Surprise at Saipan

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LargeSlowTarget
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Surprise at Saipan

Post by LargeSlowTarget »

While waiting for a PBEM turn (and AE), I'm playing the stock Marianas scenario as Allies against AI - for the first time.

Everything went well, my CVs pounded the airfields and ports and brushed off Japanese air attacks, the bombardment TFs did their work, submarines scouted in the direction of the Palaus for the Japanese fleet, the invasions forces landed ok and three divisions got unloaded to about 80% in two days.
Then I found out that AE replenishment does not work in enemy base hexes, so I sent the bombardment forces back to Eniwetok to replenish ammo- all BBs and CAs plus three dozen DDs. I should have known better...
Left behind at Saipan to finish unloading was the entire force of APs and AKS that can be found on the map in this scenario. All carriers parked one hex offshore to provide LRCAP, ASW, naval search and ground support. But too bad - both AM and PM air phase saw the entire carrier air force grounded by weather except LRCAP over Saipan. Ok, no problem, the force ashore can manage without air support

Then suddenly - in broad daylight out of nowhere enemy surface TFs descended on the accumulated amphib shipping! My heart stopped for 10 seconds or so...

First victim was the TF with the Amphib HQ embarked:

Day Time Surface Combat, near Saipan at 63,64

Japanese Ships
BB Kongo, Shell hits 4
BB Haruna, Shell hits 2
BB Nagato, Shell hits 1
CA Takao
CA Maya
CL Oyodo, Shell hits 1
DD Shimakaze
DD Akitsuki, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Hatsuzuki
DD Naganami
DD Kishinami
DD Okinami
DD Akishimo
DD Nowaki
DD Hatsushimo

Allied Ships
DD Dale, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DD Monaghan, Shell hits 16, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DD Aylwin, Shell hits 11, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
DE Lyman, Shell hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DE Manlove, Shell hits 12, and is sunk
MSW Salute, Shell hits 8, and is sunk
AGC Rockey Mount, Shell hits 9, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk


Allied ground losses:
2465 casualties reported

Bye-bye HQ support....

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Then it was the turn of the TF which had just unloaded the 2nd Marine Division:


Day Time Surface Combat, near Saipan at 63,64


Allied aircraft
no flights


Allied aircraft losses
SOC-3 Seagull: 2 destroyed

Japanese Ships
BB Kongo, Shell hits 44, and is sunk
BB Haruna, Shell hits 37, and is sunk
BB Nagato, Shell hits 33, on fire, heavy damage
CA Takao, Shell hits 9, on fire
CA Maya, Shell hits 14, on fire, heavy damage
CL Oyodo, Shell hits 37, and is sunk
DD Shimakaze, Shell hits 14, and is sunk
DD Akitsuki, Shell hits 21, and is sunk
DD Hatsuzuki, Shell hits 18, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DD Naganami, Shell hits 14, and is sunk
DD Kishinami, Shell hits 24, and is sunk
DD Okinami, Shell hits 14, and is sunk
DD Akishimo, Shell hits 15, and is sunk
DD Nowaki, Shell hits 9
DD Hatsushimo, Shell hits 13, and is sunk

Allied Ships
CL St. Louis, Shell hits 71, and is sunk
DD Albert Grant, Shell hits 12, and is sunk
DD Haggard, Shell hits 13, on fire, heavy damage
DD Hailey, Shell hits 27, and is sunk
DD Hall, Shell hits 26, and is sunk
DD Halligan, Shell hits 31, and is sunk
DD Paul Hamilton, Shell hits 5
DD Haraden, Shell hits 5, and is sunk
DD McDermut, Shell hits 8, on fire
DD Sigsbee, Shell hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
DD Sproston, Shell hits 6
DD Stevens
DD David Taylor, Shell hits 6, on fire
DE Steele, Shell hits 14, and is sunk
DE Tisdale, Shell hits 9, and is sunk
DE Whitman, Shell hits 4, and is sunk
DE Wileman
MSW Oracle, Shell hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
SC SC-1063, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
AP W.A. Holbrook
AP Frederick Funston, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
AP Sheridan
AP Sumter
AP James O'Hara
LSD Ashland, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
LSD Belle Grove, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
LSD Lindenwald
LCI(G) LCI-61, Shell hits 7, and is sunk
LCI(G) LCI-64, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
LCI(G) LCI-65, Shell hits 5, and is sunk
LCI(G) LCI-66, Shell hits 10, and is sunk
LCI(G) LCI-67, Shell hits 6, and is sunk
LCI(G) LCI-68, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
LCI(G) LCI-69, Shell hits 5, and is sunk
LCI(G) LCI-70, Shell hits 4, and is sunk

OUCH!!!!

