What if the Soviets are ALWAYS active?

[akdreemer]

ORIGINAL: witpqs


My main point is that I think the SU should have freedom to maneuver within its borders. I do not think players should be forced to play with 'SU may attack if it wants to' - that house rule should be a choice of the two players.

Well this is really the crux of the discussion. It should be left to the individual players to decide and not fostered on everyone as some unwanted smelly wet dog.

[Kereguelen]

ORIGINAL: treespider

From my copy of Guderians Blitzkrieg II by the Gamers ....the following Soviet Rifle Divisions are listed as reinforcements (not listed are the numerous Cav Div and Airborne Corps and Tank Brigades also provided in the OOB. The designers of this game also used Sharp as a reference and provide a decent discussion of Soviet tank brigades in the designer notes.

Oct 8, 41 - 316th
Oct 12, 41 - 32nd, 238th, 312th
Oct 19, 41 - 323rd, 324th, 340th, 322nd, 325th, 331st, 326th
Oct 22, 41 - 93rd
Oct 29, 41 - 78th
Nov 8, 41 -
Nov 12, 41 - 328th, 330th 357th, 415th, 82nd Mech Div,
Nov 15, 41 -
Nov 22, 41 - 239th, 348th, 87th
Nov 26, 41 - 354th
Nov 29, 41 -
Dec 1, 41 - 365th, 371st, 379th
Dec 5, 41 - 350th, 363,
Dec 8, 41 - 201 Lat, 342nd, 373rd, 334th, 344th, 359th, 391st
Dec 12, 41 - 241st, 352nd, 375th
Dec 15, 41 - 329th, 356, 336
Dec 19, 41 - 338, 358, 360
Dec 22, 41 - 346, 387, 134,385

I imagine without checking other sources that a number of these 47 divisions originated in the Far East and could possibly be the same units to which Clark is referring. Perhaps Sharp can shed some light.

Of those divisions only three came from the FE: 78th, 239th, and 401st (Central Asia and Siberia MD's have nothing to do with the FE). All left the FE before Oct 18th 1941.

List shows the Military District where the "Moscow" divisions were formed:

Central Asia MD: 312th, 316th, 385th, 387th, 391st
Orel MD: 323rd, 325th, 329th, 331st
Moscow MD: 201st Latvian, 322nd, 324th, 326th, 328th, 330th, 342nd
Volga MD: 334th, 336th, 338th, 340th, 344th, 346th, 348th, 350th, 352nd, 354th, 356th, 358th, 360th
Kiev MD: 87th (destroyed Sept 41, reformed near Kursk in Nov)
Kharkov MD: 134th (wiped out 10th Oct 41)
Siberia MD: 93rd (pre-war)
Urals MD: 357th, 359th, 363rd, 365th, 371st, 373rd, 375th, 379th

241st was formed from 28th Tank Division (NW Front)

Far Eastern MD:
78th (pre-war) - arrived Western Front 31st Oct 1941
239th (reformed Aug 41) - arrived WF 21st Nov 1941
415th (raised Sept 41 at Vladivostok) - arrived WF mid-November

[treespider]

ORIGINAL: Kereguelen

ORIGINAL: treespider

From my copy of Guderians Blitzkrieg II by the Gamers ....the following Soviet Rifle Divisions are listed as reinforcements (not listed are the numerous Cav Div and Airborne Corps and Tank Brigades also provided in the OOB. The designers of this game also used Sharp as a reference and provide a decent discussion of Soviet tank brigades in the designer notes.

Oct 8, 41 - 316th
Oct 12, 41 - 32nd, 238th, 312th
Oct 19, 41 - 323rd, 324th, 340th, 322nd, 325th, 331st, 326th
Oct 22, 41 - 93rd
Oct 29, 41 - 78th
Nov 8, 41 -
Nov 12, 41 - 328th, 330th 357th, 415th, 82nd Mech Div,
Nov 15, 41 -
Nov 22, 41 - 239th, 348th, 87th
Nov 26, 41 - 354th
Nov 29, 41 -
Dec 1, 41 - 365th, 371st, 379th
Dec 5, 41 - 350th, 363,
Dec 8, 41 - 201 Lat, 342nd, 373rd, 334th, 344th, 359th, 391st
Dec 12, 41 - 241st, 352nd, 375th
Dec 15, 41 - 329th, 356, 336
Dec 19, 41 - 338, 358, 360
Dec 22, 41 - 346, 387, 134,385

I imagine without checking other sources that a number of these 47 divisions originated in the Far East and could possibly be the same units to which Clark is referring. Perhaps Sharp can shed some light.

