Shattered Vow

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Chickenboy
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RE: Breaking News - No Sub Attacks!

Post by Chickenboy »

ORIGINAL: Rob Brennan UK

Nice AAR .. just caught up on a good read, Thank you for taking the time to post one.

RE :-
The KB remains posted near Flores Island, conducting airfield suppression raids against bases that I'm not even using. What is Miller thinking?

Maybe he's trying to finish off the last of the 'hobbits' Homo floriensis <sp> [:D]
Hey, where is Captain Mandrake anyways? Haven't heard from him in a while...[:(]
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Cuttlefish
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RE: Breaking News - No Sub Attacks!

Post by Cuttlefish »

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Hey, where is Captain Mandrake anyways? Haven't heard from him in a while...[:(]

He's around. Mostly he's busy cleaning my clock in the "From Here...Well, it Feels Like Eternity" game.

I am enjoying this AAR, Canoerebel. Good luck!
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Canoerebel
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Here come the Rebels (maybe)!

Post by Canoerebel »

After two days off, I returned to the game and decided to pull the trigger.&nbsp; The Allied carriers will advance to within four hexes of Soerabaja (if I correctly interpreted speed) on April 18 in search of targets.&nbsp; I don't know what I'll find:
&nbsp;
1.&nbsp; During the preceding two-day turn it appeared that the KB moved close to Soerabaja on the 16th.&nbsp; Despite plentiful LBA patrol aircraft at Malang I lost sight of the KB on the 16th and there was no sight of the Jap carriers when I got the turn file for the 17th.&nbsp; I *think* the KB is at Soerabaja.&nbsp; If not there I believe Miller has already moved them toward some distant point to support his next operations.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
2.&nbsp; If the KB *is* there I hope:&nbsp; (a) that CAP will be halfed since it's in a base hex, and (2) that there won't be any LBA in the hex (the force that took Soerabaja a few days ago didn't include a base force).&nbsp; If I'm wrong about LBA&nbsp;I'm in big trouble.
&nbsp;
3.&nbsp; If the KB left the area or leaves at the start of this turn there are abundant other ships at Soerabaja - lots of transports.
&nbsp;
4.&nbsp; I have the carriers set to retire, so the attacks should only occur on on day, giving my ships a one-day head start on the return trip.
&nbsp;
Plenty of risks involved in this strike, but it's a hunch I've felt strongly enough to play.
&nbsp;
I've been pondering why Miller kept the KB in the DEI.&nbsp; I *think* now that he was worried that the Allies would load up the Java airfields with carrier strike aircraft.&nbsp; (Good idea, but by the time I thought of it Soerabaja was about to fall).
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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Chickenboy
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RE: Here come the Rebels (maybe)!

Post by Chickenboy »

Il nous faut de l'audace, encore de l'audace, toujours de l'audace!

Go get 'em Canorebel! I've been hoping you'd opt for this masterstroke!
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Wittmann30
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RE: Here come the Rebels (maybe)!

Post by Wittmann30 »

Well, i would have bet that you do that ;) Good luck!

Just a question, what if your opponent disbanded KB in Soerabaja? Did you ordered a port strike as secondary mission?

Hopefully you catch him docked. Can't wait to see the results
“God grant me the courage not to give up what I think is right even though I think it is hopeless.”

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Canoerebel
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RE: Here come the Rebels (maybe)!

Post by Canoerebel »

4/16/42 and 4/17/42

Operation Antietam: As noted in my previous post this operation is a "go". All carrier strike aircraft have been set for Naval Attack (primary) and Port Strike - Soerabaja (secondary). The TFs are currently 12 hexes south of Soerabaja. The "plan" is to move north eight hexes (to a point four hexes south of Soerabaja and five hexes southeast of Semereng) on the 18th and launch the attack. All TFs are following TF 448, which is set to retire, so after those day-one strikes the TFs are "supposed" to pull back toward Perth. This is a complicated attack with several unfamiliar sequences that must go right or the attack could fizzle...or, of course, the KB and LBA could be waiting and I could get a very bad dose of "I wish I hadn't done this." Optimally, the attack damages the KB or other Japs shipping, administering more harm than it receives. We'll see.

SoPac: The big, long, risky operation to reinforce Noumea, Suva and Pago Pago is drawing to a close - one more regiment of Marines will arrive at PP in two days bringing the AV there to about 700. If Operation Antietam goes awry, Miller will have "free reign" to raid and pillage in the Pacific for a number of months, so these bases have to be strong enough to stop an invasion or require such a massive commitment of Jap assets that it serves as an effective speed bump. The reinforcing operation has gone so well that I even have a small garrison (Aussie brigade) at Efate with another brigade on the way to Koumac.

India/Ceylon: This theater "feels" much more secure to me than it did in WitP. One reason for that is that in WitP I fought a very forward defense - most everything went into Burma where I successfully held the Mandalay line. In AE it doesn't seem to make sense to put too much forward due to the supply situation, so bases in India have larger garrisons. At the moment I have 550 AV at Colombo and 900 at Madras. Bombay and Karachi have about 300 AV each. Diamond Harbor, Calcutta, and Chittagong have decent garrisons in the 300 AV range. I will eventually move units forward from Madras, but right now I like having them at 100 prep so that they can train up from the 30s and 40s range. There is no indication that Miller has designs on India.

