Campaign for North Africa 40-43 Analysis

[Curtis Lemay]

This is a shot of the start of my turn 54. Note the microscreen in the lower left corner. The remnants of the Italian 10th Army fell back to El Agheila, but reinforced by the Afrika Korps, are back with a vengeance. This shot illustrates how big a head start the Afrika Korps has gotten. Refer to the starting setup of the “Desert Fox” version to see where the Afrika Korps was at this point historically. This is a fun part of the scenario. It's hard to find any other scenario that has any comparable situation. It more resembles a naval battle than your normal front vs. front deal. It’s filled with strategic decisions about how much force to allocate to various tasks and contingencies.

Also, this is the first time the Axis theater recon has been non-zero. I’ve finally gotten a glimpse of Jeremy’s overall deployment in the microscreen. Note how deep into the desert he has stretched out his line. When I first saw this, I figured he was planning to let me pass near the coast and poach on my supply lines afterwards. That might have been interesting.

But it soon became clear that he was actually trying to secure his hanging flank on the southern map edge. This is a common failing of players new to the scenario. They’re not used to having a flank hanging in the air and want it secured against something. But, except for the El Alamein area, that just isn’t possible. The desert is too deep and the forces too small. By spreading out in this fashion, his forces are too thin to achieve anything. I’m just going to punch right through them.

One of the exciting features of this scenario is that the need to stretch out to counter enemy flanking efforts is countered by the need to concentrate to counter enemy breakthrough efforts. There’s no easy solution. It makes for very fluid, dynamic, and heart-stopping clashes. Players will have to learn to deal with it

[Curtis Lemay]

Attached is the start of my turn 59 showing the situation just south of Tobruk. Note the microscreen in the lower right corner. Notice that Jeremy has just abandoned a one-turn delaying line (leaving a bit of flotsam & jetsam behind in doing so) and set up a new temporary position seven hexes to the east (marked in red). Fog of war obscures many of the units in this new line. The rational appears to be just to delay my rate of advance. He has already cycled through this procedure a couple of times further west, with similar results. Now that in and of itself is wasteful enough, but now we’ve come to turn 59.

Part of his problem here is that he didn’t get far enough with O’Connor’s Raid, so that Rommel got a head start. Historically, the Axis spearhead would be in the area of Mechili at this time, not past Tobruk. That re-emphasizes how important it is for the Commonwealth player to execute O’Connor’s Raid successfully and completely, so that the Axis are beyond arms-length from Tobruk by the time the big shock penalty hits.

Remember the shock chart. On turn 59 O’Connor is captured and the Commonwealth is socked with a 25% shock penalty (20% in the latest version). As I said, the Commonwealth player doesn’t want his forces to be anywhere near the Axis forces when that penalty hits. I’m about to show why.

[Curtis Lemay]

This screen shot shows the situation at the end of the same turn 59. The red line is in the same place as the last shot. It’s actually worse than it looks, since the shock penalty has put a large fraction of Commonwealth units in reorganization, dooming them. Even the ones that can move will have a hard time escaping the noose closing towards Bardia. Over the next few turns the Commonwealth suffers a debacle on both sides of the penetration and beyond.

And it was so unnecessary. Part of this may have been that Jeremy was unaware of the shock coming or didn’t know how bad its effect would be. And he may have been surprised by how far the reach of units with 65 MP extends or how quickly healthy units can be evaporated with an attrition divider of 4. But, even after the game was over, I still couldn’t convince Jeremy that he was erring here. This is another common failing of players new to the scenario. They think territory is more important than forces. They would rather sacrifice equipment than succumb to the scorchingly fast territorial shifts so common in this game. I commonly see Commonwealth players trying to fight Rommel’s First Offensive all the way from Benghazi or worse. After they lose they then wonder how anyone could win with the Commonwealth. Well, whether anyone can or not, they must at least follow a sounder strategy that that to have a chance.

I can’t emphasize this enough: force preservation supercedes almost all territorial positions. The only territory the Axis player can’t afford to lose is his reinforcement hexes on the far western edge of the map. Similarly the Commonwealth player can’t afford to lose his reinforcement hexes on the far eastern edge of the map either. He also will be greatly harmed by the loss of Alexandria, and the loss of the El Alamein position will facilitate that loss, giving it special importance too. But other than those, all other territory can be abandoned at will multiple times, until the end of the game. It’s possible to completely convert the entire map at a leisurely pace in about 50 turns. Don’t ever think you can’t fall back. Especially since both players can expect to face conditions so lopsided that they have to have the maximum defensive benefits available to survive.

