Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for the heads-up, Bullwinkle (and for the information about the rule, other gents).  I dealt with that rule in my WitP games.  I'd say there's a decent chance it will come into play in this game.  I suppose this might be as good a time as any to describe the Allied end-game plan, which has been in place since early 1942.
 
The main thrust by the Allies was (and is) to be across the northern reaches of the DEI included Sorong and Morotai (now taken), Talaud Island (operation underway), Manado, and then some of the good bases around NE Borneo, Mindanao, and the islands in between.
 
From there, the Allies intend to leap across the South China Sea to either or both Vietnam and southeastern coastal China.  While, at the same time, the Allies will look for opportunities around Luzon and the middle Philippines, the real effort to take and build up big strategic bases in proximity to Japan will be along coastal China.  In part this is "retribution" for the fanny whipping administered in China; in part it is because I think Miller won't be expecting it - he'll have Luzon and Formosa set up as fortresses, but I'm wagering coastal China will be lightly held; and in part it serves the purpose of severing the Japanese Home Islands from the DEI.
 
To dovetail with this plan, the British, Indians and Chinese troops in SEAC will be moving primarily east from Rangoon/Pegu (toward Vietnam) rather than south (toward Singapore).

[Canoerebel]

12/05/43 and 12/06/43
 
The sudden and complete collapse of the Japanese positions at Pegu and Rangoon presents opportunties in SEAC and has the Allies thinking long-term to coordinate all forces and vectors of attack.  Japan remains very strong and will strike again effectively (there is no doubt about that), but developments over the past six weeks have really altered the course of the game.

SEAC:  The roughly 1000 AV Japanese army succeeded in withdrawing from Rangoon to Allied-held Pegu.  The Allied army there is 1250 AV (I was able to halt the units that were in the process of leaving).  Furthermore, another 1000+ Allied AV should move from Rangoon to Pegu in just a few days.  So what happens to this Japanese army now?  It doesn't have a port or airfield to evacuate or re-supply.  And I don't think it can leave the hex unless it first takes it or unless it is defeated in battle.  If that's true, I will try to surround the hex to eliminate every retreat option.  The Japanese have brought aircraft back to theater - they are based at Moulmein.  Ships are there too.  The Allies will move the BC Repulse TF from Akyab to Rangoon and the Allied air force will begin working on the Japanese.  The situation is very fluid here and I'm not quite sure what's going to happen.

China:  For the first time in months (since Miller called off offensive operations in China), the Allies are considering going on the offensive.  First, I think the fall of Rangoon may reopen the Burma Road to China?  If so, the flow of supplies could allow the Chinese army to rebuild.  The army is already fairly large and have begun prepping for an offensive aimed at driving east toward the coast.  Three Chinese armies are prepping for Hengyang, K_____?, and Kanhsien.  The first is held by just three Japanese units with a fourth nearby.  I have no idea what I might face at the second and third, but the Chinese armies will be very large.  If successful, this offensive would place the Chinese in a position to offer reconaissance and some LRCAP when the Western Allies move toward the Chinese coast sometime next year.  This offensive won't kick off for several months or more - I don't want to arouse Japanese attention to the Chinese coast.  Smaller Chinese armies are prepping for Liuchow to the south and Sian to the north.  The latter may get underway in early '44 in order to draw Japanese attention to the interior of northern China.

DEI:  The troops destined for Talaud Island are still loading at Darwin.  D-Day is probably six or seven days away, to be preceeded by para assault a day earlier.  The Allies will briefly recon Talaud tomorrow to see if it is occupied (and, if so, the operation could be postponed).  The Allies just landed at Maumere and Lombolen (west of Timor) and found them vacant.  These can be built into large airbases that will assist in the eventual moves on Kendari and Makassar.  They also pose threats to Soerabaja.

Damaged Capital Ships:  The big BB/CV TF of ships damaged in the Battle of Morotai arrived at Pago Pago in good shape and will next hop to Christmas Island.  Barring an encounter with subs, they should make Alameda and San Francisco in about two weeks.

