1 (or if I use my own scenario) and use tracker to check the Japanese economy, heavy industry points are accumulated each turn with approximately 16,907 per turn being added to the HI point pool for the Japanese. This accumulation went on until I stopped on 26 Dec 41. At that point I changed to a head to head game and checked the Japanese industry screen, and it showed the HI accumulation as per what tracker was saying.

This new problem has occurred within the last couple betas. Easily reproduced. Run the first turn as allies against the AI then run tracker as the Japanese and check the industry screens.

EDIT: Went back and ran first turn with each of the betas going back to q1, and always had x HI added to the pool on the first turn of scenario 1, so I am completely puzzled by this. I had thought that if x Hi points were produced, and then a good number were used up in production, that a number less than x would be added to the HI pool, but I must be mistaken in my math.

[Numdydar]

Why is that an issue? imho it is a good thing for the Japan AI to get 'bonus' points HI as the AI will no way be as efficient as a human. This will help the AI be stronger against the Allies.

[n01487477]

ORIGINAL: Numdydar

Why is that an issue? imho it is a good thing for the Japan AI to get 'bonus' points HI as the AI will no way be as efficient as a human. This will help the AI be stronger against the Allies.

Yeah which makes this testing - mute. AI V AI that is ... I don't really want to play Allied V AI for 200+ turns.

[DD696]

n01487477 - It appears that your testing confirms what I was experiencing in the game I first talked about. The Japanese AI is not transporting the required materials to the required places. Your J material shortages aren't quite as severe as what I experienced, but your test definitely shows the pattern. You didn't show the HI accumulation but would assume that it was declining just as mine was. Thank's for checking it out. I am glad someone takes a bit of an interest in what I found occurring.

I am still puzzled about the vast HI accumulation in a new game, so am going back to the old game from my first post here and restarting on 1 Jan 42. I'll keep a closer eye on it. With normal play (and assuming I can get my enthusiasm back - it has taken a bit of a hit lately) it won't take long to tell if the convoy fix made in the beta will alleviate the problem for the J economy.

Numdydar - Simply accumulating HI points at the rate of x per turn is a bad idea. What would be the point of trying to deny resources and industries to Japan if it has no actual effect on the game?

[DD696]

Now I realize that I was schooled in the old math, not today's new math, so can anybody explain why, after running 5 turns of the above mentioned AI game using the latest beta, that on 5 Jan 42 the Japanese would have 7,045 HI factories producing 14,090 points. From this 10,222 points are used leaving 3,768 to accumulate into the HI carry over. That is all OK so far. However, and this is the problem, x points are added to the HI accumulation. On the 4th a surplus of x. On the 3rd a surplus of x.

How can this be happening? Is this some kind of "fix" to an AI problem? After fours years of war the Japanese AI would have in the neighborhood of x HI points stored up.

AI players, you might want to check out what is happening in your games.

Edit: Just imagine the fury should this be happening in a PBEM game.....

[Andy Mac]

Note to self: Disable ability to switch sides or peek at AI side in any future game.

[DD696]

Good answer. Thank you.

ORIGINAL: Andy Mac

Note to self: Disable ability to switch sides or peek at AI side in any future game.

[Numdydar]

ORIGINAL: DD696

Now I realize that I was schooled in the old math, not today's new math, so can anybody explain why, after running 5 turns of the above mentioned AI game using the latest beta, that on 5 Jan 42 the Japanese would have 7,045 HI factories producing 14,090 points. From this 10,222 points are used leaving 3,768 to accumulate into the HI carry over. That is all OK so far. However, and this is the problem, 18,370 points are added to the HI accumulation. On the 4th a surplus of 18,448. On the 3rd a surplus of 13,218.

How can this be happening? Is this some kind of "fix" to an AI problem? After fours years of war the Japanese AI would have in the neighborhood of 26,800,000 HI points stored up.

AI players, you might want to check out what is happening in your games.