One little aside on this shot: note the air unit (circled in blue). This is another problem. Jeremy kept his air units too close to the front. That facilitated my destroying the Commonwealth airforce. But we’ll discuss that in the air strategy section.

[Curtis Lemay]

There is one exception to the above rule about territory. It is generally useful to defend Tobruk because the defensive benefits of its terrain usually reward the defender with a net plus in losses. This is especially true for the Commonwealth since there are special minefield benefits built into the game. Furthermore, the Commonwealth can expend units scheduled for withdrawal for that purpose, gaining even further. Just remember that trying to prevent or even delay (as in the previous example) the investment of Tobruk is a bad idea during the First Offensive phase.

This screen shot shows the defense of Tobruk at the start of the Axis game turn 68. Jeremy has chosen the 70th Infantry Division and the 18th Australian Brigade as the forces to be sacrificed in Tobruk. Considering that the 70th Infantry Division is scheduled to be withdrawn on turn 71 and the 18th Australian Brigade is scheduled to be withdrawn on turn 89, there is little consequence to the Commonwealth forces. In the actual assault, the defenders caused as great a loss to the attackers as they absorbed. Jeremy did a good job here.

Note that there was no need for me to use German units in this assault. At this point in the game, the Germans weren’t getting replacement squads or tanks. They needed to be conserved for a more critical contest. German squad replacements don’t start till turn 81. Tank replacements don’t start till turn 121 (Pz IIIs) or turn 135 (Pz IVs). This makes the German units rather hollow till about mid-game. Use them as sparingly as possible.

Can a Crusader-like situation develop, with Axis forces attacking into Tobruk while Commonwealth forces try to link up in a rescue? In my opinion, not until near the Crusader period, and by then, Tobruk will be long lost. I’ve tried all sorts of different things to make Tobruk have a chance of surviving till Crusader. Nothing has worked. I’ve concluded that it’s just a 20:20 hindsight problem. Rommel didn’t realize how short his window of opportunity was to exploit his First Offensive advantage, so he dallied. No Axis player will make that mistake. They will drive hell-bent-for-leather for Tobruk. This gives the scenario a non-historical aspect in this one regard. That’s wargaming.

Finally, note that the scenario has changed somewhat since this game was played. The Tobruk defenses now include fortified hexes and the minefield shock penalty has been scrapped. The optimum deployment arrangement may be a bit more constricted than shown in this screen shot.

[Curtis Lemay]

Well, if Tobruk can’t stand, then the Commonwealth had better fall back. Where to?

Here’s a shot of the Commonwealth turn 73. Note the microscreen in the lower right corner. Jeremy has fallen back to a line in front of Mersa Matruh. It should be obvious that this is a pretty long line to defend. The total length is 26 hexes. It’s so long Jeremy only has enough units to man a single defense line, although he has been able to form a significant reserve, giving him some counterattack potential. But his artillery has been spread pretty thin. This may have been either a case of not wanting to part with some valuable territory or a theory that fighting for every hex is the best way to safeguard the El Alamein position. Regardless, I think it was a mistake. This was too far forward. Falling back to the line (marked in red) at the eastern end of the shot, near Fuka, would have shortened the line to 15 hexes, creating a stronger defense with a bigger reserve.

Nevertheless, given that one is to defend along this line, the defense is well structured. Breaking it will be tough. But I have a total of 676 guns at the front and 178 level bombers. Jeremy is defending with 267 guns and 58 level bombers. But his level bombers are mostly unusable due to my air superiority. Without the 216 guns salvaged from 10th Army, I would have had only about 460 guns. It’s difficult to say how much artillery the Commonwealth would now have had they suffered no losses during O’Connor’s Raid or below Tobruk, because some of those lost would have been withdrawn anyway. But they would surely have had much more.

Note one other item. The (circled in blue) supply unit at the bottom is on a peak hex. That causes all hexes within 8 hexes of the peak to be observed. A friendly unit must be on the peak hex at some time during the turn to get that benefit. There are multiple peak hexes in the Qattara Depression area, the Jebel Akhdar area, and the Pyramids are peak hexes. They’re especially useful in those periods when your theater recon is zero. One final point about that same supply unit. Note that it is only 20 hexes from the other supply unit in the north (circled in yellow). It has therefore been disabled and is not extending supply, as it should. Be sure your supply units are more than 25 hexes apart at the end of your turn to keep them all operational on the next turn.

