Estimates on AV post shock attack

[RUPD3658]

My opponant crossed the river into Sian and had the following result:

Ground combat at Sian

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 165699 troops, 1939 guns, 16 vehicles, Assault Value = 3304

Defending force 80292 troops, 544 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 2113

Japanese max assault: 2936 - adjusted assault: 582

Allied max defense: 2195 - adjusted defense: 1191

Japanese assault odds: 0 to 1 (fort level 5)


Japanese ground losses:
8624 casualties reported
Guns lost 100
Vehicles lost 5

Allied ground losses:
1577 casualties reported
Guns lost 39

I am considering a shock counter attack next turn but I don't know if it will work. My units are low morale and experience but have 1:1 supplies. The hex is clear.

Can anyone estimate what the defender's AV will be 2 days later? His supplies are coming down the path for Yenen, not the rail line from Homan.

[eloso]

I was a big fan of the chinese shock counter-attack until my entire line collapsed at Liuchow. This caused a wide scale retreat back to Chungking where I've been holding out.

My situation was slightly different at the time. My intel indicated that only 5 units had moved into the hex. There was no river for the Japanese to cross. I wanted to shock attack them to bounce them out of the hex but it didn't work. My units were trashed and the level 5 forts came down within a week.

The downside is if you wait to shock attack he'll most likely be dug in and it won't work. With the amount of troops he has present you'll probably end up in worse shape if you don't cause the retreat.

[Feinder]

He AV is pretty low, only 1/6 of base.  With 0:1 failed shock, he's probably at about 70 disruption.  He's certainly vunlerable.  However, I'll also point out that your own base AV was adjusted downwards by 1/2, and that's with full supplies and 5 forts (which is effectly doubling you).

Consider your own numbers for a second:

2100 base AV x
1x for full supply x
2x for 5 forts x
1x for clear
2x for 100 prep(?)
Nx for ??? (x1/8)
===
1200 adjusted AV

So "something" is not only negating the x2 for for forts, and the x2 for 100 prep (assuming so), but it's basically x1/8 your base AV.

So you're looking at at your base AV of 2100 x 1/8 = 260 when you go on the offensive (just ball park).

I don't konw where that 1/8 is coming from (leaders, bad roll, disruption, fatigue, CAS), but something is tanking your adjusted AV as well.  I'd be careful of the counter-attack.  I'd find out what's causing that 1/8 multiplier for yourself, before counter-attacking. If you're not fully prepped (so no x2 for 100 prep), the mystery modifier is 'only' dragging by 1/4, but that's still enough to suicide any attack.

-F-

[RUPD3658]

Thanks. Prep is between 40-50 since these units bugged out of Yenen last month. Exp ranges from low 40s to mid 60s. Red China command is the senior HQ.

I have 1800 AV worth of troops coming from Homan to help. Hopefully they should turn the tide. If not it is off to Chungking for everyone. My stategy assumes the loss of all of China save Chungking so any Jap units taken out is gravy.

[RUPD3658]

Attack has been ordered for next turn. With the units from Homan the base AV is around 3K. Keeping my fingers crossed that this works.

[engineer]

Hmm, I'd ditto Feinder about the risks of a counter-attack.  If enough time has passed for troops from Homan to arrive (2 days maybe 3?) the Japanese will be able to get their disruption down from ~80% to 50%  and fatigue will improve a bit as well.  They might get a bit more disruption recovery if they've refrained from bombardment attacks on you.  I think they have a good shot at repulsing your attack. 

[RUPD3658]

Almost pulled it off on day 2 but ultimatly failed. 3 more Jap unit have flanked Homan and could move into Sian next trun so I don't think the attack can continue.

Looks like I will lose North China faster than expected. I still feel it was worth the risk since success would have been a major blow to the Jap offensive.

Day 1
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Ground combat at Sian

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 116977 troops, 771 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 3977

Defending force 154635 troops, 1629 guns, 7 vehicles, Assault Value = 2784

Allied max assault: 7000 - adjusted assault: 1118

Japanese max defense: 2238 - adjusted defense: 910

Allied assault odds: 1 to 1


Japanese ground losses:
1303 casualties reported
Guns lost 38

Allied ground losses:
9532 casualties reported
Guns lost 176

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AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 02/24/42




Day 2
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Ground combat at Sian

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 103223 troops, 447 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 2879

Defending force 152647 troops, 1568 guns, 7 vehicles, Assault Value = 2742

Allied max assault: 3182 - adjusted assault: 1668

Japanese max defense: 2256 - adjusted defense: 945

Allied assault odds: 1 to 1


Japanese ground losses:
809 casualties reported
Guns lost 25

Allied ground losses:
5378 casualties reported
Guns lost 45