AI for MWiF - Germany

[trees]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: Froonp

set the crop to the horses early on

[&:] [&:] [&:] What does this mean ?

A riding crop is what jockeys carry - a form of a whip.

To set the crop to the horses means to whip them - though not necessarily viciously, but with determination.

In the context it was used, the idea is for the Axis to go for immediate territorial gains without regard to US Entry.

Steve figured out my old-timey metaphor, though I wasn't thinking too much about US Entry. What I meant was Patrice's post mentioned decisions for the Axis about the Med, and this touches on a basic approach to the game that the Axis must decide upon. If you are attacking Russia you can go all out in that direction, or you can use some assets expanding the Italian defensive perimeter. You can sprint out of the blocks to build a lead or you can pick a steady pace for the whole marathon. Japan has similar basic decisions to make; the economic goodies lie in one direction while the defensive perimeter against the US is the other way. As a couple other posters noted, Malta's main use for the Axis comes later when it is time to defend Italy. It does make a good fleet base for the Italians but it is not critical. I don't like to use it for the CW fleet until air superiority has been attained, it's rather vulnerable and with limited overseas supply it might not always be the best place to return to base. Now the CW player might not even be looking at it, preferring a large BEF to slow down the Germans vs. using some forces to defend Malta.

[lavisj]

ORIGINAL: Froonp
D.IV. France first
This is a high risk variation on the C.I (USSR First) Strategy. If France doesn't fall early, the Axis is doomed.
D.IV.1. France 39
D.IV.2. Poland 39/40
As soon as France falls, the Wermarcht turns back eastwards, quickly enough to defeat the Poles as soon as possible and be ready for the meat of the game, USSR.
D.IV.3. USSR 40/41
D.IV.4. Sideshow in the Med
Led by the Italians with some German support

Patrice, as I am trying this very strategy in my game (and although it seems that France first, then poland, then Russian campaign 40) is what will happen, I think that it is more a fluke than anything, and that this strategy should be more adapted to a variation of the Med Strategy.

The reason is that for a France Frist / Barb. 40, the schedule is very tight.
1. France must fall no later than N/D 39 and Poland no later than M/A 40 for a M/J 40 attack on Russia. Of course the attack could be delayed to J/A 40, but even then it is tight.
2. Russia can easily forbid such an attack by stuffing his border and calling back a couple of his Siberian Units.

It is therefore unlikely that the France will be followed by a Russia 1940, and the more logical step would be to go after Spain and Gibraltar (unless of course things go well and Russia is nice enough to let you do it).

Of course the advantage of an early fall of France are obvious, more BP and more ressources that can be LL to an active Italy earlier. Beyond that, the benefit is minimal, because the conquest of Poland requires a large investment of units in JF and MA 40.

Now I will let you know later how the Russian campaign in 1940 goes, and if it can be done, maybee the risk is worth it?

Just my 2 cents
Jerome

Just my 2 cents.

[Jimm]

Currently doing a DOD3 game as Germany. France opportunitistically taken 1937-8 (oops maginot line left open....) but current situation ND 1939 US just in war vs Germany only, CW still neutral. Russia aligned Turkey, Free France in Syria, POland free and looking more threatened by Russia than Germany.

just shows how difficult AI will be to program if we ever get a DOD add on...

[lavisj]

Barbarossa 1940 after France first:
As promised I am letting you know how the Barbarossa 1940 went..... well, it was devastating. We are in the middle of M/J 1941 and Russia is crumbeling in the Urals with only 8 units in the area. So, Russia I think is as good as dead. I have been able to divert large amount of forces to the West (forced to, since the US has been in the war since S/O 40). But no reinforcement has been needed  in Russia since the end of the summer of 40 except for 3-4 armors/mechs.

So, if the France first can be followed by a Barb 1940 it will win the game for the axis. So this should be an oportunity that Germany should look for.
In the case of a France first, Germany will have to make the decision in N/D 39 wether to go after Russia or England and/or Spain. In my case, I wasn't fully ready in M/J 40, which is that Poland had just fallen, but I had no impulse to properly deploy the units on the border, but even then, Russia was unable to stop the german steamroller until the Asian map was reached, and even then, only because of weather and some incredibly lucky rolls.

