Resource pathways

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Tophat1815
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Resource pathways

Post by Tophat1815 »

Has anyone playing Japan mapped the generation and flow of resources in China,Manchuria and Korea? How about resource generation in the various Japanese home islands?

Now that some very bright and ambitious person has done this mapping have you also developed a transport plan to get said resources to the factories that need the materials?

I am relying on pen,paper and meticulous attention to various bases resource levels over turns. I simply cannot get my WiTpstaff tool up and functional!

Thought I'd start this one off for all us JFB that need a wee tad bit of help from our overachiever brain trust.[;)]
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Local Yokel
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RE: Resource pathways

Post by Local Yokel »

This spreadsheet is a work in progress. I am using data dumped first from the scenario one database into a database against which I can execute SQL queries, with the product of those being then fed into the spreadsheet for further massaging. Since maths/stats was never my strong suit, I may well have gone awry in some of my calculations, but they seem to reflect what the manual tells us about how the Japanese economy has been structured in AE.

The image is of only the part of the spreadsheet that shows the surpluses and shortfalls of the Empire at its 7 Dec 1941 extent after constructing what was required to keep heavy and light industry running with no plant stoppages.

Salient points:

At first sight there's a massive shortfall of resources in Honshu, but in practice that is more than halved provided the surpluses available on the other Home Islands get transferred to where they are needed. According to Section 15.0 of the manual: "A base may transfer supplies, oil, and resources to an adjacent base regardless of the terrain the separates the two hexes (allows inland sea movement of resources and oil)." This suggests that seaborne transport of resources from Kyushu and Hokkaido (which have respectable surpluses) may not be necessary, but I suspect such automatic transfer may need a 'helping hand'.

In reality the resource problem isn't too great. Even though there is an aggregate daily shortfall of 5100 resource points if all industry is going full tilt, the shortfall is readily covered for several years by stockpiled reserves, provided you move available surpluses efficiently to where they're needed. In practice that means into Honshu out of Korea, Sakhalin, and - especially - Manchukuo. Incidentally, to model this I adapted the clusters provided in WitPStaff so as to break up the China/Korea/Manchukuo conglomerate, which I thought too unwieldy.

The real problem, as the developer notes suggest, is the shortage of oil. There is simply nowhere near enough oil in Honshu (or anywhere, for that matter) to utilise that island's refining capacity. The aggregate daily shortfall of oil points as against refining capacity in metropolitan Japan is 7690, so there is a role to be played by tankers importing oil rather than just fuel to the HI. If you don't use your refining capacity to the full, you are going to find yourself short of fuel either for your industry or for your ships (or both!).

The upshot of the Japanese effort to take Palembang's 1021 refinery points and 900 oil points is going to be just as critical as it was in WitP. Taking the smaller refineries/oil centres may get you over the problem of the shortfall in industry's requirements, but you then have to deal with fuel generation for your ships - not merely for military requirements but also to sustain the significantly larger haul of resources that is going to be needed.

The developer notes are optimistic in suggesting the economy as it stands is good for about 1.5-2 years. With no extra oil coming in, the stockpiled oil is good to sustain all industry for just shy of one year. But at that stage you won't have the 815 day cushion of fuel for factories, because the lack of oil will mean that the fuel consumption rate more closely approaches the 271 day figure reflecting the absence of any refining of oil in the Home Islands. And that's without using any fuel for ships.

A transport plan? Yet to work on that. Not going to be easy but a challenge to which I look forward.

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Tophat1815
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RE: Resource pathways

Post by Tophat1815 »

Thanks for your efforts here Local Yokel. I really need to crack that manual and do some studying on economy. I'm running a campaign scenario#2 against the AI to help me in my pbem game.
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RE: Resource pathways

Post by erstad »

ORIGINAL: Local Yokel

According to Section 15.0 of the manual: "A base may transfer supplies, oil, and resources to an adjacent base regardless of the terrain the separates the two hexes (allows inland sea movement of resources and oil)." This suggests that seaborne transport of resources from Kyushu and Hokkaido (which have respectable surpluses) may not be necessary, but I suspect such automatic transfer may need a 'helping hand'.

Only 500 points per port level connecting them (limited by the smaller port), per the manual. So they need a *big* helping hand.
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Gilbert
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RE: Resource pathways

Post by Gilbert »

Brilliant job Local Yokel. Thank you very much for your input[&o]

Regards

Gilbert
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Jim D Burns
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RE: Resource pathways

Post by Jim D Burns »

Does anyone else find it a little odd that Japan already has enough resources stockpiled to last the entire war? I understand a lot of it needs to be moved to the Home Islands, but why even have resource centers on the map given the size of the stockpile?

