Manila or Pearl-new paradigm?

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Chickenboy
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Manila or Pearl-new paradigm?

Post by Chickenboy »

Just started two PBEMs as IJN. I elected for a Manila port strike on both occasions over a PH strike. Both were pretty nasty and resulted in the sinking or damaging of most of the SS fleet there. At least that's what my FOW intel is telling me. 800kg bombs on submarines make a real mess of things.

I can't talk about follow-up for KB in the area right now because both PBEMs are in their infancy.

My rationale for striking Manila was due, in part, to the increased resource, oil and supply shipping effort required of the IJN in AE versus WiTP. No longer do I have supernumerary xAKs-it's all hands on deck for hauling stuff back home to the HI. Because of the greater threat that submarines have against merchant shipping convoys and the lack of effective IJN escort for said convoys, I elected to take as many of these out of the equation as possible in 1941. I'm less concerned about a bunch of old slow USN battleships' activities against my merchant convoys.

I'm pretty sure that there will also be fewer USN ships successfully evacuating the Phillipines with KB nearby. Call it a hunch.

In AE, what do you think about the rationale for a Manila port strike versus WiTP? Has your rationale changed with a different game engine and resource management?
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undercovergeek
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RE: Manila or Pearl-new paradigm?

Post by undercovergeek »

i opted for both - still sent the KB to Pearl but sent every betty and nell to manilla from formosa and killed 10-12 subs and then hung around for the inevitable exodus with the LBA to the North and the Ryujo to the south - its working so far
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Yank
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RE: Manila or Pearl-new paradigm?

Post by Yank »

But he has no defense against my rampaging Vildebeests in Singapore! [;)]
Ils ne passeront pas

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Chickenboy
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RE: Manila or Pearl-new paradigm?

Post by Chickenboy »

I should have mentioned in my original post that I would not consider surprise port attacks on BOTH sides of the international date line (e.g., PH and Manila) in the name of fairness. It's an either / or for me.
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undercovergeek
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RE: Manila or Pearl-new paradigm?

Post by undercovergeek »

ORIGINAL: Yank

But he has no defense against my rampaging Vildebeests in Singapore! [;)]

indeed - a cursed plague upon my landings they are - ill not be sorry when ive destroyed them all
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RE: Manila or Pearl-new paradigm?

Post by undercovergeek »

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I should have mentioned in my original post that I would not consider surprise port attacks on BOTH sides of the international date line (e.g., PH and Manila) in the name of fairness. It's an either / or for me.

fair enough - as mentioned in my AAR yank and i have no home rules just common sense, well discuss anything that seems off or wrong at the time. It never even occureed to me it could be seen this way - each to their own [:)]
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Chickenboy
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RE: Manila or Pearl-new paradigm?

Post by Chickenboy »

Bump for additional insight...
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aprezto
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RE: Manila or Pearl-new paradigm?

Post by aprezto »

Chickenboy.

Talk to Herbie: 1275psi. He swears black and blue that hitting Manilla is the go due to the sub cull, as you've pointed out. However, I do know he does this due to pain suffered at the hands of allied subs, generally the S class, but that it is a hangover from WitP Vanilla.

From my perspective the danger offered by both targets: subs and BBs is minimal until the sub torpedoes are sorted out and the allies gain some aerial presedence such that you can afford to utilise the old slow BBs in harms way.
Personally I think the subs are more useful but my heart lies with the BBs. Nothing like heavy metal thumping some hapless surprised airstrip, which IMO is much easier in AE due to the restricted scouting.
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Ketza
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RE: Manila or Pearl-new paradigm?

Post by Ketza »

Back in the days of WITP I decided that manila was the way to go for several reasons:

1) Killing the subs - face it you will never get another opportunity to kill so many subs so quickly. I look at it this way. You have to deal with the subs on a constant basis with a very low chance of sinking them. Sinking 25 or more saves you shipping and hassles in the long run.