So, I think that if the computer goes for a France first, he should be looking at the russian N/D 39 setup and wether Russia will be able to stuff by M/J 40 or not..... unlikely unless he already started.

This also means for the Russian AI, that if Germany deploys for a France first, he MUST stuff the border ASAP, and this will require a couple of units from Asia to be railed to the Polish border (which requires times). For Russia not to stuff in this case is inviting disaster.

my 2 cents
Jerome

[Froonp]

No offense meant, but may I also add that this particular devastating result was helped by having somehow "cooperative" CW and US, as you had in your game IIRC. Am I wrong saying that If you had had a more competent CW player, it could have been a different story ? It seems to me that if the US went to war in S/O 40, Italy should not have survived 1941 alive.

Anyway, I think that this shows that when you've defeated France, the sooner you attack Russia the better, even if it is latter than M/J 40.

Also, I think that your conclusion about the Russian stuffing the border might be right.
Maybe this can also be widened to : The Russian should always try to stuff the border when the German is away, and only change his mind when he sees that the German will beat his stuff, and when there is enough time to fall back to deep defenses. It's only an idea out of thin air, I'm not a specialized Russian player.

[lavisj]

Patrice,
 
You are correct that the CW has been a help, and the US is not doing much [actually our CW is improving his game quickly]. This is why I have not talked much about what happened outside Russia.
But even an active CW player with good US support could not do much in 1941 to prevent the fall of Russia. It is true that Italy could be under pressure, and pushed back into the Italian Sea Zone (instead of taking Malta, Egypt and India as in our game), BUT considering that every land and air reinforcement from Germany is not really necessary in Russia past J/A 40, all those troops can be used to bolster Italy (In our game, Italy is actually garrisoned mostly with German units). Basically only 4 movers or above are sent to Siberia. And France can be pretty well defended. But mostly by J/F 1941 German production is impressive. [base of 35] And that should allow Germany to build out its airforce quickly which will make Italy a very tough nut to crack. The core of my army in Russia has not changed since M/A 40 except the 3 ARM and MECH sent as reinforcements.
Besides, all those Russian ressources allow for  massive lend lease to Italy, which allows Italy to have full production for most of 1940 and all of 1941. This will make for a tough nut to crack for the CW even with strong US support.
 
Also, even with our very aggressive play as the axis, I think that a US entering the war in S/O 40 is a flucke, and should not happen very often. Therefore that would seriously limit the ability of the CW to conquer Italy. If you combine that with an agressive sub warfare in the fall-winter of 40-41, you will limit CW hability to react.
 
So, even if I agree with your premise (that my CW and US adversary made many mistakes), I believe that a Barb 40 is a winner IF France has fallen in a France first, regardless of what the CW can do. After all, even if Italy falls in 1941, Russia also falls in 1941, and I would believe that Allied troops in Europe would be in serious trouble when in 1941-42, the entire German army (except the garrisons in Russia) turns back west to expell them. But I still do not believe it would be easy for the CW to conquer Italy.
 
Basically, I do not believe possible for the CW and US to force Germany to withdraw enough troops from Russia to prevent the fall of Russia in a Barb 40 scenario. The only thing that was making our game dicey was the very early US entry into the war... otherwise the game was over by J/A 40.
 
Now, of course I only base my analysis from a single experience, so if others tried the same strategy with different results, let me know.
 
Jerome
 
PS: No offense taken whatsoever

[lomyrin]

Most certainly a 40 Barbarossa almost always spells doom for Russia. The real question is why was such a war possible? Russia absolutely can, and has to, garrison against Germany  so that a 40 Barbarossa is not possible.  That still should have the German AI take advantage of a Russia that for some reason has not safeguarded its border. A Russia tied down in Manchuria against Japan might be something the German AI can take into consideration.
 
Lars

[lavisj]

In our case, Russia only saw it coming too late, and had no time to stuff.
The problem for Russia is that it seems (if I did not screw up the math) that even if Russia moves all of its European units towards the border AND its production, it is dicey wether Germany can break the pact or not in M/A 40. For Russia to prohibit Germany for making the attack possible he needs ALL European units AND a couple from the Asian map. That means that Russia must start very early to move its units up, and that it can not do anything meaningfull in the meantime (Rumania / Persia etc.....).

