Random weather blizzard in November 1941 not triggering the First Winter rule

[Kielec]

The random weather option makes it possible to have blizzard weather (particularly in North and Central weather zones) in second half of November. But the First Winter rule kicks in only in December 1941. As a result there may be blizzard in November '41, but without the debilitating effects on the Axis, which I find a mistake. If you allow blizzard in November '41, it should bring all the love of General Winter with it.

Here's a thread where some discussion took place:
tm.asp?m=4537429

[Chris21wen]

ORIGINAL: Kielec

The random weather option makes it possible to have blizzard weather (particularly in North and Central weather zones) in second half of November. But the First Winter rule kicks in only in December 1941. As a result there may be blizzard in November '41, but without the debilitating effects on the Axis, which I find a mistake. If you allow blizzard in November '41, it should bring all the love of General Winter with it.

Here's a thread where some discussion took place:
tm.asp?m=4537429

It's been answered, but you obviouly don't like the answer.

[Kielec]

If, by "the answer", you mean "bite it, you poor sod, it's the way it is", meaning, that the possible blizzard turns before December 1941 will not produce the First Winter blizzard-related effects, and you are OK with that, and do not intend to change it, then yes, you are right. I don't like the answer.

Reason: It doesn't make any sense to me.
Explanation: I think I have given enough in the discussion thread.
Suggested solutions:
1. Make any blizzard turn in '41 produce the First Winter effect as per December setting. That only makes sense...
2. (Poor cousin, but still...) Remove the blizzard option from the random weather charts before December 1941. Possibly by fiat, i.e. by the well tested technique of adding something like "und zere shall be no blizzard until December 1941" to the rules, like you did with there having to be blizzard in December '41 and January '42, random be damned.

[mouse707]

You assume some kind of blizzard uniformity.

[Kielec]

ORIGINAL: mouse707

You assume some kind of blizzard uniformity.

Yes, Sir! To an extent.
I do assume, that what goes as extreme weather conditions called "blizzard" in game terms, means:

1. Extreme cold (say, average daily temperatures below -10C, perhaps -20C at night, perhaps much worse, at any rate, enough to freeze a 200m wide river stiff within a week (one turn).
Clarification: The Svir River, by Voznesenye - its exit to Ladoga Lake, is a bit more than 200m wide, by the game standards it goes as "minor river". Now, within the game terms, the North Weather Zone produces a -4 freezing effect per turn during blizzard. That means, that within a week of blizzard, Svir gets frozen stiff, as with Ice 4 level it can be crossed even by Heavy Tanks without any penalties. We are talking asphalt, not water. That's pretty cold, don't you think? Blizzard in Central Zone is supposed to freeze an extremely wide and potent river within 3 weeks/turns. Acceptable simulation, to my mind.

2. Snowfall in the wind. Seriously cold (vide: 1.) wind. That's bad. Well, at least worse than "just" snow, in game terms. There seems to be a distinction (in game terms) between "snow" and "blizzard" for a reason, eh?

3. Needless to say, general misery descended upon anyone who cannot huddle under a warm blanket next to a hot stove under a roof, at lease from time to time. Both the stoves [fuel!] and blankets were obviously in short supply for Der Wehrmacht in '41, not ot mention the winter gear (warm clothes, eh?). That "roof over one's head" part is pretty nicely simulated by the town/city thing - - I cannot but agree with the approach (I'd actually give more bonus to fortification levels, but let's not muddle up the rant).

As far as I know, blizzard, in game terms, is not uniform, and I, actually, like the approach. Freezing of rivers goes differently per weatehr zone (+4 North... ... +1 Europe, as far as I know). So yes, in game terms, it's not the same blizzard everywhere. But it somehow becomes the same, uniform blizzard come December! No matter where your (not Mountain etc.) unit is posted, it starts to feel the wrath of General Winter. You'd like to discuss the "uniformity" of blizzard from Leningrad to Odessa on December 1, 1941? Bring it on! I'm here. I'd rather discuss the "First Winter Rules" not kicking in in an unlikely event of there bing a blizzard before December '41, which is my only point here...

My point, just to state it again: It's ether Blizzard, or it's not. You allow a (random weather) "blizzard" in November, it should bite as hard, as it would in December. If, as per new rules, you allow random weather blizzard (as unlikely, as it is in them charts) in October, it should bite as hard as a blizzard does. To my mind, it's either blizzard, or not. If it's blizzard, let it bite, if it's snow, let it fall.