I have practiced my opening air raids to the point where I sink or seriously damage every sub at Manila. Now I get this accomplished by commiting the KB. Most players will not allow multiple port attacks in different time zones so if your going to pick one port go all out.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Morning Air attack on Manila , at 79,77

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 28 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 9
G4M1 Betty x 81



No Japanese losses

Allied Ships
xAKL Compagnia Filipinas, Bomb hits 1, on fire
SS Swordfish, Bomb hits 1
AS Holland, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
xAKL Sagoland, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Peary, Bomb hits 1, on fire
SS Tarpon, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
SS Searaven, Bomb hits 1
AM Finch, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
SS Pickerel, Bomb hits 1
SS Sargo, Bomb hits 2
AVD Childs, Bomb hits 1, on fire
SS Perch, Bomb hits 1
TK Gertrude Kellogg, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Ethel Edwards, Bomb hits 1, on fire
SS S-41, Bomb hits 1
SS Seal, Bomb hits 1
xAK Capillo, Bomb hits 1, on fire
SS Porpoise, Bomb hits 2, heavy damage
AV Langley, Bomb hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage
PG Isabel, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
SS S-38, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
SS Salmon, Bomb hits 1
AM Lark, Bomb hits 1, on fire
SS Skipjack, Bomb hits 1, heavy damage
xAP Rochambeau, Bomb hits 1, on fire
AO Pecos, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
SS Sailfish, Bomb hits 2, heavy damage
xAKL Bisayas, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
SS Sculpin, Bomb hits 2, heavy damage
xAKL Corregidor, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
SS Spearfish, Bomb hits 1, heavy damage


Allied ground losses:
11 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 2 (0 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Vehicles lost 1 (0 destroyed, 1 disabled)


Port hits 4
Port fuel hits 2

Aircraft Attacking:
27 x G4M1 Betty bombing from 6000 feet
Port Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb
27 x G4M1 Betty bombing from 6000 feet
Port Attack: 1 x 800 kg AP Bomb
27 x G4M1 Betty bombing from 6000 feet
Port Attack: 1 x 800 kg AP Bomb
1 x A6M2 Zero sweeping at 10000 feet *



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Clark Field , at 79,76

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 26 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 62
G3M2 Nell x 36



Allied aircraft
P-40B Warhawk x 1


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
P-40B Warhawk: 1 damaged
P-40B Warhawk: 1 destroyed on ground
O-47A: 3 destroyed on ground
P-35A: 1 destroyed on ground


Allied ground losses:
20 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled


Airbase hits 38
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 154

Aircraft Attacking:
19 x A6M2 Zero diving from 6000'
Airfield Attack: 2 x 60 kg GP Bomb
27 x G3M2 Nell bombing from 6000 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb
3 x A6M2 Zero diving from 11000'
Airfield Attack: 1 plane(s) with no ordnance
Airfield Attack: 2 x 60 kg GP Bomb
9 x G3M2 Nell bombing from 6000 feet
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb
24 x A6M2 Zero diving from 11000'
Airfield Attack: 2 x 60 kg GP Bomb
4 x A6M2 Zero sweeping at 6000 feet

CAP engaged:
24th PG/Hq Sqn with P-40B Warhawk (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 1 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 10000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 10 minutes



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Manila , at 79,77

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 40 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 75
B5N2 Kate x 144
D3A1 Val x 135



Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 1 damaged
D3A1 Val: 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
P-40E Warhawk: 1 destroyed on ground

Allied Ships
xAKL Sagoland, heavy fires
SS Sargo, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
SS Perch, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
SS Salmon, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
DD John D. Ford, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Pope, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
xAKL Paz, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
SS Snapper, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
SS Pickerel, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
AM Bittern, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAKL Compagnia Filipinas, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
AO Trinity, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
SS Swordfish, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
SS Seawolf, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
SS Skipjack, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
SS Sculpin, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
xAKL Corregidor, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
SS Permit, Bomb hits 4, and is sunk
xAK Si Kiang, Bomb hits 2, on fire
xAP President Madison, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
SS Sealion, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
SS Saury, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
xAK Capillo, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
SS Searaven, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
PG Asheville, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
xAKL Bisayas, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
AV Langley, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
SS Seal, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
DD Peary, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Pillsbury, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
SS S-37, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
SS Stingray, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
SS Pike, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
AM Whippoorwill, Bomb hits 1, on fire
xAP Neptuna, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
PG Tulsa, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAP Rochambeau, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
SS Sturgeon, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
SS S-40, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
SS S-41, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
xAK Tantalus, Bomb hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage
PT Q-111, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
PT-32, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
AS Otus, Bomb hits 1, on fire
SS Shark, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk
SS Spearfish, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
AVD Childs, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
TK Mindanao, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
PT-35, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
xAK Ethel Edwards, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
SS Seadragon, Bomb hits 1
PT-34, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
AM Lark, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
PT-31, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk


Allied ground losses:
34 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 1 (0 destroyed, 1 disabled)


Airbase hits 2
Airbase supply hits 4
Runway hits 37
Port hits 14
Port fuel hits 2
Port supply hits 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Iba , at 78,75

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 34 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 8
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 18
Ki-48-Ib Lily x 27



Allied aircraft
no flights

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
P-40E Warhawk: 2 destroyed on ground


Allied ground losses:
15 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled


Airbase hits 5
Airbase supply hits 5
Runway hits 38

Aircraft Attacking:
27 x Ki-48-Ib Lily bombing from 9000 feet *
Airfield Attack: 2 x 100 kg GP Bomb
18 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 9000 feet *
Airfield Attack: 2 x 250 kg GP Bomb





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Naval bombardment of Iba at 78,75

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
P-40E Warhawk: 2 destroyed on ground

Japanese Ships
CA Ashigara
CA Maya
CL Kuma
CL Natori
DD Hatakaze
DD Harukaze
DD Nagatsuki
DD Fumizuki
DD Minazuki
DD Satsuki


Allied ground losses:
180 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 14 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 4 (0 destroyed, 4 disabled)


Airbase hits 10
Airbase supply hits 9
Runway hits 57
Port hits 1


As you can see to me its just important to focus on the allied air force in the PI. Clark gets the most attention and a bombardment tf visits IBA. Most of my tests of the above raids leave 75% of the allied fighters in the PI damaged or destroyed. usually 90% or so of the B-17s are damaged/destroyed as well.

2) Strategic positioning of the KB and freedom of movement in the SRA - As an allied player I loved it when the Jap hit PH. It gave me all kinds of options in the SRA. Withdrawing troops, fuel to OZ and the ability to concentrate unmolested made the going tougher for the Japanese and increased their losses. Knowing what can happen if the allies are given time to prepare I choose to disrupt them.

3) Allied reaction - I have found a Manila strike in WITP usually meant an agressive allied action early. This is to be welcomed in my opinion. Sinking Old BBS in the Coral sea or the Lexinton near Tarawa with Betties is the usual type outcome of such moves. Once things in the DEI/PI are under wraps and covered with LBA sailing the KB back to the Cent or South pacific by Mid january usually trumps and moves the allied player may make.

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Chickenboy
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RE: Manila or Pearl-new paradigm?

Post by Chickenboy »

Very helpful post, Ketza. Good concentration of striking force.

Can you comment on the effect of KB in sinking any straggler shipping, CA Houston or CL Boise from your actions? Do you find this easier to accomplish with such an abundance of air striking power?

Also, in AE, have you noticed an effect on your ability to quickly exploit resource and oil sources versus the 1-2 month delay usually brooked while conquering the DEI without KB's assistance?

Many thanks for your insight.
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koontz
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RE: Manila or Pearl-new paradigm?

Post by koontz »

Interesting opening move!

So where do you position the KB?
West or East of Philippines?

And what about the Wake invasion, put that on hold?

And securing the Fiji?

Was also thinking on an early invasion of Ceylon.

Decisions decisions...that is all that make this game so great [:)]

Amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics.

"All warfare is based on deception. There is no place where espionage is not used. Offer the enemy bait to lure him."
sfbaytf
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RE: Manila or Pearl-new paradigm?

