Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

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Big B
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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes

Post by Big B »

Just an FYI.,

You don't need house rules prohibiting Corsairs from carriers in the B-Mod, because the corsair which you get in 1943 is not carrier capable in this mod.

The only Corsairs that are carrier capable is the USN variant that comes late in 1944 (or is it early 1945...I'm at work right now and don't have access to the DB)
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
...
As for aircraft, I think we have a house rule prohibiting basing Corsairs on carriers until 1944, so I had to crate them.
...
Andav
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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes

Post by Andav »


Hey Canoerebel ... Just a lurker dropping by to say I have been enjoying this AAR for a while now. Keep up the fine work!

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Canoerebel
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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes

Post by Canoerebel »

9/8/43 to 9/10/43
 
Nothing major has occurred over this period, but still alot going on.
 
Subs near Iwo:  It seems that John has sent every sub he has to the waters around Iwo Jima and Tori Shima.  Here's some of the sightings and action:  RO-34 took four depth charges on the 4th; RO-60 put a torpedo in AO Cimarron (later scuttled) and went under after taking 8 depth charge hits; I-160 put 3 TT into an AK, which went down, and took three depth charges; I-22 tooks some hits; I-123 took 18 hits and went down; RO-33 put a TT into TK Papoose and 3 TT into an LCI, which went under; I-171 sank an LCI; I-155 took several hits from patrolling aircraft.  I've got several ASW TFs working the area, but I'm worried about the possibility of a sub getting a lucky shot against one of my carriers. 
 
Jap Ships:  S-44 took a shot at Yamato at Pagan, just SE of Iwo Jima, but missed.  Where Yamato is, I suspect there the KB be.  John could be marshalling his forces for an all out assault.
 
Iwo Jima:  The minefield seems to have been minimized or eradicated.  Over this period, there were no further hits, but an AK and a DM went down from previous damage.  I have about half my transports docked and unloading (the rest are cruising zig-zags offshore under carrier protection).  To this point, I've had one big combat TF at Iwo (4 slow BBs, a CA, several CLs).  John has had plenty of time to recon this force and plan accordingly, so tonight I'm sending in reinforcements - the combat fleet that the carriers had been following will dock at Iwo.  This force includes three fast BBs, CA Astorie, and a number of CLs and DDs.  Henceforth, the carriers will follow the zig-zagging transports offshore.  The ground troops took a few days off to rest, but will resume attacking the defenders tomorrow.
 
Red Planet (Original):  SigInt revealed 53rd Divsion is at Legaspi.  I think John had figured out my designs on Luzon and had that island garrisoned much more strongly than I had bargained for.  I am very glad I went for Iwo instead.
 
Silver Planet:  John has reacted strongly to the paratroop assault and capture of Siem Reap in Siam.  He has enough troops in the area that he can overwhelm the defenders, so I think I'll cancel those plans I had to air transport in vast numbers of troops.  I'll move in enough that he has to work to take the base, but that's about it.
 
Australia:  SigInt reveals the 18th Division is at Kalgoorlie.  So John still has at least four divisions in Australia.
 
Situation:  The more I look at the map and my position at Iwo Jima, the better situated the Allies appear to be.  Iwo isn't that far from Midway, so that it isn't a logistical nightmare to move to and from these two bases; yet Iwo is far enough from Japanese bases that John's LBA shouldn't be a big factor (so my ships won't be overwhelmed by a combination of carrier-based and LBA).  I have a ton of supplies unloaded already, my troops are prepping for the future, and there are plenty of targets that aren't that far off.  There is no question that my guys intend to move forward rather than backward (IE, I won't be making major moves to take islands to my rear).
 
Thanks:  Thanks to all of you who have posted encouraging comments and well-meant advice.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes

Post by Mistmatz »

Canoerebel, I understand that the allies want to press on forward and use the momentum but I'd be doing this from an established stronghold _including_ a defendable supply path.

Assume there is a carrier battle aoon and the japs win. How can you support Iwo and defend the supply lines in such a case? I think it's clear that Japan will want to use its carriers as long as they still have some teeth, the longer Japan waits the carriers will be more and more uselss. So I'd prepar for that big battle and I'd try to prepare to fight it under unvafourable circumstances because this is what the japanese player will try to achieve.

Even if you'd loose such a CV battle you can go on with the war but it's so much harder without that supply line.

Just my two cents.
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DW
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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes

Post by DW »

Jap Ships: S-44 took a shot at Yamato at Pagan, just SE of Iwo Jima, but missed. Where Yamato is, I suspect there the KB be. John could be marshalling his forces for an all out assault.

I think you're right.

If KB is that close and hasn't already attacked, he's almost certainly waiting for something.