Of those divisions only three came from the FE: 78th, 239th, and 401st (Central Asia and Siberia MD's have nothing to do with the FE). All left the FE before Oct 18th 1941.

List shows the Military District where the "Moscow" divisions were formed:

Central Asia MD: 312th, 316th, 385th, 387th, 391st
Orel MD: 323rd, 325th, 329th, 331st
Moscow MD: 201st Latvian, 322nd, 324th, 326th, 328th, 330th, 342nd
Volga MD: 334th, 336th, 338th, 340th, 344th, 346th, 348th, 350th, 352nd, 354th, 356th, 358th, 360th
Kiev MD: 87th (destroyed Sept 41, reformed near Kursk in Nov)
Kharkov MD: 134th (wiped out 10th Oct 41)
Siberia MD: 93rd (pre-war)
Urals MD: 357th, 359th, 363rd, 365th, 371st, 373rd, 375th, 379th

241st was formed from 28th Tank Division (NW Front)

Far Eastern MD:
78th (pre-war) - arrived Western Front 31st Oct 1941
239th (reformed Aug 41) - arrived WF 21st Nov 1941
415th (raised Sept 41 at Vladivostok) - arrived WF mid-November

Color me stupid...by why wouldn't the Central Asian & Siberian MD impact the FE?
When you refer to the "list" is this in reference to Sharps work?

[Kereguelen]

ORIGINAL: treespider

Color me stupid...by why wouldn't the Central Asian & Siberian MD impact the FE?

Because they were not (never) under FE Command. If you look at a map of the SU you'll notice that Central Asia MD (HQ Alma Ata) is near the Chinese border but has no suitable road or rail connections to the FE theatre and Siberia MD is too far inland (both were no active fronts but only used to raise and train troops).

But I've noticed an error: 93rd was under Transbaikal Front until 6th Oct 1941 and not in Siberia MD.

ORIGINAL: treespider
When you refer to the "list" is this in reference to Sharps work?

Sorry, my bad! Yes, it's from Sharp.

[treespider]

Just to beat a nearly dead horse....because isn't that why we keep posting on the forum regularly - Kereguelen asked me to identify some units...and for no other reason.

ORIGINAL: Kereguelen

ORIGINAL: treespider
p170 - "The transfer of troops from the Far East had begun in earnest in the first days of November, and by the time that the German offensive got under way again Zhukov had more than double his strength(4) as compared with the initial period at the middle of October, when he assumed active command.

(4) The total brought from the far East in the winter of 1941 included seventeen hundred tanks and fifteen hundred aircraft, and was made up as follows:

Transbaikalia: seven rifle, two cavalry division, two tank brigades
Outer Mongolia: one rifle, two tank brigades
Amur: two rifle divisions, one tank brigade
Ussuri: five rifle divisons, one cavalry, three tank brigades"

Please name this divisions. Numbers? Designations?

As I said in a later post..."Give me some time"... and I initially offered up some vague unsubstantiated offerings from a game I have on my bookshelf.

So now that this topic has captured my fancy... I think I've found some definitive sources that may Identify the units to which Clark was refering in Barbarossa. I will list the sources at the bottom of the post for those of you who want to go down and peek...although I am sure being the afficianados that we all are around here I'm sure some of you already have them.

Let's try this:

1st Source p. 154: "...However, when Stalin negotiated a neutality Pact with Japan in April 1941, the likelihood of hostilities in the Far East, decreased significantly, permitting Stavka to transfer sizable forces from the Western theater to defend moscow when the Wehrmacht threatened the Soviet capital in november and December 1941.
When the Germans began Operation Barbarossa, Red Army strength in the far East stood at 32 division equivalents. Between july and november 1941, Stavka recalled 12 divisions westward from the far East and Trans-Baikal regions; nevertheless, the massive ongoing mobilizationstill kept Red Army strength in the Far East at a level of 39 division equivalents (18 ). Despite transferring an additional 23 divisions and 19 brigades westward in 1942, the Stavka increased Red Army strength in the Far East to 46 division equivalents by 19 November 1942. The forces transferred westward from the Far East during 1941 and 1942 did contribute significantly to the Red Army's victories at Moscow and Stalingrad.
By the summer of 1943, however, all transfer of forces westward ended abuptly...."