Post by sfbaytf »

Interesting decision, given the concensus that surface ships rule in AE. If I understand correctly you're leaving the Pacific Fleet at Pearl intact. Given the piss poor performance of American torpedoes till mid 43, I'm not sure you have much to fear from them. By the time American torpedoes begin working, the US Navy will be getting new subs by the bucketload.
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Chickenboy
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RE: Manila or Pearl-new paradigm?

Post by Chickenboy »

ORIGINAL: sfbaytf

Interesting decision, given the concensus that surface ships rule in AE. If I understand correctly you're leaving the Pacific Fleet at Pearl intact. Given the piss poor performance of American torpedoes till mid 43, I'm not sure you have much to fear from them. By the time American torpedoes begin working, the US Navy will be getting new subs by the bucketload.
I'm not sure if I'm on board with 'consensus' of surface ships' rule in AE. I've heard those opinions, but believe them to be simplistic binary false choices. AE is such the rock/paper/scissors game that I don't think any one weapons platform or manifestation holds sway over all others.

Is the surface fleet more important that WiTP? Maybe. Who cares? I'm not comparing weapons systems in AE to WiTP. They're two totally distinct playing experiences.

The Pearl Harbor attack can be simulated easily (2 sunk BBs or more) by one ill-advised old BB SCTF that gets nailed by torpedo carrying aircraft. Bingo-you've got your PH attack right there. Mini-KB can do this, an aggressive IJN SS can do this, KB can do this or LBA torpedo aircraft can do this. Ketza was right on target about this.

I think the other argument is that these 20-25 SS that get nailed in opening phases with the Manila gambit aren't alive in 1944 to get better torpedoes. Yes, it will make a sizeable difference, having 25 fewer allied subs in the OOB in 1944.

Attacking Manila isn't the sexy or splashy big bang that greasing Pearl is. Its effects are more subdued or subtle (how do you define 'fewer' allied SS attacks?). But, I believe that they are more far-reaching than allowing some old BBs to stick around longer than historical.
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sfbaytf
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RE: Manila or Pearl-new paradigm?

Post by sfbaytf »

I like the idea of trying something new and u expected. In the meantime I'll play devils advocate. Having 25 fewer subs at the beginning of the war does hurt the allieds-I would argue in terms of scouting and recon. Their effectivness against Japanese merchants and warships limits their early war usefulness in that department. The argument that 25 fewer subs in 1944, I have trouble swallowing. By then many of the 1941 subs would have been sunk-many in attacks that failed due to bad torpedoes.

The battleships at Pearl are slow and suck up fuel like no tomorrow. Still with a refit or 2 they will morph into pretty formidable warships. Also now the allied player can "afford" to lose them. They make good bomb magnets and if used properly can be the "sponge" that asorbs the blow and allows the carriers to get away.

I would argue too that come late 42 and 43 when chances are good you'll be fighting in the Solomons and DEI where surface duels will more than likely be common, those BBs will be moses useful to the allieds.

Ok my devils advocate hat is off... I would love to try a game where Pearl was left untouched and Manila the main target. Sounds like an interesting change. Question is where is your main strike force headed? If it's to the DEI with the intention of not letting the allieds truck away the fuel and supplies before the DEI falls then this could become very interesting.
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jetjockey
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RE: Manila or Pearl-new paradigm?

Post by jetjockey »

I can't argue against going after the shipping in Manila vs. PH; most of the ships sunk in Manila stay sunk! There is much valuable shipping in Manila that is much better at the bottom of the Bay than working against you, including those pesky SSs. I would however like to alter the calculation a bit. I don't feel that the allied subs are as invulnerable as most seem to believe, at least since the latest update. I have spent much time working on my ASW techniques and have used them (effectively) in a PBEM game started with the latest update. Well, it's now 2/9/42 and I've sunk six Allied SSs (5 US and 1 Dutch). Four were sunk by Type 95 DCs and two by 800kg AP bombs while seeking repairs in Manila for DC damage. Even allowing for FOW, my opponent will be seriously short of subs by summer.
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Chickenboy
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RE: Manila or Pearl-new paradigm?