[Curtis Lemay]

Here’s a shot of the situation at the start of the Commonwealth turn 74. Unfortunately (or fortunately from my perspective) Jeremy can’t tell, due to fog of war that my turn has ended early and all my artillery and planes are out of support mode. My forces are as defenseless as they will ever be. Well, actually, he can get a slight hint at that from the one spotted artillery stack (circled in blue). But that evidently wasn’t enough info for him to tumble to it. He didn’t attack (except against the motorcycle spearhead unit near Minqar Qaim). Perhaps had his lines been shorter and therefore his reserve more concentrated he might have made a different decision. Regardless, it was an opportunity missed.

It was also a lesson for me about not pushing the turn too far. A lesson I seem to have to keep retaking.

[Curtis Lemay]

This shot shows the start of the Commonwealth turn 75. Having learned my lesson about pushing the turn too far on the previous turn, I proceeded to DO IT AGAIN! Once more the turn ended early leaving my artillery (this time with a few exceptions) out of support mode. Worse, this time far more of the artillery is spotted and it has to be obvious to Jeremy that my turn was short. He decides to counterattack, including exposing part of the Royal Navy for the first time since O’Connor’s Raid.

[Curtis Lemay]

And the result is – disaster! His turn ends after one round. Most of his artillery is out of support mode; few of his defending units are dug in, and are mostly in minimize losses tolerance. The naval units are left in Stuka range. I can’t fault Jeremy for anything here. He made the right move, but just suffered a very bad break, and I lucked out. How to employ your artillery is more art than science. No matter what you do, if you get a very short turn its going to be bad.

While we’re on this shot, though, this is a good place to discuss loss tolerance options. As noted, Jeremy’s units ended in minimize losses tolerance. That was because Jeremy was using that setting during his attacks to ensure that the attack ended after only expending one round. The objective of this tactic is to attack, expending one round, advance and set up additional attacks, and then repeat this as often as possible. This is a pretty standard technique in TOAW, and most players are probably familiar with it.

However, I have found that it is not the optimum setting for this scenario. I almost universally use the limit losses tolerance setting for my attacks. The reason is that the Attrition Divider setting for this scenario is 4, not the default 10 that most players are used to. That means that combat in CFNA is 2.5 times as bloody as in any scenario using the default setting. The impact of this is that units attacking at limit losses tolerance will almost always end their attack after only one round anyway, which is the objective.

The problem with units attacking at minimize losses tolerance is that they commonly drop out of the attack even earlier. They can drop out just after the enemy artillery support phase, before even getting a chance to fire back. This is especially a problem when enemy artillery support is significant (in other words, most of the time). This often results in the “tanks won’t die” syndrome. That’s a situation where all offensive losses are inflicted by the supporting artillery only (which can’t kill tanks) and none by the ground assault forces, which drop out before firing. I’ve found that placing them on limit losses tolerance makes it much more likely at this AD setting that they will stay in the combat long enough to fire back. And that’s critical if armored defenders are being attacked, and useful in all cases.

Note that for defense, both Jeremy and I tend to stick with ignore losses tolerance. All sorts of bad things start when defenders are forced to retreat. Ignore losses tolerance minimizes the chance of that.

[Curtis Lemay]

Here is a shot of the end of the Axis turn 76. The Commonwealth defenders have been decimated and the naval units sunk. For all practical purposes, this sequence of turns decided the game. Jeremy made no further mistakes and even pulled off some enlightening surprises with the fleet. These will be discussed further on. But it was too little too late. The combination of a learning curve during O’Connor’s Raid, the debacle below Tobruk, and the bad luck near Mersa Matruh was too much to overcome during the dangerous First Offensive phase.

[Curtis Lemay]

But we still need to finish examining the El Alamein position. Shown here on turn 79 is the fall back position Jeremy occupied next. Note the microscreen on the right center. This line, anchored at Fuka, is 15 hexes long, thanks to the major escarpment extension at the southern end of it (it’s the same line that was marked in red on the previous Mersa Matruh shot). Note that, despite being decimated a few turns before, Jeremy has been able to construct a much stronger defense structure at this site, due to the shorter line to hold. There are three lines of combat units dug in with a dense line of artillery behind that. His reserve is much smaller, however. Imagine if he had set up here first.