LCI(G)s enganging BBs with automatic weapons - what a brawl! [:D]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

After that fight, the second Japanese TF apparently got timid:

Day Time Surface Combat at 62,64

Japanese Ships
CA Atago
CA Chokai
CA Myoko, Shell hits 1
CA Haguro, Shell hits 2
CA Mogami
CL Noshiro
DD Wakazuki
DD Shimotsuki
DD Tamanami
DD Fujinami, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Asashimo
DD Hayashimo
DD Isokaze
DD Shigure
DD Satsuki, Shell hits 1, on fire

Allied Ships
DD Haggard, Shell hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
DD Paul Hamilton, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD McDermut, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
DD Sigsbee, Shell hits 5, and is sunk
DD Sproston, Shell hits 1
DD Stevens, Shell hits 1
DD David Taylor, Shell hits 4, on fire
DE Wileman
MSW Oracle, Shell hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
AP W.A. Holbrook
AP Sheridan
AP Sumter
AP James O'Hara
LSD Lindenwald


Luckily, the sacrifice of the tin cans and Elsie Items gunboats triggered the retreat of the Japanese force and saved the other five TFs carrying the remaining elements of the 4th Marine Div, 27th US Inf Div, the Corps Troops (tanks, Eng units) and supplies.

The AI really surpised me on this occasion!
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castor troy
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RE: Surprise at Saipan

Post by castor troy »

What is this? A Knavey? What guns aboard you TF were able to sink IJN BBs? It must be a Knavey...
jumper
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RE: Surprise at Saipan

Post by jumper »

Day time surface combats.. [:-]
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LargeSlowTarget
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RE: Surprise at Saipan

Post by LargeSlowTarget »

What is a "Knavey"? [/align] [/align]The above really happened![/align]
Mistmatz
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RE: Surprise at Saipan

Post by Mistmatz »

Did you watch the replay LST? If so what caused the death of the two BBs and the heavy damage on the third?
This battle looks like quite a number of ammo explosions...
If you gained knowledge through the forum, why not putting it into the AE wiki?

http://witp-ae.wikia.com/wiki/War_in_th ... ition_Wiki

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castor troy
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RE: Surprise at Saipan

Post by castor troy »

how can a CL and those DDs sink those BBs and escorts with guns? [8|] They can´t even penetrate the armor, let alone sink them. What mod is this?
jumper
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RE: Surprise at Saipan

Post by jumper »

I don´t think it is any mod. It is just a day time surface combat result. Day time surface combats are broken from time to time. I have seen british CV which sunk 2 Japanse BBs with its guns and other strange results including both fleets sinking each other to the last ship etc.. It is funny if you play AI, but not when it happens after 2 years in PBEM. It happens only during the day. And not always. Actually it is rare, but it happens.. When certain contitions are met the effectivenes of even the small calibre guns is much higher and without a warning even DD is instantly able to penetrate BBs armour.. A nasty surprise I would say..[;)]
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LargeSlowTarget
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RE: Surprise at Saipan

Post by LargeSlowTarget »

This is the vanilla stock Marianas scenario. I watched the replay of the first battle, lost all hope and 'escaped' out of the second and third battles since I did expect the same one-sided massacres and had no stomach to watch them.[/align]
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Feinder
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RE: Surprise at Saipan

Post by Feinder »

So during the replay, did it actually say the Allied weapons were penetrating the BB belt-deck armor?

That -is- bizarre.
 
I've seen "considerable" damage caused to BBs by (litterally) hundreds of non-penetrating hits that cause fires and did some serious sys damage (I was running tests, so nothing that would likely ever happen in game).  But I'm talking hundreds of hits, not 37, and not sunk.
 
-F-
"It is obvious that you have greatly over-estimated my regard for your opinion." - Me

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pauk
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RE: Surprise at Saipan

Post by pauk »



Just wait guys, wait for Spaminus...he will explain to you - naval combat works perfectly![:'(]


Btw, naval routine will be not changed in AE. Good luck![&o]


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castor troy
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RE: Surprise at Saipan

Post by castor troy »

ORIGINAL: pauk



Just wait guys, wait for Spaminus...he will explain to you - naval combat works perfectly![:'(]


Btw, naval routine will be not changed in AE. Good luck![&o]




Pauk, old friend! I see you´re in a good mood again today! [:D][;)]
mdiehl
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RE: Surprise at Saipan

Post by mdiehl »