Jim

Edit: What the net effect of this will be, is Japan will be able to move most of the resources to the home islands in the first couple of years. Were available resources tied more to resource site production, then the home island demand would be a constant factor all game, thus requiring cargo transports bringing resources home all game long. But this huge stockpile allows Japan to get its war needs shipped home in the early years and saves it from late war sub and air interdiction.

Jim
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PaxMondo
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RE: Resource pathways

Post by PaxMondo »

ORIGINAL: Jim D Burns

Does anyone else find it a little odd that Japan already has enough resources stockpiled to last the entire war? I understand a lot of it needs to be moved to the Home Islands, but why even have resource centers on the map given the size of the stockpile?

Jim

Edit: What the net effect of this will be, is Japan will be able to move most of the resources to the home islands in the first couple of years. Were available resources tied more to resource site production, then the home island demand would be a constant factor all game, thus requiring cargo transports bringing resources home all game long. But this huge stockpile allows Japan to get its war needs shipped home in the early years and saves it from late war sub and air interdiction.

Jim

Oil was the issue for Japan in '41. She did not have energy to meet her industry needs once the embargo was put in place by the USA. Her resource needs were based upon economic expansion.

So AE has it correct from my understanding.
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Tophat1815
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RE: Resource pathways

Post by Tophat1815 »


 And if we want to accelerate shipbuilding or expand aircraft,engine,armaments or repair capability we will be sucking down resource levels. Not certain about how you were approaching things but I never intended to simply stand pat on Japanese production.
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RE: Resource pathways

Post by Mynok »

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Oil was the issue for Japan in '41. She did not have energy to meet her industry needs once the embargo was put in place by the USA. Her resource needs were based upon economic expansion.

So AE has it correct from my understanding.

I agree. Fuel will now be the hindering factor, and a serious one at that since it hinders both industry and the fleet. Refining capacity comes into play, which makes the Japanese economy and fleet operations a brittle thing indeed.

Another important thing to remember is that the Japanese shipping abilities in AE are drastically reduced. There is no way IMO all those resources are going to get shipped back in the first couple years with all the demands of troop transport being made on a very limited cargo capacity.
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Jim D Burns
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RE: Resource pathways

Post by Jim D Burns »

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo
Oil was the issue for Japan in '41.

Understood, and I have no problem with an over-abundance of resource centers across the map. What I have a problem with is the fact the resources are already produced at game start.

Thus Japan can stockpile 2 million (on map plus what gets produced in first year or two) or more resources in the first two years of the game in the home islands and not need to send a single task force to collect resources for the rest of the war after that.

That would not be at all historic. Resources represent more than just raw metal ores, they also represent food and rubber imports and anything else needed to keep the Japanese people alive during the war years. These imports were desperately short right up until the end of the war. Allied subs made getting enough imports to the Home islands all but impossible in 1944 and 1945.

But with so much already produced at game start, Japan will need no imports at all during 1944 and 1945. That is a HUGE advantage they should not have. Especially since you can't bomb resource stockpiles.

It will also free up almost 100% of the AK fleet to move fuel, so fuel imports should do just fine as well.

Jim
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Zebedee
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RE: Resource pathways

Post by Zebedee »

Sorry to be a dunce, but does the table which Local Yokel has kindly shared show that resources have to be transported to the Home Isles in the order of c.47000 per day (not accounting for the pre-existing stockpile being used) to sustain the economy as it stands on Day 1 of the GC?

That's a hefty chunk of Japan's merchant marine if so, and as the capacity of that marine is much smaller than WitP and will probably be impacted quite severely by the Allies almost being forced to fight for the SRA, that seems like it will be quite a daunting challenge to do over time.
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Tophat1815
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RE: Resource pathways

Post by Tophat1815 »

ORIGINAL: Zebedee

Sorry to be a dunce, but does the table which Local Yokel has kindly shared show that resources have to be transported to the Home Isles in the order of c.47000 per day (not accounting for the pre-existing stockpile being used) to sustain the economy as it stands on Day 1 of the GC?

That's a hefty chunk of Japan's merchant marine if so, and as the capacity of that marine is much smaller than WitP and will probably be impacted quite severely by the Allies almost being forced to fight for the SRA, that seems like it will be quite a daunting challenge to do over time.


