Could I call this a "Not Bad" opening?

[luciffer_MatrixForum]

41-45 GC my first PBEM as soviet ver1.04.36
I think I need some advices or... kind of encouragement, because most of AARs are from Axis's viewpoint.

This is turn 4, before I move
northen front
most of AGN's troops are around Puskov, and He borrowed one Panzer corps from AGC, no sign of HQ-builtup
Next turn, I think he could get past luga river at most?

[luciffer_MatrixForum]

In the center, it seems his armors are concentrate around Mogilev
maybe one Panzer corps get HQ-builtup

[luciffer_MatrixForum]

most of AGS are around Proskurov, and maybe one Panzer corps HQ-builtup too
should I try to retrieve the pocket again? or run away?

[Aussiematto]

As an inveterate (and probably not very good) Axis player, I'd say you should run away to the Dnepr in the south, but leave a checkerboard to slow down the axis. That pocket is gone.

Centre looks ok - but the north is a bad case -- you are going to lose Leningrad.

[luciffer_MatrixForum]

Why Leningrad is in danger?
I thought I can keep it safe at least two turns

thx

[heliodorus04]

I think you're Leningrad defense is basically sound.  You MUST start digging in at the proper places around L-grad (the hex that is adjacent to Ladoga and the Neva; the port west of Ladoga, along the Volkhov, and around the rail hex that enters L-grad from the SE).

Center looks sound.

South you are in great danger of a good panzer sweep taking vast chunks of land and possibly isolating units west of the Dnepr.  There, I see a lot of danger.

[luciffer_MatrixForum]

Oh well
then I should set a checkboard in the south
but I don't have enough force to built defence around neva and volkhov, maybe next turn, I think.

[stone10]

How did you know if your opponent did HQ-buildup or not?

[luciffer_MatrixForum]

by guess
some panzers' fuel are not "red"

[Aussiematto]

I agree -- Leningrad not in danger immediately, but assuming the Axis wants it, I would see it fall around T8 or 9. I've regularly taken L against stronger defences in T10. 

[BletchleyGeek]

I see two problems on the Leningrad front. First, you don't have much stuff fortifying the immediate approaches to the city (hexes just south of the Neva river), nor the "backdoor" (the light woods hex just northwest of Schlisselbürg). Second, current German axis of advance menaces to push your troops away to the east. I would shift my weight there to cover the Luga river, so you can gain some time and fortify the locations I mentioned.

See this thread in the War Room, the discussion there is a bit inconclusive but will get you on the right track: tm.asp?m=2877333

In the south you need badly to fall back towards Cherkassy and Krivoi Rog. The 1. PzGruppe is massed and it's very possible that these guys will go directly after Cherkassy, probably crossing the Dnepr in two turns.

[luciffer_MatrixForum]

Oh, about 1stPzGroups, they struggled to relieve their comrades this turn(Axis turn 4, I mean)
Could they be able to thrust next turn?

this is a screenshot from turn 3

[luciffer_MatrixForum]

I have studied hooper's thread, He use northwest front to guard luga line and northern front to guard leningrad itself, right? but in his thread, Axis drove past south of ilmen easily, which is lightly defended. Is that safe enough?

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: luciffer
I have studied hooper's thread, He use northwest front to guard luga line and northern front to guard leningrad itself, right? but in his thread, Axis drove past south of ilmen easily, which is lightly defended. Is that safe enough?

Your opponent will choose the route that seems the easier. Hooper perhaps overcommitted in the defense of the Luga, leaving open the indirect approach through Staraya Russa. In your game, I see that you have a very strong defense along the Staraya Russa - Demyansk axis, and an almost equivalent force - though a bit disorganized - covering the direct route to Leningrad. I think your opponent will go for the direct route: it's what seems "easier".

The above assumes your opponent won't choose to do some feint, so you shift your forces accordingly. To avoid dancing to the tune of your opponent, you need to keep reserves along the Volkhov River and west of Vishny Volochek, while keeping a reasonable force covering both the Luga and the southern shore of Lake Ilmen. As soon as you see where he's taking his panzers, you'll known what's the real thing.

However don't overcommit to Leningrad. I think that the - historical - reasons for the city to hold, had more to do with faulty appraisal of the situation by the German High Command than otherwise. I certainly need to read more about AGN 1941 campaign, though.

[luciffer_MatrixForum]

crap...

[luciffer_MatrixForum]

worse in the center