Post by Chickenboy »

ORIGINAL: sfbaytf

I like the idea of trying something new and u expected. In the meantime I'll play devils advocate. Having 25 fewer subs at the beginning of the war does hurt the allieds-I would argue in terms of scouting and recon. Their effectivness against Japanese merchants and warships limits their early war usefulness in that department. The argument that 25 fewer subs in 1944, I have trouble swallowing. By then many of the 1941 subs would have been sunk-many in attacks that failed due to bad torpedoes.

The battleships at Pearl are slow and suck up fuel like no tomorrow. Still with a refit or 2 they will morph into pretty formidable warships. Also now the allied player can "afford" to lose them. They make good bomb magnets and if used properly can be the "sponge" that asorbs the blow and allows the carriers to get away.

I would argue too that come late 42 and 43 when chances are good you'll be fighting in the Solomons and DEI where surface duels will more than likely be common, those BBs will be moses useful to the allieds.

Ok my devils advocate hat is off... I would love to try a game where Pearl was left untouched and Manila the main target. Sounds like an interesting change. Question is where is your main strike force headed? If it's to the DEI with the intention of not letting the allieds truck away the fuel and supplies before the DEI falls then this could become very interesting.
If one assumes an 'average' PH attack, then 2 BBs are sunk (out of the game) and 4-6 others are badly damaged so as to be out of the game for a calendar year (more or less). By 1943, all of these ships will be back in action.

Others that have posited on this topic have supposed that if one of those unsunk allies SS goes on to sink 4-5 IJ ships in a given year (a very modest and attainable goal), that's essentially a 400-500 ship deficit that the IJ is being asked to calculate by *not* sinking these subs in Manila. Again, think your two old allied BBs are worth the difference in 1943? Cause I sure don't.

Or, for your example in the Solomons: Would I rather have 20-25 allied SS swamping the sea lanes of the Solomon chain and all approaches or two *more* old allied BBs? I'd take the SS, were I you.
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sfbaytf
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RE: Manila or Pearl-new paradigm?

Post by sfbaytf »

I have to put on the devils advocate cap regarding American subs. If you're playing with "historical American torpedoes" off, then by all means your assumptions are correct. If however Historical American Torpedoe setting is in play the figures quoted are way to high.

Few if any American sub will sink 4-5 ships a year in 42 with faulty torpedoes in my experiece. The first half of 43 will be about the same. 44-45 yes, but the Type E escorts as they now stand will make short work of any sub they detect.

Would I want subs instead of battleships in the Solomons? Mabye, maybe not. I placed more than a dozen American subs in my opponents path and it basically gave him more opportunities to sink them. The few that did get off shots missed or had duds hit their target. If I had a dime for everytime that happened I could get a six pack of some pretty good beer.

I like the idea of hitting Manila instead of Pearl, but I have doubts about the overstated payoff from the loss of subs- if historical torpedoes setting is used. At least you'll know the ships that survive Pearl have weapons that function. American subs are heartbreakers and an excercise in fustration for nearly 2 years.
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RE: Manila or Pearl-new paradigm?

Post by wpurdom »

Well, it seems to me the question is getting blurred by the blithe "sink or severly damage" formulation. Damaging a fleet sub in December 1942, no matter how severely means zilch, IMHO, unless they never make to where they can be repaired. And damaging an S-sub doesn't mean a whole lot. On the other hand, sinking a bunch of fleet subs could be a big deal. So unless you check up in 6+ months and find out exactly how many you actually sunk, it's going to be hard to evaluate. Let us know how it works out in 1943.
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RE: Manila or Pearl-new paradigm?

Post by sfbaytf »

Curious to what the thoughts are on the airpower that is left untouched on Oahu when you don't attack Pearl Harbor. It would probably cost PP's to change commands to deploy, but the airpower, plus the ships left intact is quite a force. 
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RE: Manila or Pearl-new paradigm?

Post by castor troy »

ORIGINAL: undercovergeek

i opted for both - still sent the KB to Pearl but sent every betty and nell to manilla from formosa and killed 10-12 subs and then hung around for the inevitable exodus with the LBA to the North and the Ryujo to the south - its working so far


two port strikes on day one are restricted by hrs in many PBEMs.
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