(18) refer to second source p.8

2nd Source, p. 6: " The wartime deployment of Red Army forces from the far east to the west began in early july 1941 and accelerated thereafter. from july through November, the Stavka recalled 13 rifle, tank, and motorized divisions from the far east, divisions that subsequently played a significant role in halting German force on the approaches to Moscow and in launching the red Army's ensuing Moscow counteroffensive. (11) A second wave of Far eastern divisions, sent westward in 1942, contributed to Red Army success at Stalingrad in November 1942. This included two rifle divisions between 5 December 1941 and 30 Apr 1942 and ten rifle divisions and four rifle brigades with a total of 150,000 men and more than 1600 guns and mortars between 1 May and 19 November 1942."

And here is where we may identify at least those units identified by Clark as originating in Transbaikalia and Outer Mongolia

(11) These redeployments included the 65th, 93rd and 114th Rifle, the 82nd Motorized Rifle and the 57th Tank Divisions from the Trans-Baikal Military District and the 21st, 26th, 32nd, 78th and 92nd Rifle, the 69th Motorized, and the 58th and 60th Tank Divisions from the 1st Far Eastern Front. See: A source I wish I could get my hands on but I'm sure you probably already have.

3rd Source - I also have my hands on a potential third source that details the make up of the Red Army Order of Battle from 22 June 1941- 1 August 1941 including our beloved friends in the Far East and elsewhere
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As many of you have probably already discerned my sources are:

1st Source-
David M Glantz, Colossus Reborn:The Red Army at War, 1941-1943, (University of Kansas Press, 2005) ISBN 0-7006-1353-6

2nd Source-
David M Glantz, The Soviet Strategic Offensive in Manchuria, 1945:'August Storm', (Frank Cass Publishers, 2003) ISBN 0-7146-5279-2

3rd Source-
David M Glantz, Stumbling Colossus: The Red Army on the Eve of World War, (University of Kansas Press, 1998) ISBN 0-7006-0879-6


Potential 4th Source I wish I could lay my hands on-
David M. Glantz, Red Army Ground Forces in June 1941,(Carlisle, PA 1997)

[el cid again]

Example #1 The US did not embargo oil until after the Japanese occupied Indo China in July of 1941 which was part of the Japanese Grand Strategy of moving South.

I am sorry you "don't care for my statements." I am constrained by history. The Japanese move into IndoChina may SEEM to you like
"part of the Japanese Grand Strategy of moving South" but, in fact, it was initially made to isolate China. Indeed, at first IJA moved only into Tonkin (Northern North Viet Nam for those who don't speak French Indochina colonial names). We have the official Japanese documents, and they are translated and published. The decision for war with the USA came AFTER the embargo, not BEFORE it.

[el cid again]

Example #2 The non-aggression pact had not expired when the Soviets launched their attack in 1945. The Soviets advised the Japanese ambassador on August 8 that they had no intention of renewing the pact which was set to expire in 1946. The Soviets also told the ambassador that as of August 9 a state of war would exist between the Soviet Union and the Japanese.

This is correct, although I didn't say it properly (because I didn't remember it properly). It weakens your case: obviously the pact does NOT provide a "guarantee" this will be a passive front. Clearly the Soviets will attack when it is in their interests in their opinion. I think it is equally clear the Japanese will do the same. [ALL great powers behave this way.] To force a passive situation is simply ahistorical. The possibility of violation of the pact exists, and in fact occurred.

[el cid again]

for what yet another opinion is worth, I think the suggestion that the Allied (Soviet) player be given a "heads up" {i.e. Japan player initiates Soviet activation before actually attacking} before Japan {actually} attacks is the easiest, and best working solution to the "problem" as it is described. (which at it's heart is the fact that the Soviet player is "frozen" until Japan crosses the border allowing them to optimize their invasion force while the Sov player sits dumb and mute, making large numbers of the Far Eastern army vulnerable to being cut off and neutralized.

The "heads up" can be interpreted as the Soviet Intelligence network catching the scent of japanese mobilization efforts in Manchuria and issuing a red alert to the Far Eastern command. Soviet forces (as would most likely be the case in real life) would be under strict orders not to cross the border less the "enemy" be given an 'excuse' to attack, but they can redistribute available forces to meet any contigencies should the Japanese go through with it.

Whatever the value of the Sorge spy ring, it ceased to exist before the end of 1941. Thereafter the Soviets have no such "advantage." Further, it is clear the Soviets cannot be forbidden to attack because they DID attack. It is anything but smart on this long convoluted front to force the Red Army to sit and wait for the Japanese to jump off. Japan can isolate Soviet units if it has the initiative. But Japan has its own logistic vulnerabilities - IF you must fight - it may be wise NOT to wait. I do not see this suggestion as covering all possibilities realistically. But it has some merit in the event of an early Japanese attack. Since that is not realistic - Japan must move south to get oil - and even IJA officers agreed to that - I see it a moot suggestion.