You were trying to force a battle with KB earlier.

Perhaps it's time to force the battle you were looking for earlier before what ever he's waiting for comes to fruition.


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Canoerebel
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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes

Post by Canoerebel »

Hmmm, an interesting situation.
 
As long as the Allies have CV superiority (due to Hellcats), the Japs cannot retake Iwo Jima.  The island is occupied by 8 divisions, CD, artillery, tanks, etc. and all digging in.  The Allies have already landed 130,000 supplies with another 270,000 to be unloaded. 
 
And Iwo is situated to cause maximum discomfort to the Japs, as Allied subs, LBA, and CVs can make quick raids against places like Japan, Formosa, into the Philippine Sea, and the major island chains to the east. Pagan is certainly withint quick strike range, but there were no signs of enemy ships there the turn after my sub took a shot at BB Yamato.  The absence of Yamato, and the possibility John might be striking Iwo, is what prompted me to send the second combat TF to Iwo.
 
Time works against John as far as force parity is concerned, but works against me in that the game is getting along now.  But I believe I'm better served by remaining close to my bastion for a time, waiting to see if John makes a big move (and hopefully makes some mistakes).
 
I'm content to dig in for now, probing now and then in brief "burst" missions.  I won't undertake any major invasions for awhile to allow time to strengthen my position at Iwo (and Chichi and Tori), and to return most of the way to Midway to meet with the next convoy (which will be escorted at first by CV Intrepid, CVL Langley, and a CVE).
 
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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castor troy
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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes

Post by castor troy »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Hmmm, an interesting situation.

As long as the Allies have CV superiority (due to Hellcats), the Japs cannot retake Iwo Jima.  The island is occupied by 8 divisions, CD, artillery, tanks, etc. and all digging in.  The Allies have already landed 130,000 supplies with another 270,000 to be unloaded. 

And Iwo is situated to cause maximum discomfort to the Japs, as Allied subs, LBA, and CVs can make quick raids against places like Japan, Formosa, into the Philippine Sea, and the major island chains to the east. Pagan is certainly withint quick strike range, but there were no signs of enemy ships there the turn after my sub took a shot at BB Yamato.  The absence of Yamato, and the possibility John might be striking Iwo, is what prompted me to send the second combat TF to Iwo.

Time works against John as far as force parity is concerned, but works against me in that the game is getting along now.  But I believe I'm better served by remaining close to my bastion for a time, waiting to see if John makes a big move (and hopefully makes some mistakes).

I'm content to dig in for now, probing now and then in brief "burst" missions.  I won't undertake any major invasions for awhile to allow time to strengthen my position at Iwo (and Chichi and Tori), and to return most of the way to Midway to meet with the next convoy (which will be escorted at first by CV Intrepid, CVL Langley, and a CVE).


hehe, even if the Allied would NOT have Hellcats, the Japanese couldn´t take back Iwo when you have 8 divs there.

do you have torp bombers on Iwo? Lots of them? Don´t know if there are any bombers that can lug a torp out to five hexes in BigB mod but if so, those would be highly recommended as the enemy will stay 4 or 5 hexes off Iwo to go into position for an attack, no matter if a CV TF, surface combat or bombardment TF. And as we all know, bombs just bounce off the major targets and if they hit and penetrate, they tend not to be ship killers.
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Q-Ball
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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes

Post by Q-Ball »

I agreee with previous reader, the sighting of Yamato is likely very key. Either Combined Fleet is there, or is being assembled there. Yamato would not be at Pagan for any reason other than she is preparing to attack you at Iwo. John knows what you have, so he wouldn't attack with much less than everything. The only other possible explanation is that he expects you to attack the Marianas, but if that's the case, she would likely be sitting at Guam or similar, not Pagan.

I also agree with Castor: 8 divisions cannot be defeated on Iwo, even if your CV's are. Even if you have to withdraw the fleet, that island will be held.
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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes

Post by DW »

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

I agreee with previous reader, the sighting of Yamato is likely very key. Either Combined Fleet is there, or is being assembled there. Yamato would not be at Pagan for any reason other than she is preparing to attack you at Iwo. John knows what you have, so he wouldn't attack with much less than everything. The only other possible explanation is that he expects you to attack the Marianas, but if that's the case, she would likely be sitting at Guam or similar, not Pagan.

That's what I'm thinking.

John is probably getting together everything that can float for a single, massive blow.

A carrier raid down in that direction might provide the chance to destroy a portion of the Combined Fleet before John has all his forces assembled.

I also agree with Castor: 8 divisions cannot be defeated on Iwo, even if your CV's are. Even if you have to withdraw the fleet, that island will be held.