Edit: Just imagine the fury should this be happening in a PBEM game.....

First off I am Japan in a PBEM game and can attest that this is NOT happening. I am also playing as Japan versus the Allied AI and this is NOT happening. Of course I am using the latest betas too (q2 for both). The PBEM is Scen 2 and versus the AI is Scen 1 for complete disclosue.

However, if the numbers above are accurate, then something is wrong, but I can assure you if this is happening, it is NOT happening when a human is playing Japan.

[DD696]

Of course my numbers aren't correct. After all, I am only an AI player. Of course, I only "think" I am using the latest q4 beta - and as I have stated, I use the latest betas AS THEY COME OUT (or so I "think"). Obviously I am incapable of reading the charts tracker provides.

Start up an AI game as the allies and run tracker for the Japanese side to verify the Japanese economy, and tell me what your results are. A few turns should be sufficient. You wouldn't even have to input any orders - just hit "end turn".

There is no economy for the AI to manage when playing as Japan against the allies and therefore I would not expect it to be happening or else there would have been considerable squawking before now, so I fully accept your assurance that it does not happen when playing as Japan.

Sorry for being a bit grouchy, but it has been a long, dismal struggle to find anyone willing to stand up for the AI player since WitP was first released going on 6-7 years now.

[Andy Mac]

I gave up on standing up for the AI players after the crap I took over what I considered (and still consider) to be the essential AI crutches were removed from historic difficulty.

I wrote most of the AI scripts and spent a long time on them and on testing the AI - pretty much all of the last year on this project was spent on the AI - if you dont like the AI economy on historic dont blame me it worked but then the whingers got at it and made the team take out AI crutches so now I never recommend anyone play on Historic because its a neutered setting as far as I am concerned hence my comment about stopping people peeking at the AI side of the fence as it spoils the immersion.

Andy

[n01487477]

ORIGINAL: Andy Mac

I gave up on standing up for the AI players after the crap I took over what I considered (and still consider) to be the essential AI crutches were removed from historic difficulty.

I wrote most of the AI scripts and spent a long time on them and on testing the AI - pretty much all of the last year on this project was spent on the AI - if you dont like the AI economy on historic dont blame me it worked but then the whingers got at it and made the team take out AI crutches so now I never recommend anyone play on Historic because its a neutered setting as far as I am concerned hence my comment about stopping people peeking at the AI side of the fence as it spoils the immersion.

Andy

That's not what I'm doing here Andy. I'm with you on this and didn't want the crutches removed in the first place. But now they are ...

I'm doing this from a purely "does it continue to work" perspective. I just wanted to make sure that the economy can actually run deeper into the war. I have no problem with the AI per-se or the AI cheating, etc ... blah blah blah. But what is important is that the AI at least tries to use it's fleet to distribute 'resources' (given the last beta),& that the economy doesn't fall over mid-42 etc.

I don't play V the AI - you know I program Tracker and this is just one of those area's where I was interested how it worked and whether it worked well enough. Given that you've removed the crutches, I think not so much anymore.

Cheers

[janh]

ORIGINAL: Andy Mac

I gave up on standing up for the AI players after the crap I took over what I considered (and still consider) to be the essential AI crutches were removed from historic difficulty.

Andy

Andy, what has been removed from historic difficulty? I must have missed this part when it happened.

[gradenko2k]

I remember a reply Nikademus gave me when I inquired about difficulty levels sometime maybe March this year:

Very Hard means the AI gets 'combat bonuses', and is always considered to be in supply
Hard means the AI plays by normal combat rules, but is always considered to be in supply
Historic means the AI plays by both the combat and the supply rules
Easy means the player gets 'combat bonuses', and the AI plays by the supply rules

Of course, we also know at this point that the AI, when playing Japan (only?) also gets an unlimited amount of planes in the pool regardless of the difficulty level.

For what it's worth, I for one do not mind giving the AI whatever bonuses or advantages it needs, given the task ahead of it.