[MarauderPL]

I agree with Kielec here, if blizzard hits in November, why should it be any different than the December one? The Germans weren't prepared anyways. It's either disable the chance for it to happen in Nov or make the Nov blizzard great again (biting to the bone).

[Chris21wen]

ORIGINAL: MarauderPL

I agree with Kielec here, if blizzard hits in November, why should it be any different than the December one? The Germans weren't prepared anyways. It's either disable the chance for it to happen in Nov or make the Nov blizzard great again (biting to the bone).

It wasn't as cold, that's why.

[AFV]

Where I live, it is colder in December than in November. I don't live in Russia but I will go out on a limb here and say the same is true there. So, it makes perfect sense to me that the effects would not be as bad in November.

[MarauderPL]

Its not about is it cold here or there on in Russia. The game is a simulation with random chances. If it simulates that the extreme weather hits in November, then it hits in November with all its consequences. If we (or to be precise: game developers) agree that blizzard in November is improbable or makes no sense whatsoever then the probability for blizzard in November should be set to 0. If not - it should work as stated for the 1941 blizzard ruleset. I am not arguing (and if I understood correctly neither is Kielec) for putting in obligatory blizzard in November, just for tidying up the rules and making them cohesive and understandable.

On the side note: we are talking about the random weather tables, but a lot of people brings up arguments about historical weather or average weather. Thats not what probability is all about [:D]
We are talking here about fantasy (simulated) scenario, and, while in general Novembers are warmer than Decembers there might be a situation where weather conditions described as blizzard for the game purposes appear in November. Again, I'm not arguing that they should - I have no opinion on this topic.

[Chris21wen]

Weather conditions are not linear, it appears what your suggesting that the game should use linear rule.

Ignore the first winter rule for a minite, are you suggesting that the 1/20 chance of a blizzard in Nov should not exist? What about the 1/20 chance of mud in Nov?

The only reason the first winter rule is there is because the weather across Europe was extreme during the winter or 1941-42. Is it not reasonable to assume that this weather started to bite during Dec, with a blizzard in Nov being just like a blizzard in 1943/44 etc.

[Kielec]

ORIGINAL: Chris21wen

The only reason the first winter rule is there is because the weather across Europe was extreme during the winter or 1941-42.

Precisely.

ORIGINAL: Chris21wen

Is it not reasonable to assume that this weather started to bite during Dec, with a blizzard in Nov being just like a blizzard in 1943/44 etc.

Yet, this is exactly what is happening! A November Blizzard is not like the December Blizzard, which to my understanding, makes no sense.

WITE is a simulation. By including rather elaborate First Winter rules, it strives to simulate the situation in which Axis armies, unprepared for the harsh winter that came, found themselves once the Blizzard hit. The Frist Winter penalties are there to simulate the lack of winter gear, winter fuel for vehicles, winter clothes etc. Notice, how with every month of the 41/42 winter the penalties go down - that simulates the trickle in of winter materiel to the units; every month more warm socks the worried mothers send East, more winterized fuel arrives, more stoves and fuel for them are "organised" etc. Decent simulation.

Now what does the current situation simulate? I refer to the sorry fact, that (in the current version of the game) in an unlikely event of a Blizzard weather in November, the First Winter penalties do not kick in. What does it simulate??

[Kielec]

ORIGINAL: MarauderPL

We are talking here about fantasy (simulated) scenario, and, while in general Novembers are warmer than Decembers there might be a situation where weather conditions described as blizzard for the game purposes appear in November. Again, I'm not arguing that they should - I have no opinion on this topic.

I will allow myself here to repeat what I already said. As per the new manual (v1.3 as per today's iteration: tm.asp?m=4529371), on the random weather settings, Blizzard weather may(!) hit the Central Soviet Zone in November, and the Northern Soviet Zone after October 10...

Alas, as of now, these Blizzards will not kick in the First Winter rules, which I am arguing (and MarauderPL here seems to support me on this windmill fight) to be a logical mistake.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: Kielec

ORIGINAL: MarauderPL

We are talking here about fantasy (simulated) scenario, and, while in general Novembers are warmer than Decembers there might be a situation where weather conditions described as blizzard for the game purposes appear in November. Again, I'm not arguing that they should - I have no opinion on this topic.