But I agree that in the case of a German deployment against France initially, Russia should do this all out stuffing until he is sure Germany goes somewhere else.

[c92nichj]

France need to hold out until atleast M/J '40 any other scenario spells doom to the allied player. Thats why I refuse to play suprised zoc if applied in '39 against the low countries.

Also always blockade the north Sea with CW and keep CW troops on transport so they can enter Rotterdam or Antwerp, keep those troops under CW air protection.

Main balancing point in WIF I have a problem with is France falls to easily in '39 france is to tough in '40 and Russia to weak in '41.

Not sure what set of options that would weaken france but strengthen Russia.

[Froonp]

You are correct that the CW has been a help, and the US is not doing much [actually our CW is improving his game quickly]. This is why I have not talked much about what happened outside Russia.
But even an active CW player with good US support could not do much in 1941 to prevent the fall of Russia. It is true that Italy could be under pressure, and pushed back into the Italian Sea Zone (instead of taking Malta, Egypt and India as in our game), BUT considering that every land and air reinforcement from Germany is not really necessary in Russia past J/A 40, all those troops can be used to bolster Italy (In our game, Italy is actually garrisoned mostly with German units).

By loosing nearly all his sealift, the CW gave you the possibility of fighting only one war at a time, that's why it is so successful, plus also because your russian seems also to have lost nearly all his factories in your advance.

Putting Italy under pressure, especially with an US entering the war in S/O 40, is not only absorbing German reinforcements, but it also absorbs German activities limits, which did not happen in your game, giving you a free ride into Russia.

Lots of things can be done by the CW in 41, when he have all his teeth, that can divert both reinforcements, activity limits and attention of Germany from Russia. As the CW for example in one game, with the US, took out Denmark, entered the Baltic and invaded / paradropped into Poland & the Baltic States. The German, threatened into being cut out from supply sources counter attacked and did push us back to the sea, but it gave an important relief to the Russian, which was all he needed to stop the German offensive in Russia.

[Froonp]

The problem for Russia is that it seems (if I did not screw up the math) that even if Russia moves all of its European units towards the border AND its production, it is dicey wether Germany can break the pact or not in M/A 40. For Russia to prohibit Germany for making the attack possible he needs ALL European units AND a couple from the Asian map. That means that Russia must start very early to move its units up, and that it can not do anything meaningfull in the meantime (Rumania / Persia etc.....).

I'm quite surprised by this.
I would have though that, given that the troops defensive garrison value is doubled in 1940, and that the German Army is not THAT big in 1940, it was quite easy for the Russian to block a 1940 DoW, especially in the case you cite of "if Russia moves all of its European units towards the border AND its production", but I haven't done any math about it.

[lavisj]

ORIGINAL: Froonp
By loosing nearly all his sealift, the CW gave you the possibility of fighting only one war at a time, that's why it is so successful, plus also because your russian seems also to have lost nearly all his factories in your advance.

I agree there. I was able to fight the Russians without interference. But I still forced myself to take navals and airs in order to maintain pressure on the CW.

Putting Italy under pressure, especially with an US entering the war in S/O 40, is not only absorbing German reinforcements, but it also absorbs German activities limits, which did not happen in your game, giving you a free ride into Russia.

Yes, the biggest drain that it could have been would have been on air limits for sending planes into the Sea Zone. The defense of Italy itself requires mostly ground supports and land movements which are no problems. And as I said before, that would probably put Italy into a very defensive position.

Lots of things can be done by the CW in 41, when he have all his teeth, that can divert both reinforcements, activity limits and attention of Germany from Russia. As the CW for example in one game, with the US, took out Denmark, entered the Baltic and invaded / paradropped into Poland & the Baltic States. The German, threatened into being cut out from supply sources counter attacked and did push us back to the sea, but it gave an important relief to the Russian, which was all he needed to stop the German offensive in Russia.