I think your result is proof enough that the naval combat system is hopeless broken. A USN TF comprised of that many light ships would have taken the bulk of that IJN TF down with them if the battle had lasted long enough for the US to lose that many ships. In broad daylight the USN was vastly superior at naval tactics and at gunnery, and in broad daylight IJN torpedoes were statistically ineffective (modal and median hit rate of 0%).
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

Didn't we have this conversation already?
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hawker
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RE: Surprise at Saipan

Post by hawker »

Whats the problem?
Everyone knows that CL and DD would sink BB any given day[:D]

If CL and few DDs can sunk and penetrate armor of 3 BBs that is tragedy for game. I mean that is continuous tragedy.
I hope that AE will fix naval combat,along with land combat,along with air combat[;)]

T. will fix this all[&o]
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pauk
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RE: Surprise at Saipan

Post by pauk »

ORIGINAL: castor troy

ORIGINAL: pauk



Just wait guys, wait for Spaminus...he will explain to you - naval combat works perfectly![:'(]


Btw, naval routine will be not changed in AE. Good luck![&o]




Pauk, old friend! I see you´re in a good mood again today! [:D][;)]


I'm in good mood always.... you can call me for coffe when you find spare time, i'm in your city...
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pauk
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RE: Surprise at Saipan

Post by pauk »

ORIGINAL: mdiehl

I think your result is proof enough that the naval combat system is hopeless broken. A USN TF comprised of that many light ships would have taken the bulk of that IJN TF down with them if the battle had lasted long enough for the US to lose that many ships. In broad daylight the USN was vastly superior at naval tactics and at gunnery, and in broad daylight IJN torpedoes were statistically ineffective (modal and median hit rate of 0%).


Yes, how we could forget the fact that Werhner von Braun was irreleveant for US space program....[:D]
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mdiehl
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RE: Surprise at Saipan

Post by mdiehl »

The problem is this section of the AAR:
Japanese Ships
CA Atago
CA Chokai
CA Myoko, Shell hits 1
CA Haguro, Shell hits 2
CA Mogami
CL Noshiro
DD Wakazuki
DD Shimotsuki
DD Tamanami
DD Fujinami, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Asashimo
DD Hayashimo
DD Isokaze
DD Shigure
DD Satsuki, Shell hits 1, on fire

Allied Ships
DD Haggard, Shell hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
DD Paul Hamilton, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD McDermut, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
DD Sigsbee, Shell hits 5, and is sunk
DD Sproston, Shell hits 1
DD Stevens, Shell hits 1
DD David Taylor, Shell hits 4, on fire


By 1944, any USN DD was more mission capable in daylight combat (by which I mean vastly more accurate in naval gunnery) than any IJN unit of any kind, and the accuracy of USN daylight gunnery made any inidvidual USN DD a match for several IJN DD or any one IJN CA.

And it is reasonable to assume that in any daylight action especially against USN light forces there would be NO IJN torpedo hits, because that is the overwhelming central tendency from the actual war.
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

Didn't we have this conversation already?
jumper
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RE: Surprise at Saipan

Post by jumper »

I know I have already posted these before, but they are really my favourites (stock game..):
 
Day Time Surface Combat, near Karachi at 21,3

Japanese Ships
BB Fuso, Shell hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
BB Yamashiro, Shell hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
CA Maya, Shell hits 4, on fire
DD Natsushio, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
DD Nenohi, Shell hits 9, and is sunk
DD Uranami, Shell hits 13, and is sunk
DD Asagiri, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
DD Sagiri, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
DD Satsuki, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
DD Fumizuki, Shell hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Nagatsuki, Shell hits 1
DD Asakaze, Shell hits 4, and is sunk
DD Namikaze, Shell hits 3, and is sunk
DD Numakaze, Shell hits 6, and is sunk
DD Kuretake, Shell hits 4, and is sunk
DD Chidori, Shell hits 2, and is sunk

Allied Ships
CV Illustrious
CV Formidable, Shell hits 2, heavy damage
CLAA Ceres, Shell hits 56, and is sunk
CLAA Caledon, Shell hits 30, on fire, heavy damage
CLAA Van Heemskerck, Shell hits 29, on fire, heavy damage
 
This one is even better:

Day Time Surface Combat, near Tarawa at 85,91

Japanese Ships
BB Yamato, Shell hits 17, and is sunk
BB Ise, Shell hits 3, and is sunk
CA Maya, Shell hits 1, on fire
CA Chokai, Shell hits 3, and is sunk
CA Haguro, Shell hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
CA Nachi, Shell hits 7, and is sunk
CA Ashigara, Shell hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
CA Kinugasa, Shell hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
CA Kako, Shell hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
CL Oyodo, Shell hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
CL Agano
DD Harusame, Shell hits 5, and is sunk
DD Yugiri, Shell hits 5, and is sunk
DD Oboro, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
DD Hatakaze, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
DD Sawakaze, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
DD Tsuga, and is sunk

Allied Ships
CA Vincennes, Shell hits 25, and is sunk
CL Achilles, Shell hits 65, and is sunk
DD Foote, Shell hits 13, and is sunk
DD Fullam, Shell hits 14, and is sunk
DD Hutchins, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
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hawker
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RE: Surprise at Saipan

Post by hawker »

ORIGINAL: mdiehl

The problem is this section of the AAR:
Japanese Ships
CA Atago
CA Chokai
CA Myoko, Shell hits 1
CA Haguro, Shell hits 2
CA Mogami
CL Noshiro
DD Wakazuki
DD Shimotsuki
DD Tamanami
DD Fujinami, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Asashimo
DD Hayashimo
DD Isokaze
DD Shigure
DD Satsuki, Shell hits 1, on fire

Allied Ships
DD Haggard, Shell hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
DD Paul Hamilton, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD McDermut, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
DD Sigsbee, Shell hits 5, and is sunk
DD Sproston, Shell hits 1
DD Stevens, Shell hits 1
DD David Taylor, Shell hits 4, on fire


By 1944, any USN DD was more mission capable in daylight combat (by which I mean vastly more accurate in naval gunnery) than any IJN unit of any kind, and the accuracy of USN daylight gunnery made any inidvidual USN DD a match for several IJN DD or any one IJN CA.

And it is reasonable to assume that in any daylight action especially against USN light forces there would be NO IJN torpedo hits, because that is the overwhelming central tendency from the actual war.

That opinion works perfectly at steakhouse,but hardly here[8|][8|]

@Pauk,of course that von Brown is irrelevant. mdiehl knows that all[:D]
Still,i respect him because he never use any insults like his comrades from steakhouse back in old times

P.S. Kako si ti u zadnje vrime,nisam te cuo sto godina?
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mdiehl
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RE: Surprise at Saipan

Post by mdiehl »

That opinion works perfectly at steakhouse,but hardly here


Actually, it works quite well here. Beyond that, it's supported by the facts. There is no dispute that the modal and median torpedo hit rates for torpedoes fired by the IJN were 0% and 0% respectively. Nor is there any dispute that in 1944 any given Fletcher class DD or other USN DD could register hits in the first salvo on any target withing 14,000 yards and maintain a constant accurate solution regardless of the US or IJN ships speed, bearing, or course. Ya'd think that the action of Samar would be internalized a little, even among the most die hard of IJN worshipers.
@Pauk,of course that von Brown is irrelevant. mdiehl knows that all

I consider it a form of obvious Trolling to imply that I have made claims that I have in fact never made. Therefore I did not respond to Puke's effort. But since you are now aiding and abetting in that lie, it seems I need to reiterate my position.

Von Braun was the program manager for the Apollo project. He was no more the designer of the Saturn V (or any of its stages) or of the Apollo capsule, or the LEM, than Bill Ford is the designer of the Focus. The last major rocket that von Braun designed for NASA was the Redstone. Von Braun's ideas for a Lunar Landing embraced only two possibilities (that is a matter of record). He openly stated in the concept discussions that you could only do either direct ascent (one shot from the earth to the moon from launch to landing with a single spacecraft) or Earth Orbit Rendezvous (smaller spacecraft assemble in Earth orbit and then land directly on the Moon). The eventual winning design concept was Lunar Orbit Rendezvous (which never entered Von Braun's imagination) and the Saturn V in all its component stages, Apollo capsule, and LEM were all designed around the Lunar Orbit Rendezvous approach. The inventor of the Lunar Orbit Rendezvous (and the only single person with a plausible claim to being the "Father" of the Apollo project, OTHER than JFK) was an engineer at Langley named John Houbolt.
Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

Didn't we have this conversation already?
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Erik Rutins
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RE: Surprise at Saipan

Post by Erik Rutins »

ORIGINAL: mdiehl
Therefore I did not respond to Puke's effort. But since you are now aiding and abetting in that lie, it seems I need to reiterate my position.

Personal attacks are not acceptable on this forum. Please keep it civil and consider yourself warned regarding the forum rules.

Regards,

- Erik
Erik Rutins
CEO, Matrix Games LLC


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