[el cid again]

[quote]Russia is fine except they should be able to react a bit just before any huge Japanese offensive. Otherwise the garrison requirements keep the Japanese army in place just fine.

Except it isn't fine. Russia cannot react if inactive. And the garrison requirements do NOT keep the JAAF in place one bit. Now IF you take my suggestion and activate the Soviets, you could then have an agreement about Russia not attacking if you like. I think that is silly - Russia did attack eventually after all. But do what you like, at least you have the ability for Russia to control where it fortifies, how it upgrades air units, where it defends, and the ability to react to a Japanese deployment (e.g. a concentration of a force in NW Manchuria to drive on Chita). But leaving it inactive does nothing at all except make a Japanese attack much more effective. Japan ALWAYS has the option to attack in the present system.

[el cid again]

p. 150 Second and, at this early stage of the war , undoubtedly the most important, was the Sorge group in Tokyo. Sorge was on the staff of the German Ambassador.

So much for the accuracy of your source. Sorge was NEVER "on the staff of the German Ambassador." Sorge was a journalist. He was a FRIEND to the German Ambassador. He had better connections than that however: he was a confidant of senior Japanese officials and personally was able to influence Japanese policy - something no German official could do. He also had agents with inside information in several Japanese institutions. He skillfully exploited his situation, and the Germans (properly) regarded HIM as a source.

[el cid again]

No I understand. I tested Russia quite a bit. Give me two days as Russia to redeploy and no way Japan wins without 15 extra divisions.

OK. I must be a dunce. IF Russia is frozen what prevents Japan from moving 15 extra divisions? It starts with 150. It ends with 300. 15 seems managable. Must Russia watch? Yes - if frozen. Until Japan has whatever it thinks it needs. What if it adds 25 divisions? Still no need to move any Russians?

[el cid again]

Only way would be if you have defeated China and then bring the entire army from that area. Then you can probably win in a long campaign.

Sit down Moses: I agree with you (no heart attack please). I also think that was the IJA idea. Win in China. Then go North and settle things once and for all - lots of resources up there too.

[el cid again]

Well this is really the crux of the discussion. It should be left to the individual players to decide and not fostered on everyone as some unwanted smelly wet dog.

I am following this path: One scenario of the pair I release will have the Soviets active (41BB), one will have thm inactive (41CV). Players can then use either option with any house rules they please. This discussion convinced me there is no consensus, but the idea of active Soviets has merit - so I am going both ways - leaving the details to players.

[moses]

If Japan sends 15 extra divisions then they may win in a long campaign. But as long as Russia can have a couple days to react to massive Japanese stacks of units it won't be a rout.

If Japan is unable to defeat Russia in a quick campaign then it is hard to see how adding Russia to its list of enemies is rational.

If I have two days as Russia I look at what Japan is bringing and act accordingly. If they have not reinforced I can hold the frontier easily. If they have massively reinforced I strengthen the center while pulling forces north from the area of Vladavostock. My goal being to conduct a fighting withdraw deep into Russia.

As the allied player I would be pretty happy with 25 Japanese divisions fighting a long campaign in Russia even if in they end they conquered the whole thing after 5 or 6 months. The large aircraft losses Japan will take will be an added bonus.

What is not acceptable in a reinforced Japanese army conquering Russia almost bloodlessly in a one month campaign. This is prevented by allowing Russia a couple days warning of attack. If you want a weeks notice fine. But IMO not much else is required.

[treespider]

ORIGINAL: el cid again

p. 150 Second and, at this early stage of the war , undoubtedly the most important, was the Sorge group in Tokyo. Sorge was on the staff of the German Ambassador.

So much for the accuracy of your source. Sorge was NEVER "on the staff of the German Ambassador." Sorge was a journalist. He was a FRIEND to the German Ambassador. He had better connections than that however: he was a confidant of senior Japanese officials and personally was able to influence Japanese policy - something no German official could do. He also had agents with inside information in several Japanese institutions. He skillfully exploited his situation, and the Germans (properly) regarded HIM as a source.

Then let me quote anothet source - The Oxford Companion to World War II,p 1023

"Sorge, Richard (1895-1944), Soviet agent of german-Russian parentage who was one of the war's most effective spies.

Sorge went to Japan as the Frankfurter Zeitung's correspondent during the 1930's where a close friend and confidant of the German military attache' (later ambassador) in Tokyo, he became the German embassy's press attache'...."