I will allow myself here to repeat what I already said. As per the new manual (v1.3 as per today's iteration: tm.asp?m=4529371), on the random weather settings, Blizzard weather may(!) hit the Central Soviet Zone in November, and the Northern Soviet Zone after October 10...

Alas, as of now, these Blizzards will not kick in the First Winter rules, which I am arguing (and MarauderPL here seems to support me on this windmill fight) to be a logical mistake.

I agree that this should be fixed. Been around far too long as an inconsistency.

[Chris21wen]

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain

I agree that this should be fixed. Been around far too long as an inconsistency.

I disagree. You need some small element of randomness, keeps both sides on there toes. We know all about the weather that winter, it's history but they did not know at the time, they new it was bad just how bad and how much effect the weather was going to have. Romoving this, removes the randomness. Further if you remove it why not remove the chance of snow in Dec, Jan etc. Sorry I forgot it's already there, it's called non-random weather.

I've seen many aguements about the chance in wargames producing odd results, such as an attack at overwealming odds (20:1 say) not winning. It happens, it will always happen, it's part of playing a wargame.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: Chris21wen

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain

I agree that this should be fixed. Been around far too long as an inconsistency.

I disagree. You need some small element of randomness, keeps both sides on there toes. We know all about the weather that winter, it's history but they did not know at the time, they new it was bad just how bad and how much effect the weather was going to have. Romoving this, removes the randomness. Further if you remove it why not remove the chance of snow in Dec, Jan etc. Sorry I forgot it's already there, it's called non-random weather.

I've seen many aguements about the chance in wargames producing odd results, such as an attack at overwealming odds (20:1 say) not winning. It happens, it will always happen, it's part of playing a wargame.

Great! Everyone has their own thoughts. When it boils down to it I really don't care if they fix it or not. I am going to continue to play whatever weather is there.

[Kielec]

ORIGINAL: Chris21wen


I disagree. You need some small element of randomness...

By which you mean that, since we are playing a "historically-sort-of-viable-simulation-of-what-could-have-been-going-on-if-a-butterfly-flopped-its-wings-the-other-way-etc.", making the winter 1941/42 the beginning of global warming is also digestible?

It would seem to me that you have managed to miss my point completely, which I find sad, as this my mean that my command of the Queen's English is too weak to deliver a rather simple message.

The simple message (re-edited / re-thought):

Assertion 1. The game has a set of rules called "the first winter rule", and this set of rules is a crucial part of the whole game's mechanics. As in: without the "first winter rule" this would be a different game.
Assertion 2. The "first winter rule" has at its core the arrival of the blizzard weather during the winter of 1941/42. As in: that was a reeeely harsh winter, for which Der Wehrmacht was not prepared. Once the winter weather simulated in-game as "snow" (bad for Axis troops, but not yet critical) turned into a "blizzard" - everything went South for them Axis, and big time. And this happened because the weather (blizzard '41) was bad. Really, fraking bad. Bad, as in: we haven't seen it coming and we are freezing to death. Bad, as in: the 1941/42 Campaign medal issued in spring 1942 to whomever survived was dubbed by the German troops "the Frozen Flesh/Meet Medal" (flesh and meet being one word in German).

Reason for confusion: The "blizzard" weather, although possible with "random weather" settings as early as October (North), does not trigger the "first winter rule" until December...

@Chris21wen: What "element of randomness" are you trying to defend here? The game does not allow for not having "the first winter", right? Come December, you will have it with all the ups and downs, like it, or not. Regardless of weather settings! What I am trying to say is that if you choose "random weather", you should at least have a chance to have the "first winter" disaster come upon them Axis a bit earlier...

[thedoctorking]

Obviously. Can't see why this is even an argument. Somebody just didn't think to fix the impact of blizzard when the random weather rule was added.

[Chris21wen]

ORIGINAL: Kielec

.... What I am trying to say is that if you choose "random weather", you should at least have a chance to have the "first winter" disaster come upon them Axis a bit earlier...

Seems to be to conflicting threads here and I have to say I did not read the subject title this one, I assumed it was the same as the original, irrelevant really.

My stance is simple. If you use random weather rules a blizzard in Novemeber 41 has every chance of using the First Winter Rule. I don't know for if the code restricts it to normal blizzad or not, I don't care, the term random is enough for me. Likewise if you had mud in July same stance.