Calulating attack odds (or knowing when an attack will succeed and when it won't)No Pelton

[Harrybanana]

I'm a noob and one thing I am having difficulty figuring out as the Russians is what sort of force you need to attack those exploiting German panzer divisions to give them a bloody nose. I realize I'm probably going to need to do a deliberate assault and preferably not attack across a river, but some of the attacks I've seen performed by the experienced players I would have been too timid to attempt myself. For example, in his recent AAR Tarhunnas used 4 infantry divisions (each of which I believe only had CV of 1) to successfully attack a Pz Division which, even after being forced to retreat in the battle, had a defensive CV of 11. The Germans even had some air units flying in support while the Russians did not. I assume before he even made the attack Tarhunnas had a pretty good idea it would work; my question is how did he know? I hope the answer is not as simple as the only way to learn is through experience and making mistakes, as I'm making a lot of those already.



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[Flaviusx]

The key is to not pay much attention to on map CVs. Raw unit strengths, command and control, and leadership are far more important. Also, the terrain the defender is in and state of fortification. You can also expect the panzer spearheads to be in a highly fatigued condition after a couple of turns of operations without rest.

[Pawlock]

My rule of thumb I like to have double the defensive CV even though you only need 1:1 final result to get a retreat. Of course having good local commanders helps big time . Perhaps Im too cautious for some , but a failed attack as soviets results in horrific casualties.

[Harrybanana]

I'm such a coward that I usually like to have 3 to 1 odds. But in this case the Russians only had 1 to 2 odds at best and probably only 1 to 3. I doubt this early in the war the Russians had better leadership, but I suppose that is possible.

[Mehring]

It's a mystery. I see mediocre commanders attacking forts at low odds and winning while elsewhere my best commanders with loads of arty and sappers struggle to push the Germans back at 3:1 odds and take terrible losses when they're held.

You have to hope it's not bugged but even if it is, it's a whole lot better than adding up the CVs and looking at the results for those odds to see if it's worth attacking.

[Tarhunnas]

ORIGINAL: Harrybanana

I'm a noob and one thing I am having difficulty figuring out as the Russians is what sort of force you need to attack those exploiting German panzer divisions to give them a bloody nose. I realize I'm probably going to need to do a deliberate assault and preferably not attack across a river, but some of the attacks I've seen performed by the experienced players I would have been too timid to attempt myself. For example, in his recent AAR Tarhunnas used 4 infantry divisions (each of which I believe only had CV of 1) to successfully attack a Pz Division which, even after being forced to retreat in the battle, had a defensive CV of 11. The Germans even had some air units flying in support while the Russians did not. I assume before he even made the attack Tarhunnas had a pretty good idea it would work; my question is how did he know? I hope the answer is not as simple as the only way to learn is through experience and making mistakes, as I'm making a lot of those already.

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The combat values shown as the combat is in progress (and thus in the screenshot) are not the same as the ones shown before the battle. When I consider counterattacks as the Soviets in 1941, I have a rule of thumb that if I can get about 1.5 to 1 in displayed CV strength in a deliberate attack, it's fix bayonets and "Urrah, za Stalina!". For a hasty attack it would be about 3 or 4 to one. I have about two thirds success rate using that guideline, but some Soviet attacks are failures, and I tend not to show those in the AAR [8D]. Even some cases where I retreat the Germans will give the Soviets twice the casualties, but I say it's still worth it to bloody the nose of one of the panzers.

Anyway, those are my rules of thumb when to attack, hope it helps.

[arras]

Giving that most of your soldiers are going to perish in encirclements without fight, risk of large looses in attack looks not that terrible. Even if Germans held, your looses gone be probably lighter than in rout which will happen to the same unit during German turn.

You will sustain looses, if you attack or not. But if you manage to retreat those panzers you will inflict more damage on him than in five defensive battles which you gone loose anyway. If you can retreat him 1 out of 3 times like Tarhunnas, than it is well worth it. You can wear those panzers down after some time.

Of course it make sense only if opponent is using them very aggressively ...means depend on how much dangerous they are.

[Harrybanana]

Thank you everyone, your prompt responses were very helpful and very much appreciated.