I guess the press attache' is not considered to be part of the staff of the ambassador?

[moses]

ORIGINAL: el cid again

Only way would be if you have defeated China and then bring the entire army from that area. Then you can probably win in a long campaign.

Sit down Moses: I agree with you (no heart attack please). I also think that was the IJA idea. Win in China. Then go North and settle things once and for all - lots of resources up there too.

I tested this three times. Twice in head-to-head solitare and once against Amiral Laurent. This was in response to Hirohito who claimed it could be done and the controversey that followed.

I brough 10 extra divisions from China and SRA and attacked in late december. I showed that Russia could be crushed in about a month with a surprise attack.After this it was just mopping up.

But it all depended on the first attacks By going all out in the first two days you could retreat key Russian forces and effectively break the defence before Russia can respond. But even here it is not a cakewalk. My first tries failed because I employed the wrong strategies and so even with 10 extra divisions and full surprise I would bet half of any games played Russia would still do OK.

Without full surprise the balance of advantage is way in Russia's favor based at least on my tests. I tested under the stock scenario.

[Kereguelen]

ORIGINAL: treespider

ORIGINAL: el cid again

p. 150 Second and, at this early stage of the war , undoubtedly the most important, was the Sorge group in Tokyo. Sorge was on the staff of the German Ambassador.

So much for the accuracy of your source. Sorge was NEVER "on the staff of the German Ambassador." Sorge was a journalist. He was a FRIEND to the German Ambassador. He had better connections than that however: he was a confidant of senior Japanese officials and personally was able to influence Japanese policy - something no German official could do. He also had agents with inside information in several Japanese institutions. He skillfully exploited his situation, and the Germans (properly) regarded HIM as a source.

Then let me quote anothet source - The Oxford Companion to World War II,p 1023

"Sorge, Richard (1895-1944), Soviet agent of german-Russian parentage who was one of the war's most effective spies.

Sorge went to Japan as the Frankfurter Zeitung's correspondent during the 1930's where a close friend and confidant of the German military attache' (later ambassador) in Tokyo, he became the German embassy's press attache'...."

I guess the press attache' is not considered to be part of the staff of the ambassador?

Sorge was not employed by the foreign ministry, thus he technically was not part of the staff of the German ambassador. But he wrote the press bulletins for the ambassador and edited the monthly "newspaper" that was published by the German embassy for the German community in Japan. While he was not formally the press attache, he de facto was.

[Kereguelen]

ORIGINAL: treespider

Just to beat a nearly dead horse....because isn't that why we keep posting on the forum regularly - Kereguelen asked me to identify some units...and for no other reason.

(11) These redeployments included the 65th, 93rd and 114th Rifle, the 82nd Motorized Rifle and the 57th Tank Divisions from the Trans-Baikal Military District and the 21st, 26th, 32nd, 78th and 92nd Rifle, the 69th Motorized, and the 58th and 60th Tank Divisions from the 1st Far Eastern Front. See: A source I wish I could get my hands on but I'm sure you probably already have.

Hi, to make it clear: I was never disputing that the Soviets send large reinforcements from the Far East. I was only saying that they moved this forces to the Western Front before they knew that the Japanese would attack PH and that there is no relationship in this regard to the intelligence provided by Richard Sorge.

All divisions shown in your source moved west before Oct 18th 1941.

57th Tank Division unloaded in the Ukraine on June 26th 1941 (before the war started!), 69th Mechanized Division unloaded Moscow on July 1st 1941. 21st Rifle moved west in August, 65th and 114th Rifle moved in September, the rest in October. The last of those divisions (82nd Mechanized) arrived Moscow on Oct 22nd 1941 (58th and 60th Tank arrived in Oct only because they were delayed before because they reprganized their tank components before moving).

K

[treespider]

Kereguelen said:

Hi, to make it clear: I was never disputing that the Soviets send large reinforcements from the Far East. I was only saying that they moved this forces to the Western Front before they knew that the Japanese would attack PH and that there is no relationship in this regard to the intelligence provided by Richard Sorge.

Which I will grant you in regards to Sorge. My only intention with the post was to provide a probable list of the units to which Clark may have been refering to.

[treespider]

Sorge was not employed by the foreign ministry, thus he technically was not part of the staff of the German ambassador. But he wrote the press bulletins for the ambassador and edited the monthly "newspaper" that was published by the German embassy for the German community in Japan. While he was not formally the press attache, he de facto was.

Well then I guess you'll just have to excuse all of these historians for confusing the issue.[;)]