[Curtis Lemay]

This shot shows the end of the CW turn 80. This was one of Jeremy’s best turns. He has chosen to launch a surprise counterattack that included bringing his artillery up forward to within bombardment range of my guns. It also included a raid by the fleet, which added greatly to the bombardment strength. As a result, I suffered a permanent loss of 163 pieces of artillery. Up to this point, I had not lost any artillery since the end of O’Connor’s Raid. From that point to this one, Jeremy had been the only one bleeding artillery.

This illustrates the vital importance of being non-passive in the defense. A passive defense may cost the attacker the maximum amount of shock troops, but it will never cost him any artillery. And as his attacks can and will penetrate into the defender’s rear areas, the passive defender will be the only one losing artillery. Due to the penultimate importance of artillery at this scale, this is a trend that will tend to snowball. Artillery support is vital to a defense. Once it becomes in short supply, the attacker not only can expect far less cost in general, but he will no longer need to minimize his exposure of shock troops. He will be able to apply overwhelming force to each attack, giving him much more favorable odds. Few defenses can stand under those circumstances.

The defender is sure to suffer some artillery loss no matter how well structured his defense is. Therefore, he cannot allow the attacker’s artillery to be invulnerable. He must counterattack. An additional benefit of counterattacking is that this increases the chance of evaporating enemy units. Attacking units can often be pulled out of action after excessive losses before evaporating. This allows them to recover replacements and supply/readiness near the front. Evaporated units must be rebuilt and then must traverse the length of the map to get back to the front. This takes an eternity for the Axis foot units, and they arrive supply depleted. This is one of the major strengths of the El Alamein position and it must be exploited.

Note that after sailing in and bombarding, the fleet retreated back to a safe enclave. This is the proper way to safely use the fleet. We’ll cover that in more detail in the naval strategy section.

[Curtis Lemay]

This shot is the start of the Commonwealth turn 84. Note the microscreen in the lower right corner. Note that after the inevitable collapse of the Fuka position, Jeremy has fallen back to this defense line, near El Alamein. This line is only 13 hexes long, making it the easiest to defend yet (if only Jeremy had had the forces left to do so). Also note that Jeremy has put most of his armor as well as the strongest infantry units to the south and center. He’s tempting me to direct the main strike at the northern defenses, where the fleet can have the biggest impact on my artillery. A good strategy that I fell for.

[Curtis Lemay]

But first, this shot shows the same turn from the Axis viewpoint. Note the air units circled in red. What happened next was probably as much a surprise to Jeremy as it was to me.

[Curtis Lemay]

This shot shows the start of the Axis turn 85. During his turn 84, Jeremy has sent the fleet on a bombardment sortie against my airfields. Note the absence of air units on four of those fields where there had been twelve squadrons. The fleet has evaporated those squadrons via bombardment. It was so easily done and so much of my airforce was similarly deployed on airfields next to the coast that, had he cared to risk it, he could probably have evaporated my entire airforce. In the actual event, only a total of 32 aircraft were permanently lost. But much more had to cycle through the reconstitution tracks, leaving me dangerously short-handed for a while.

This turn revealed a previously unknown critical problem for the Axis airforce. There are no airfields out of range of the fleet in Egypt, short of Alexandria. This will be covered in detail in the air strategy section, later. Had Jeremy been exploiting it from the start, my task would have been much more difficult. But by the time he had discovered it, I was so close to El Alamein that he had to devote the fleet to my artillery rather than my airforce. He never struck the airforce with the fleet again. He could have, since I tried a strategy of flying my air units into the close airfields, using them in combat, and then flying them back out of ship range again. This didn’t work very well. There was the age old problem of early turn endings, but even worse, combat causes a lot of air unit reorganizations. I don’t know why air units are so more subject to combat reorganizations than ground units, but they are. More often than not, the strategy failed and the air units were still in the exposed airfields after the turn ended.

[Curtis Lemay]

This shot shows the end of my turn 85. Note that the bulk of my artillery (circled in red) is in the north, within range of the fleet, but I’ve been rewarded with some success there. In Jeremy’s next turn, he hit my artillery hard with the fleet once more. I’ve got to reach El Alamein and get rid of that fleet.

Note that unused, full health units have been advanced into several of the enemy vacated hexes and dug in, in case of enemy counterattacks.

Note the base support unit (circled in blue) on a peak hex. Even with 35% recon, every peak hex helps.

[Curtis Lemay]

This shot shows the end of the Axis turn 87. Jeremy’s position has collapsed and he had no choice but to retreat to the Nile. But I wanted to show the final El Alamein position, marked by the red line, even though Jeremy never got to use it. It is only 12 hexes long, but it puts El Alamein in direct contact with the Axis.