The only way to really see the process and the needs of japan in action is to actually play the scenario. I am currently doing that against the ai. I hope my pbem opponent takes a good long time on his turn#1 as I did on mine. All I have is questions about just how much needs to be moved to where.

Right now central Home island is going to be the destination point of oil and resources. I really need to see where my refineries are located in Japan.

I see what Jim is saying,I just don't believe its as simple as that.
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RE: Resource pathways

Post by kfmiller41 »

Well from my PBEM game as Japan I am finding (and this is still early in the game, only 2 weeks in) that resources in Tokyo have vanished very quickly. Went from 900,000 on 7 Dec down to 67000 on hand 21 Dec With the light industry and heavy industry there is is sucking up resources at an alarming rate. I am shipping in alot from the other parts of Japan and from Manchuria but in certain high use cities it seems to really evaporate. I am really worried about oil, because if the major fields get damaged to heavily I don't see any way to recover just because of how long it takes to repair them and the supply you need to do it. Will have to wait and see how things develop. 
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Zebedee
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RE: Resource pathways

Post by Zebedee »

ORIGINAL: Tophat1812

The only way to really see the process and the needs of japan in action is to actually play the scenario. I am currently doing that against the ai. I hope my pbem opponent takes a good long time on his turn#1 as I did on mine. All I have is questions about just how much needs to be moved to where.

Right now central Home island is going to be the destination point of oil and resources. I really need to see where my refineries are located in Japan.

I see what Jim is saying,I just don't believe its as simple as that.

My thinking is currently:

The complexity seems to be in that while the Home Islands as a whole 'only' needs 47k resources daily, the 'bleed' rate across to Honshu won't transport the resources from the other islands quickly enough to feed Honshu. So you're looking at having to transfer the vast majority of those resources to Honshu by ship (c.60ks worth daily?). To maintain your 47k 'longhaul' route, you're obviously going to need a fair bit more than 47ks worth of cargo space. And on top of that another 60ks (and more) worth of shorthaulage.

Hope I'm wrong, but that's a tough challenge whilst also trying to supply everything else which needs supplying and transport units to where they need to be etc. Especially as your existing stockpiles will barely see you through to 1942 on Honshu. And of course, that's excluding any expansion.
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Jim D Burns
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RE: Resource pathways

Post by Jim D Burns »

ORIGINAL: Zebedee


My thinking is currently:

The complexity seems to be in that while the Home Islands as a whole 'only' needs 47k resources daily, the 'bleed' rate across to Honshu won't transport the resources from the other islands quickly enough to feed Honshu. So you're looking at having to transfer the vast majority of those resources to Honshu by ship (c.60ks worth daily?). To maintain your 47k 'longhaul' route, you're obviously going to need a fair bit more than 47ks worth of cargo space. And on top of that another 60ks (and more) worth of shorthaulage.

Hope I'm wrong, but that's a tough challenge whilst also trying to supply everything else which needs supplying and transport units to where they need to be etc. Especially as your existing stockpiles will barely see you through to 1942 on Honshu. And of course, that's excluding any expansion.

Japan has plenty of lift to manage that kind of daily income once they get the ships where they need to be. They have close to 200 or so AK's that have over 6000 capacity, that alone gives them over 1 million in cargo capacity and that doesn't count the hundreds and hundreds (perhaps thousands) of smaller sized AKs. So getting the resources home won't be an issue.

Half of the needed 40,000+ resources are produced in Manchukuo and Korea, very short runs indeed. Once you get some of the Korean ports close to Japan maxed out for faster load speeds, you'll be making the moves to Japan in one day.

The rest of the areas he's listed are all within a week's sailing time of the home islands, so it's only the shortfall of 5,000+ that will need to be brought home from areas that can be considered long haul runs.

The fact the extra resource sites in the DEI's that Japan needs to capture are spread out in smaller ports will be the big problem for Japan, requiring many smaller AKs due to the loading speeds of the smaller ports.

But using ports like Singapore, Balikpapan and Soerabaja as collection hubs for the smaller AK runs should help mitigate some of the issues so many small runs will bring up. Escorts of course being the main problem.

But overall, Japan has plenty of AK lift to both haul the resources and get supplies to the front. So until the allies can put a serious dent in the AK fleet, Japan should have no troubles at all keeping things humming along smoothly once they get their supply net set up.

Jim
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Andrew Brown
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RE: Resource pathways

Post by Andrew Brown »

ORIGINAL: Jim D Burns

Does anyone else find it a little odd that Japan already has enough resources stockpiled to last the entire war? I understand a lot of it needs to be moved to the Home Islands, but why even have resource centers on the map given the size of the stockpile?