Japanese Ire:  Since the Japanese carriers returned to Baolabob two weeks ago the Japanese have been quiet and have been absorbing a series of big blows.  The Japanese are mad as hornets and remain very strong.  I expect Miller to organize a carrier strike.  With two day turns he can hit unexpectedly and deliver a big blow.  The most likely targets would be the shipping lanes between New Guinea and Townsville or the edges of the DEI (either around Sorong or Lautem would be my guess).   I can't shut down all my shipping indefenately, but I am trying to keep the combat ships at ports with decent CAP, and transports in small and scattered TFs.

[Q-Ball]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

No HR regarding the RTA.  One division is in Rangoon.

I don't have any permanent restricted troops in Burma (I'm not even sure what a permanent restricted unit is?).  I've paid political points for all of the restricted Indian and Chinese units that I'm using in theater.

I'm going to use the Chinese that I have on hand.  It's not much - perhaps six divisions that can be built up to something like 220 AV each.  Miller destroyed China utilizing the dratted massed artillery and strategic bombing techniques, so these Chinese units (and Chiang) are so pissed off that they've agreed to serve under British and American command anywhere in SE Asia.  (I think that's pretty plausible given the way the game developed).

If you paid PPS for every unit in Burma, and changed to non-restricted command, then you are using the Historical Chinese units anyway, like 200th Division and friends.

Miller messed up, but good players make you pay for mess-ups, and you are making him pay....

He can still evacuate fragments from Pegu via flying boat. In fact, the Japanese can build Flying Boat transports for this specific purpose (the Mavis and Emily transports).

[AcePylut]

2 Questions:  At Pegu, does Miller control the hexside heading across the river opposite of Rangoon?  If so, would that allow his army to escape?

[witpqs]

Based on experience with some units of mine trapped in China, he can only retreat across a hex side that he owns. AFAIK you do not have to have troops in all the surrounding hexes.

Based on the importance of the situation, you might want to confirm with cap-and-gown that he did not have all 6 hexes surrounding my troops occupied - only the hexes toward which I owned the hex sides.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: AcePylut
2 Questions:  At Pegu, does Miller control the hexside heading across the river opposite of Rangoon?  If so, would that allow his army to escape?

I think he may control that hexside. His army formerly at Pegu retreated across that hexside when it was defeated in battle. At that point the Allies were the only units in the Pegu hex. Then the Japanese army in Rangoon arrived at Pegu. But the retreated IJA army is across the river (in the hex between Pegu and Moulmein).

That's confusing!

I have no idea what will happen. I didn't want to attack for fear that doing so might defeat the IJA force and thus allow it to retreat. But if the hexside permits it to retreat then perhaps I should attack to rough up the army.

[ny59giants]

Check out hexside control by using the "P" key to turn off hexside details. then, use the "W" key to see who controls a particualr hexside. If it is red between Pegu and the SE towards Moulmein, then he can escape.

[witpqs]

In addition to using the preferences screen, the F6 key directly toggles hex side details on and off.

That w key is now essential to land combat!

[crsutton]

Yes, ny59giants is on the money. He can only retreat over a red hexside. Once you have all hexsides green, he cannot retreat and can take no supply. You need not surround him. Only have small units cross into the hex to turn the red hexside green.
 
This is a great trick for armored units in clear terrain. Let the enemy advance into your hex, he will only have one red hexside. Then you follow him into your hex via that same hex with one fast unit. (can be anything even reece) turning the hex back to green. The enemy is totally cut off and dead meat unless he has follow up units that can enter the hex after you and turn a hexside green.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for the help, gents.

Here's a map of the situation in Burma. I toggled the W key and the hexside in question was green (or possibly green on the Pegu side and red on the side of the adjacent hex; it was hard to tell, but the Pegu side was definately green).

[Canoerebel]

Here's a closeup with hexside control on:

[stldiver]

Concerning the Pegu hex, the green on the allied side to the SE mean you can advance that way, you own the hex, but he cannot retreat that way. The only direction he can move is west back to Rangoon. If you move from Rangoon east into Pegu he will have no retreat route.

The red on the SE towards the Japanese means he can march back into that hex from the SE, if he does that it will turn all red and his units will have a retreat route to the SE.

Good Luck in taking out the stack.