With the fall of El Alamein, Jeremy lost the fleet (in the newest version, the fleet only goes into garrison at that point, not being permanently lost until Alexandria falls). My airforce and artillery situation therefore was saved.

[Curtis Lemay]

We can’t leave the El Alamein issue without examining the situation south of the Qattara Depression. As shown by the red lines, there are a number of constriction points that make the El Alamein line look positively spacious. But be aware that, while dunes and badlands block motorized movement, they can be traversed by foot units. But they will still block supply communications. That makes the defense a bit more complicated than in the case of the El Alamein one.

Reserves have to be available to block any enemy foot units that dare to cross the dunes etc. Such enemy units will end up out of supply but if not dealt with, could collapse the defense. It is usually best to have your own foot units available for this area, since such units can take a position in the dunes or badlands and motorized enemy units can’t attack them. Supply can be traced into a dune/badland hex, but not through one.

The critical factor is that the Commonwealth player needs to be prepared on this front in case the Axis player makes a major effort here. Reacting after the fact will be too late. The area is too remote. And once the last constriction point is breached there is no other good place to defend short of the Nile.

There are both advantages and disadvantages to the Axis player to go this route. The most obvious advantage is the chance to find the Commonwealth player unprepared here, thereby getting easy open field running. There is no real supply disadvantage, and obviously the fleet will not be a factor. But there is a real danger of finding the Commonwealth player here in force and getting clogged up. Also, there are no airfields at all, so you don’t even have the option to risk your airforce up close. Also, it’s a longer way to Alexandria, and that is the main objective. Finally, there is a risk of a Commonwealth counterattack into the Axis rear from the north that could potentially cutoff any Axis units past the first badland road crossing. That could be disastrous.

I’ve only seen one attempt at a major Axis effort in this area and it got clogged up right at the constriction points shown. In my game with Jeremy, I devoted an Italian infantry division (minus its artillery) to this effort, plus the oasis battalion. I broke into the open and caused Jeremy some trouble. But he eventually devoted some armor to the situation and I found myself in a lot of trouble, being without armor to counter. Had the El Alamein situation not broken, I would have had to try and run for it, and I’m not sure I could have outrun his armor. Ultimately, I have to say that the final verdict on the possibilities of this path has yet to be rendered.

[Curtis Lemay]

This shot shows the start of the Axis turn 102, showing Jeremy’s Nile defense line. Note the microscreen in the lower left corner. Note that I have occupied the Pyramids (peak hexes circled in red), giving me a good look at Jeremy’s deployment. At this point, he’s very short of artillery and there is no place for his airforce to hide. By the end of turn 104, the Commonwealth was wiped off the map.

While Jeremy was not able to recover from the loss of El Alamein at this point in the First Offensive, I do believe that he could have done so had this occurred a bit closer to the Crusader point of the game. The Nile can be a good defensive line. Also, the closer the front gets to the Commonwealth reinforcement hexes, the quicker those reinforcements get to the front, and the longer for Axis forces to get to the front. So it can be a tough problem. Of course the loss of the fleet and the loss of any safe enclave for the airforce can’t be good for the Commonwealth.

[Curtis Lemay]

Now readers should refer to the loss statistics spreadsheet. This shot shows the total losses chart. Y-axis gridlines are every 1000 pieces of equipment. The red line is Commonwealth losses and the blue line is Axis losses. I’ve divided the chart up into nine segments using the red pen.

The first segment is Graziani’s Offensive. The second segment is the cease-fire. The third segment is O’Connor’s Raid. The fourth segment is the Axis approach and investment of Tobruk (it includes the blue circle highlighting the Commonwealth debacle in this period). The fifth segment is the capture of Tobruk. The sixth segment is the Mersa Matruh line. The seventh segment is the Fuka line. The eighth segment is the El Alamein line. Finally, the ninth segment is the Nile.

Two observations are obvious. The big jump in Commonwealth losses relative to the Axis due to the debacle south of Tobruk (circled in blue), and the absence of a high loss ratio favorable to the Commonwealth during O’Connor’s Raid. It should be clear that the three El Alamein defense lines were each broken by attrition.

[Curtis Lemay]

This shot shows the artillery losses chart. Y-axis gridlines are every 200 guns. The red line is Commonwealth losses and the blue line is Axis losses.

The red circles show the unnecessary artillery losses suffered by the Commonwealth during O’Connor’s Raid and the debacle below Tobruk. The blue circle shows Jeremy’s surprise attack from the Fuka line.