Oz: This continent likewise seems safer, in part because Miller is fairly cautious unlike John III, my other regular opponent who likes to run bezerk. Perth has 300 AV, Darwin about 250 with two good regiments on the way (they each landed at Perth, caught the train to Alice Springs, and now have to march overland to Darwin). Brisbane and Sydney are quite strong. Melbourne and Adelaide are decent given the advantage of their remote locations. Even Townsville and Cairns have enough to halt "quicky" attacks. The east side of Oz feels safe to me. Darwin is vulnerable due to location. Perth is critical due to it's supply link to Capetown.

Subs: The carnage continues. RO-60 gets a TK near Melbourne (I thought TKs were notoriously tought to sink, but in this game to date one TT has been enough to finish them); I-23 got an AK at PP and then put a TT into a brittle DD that is safely in port and may survive. PP is mined, now, but to no obvious effect thus far.

Onward, Antietam!

"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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ny59giants
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RE: Here come the Rebels (maybe)!

Post by ny59giants »

South Pacific: How are you defending in depth around Suva and Pago Pago?? With so many more potential bases near by, I'm still wondering how this area can be defended. I would think the bases near PP that have potential port expansion (non-zero) would be possible targets.

Line Islands: Did you decide to build up Palmyra and/or Christmas?? If so, what additional troops did you send there??

Good Luck on your hit and run. [:)]
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Canoerebel
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Antietam = Carnage

Post by Canoerebel »

Gents,

My opponent just sent me the combat replay file with a request that I play the combat turn and then get in touch with him via email. I played the turn and it is absolute carnage on both sides. I have to go from memory, because I don't have the text file yet, but it appears that the strike was a mutual distruction event although strategically it may be a pretty important Allied victory. I *think* my opponent may have interpreted it that way and may be mulling over some sort of massive "oops, let's do this over" (not sure, but that's my hunch).

For some reason the Japs struck first with two big strikes - one from carriers docked at Soerabaja and another from carriers docked at Semereng (a surprise because the Allies had TONS of patrol aircraft at Malang and on ship). The Allies had a HUGE strike against the Soerabaja ships in the a.m. and a large strike against the Semereng ships in the p.m.

The main KB was at Soerabaja and I think Hiryu, Soryu, and at least one other CV took alot of hits along with several CVLs. Some damage (including TTs) inflicted on a few BBs with bomb strikes on smaller stuff. The P.M. strike appeared to badly damage three fleet carriers at Semereng.

The Jap strikes probably did in four or five Allied carriers and at least three or four BBs.

Carnage! I'll post the actual combat reports when available along with any comments/requests from my opponent.

Strategically, I'd say this has to be a victory. The KB has been reduced considerably for months which means the Pacific should be safer from overwhelming attacks. The Allies took heavy losses tactically, but I'd say the losses were roughly comparable.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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Canoerebel
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RE: Antietam = Carnage

Post by Canoerebel »

Here's the email from Miller:

"Hi Dan, I have tried to run it again two more times since I sent it to you and no luck....it crashes near the end so I have not got no way of getting my next turn back to you. I think you are going to have to send it again.

Needless to say it seemed like a total disaster for me......I am going to have to think long and hard as to whether it is worthwhile for me to continue......excellent move by you so I can't complain. Please sent the same turn again and I will see if it will run all the way..."

There replay does crash at the very end, so that could be a problem. As for the possibility of conceding, I'll mull over how I would respond to that.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
Smeulders
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RE: Antietam = Carnage

Post by Smeulders »

Congratulations are in order, this could very well be a huge victory.
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Wittmann30
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RE: Antietam = Carnage

Post by Wittmann30 »

Haha! Did this crash problem happened you before in the game?
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Canoerebel
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RE: Antietam = Carnage

Post by Canoerebel »

No, it didn't happen before! It's purely bad luck - I've run it myself and it crashes on me too. My opponent is a "good guy" who I've played for years. No question about the legitimacy of the crash - but talk about bad timing!

I've re-done the turn - it didn't take long because, as you all know, my TFs had been steaming in circles for a week waiting for me to make the decision to strike or withdraw. So all I had to do was issue orders for the lead TF to advance to the target hex. I also had to re-issue orders to a few of the air groups that had anomolies (one group of Devastators had been set to train until the turn I had ordered the original strike, etc.).

I've sent him the re-done turn, so we have to do it all over again. No doubt the results will differ, but hopefully the overall balance will be roughly the same.

Stay tune for further reports later this afternoon.

P.S. Antietam appears to have been an excellent name for this operation.

P.P.S. Sometimes it's right to go with a "strong hunch" (especially if the hunch comes is a product of experience with the game and familiarity with the opponent).
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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Canoerebel
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RE: Here come the Rebels (maybe)!