That is the way it worked for me. If your in the hex first, any units advancing into the hex can only advance out the way they came in.

[Canoerebel]

12/07/43 and 12/08/43
 
I think I finally understand the hexsides - thanks, gents. 
 
Burma:  It appears that the Japanese army at Pegu (late of Rangoon) is cutoff with now way to retreat other than a desperate attemt by Miller to send troops from the south to enter the hex and reopen the road.  Miller's units bombarded this turn - a telling indication that he can't move them.  The Allies may well be able to destroy this army.  Meanwhile, the BC Repulse TF ripped an AKL TF at Moulmein, sinking better than a dozen ships.  LBA from Rangoon damaged some five or six.  Miller's remaining tight-lipped, but I think this situation is a terrible nightmare for him.
 
DEI:  A massive air battle over Ternate resulted in about 1:1 losses for each side -total a-2-a losses over two days were 100 Allies, 88 Japanese (this included the smaller air battles over Moulmein).  That's pretty good compared to previous results.  I'll keep it up a few more turns to see if I can get the better of the Japanese.  If not, though, I'll have to stand down for awhile.  The Allies took Lomblen and Maumere.  Talaud Island is garrisoned by one unit 2K strong.  I am proceeding with the invasion - D-Day perhaps five days away (I ordered the transports  - currently at Darwin - to cease loading supplies and move out).

[Canoerebel]

My opponent just sent this email, a clever attempt at misinformation:

"The shock attack on Pegu this turn was an oversight on my part, I dont want you to think I would be clueless enough to think it would succeed......."

I think what he actually did was send one of the units from the hex across the river back into Pegu in an effort to reopen the hexside so that his army can escape.  I don't have the turn file yet, so I can't check the hexside color to see if it worked, but assuming that it did, what should I do now?

If the hexside is open so that his army can retreat, I don't think I can freeze him in place by attacking.  I probably have two options:  set my units to move across the river too (but if I do that, we'll both end up in that next hex, and then he can move out of that hex into Moulmein, so I don't think I accomplish anything).  The other option is to shock attack now (in the Pegu hex) and try to devastate his army while it's in in "move" mode.

Any advice? 

[Smeulders]

If he has sent units over the river to open up a path for his encircled forces, than that hex side is now closed for you. The only option is to either let him retreat or attack and force him to retreat while taking heavy casualties.

[Q-Ball]

You're right, that's probably what happened: A unit advancing INTO Pegu to open the retreat route. In which case, those units will escape. Nothing you can do about it, as you are not in a position to re-establish the block.

I would shock attack and blow them up as they withdraw, at least they will be ridiculously shattered, and easy to roll toward the Thai frontier.

I've had escapes against me like that, it's pretty tough to completely surround units in AE.

A victory anyway.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Smeulders.
 
Darn, his army is getting away!  If only I had let my troops advance into that hex a few days ago (you'll recall I halted them to make sure I could hold Pegu against the cut-off Japanese army).  So I goofed, but I did so trying my best, so what the heck. 
 
Anyhow, I'll try a shock attack next turn, but the enemy has flown the coop. Drat!

[beppi]

As for Supply in China, if the road way to china is open, dump a load of supplies to ragoon and they will move to china itself. If you count it a gamey move dont drop too much because you can move a real lot of supplies to china this way.

But basicaly supply problems in china will be gone.

[paullus99]

If you hit them on the way out, I don't think they will be in any shape for further resistance for quite some time to come. You've won a pretty big victory - the only question is when do you consolidate vs. push forward.

[beppi]

A tactic which i used against my brother is, chase him with every unit you can spare (reserve + chase or so is the mode) even if it would not be enough to force another retreat. if you chase him you gain 20 miles or so already moved. Then set your entire army with which you want to follow him to move (not combat). When your first units arrive in the next hex, do a deliberate to force his units from move mode to combat mode. You cant force all of them but some of them. So your main army is faster in the next hex than his retreated army can leave and you can force a retreat again.
This works quite nice alonge the coast se of Pegu as it is road an the pushes can be in very short duration and the defender has almost no chance for recovery.

(This depends on how much fresh AV are in the Hex SE)