I agree. Iwo Jima is safe no matter how the naval battle turns out.

John might be able to land troops, but he won't be able to take it.

I can't imagine that John has enough force available to defeat eight well supplied allied divisions.

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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes

Post by Nemo121 »

The most viable course of action right now is NOT for Japan to mount an amphibious invasion of Iwo Jima. It just needs to interdict the supply lines, close the airfield ( and keep it closed ) and then bomb the supply base to nothingness. 8 Division in impregnable positions on an atoll with no bullets and no transport off the atoll are as useless as if every soldier in them were dead.
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Q-Ball
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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes

Post by Q-Ball »

Nemo, I would agree, that's the proper strategy. He has to close the airbase, and cut it off. Dan brought a pile of supplies though, I don't think John can cut if off long enough for them to run out. The best he can probably do is to damage/shut down the airstrip, so that Dan can't use it as a forward base without massive CV support.
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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes

Post by Mistmatz »

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball
...

I also agree with Castor: 8 divisions cannot be defeated on Iwo, even if your CV's are. Even if you have to withdraw the fleet, that island will be held.


Iwo is not need to be held, Iwo needs to be a staging point and a safe haven for aircraft, vessels and combat troops alike.

If the allies are pressed hard and just hold Iwo the war is basically lost or at least not to be won in time. Iwo needs to play the most active role for the next years in order to beat the rising sun.
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pat.casey
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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes

Post by pat.casey »

If the allies landed a mass of high end fighters though (say corsairs and thuds), is it plausible to break the airbase via airstrikes alone? Seems like 200 corsairs on CAP would eat any conceivable strike. So the Japanese would need to to knock the base down with a massive bombardment first, then keep it suppressed with air power from that point on.

Seems like the allies can counter that though just by parking a sizable SAG group and a mass of PT boats on IWO. Even if the IJN fights their way through the SAG group, they'll be short on ops points and the bombardment isn't going to be all that effective.

Point being I suppose, that I'm not seeing how to get the airfield closed w/o the allies doing you a willing favor.
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Q-Ball
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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes

Post by Q-Ball »

Per Castor's earlier point, he can bombard it. Dan needs a torpedo bomber that can carry torps out to 5 hexes; at that point, John can only bombard it with CA's. 200 fighters would knock anything down, but that would preclude having anything else.

I don't know Allied A/C ranges in Big-B. Can the Beaufort carry a torp that far?
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castor troy
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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes

Post by castor troy »

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

The most viable course of action right now is NOT for Japan to mount an amphibious invasion of Iwo Jima. It just needs to interdict the supply lines, close the airfield ( and keep it closed ) and then bomb the supply base to nothingness. 8 Division in impregnable positions on an atoll with no bullets and no transport off the atoll are as useless as if every soldier in them were dead.


I would have 500+ engineers and probably 200 eng vehicles (= another 800 engineers) on the island (which is an ISLAND not an atoll btw) and this would make it impossible to close the airfield. Lots of flak (from base forces, and dedicated AA units) and 80 Corsairs on Cap in the air every day and all the Japanese can do is kill themselve over the island. This is how the game goes, every other speculation is nice, but that´s not possible in the game.

And I do expect the Allied to have such a force I described on the island.

The best thing for the Japanese is to stay AWAY from the island as this base will grow more and more dangerous every turn.
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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes

Post by DW »

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

The most viable course of action right now is NOT for Japan to mount an amphibious invasion of Iwo Jima. It just needs to interdict the supply lines, close the airfield ( and keep it closed ) and then bomb the supply base to nothingness. 8 Division in impregnable positions on an atoll with no bullets and no transport off the atoll are as useless as if every soldier in them were dead.


I agree.

I believe John is preparing a single massive blow aimed at forcing the withdrawal of Canoerebel's carrier forces so he can isolate Iwo Jima and pound it to smithereens.

I think ceding the initiative to John, allowing him time to get his forces organized for such a blow, letting him launch it when he's ready and only reacting to it when it comes is something of a mistake.

Considering John's style of play as has been related in this AAR, odds are low that John had all the forces required for such an attack already concentrated.

That would explain the seeming lack-luster response to the Iwo Jima invasion on John's part.

He needs to get the Combined Fleet concentrated.

As Canoerebel noted when his sub attacked Yamato, the probability that John's concentration point has been identified is high.

As John's concentration point has likely been identified, and as it's also likely that it's currently manned by only a portion of the Combined Fleet, it seems to me that an possible opportunity has been presented to destroy the Combined Fleet piecemeal, before all of John's forces are in position.

Such an attack would have the added benefit of helping to retain the initiative that was gained with the Iwo Jima invasion.