Post by Canoerebel »

ORIGINAL: ny59giants
South Pacific: How are you defending in depth around Suva and Pago Pago?? With so many more potential bases near by, I'm still wondering how this area can be defended. I would think the bases near PP that have potential port expansion (non-zero) would be possible targets.

Line Islands: Did you decide to build up Palmyra and/or Christmas?? If so, what additional troops did you send there??

Good Luck on your hit and run. [:)]

While awaiting the re-do Antietam results, I'll reply to NY's questions.

The Allies have to garrision something, so it seems like the largest bases (no garrison limits) with the best airfields and ports are the logical ones. You're right about the multitude of other hexes that have good base potential, but it would take the Japs awhile to get them up and running; and wouldn't it be awfully hard for the Japs to ignore Noumea, Suva, and Pago Pago while trying to build up something nearby to compete with them? Finally, each of these bases is now staffed by large base forces with quite an array of aircraft. So tactically and strategically this MLR is stout.

Yes, I've reinforced and built up the Line Islands. Christmas Island has an AV of 82 with good forts and base forces. It doesn't have a garrison limit, so it can use more. Palmyra has an AV of 50 and is already at its limit of 6,000 troops. Johnston Island I haven't reinforced; Canton I've reinforced slightly but it's so far forward that Miller could take it relatively easily. I chose to reinforce the other bases listed rather than Canton. Given enough time, of course, I would have new troops to commit there.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
Swenslim
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RE: Antietam = Carnage

Post by Swenslim »

Interesting, did you sank his CV's or just heavily damaged ? Because if you just damaged them (even for half year in repair yards) and lost 4-5 allied CV's I cant name this victory at all.
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Canoerebel
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RE: Antietam = Carnage

Post by Canoerebel »

I dunno yet - several Jap carriers only took bomb hits - two or three or four 1,000 pounders. They are in port, which could save them, but Jap carriers are also very brittle. My best guess is that at least two carriers went under with three or four more heavily damaged. Two CVLs were roughed up and they are even more heavily damaged. I'd say one or two Jap BBs took torpedoes, which should shut them down for many months. IE - the KB is out of operation for three to six months. This is critical because Miller was just wrapping up his DEI operations and would next be looking to CenPac or SoPac. It's hard to get frisky in the wide open expanses of the Pacific without strong carrier support.

So, the intial results I believe were a strong Allied victory even though Allied losses likely exceeded those of the Japs. Miller feels that way too, obviously, given his email comments.

We'll see what the second replay does and I'll post the results.

If Miller concludes that this was a strategic defeat of such magnitude that the game cannot continue, I'll probably offer to go back perhaps a turn or two, cancel the operation, and he agrees to keep the KB posted in the DEI vicinity for a period long enough to permit me to get my carriers out of the area - perhaps a week or ten days.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
modrow
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RE: Antietam = Carnage

Post by modrow »

Canoerebel,
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
No, it didn't happen before! It's purely bad luck - I've run it myself and it crashes on me too. My opponent is a "good guy" who I've played for years. No question about the legitimacy of the crash - but talk about bad timing!

did you shorten any replay ? In my game against Rattovolante, I once got a .001 file which seemed to crash all the time in the middle of the combat replays, always at the same attack. I was able to make it run through by watching really everything, never shortcutting anything that was shown. Perhaps this helps in your case as well...

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Canoerebel
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RE: Antietam = Carnage

Post by Canoerebel »

I'm always shortcutting the interminable Jap bombardment at Changsha plus the nuisance little air raids. I"ll try again. Thanks for the suggestion.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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Q-Ball
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RE: Antietam = Carnage

Post by Q-Ball »

Dan, very interesting gambit there. Cuttlefish, you must be wondering if I have several carriers out there.....

It's pretty easy to sneak up on Java if you are the Allies. A reasonable precaution for the Japanese is an Air HQ and Nettys at Samerang. It's also a mistake to Dock a CV anywhere except where you are guaranteed safety, or put it in a position to reduce CAP because it's on a coastline. Some lessons are learned the hard way.

It's probably hard to say who won until you can look at your damage and the combat report. One advantage he has is that he can dock damaged ships right away, and you can't. Nevertheless, his reaction would indicate that he's disappointed. I can't wait for the replay!
aztez
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RE: Antietam = Carnage

Post by aztez »

Intresting to see these combat reports from that encounter.

Intresting that your opponent thinks this viable to admit defeat in such an early date. He did risk his carriers and this encounter seems not be one sided affair either. To me nothing wrong here since both sides took damage.

Sometimes risks can pay off nicely and vice versa.
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rattovolante
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RE: Antietam = Carnage

Post by rattovolante »

ORIGINAL: hartwig.modrow

did you shorten any replay ? In my game against Rattovolante, I once got a .001 file which seemed to crash all the time in the middle of the combat replays, always at the same attack. I was able to make it run through by watching really everything, never shortcutting anything that was shown. Perhaps this helps in your case as well...

Hartwig

Really? what round was it? I didn't have this problem, I wonder if it was a problem of the .001 file (i.e., if I re-generate it, will it still cause the crash?)
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