Jim

Edit: What the net effect of this will be, is Japan will be able to move most of the resources to the home islands in the first couple of years. Were available resources tied more to resource site production, then the home island demand would be a constant factor all game, thus requiring cargo transports bringing resources home all game long. But this huge stockpile allows Japan to get its war needs shipped home in the early years and saves it from late war sub and air interdiction.

Jim
The stockpiled resources that Japan starts the game with are large enough to last about a month, not the duration of the game.

Andrew
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Local Yokel
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RE: Resource pathways

Post by Local Yokel »

Well, as I said, my spreadsheet is a work in progress, but seems to be stirring up an interesting discussion.
 
@Jim, I'm not yet ready to come to firm conclusions, but I suspect you may be underestimating the difficulties in managing the available shipping in order to move adequate quantities of resources to where they are needed.  Mere possession of the tonnage is no solution to the problem if you lack the dock/handling capacity to tranship with the necessary degree of efficiency.
 
I do find it noteworthy that metropolitan Japan enjoys as many resource centres as she does, given the country's dearth of natural resources.  I can see justification for the resource centres in Kyushu and Hokkaido, reflecting the coalfields in those locations.  The big resource centres on Honshu may be more open to question.  There may be a case for a reduction in these and an increase in those located in Manchukuo, which was blessed with substantial coalfields together with major iron ore deposits around Anshan.
 
@Andrew, I agree that stockpiled resources on Honshu have a reach of just over a month, assuming availability of the fuel required for a full draw-down by heavy industry.  But so far as I can tell, the resources generated by the centres on Kyushu, Shikoku and Hokkaido are in each case more than enough to meet the demands of heavy and light industry on those islands and still leave a healthy surplus.  If I've got that wrong, I'd like to know how - I can post the rest of the spreadsheet to show this if need be.
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sval062
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RE: Resource pathways

Post by sval062 »

As all JFB here, I am trying to find a way to deal with transportation issues.

Maybe another way to solve (partially at least) the issue is to produce the maximum near production centers (since the consumption is the same all over the map)

Let's take an example: Toyohara
Ressource center-->520 --> 520*20 = 10 400 ressources/day
LI --> 40 --> 40*15= 600 ressources used each day.

The idea is to expand LI there and close some centers in Honshu (once done). It will decrease the need of transportation which is a key problem and you will have the same level of Hi production.
The same things should be possible for Oil/refinery on the map.

It also means that you have extra possibilities when the war will advance and some centers are destroyed/ damaged to switch between existing centers.

Of course, it is not perfect since it will begin to cost to expand and repair (but after all, I don't think supplies arethe key problem on the beginning of the game).
This will also implies that we should change our mind and not try to use the full production capacity of Japan but a part of it depending on events.
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Local Yokel
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RE: Resource pathways

Post by Local Yokel »

I really wouldn't recommend enlarging light industry for no reason other than the fact that it is an inefficient supply generator relative to heavy industry.

Furthermore, to enlarge the LI at Toyohara is going to cost a down-payment of 4000 supply and a further 40000 supply (which you will have to ship in) to repair the 'damaged' new LI centres. I would rather that supply took the form of ammunition being fired at the enemy.

I think that the problem for Japanese players lies not in expanding their economy but in making optimum use of what they start with.
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RE: Resource pathways

Post by Andrew Brown »

ORIGINAL: Local Yokel
@Andrew, I agree that stockpiled resources on Honshu have a reach of just over a month, assuming availability of the fuel required for a full draw-down by heavy industry.  But so far as I can tell, the resources generated by the centres on Kyushu, Shikoku and Hokkaido are in each case more than enough to meet the demands of heavy and light industry on those islands and still leave a healthy surplus.  If I've got that wrong, I'd like to know how - I can post the rest of the spreadsheet to show this if need be.

You are correct. The Japanese empire, as a whole, has about enough resource production to keep its (unexpanded) industry going. The thing that the empire lacks is oil (as any student of the Pacific War will know).

By the way, regarding the amount of resources generated in Japan proper. To provide a very brief explanation - two reasons why there is a large amount of resource production in Japan proper are: Resources represent more than minerals and coal, they represent all primary production including agriculture. Also, the balance of resource output had to be set so that the shipping requirements were correct. Fewer resources in Japan might have seemed more "correct", but would have led to shipping requirements larger than the Real Life requirements.

Andrew
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