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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes

Post by Nemo121 »

Canoerebel has failed to consider several important factors ( both players have during this operation albeit in different aspects of the operation ). Principal among these is that while he has something like 400,000 tons of supplies available the BASE cannot store such a huge amount of supplies. Remember the spoilage rules? I certainly do and they will apply to ruinous effect here.
 
Castor Troy, assume that that island can hold a maximum of 50,000 tons of supply without spoilage ( I am unsure how big the port is but the airfield is only Size 4 ) and then assume he bombs the base. You will repair it at the cost of 2,600 tons of supply PER DAY. Sure he'd need to hit it really hard every day BUT once he hits it hard once and closes it the serviceability of your fighters will fall such that even if you keep the field open it won't be defended by nearly the CAP you'd imagine. I'm not sure about John but trust me when I say that I could certainly close this base and make those 1300 engineers a liability for you rather than an asset.
 
 
In any case this is an interesting situation but I think too many people are making assumptions without actually examining the exingent, objective realities of the underlying situation. When you do that things which were strong can still be very strong but might have surprising weaknesses.
 
Canoerebel, I'm not seeking to criticise unnecessarily. I am simply seeking to interject a bit of objective analysis and point out some issues which I feel you may have overlooked. If you prefer me not to post then I will happily cease doing so.
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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes

Post by castor troy »

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Canoerebel has failed to consider several important factors ( both players have during this operation albeit in different aspects of the operation ). Principal among these is that while he has something like 400,000 tons of supplies available the BASE cannot store such a huge amount of supplies. Remember the spoilage rules? I certainly do and they will apply to ruinous effect here.

Castor Troy, assume that that island can hold a maximum of 50,000 tons of supply without spoilage ( I am unsure how big the port is but the airfield is only Size 4 ) and then assume he bombs the base. You will repair it at the cost of 2,600 tons of supply PER DAY. Sure he'd need to hit it really hard every day BUT once he hits it hard once and closes it the serviceability of your fighters will fall such that even if you keep the field open it won't be defended by nearly the CAP you'd imagine. I'm not sure about John but trust me when I say that I could certainly close this base and make those 1300 engineers a liability for you rather than an asset.


In any case this is an interesting situation but I think too many people are making assumptions without actually examining the exingent, objective realities of the underlying situation. When you do that things which were strong can still be very strong but might have surprising weaknesses.

Canoerebel, I'm not seeking to criticise unnecessarily. I am simply seeking to interject a bit of objective analysis and point out some issues which I feel you may have overlooked. If you prefer me not to post then I will happily cease doing so.


While your posts are highly interesting to read, they are often more about reality than what´s happening in the game. You mention spoilage... spoilage is a JOKE, there won´t be any spoilage at Iwo. Don´t know what size it is at the moment, but if it´s already combined port and airfield a level 4 or 5 then there´s 0 spoilage!!! If it´s smaller, then the spoilage isn´t worth mentioning either. As you mention that the airfield is already size 4, then I guess port is 1 or two, means 5 or 6 combined size, spoilage is minimal if he has landed 100.000 supply.

And while I don´t know how much supply Canoerebel has brought with him, 40.000 seems a bit low. I would store 150.000 supply there or even more and spoilage wouldn´t be a problem because I would build up the base to max size in no time with my 1000+ engineers. And now the big hammer for you: REPAIRING THE AIRFIELD DOES NOT USE UP A SINGLE POINT OF SUPPLY!!! [8|][X(] I couldn´t believe it myself but I was sure about that already for a loong time and just recently AndyMac gave the confirmation that repairs don´t need a single supply point. Only base BUILDING needs supply.

But we totally agree in that it´s a very interesting situation at the moment. [:D] Still, if I would be the Japanese, I would stay away from this base, even if that would mean big trouble. Losing half of my Navy would mean more trouble as there would be nothing to stop an ivasion of the Philipines thaen.
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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes

Post by Kereguelen »

Castor's statement is absolutely correct.

If combined base-size is 5, up to 80,000 supplies are not subject to spoilage (if 6 = 113,000; if 7 = 152,000), thus spoilage should be no real problem here.

And base repairs do (indeed) not cost any supplies (only construction needs supplies).
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RE: Tip-Toeing through a minefield wearing iron galoshes

Post by castor troy »

ORIGINAL: Kereguelen

Castor's statement is absolutely correct.

If combined base-size is 5, up to 80,000 supplies are not subject to spoilage (if 6 = 113,000; if 7 = 152,000), thus spoilage should be no real problem here.

And base repairs do (indeed) not cost any supplies (only construction needs supplies).


thanks! I will remember this post, as finally someone is of the same oppinion I am. A rare occasion! [;)]
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