But are you talking about a 1941 Barbarossa or 1940? In any case, I do not know with certainty wether I am right or not. It is only my guess based on the available units I had to garrison the West. Denmark is currently garrisoned with 3 units supported by 1 good FTR and 2 Bombers. France is strongly garrisoned and has lots of air cover. Italy has 5 german units in it and 2 german planes. All I am saying is I can accept the Italian set back if that means conquering Russia, while the France / Denmark coast can be garrisoned enough to deter or contain an invasion.
I think you are right though that with the US entering the war in S/O 40, CW + US could have done lots of damages if they had prepared adequately for a major offensive against Germany in M/J 41 (I was expecting it, and think I was ready for it), but in most games the US will not be in the war (or barely in the war) at that time. But really when the summer of 41 hits, the Russian army was already mauled beyond repair. and having railed only 5 factories to Siberia (with only 3 usable), he could not build up..... but this is what a 1940 Barbarossa does, the Russian has no way to effectively delay the German advance.

But to tell you the truth, you are bringing strong arguments and my game experience being very limited (especially compared to yours), I can only offer what I will call a perception. I also feel that the France First / Barb 40 has not been experienced by many (if any) this is why I wanted to share the experiment. I agree that it would have been a more interesting report had the CW/US couple been played by more experienced player. (But then again, I am not an experienced player either).

Jerome

[lavisj]

ORIGINAL: Froonp
I'm quite surprised by this.
I would have though that, given that the troops defensive garrison value is doubled in 1940, and that the German Army is not THAT big in 1940, it was quite easy for the Russian to block a 1940 DoW, especially in the case you cite of "if Russia moves all of its European units towards the border AND its production", but I haven't done any math about it.

So was I when I first looked at it:
But the Russian Setup in Europe is as follow:
1 HQ-I, 1 MECH, 2 INF, 2 GAR, 1 CAV, 4 planes and 2 div for a garrison value of 13.
If you add to that the available production for stuffing, that is the productions of S/O 39 and N/D 39 (subsequent are only produced in M/J and can not make it to the border), you can increase the garison by only 5 points (Russia only builds at 8 in 1939). So the grand total for Russia would be 18 points.

Germany starts (excluding garrison and Militia units) with a potential of 57.5 points (including the reinforcements already on the spiral). In order to break the pact it needs 18*4 which is 72 points. So it is missing 15 points.
Considering it would have the SS Paris militia, it only need to build 13 garrison points by M/J 40 (as Konigsberg is in range of the border). Considering Germany has 2 ARM and 2 MECH in its force pool, that is already 8 garison points for 22 BP. This leaves more than enough to build the extra 5 points.

So if Russia puts all of its European force and its reinforcements on the polish border, he will still get creamed. In order for Russia to adequately stuff he needs a few of the units that start on the Asian map. And in order to do that he needs at least two turns. So he needs to start railing in J/F. Also since J/F and M/A can be very short (5 moves total for both turns in our previous game), he needs to start stuffing almost right away. As I said that means that he leaves Leningrad empty, Odessa empty, that he does not claim Roumania (otherwise as the german you force him to declare war, and then Germany is sure to break the pact).

So, here you have my math....... basically, a France First means the Russian player must prepare for the worst from the start.

Jerome

[coregames]

ORIGINAL: lomyrin

Most certainly a 40 Barbarossa almost always spells doom for Russia.

Why? A DoW requires giving Russia a year of extra income, 14 reserve land units after you declare war, and German troops not redeployed from France yet (even if France does fall early). The German advantage over the Russians is much greater in '41 than '40, with their superior income and all those extra troops from France ready to roll in the first clear weather impulse of the DoW turn. Also, the benefits of the surprise impulse are enhanced by a larger force. And don't forget, if the Germans head East with too much force, the CW will create a beach head and expand it.

[lomyrin]

in 40 the Russians simply do not have enough units to hold any kind of front and with Rumania and Finland to keep the flanks busy the Russians have no choice but to perform a rapid retreat to save at least a few core units and HQ's for later on. Even with a not that numerous German force they will rapidly take many Russian factories that could not be railed out in time and capture many resources in Russia.

I have personally seen 2 such games, one in which I tried in vain to defend Russia after we had agreed on performing a 40 Barbarossa,( I as the Russian then withdrew from garrison points to allow the DoW).

In the other game the Russians had a few units in a posture threatening Manchuria. allowing the necessary Garison to DoW by Germany. By July 40 Moscow and Stalingrad had fallen and when Swerdlovsk fell in summer of 42 the Russians gave up, having already lost all of the Caucasus. The German and Italian production was very large at that time and the Allies would have a very difficult time in the west. As the German I had a very fine time.

Lars

[coregames]

ORIGINAL: lomyrin

...the Russians have no choice but to perform a rapid retreat to save at least a few core units and HQ's for later on.

This assumes the Russians are set up near the border with Germany. In the games you mention, were the Russians set up close to the border? If so, Germany just capitalized on their mistake. If Germany has the garrison to DoW anyway, Russia should set up behind the Dvina and Dnieper rivers, relying on a few reserves and perhaps a garrison or two as speed bumps to prevent a rapid advance. Russia has enough force to defend these lines, with the Pripet Marshes pinning the middle. These are the positions Russia would retreat to anyway; might as well start there and conserve forces. The extra .5 production multiple will help the Russians survive against the limited force the Germans can redeploy from France in time for the attack. As others have pointed out, such an early DoW also means the CW will be given a free hand to open an early second front.

There are merits to a 1940 attack, but also drawbacks. I don't think it's so clear-cut as to say such a move spells almost certain doom for the Russians.

[Froonp]

This assumes the Russians are set up near the border with Germany. In the games you mention, were the Russians set up close to the border? If so, Germany just capitalized on their mistake.

Yes, but if the Russian want to prevent the Germans to reach the necessary garrison ration to DoW them, they need to deploy forward in early 40, at least to try to prevent the DoW, don't they ?

Even if Jérôme (lavisj) did the math, and that the math give the advantage to the Germans, we all know that time is needed for the German to put all his garrison points on the border. France needs to fall in N/D 39 att the latest, for a properly placed German army in M/J 40 (at least this is my estimation for a 41 Barb, that is the German must have finished in the west in N/D 40 at the latest to be ready in M/J 41).

N/D is even later than latest IMO, so if the German are not 100% properly deployed in M/J 40, isn't it a good thing that the Russian is ready to take advantage of that ?

[coregames]

ORIGINAL: Froonp

Yes, but if the Russian want to prevent the Germans to reach the necessary garrison ration to DoW them, they need to deploy forward in early 40, at least to try to prevent the DoW, don't they ?

I agree that if the Russians can prevent a threatened DoW in '40 with certainty, they may be well-advised to do so. I was just commenting on the statement that a '40 attack almost always crushes the Russians. Germany has plenty of reasons not to try an attack in '40, even if France falls very early.

[CBoehm]

If france falls early I would be much more concerned about the possibility of Ge advancing through Spain to seize GIB in time to redeploy and do a 41 barb ....than a 40 barb ...also IMO if USSR sees this coming they SHOULD be able to hold the garrison no problem but I havent done the math on this yet. (ofcause things might be different if USSR has allowed itself to be bugged down vs. JP )

[lavisj]

Ok, so if we keep it in line with the subject the thread, which is AI:
German AI:
Assuming the German AI went for a France First and this France First was succesfull (France falls in N/D 40 or is going to fallin N/D 40) then:
    1. The AI should evaluate the ability of Russia to successfully stuff the border, Basically if Russia has not started yet, it is unlikely it will.
    2. Then it can decide to go for a Barbarossa 40 or not. As was said previously, there are plenty of other options.
 
From the Russian perspective we agree that to be attacked in 1940, is very bad for Russia, at the very least it can very extremely dangerous, and should probably avoided at all cost. Since Russia can guarantee the garrison ratio. the AI should probably do so if Germany does a France first.
 
I would even contend that it would be much easier to capitalize on a Russia AI in a Barb 40 than a player Russia, as I doubt an AI can be equivalent to a good player. Therefore an AI should never allow a Barb 40 to happen.
 
I have enjoyed all the different view points brought up in this debate. To conclude I would like to say that as Germany I would probably not try it again as the timetable is very strained for it to succeed.