Question with no answer
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Question with no answer
What if japan started its attacks in the philippines on dec 6 1941 in the late after noon and carried out its dec 7 attack at pearl would they be any more ready on that sunday morning?
I think they have only a few more planes in the air but not more at best?
your view?
I think they have only a few more planes in the air but not more at best?
your view?
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RE: Question with no answer
Why wouldnt the US and Brits immediately go to 100% alert???
Dec7 might see no shipping in Pearl Harbor and all those Warhawks flying CAP.
Dec7 might see no shipping in Pearl Harbor and all those Warhawks flying CAP.
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RE: Question with no answer
you think the ships would be moved in pearl? cap sure! I think they would be setting at anchor still its only about 7 hours
(given time difference) between attacks maybe a DD TF for subs...
most leaders were still thinking not possible to attack the base!
(given time difference) between attacks maybe a DD TF for subs...
most leaders were still thinking not possible to attack the base!
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RE: Question with no answer
ORIGINAL: JeffK
Why wouldnt the US and Brits immediately go to 100% alert???
Dec7 might see no shipping in Pearl Harbor and all those Warhawks flying CAP.
More cap and ready a/c I agree. Some ships would be distpatched to elsewhere but the base would not be empty, you don't empty a base because somewhere else is attacked. The US would have no reason to expect thet PH would be attacked. In any case many ships would be unable to get a full crew (even if they had one) and most would not be able to get steam up.
RE: Question with no answer
Some ships were in dry dock and would not have been ready in 7 hours. A lot of ships at Pearl were completely shut down, boilers completely cold. It takes a while to get back up to temperature. The KB might have found the fleet refiring their boilers.
I read a book about the USS Dale which was a Farragut class DD at Pearl that morning. They had just gotten back to harbor 12 hours before, so while the fires were not lit, the boilers were still warm. The lieutenant on watch that morning ordered an emergency start of the boilers which can cause damage, but they got lucky. The Dale was caught in the ship channel during the second strike and Vals wasted a lot of bombs trying to hit her. Some masterful handling managed to get the Dale out to open sea with only minor damage from near misses.
Most of the BBs had completely cold boilers and would have taken a while to get up enough steam. I believe the Nevada had a boiler going or was in some state more active than the other BBs that allowed them to get up some steam.
If the Japanese had attacked the PI first, Pearl might have been more on alert, but they still would have been caught with their pants down. Kimmel and Short did not believe Pearl could be attacked from the air, even though it had in exercises been attacked twice with much success. Nobody in the west believed Japanese aircraft were as good as they were.
Some more ships would be at sea and some fighters probably would have been airborne, but I suspect the Japanese would have done almost as much damage.
Bill
I read a book about the USS Dale which was a Farragut class DD at Pearl that morning. They had just gotten back to harbor 12 hours before, so while the fires were not lit, the boilers were still warm. The lieutenant on watch that morning ordered an emergency start of the boilers which can cause damage, but they got lucky. The Dale was caught in the ship channel during the second strike and Vals wasted a lot of bombs trying to hit her. Some masterful handling managed to get the Dale out to open sea with only minor damage from near misses.
Most of the BBs had completely cold boilers and would have taken a while to get up enough steam. I believe the Nevada had a boiler going or was in some state more active than the other BBs that allowed them to get up some steam.
If the Japanese had attacked the PI first, Pearl might have been more on alert, but they still would have been caught with their pants down. Kimmel and Short did not believe Pearl could be attacked from the air, even though it had in exercises been attacked twice with much success. Nobody in the west believed Japanese aircraft were as good as they were.
Some more ships would be at sea and some fighters probably would have been airborne, but I suspect the Japanese would have done almost as much damage.
Bill
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RE: Question with no answer
7 hours about ...much less given waiting for orders just to do something!
Wdolson I think you are spot on..most ship as still going to be there even if not all of them! by the time KB attacks
Wdolson I think you are spot on..most ship as still going to be there even if not all of them! by the time KB attacks
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RE: Question with no answer
they would but would have no time to do anything much that would be effective.
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RE: Question with no answer
My opinion? Many / most of the ships would have found some way to get underway and out of the choked killing grounds of Pearl. All boilers might not have been up and they may not have even embarked all crew, but I'm guessing they would have found some way out and scattered. Active naval search, active and heavy CAP and active and heavy AAA would have made the Japanese attack very costly.
RE: Question with no answer
The way I see it is even know they are at war..the ships are still not going to move...in the time they have..because they don't think they are in danger! remember the US has not been at war for a long time its Sunday morning there is an attack over 2,000km away your going to rush out and empty the harbor?
but opinions are what I am seeking..
but opinions are what I am seeking..
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RE: Question with no answer
The biggest difference wouldn't have much to do with ships.
The biggest difference would have been sending out a realistic search with the plethora of PBYs sitting in port.
The biggest difference would have been a completely different reaction to spotting the incoming "B17s" on radar.
The biggest difference would have been the KB being spotted and the Americans having an effective CAP overhead waiting to greet them.
Try playing a first turn without surprise and see what happens having CAP over Pearl.
The biggest difference would have been sending out a realistic search with the plethora of PBYs sitting in port.
The biggest difference would have been a completely different reaction to spotting the incoming "B17s" on radar.
The biggest difference would have been the KB being spotted and the Americans having an effective CAP overhead waiting to greet them.
Try playing a first turn without surprise and see what happens having CAP over Pearl.
Hans
RE: Question with no answer
A funny thing often happens when I set up that situation with the AI. When the KB gets attacked by LBA before the attack, it frequently turns around and goes home! [X(] Seeing how nervous Nagumo was about discovery and LBA (both at PH and later Midway) maybe that's not so unrealistic. [&:]
RE: Question with no answer
good points Hans but I am not really talking about the game so much as what they would really have done 7 hrs after the attack in the Philippines ,I think they still would have been very slow to get up to speed...and not as ready as some would think.
but it is a Question with no real answer.
Tigercub
but it is a Question with no real answer.
Tigercub
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RE: Question with no answer
I'd like to point out something that seems not to have been noticed. Tigercub posits a Dec. 6 attack in the Philippines. If this had happened, Allied commanders in Hawaii would have been on alert for over a day for possible attacks on the islands. The Philippines are on the other side of the IDL. (A Philippines attack in the late afternoon of Dec. 7 would have given an alert time of probably better than 12 hours, since Hawaii would be in darkness on the night of Dec. 6.)
RE: Question with no answer
Another point is AAA preperation. Many of the AA guns at PH were not in their "wartime positions", in fact many were in storage. And most ships had their AMMO locked up, leading to stories of crews smashing lockers open and breaking locks. If you had 24 hours warning , all guns would have been manned, positioned, and properly supplied with AMMO. Even ships that couldn't be brought up to steam , could be towed to safer locations (like shallower water, or against a pier) and steps could be taken to ensure water tight integrity.
Even if the CAP was decimated or worse, that would provide some protection to the fleet and facilities. And if not, then aircraft could be dispersed.
Aircraft were gathered to ease guarding them , due to a shortage of personel. 24 hours would allow calling up the Territorial Guard and other security forces , allowing for a somewhat better dispersal plan.
Overall, even if not a single ship or aircraft could be moved, 100% manning would make the Japanese attack more expensive and probably less successful. [:)]
Even if the CAP was decimated or worse, that would provide some protection to the fleet and facilities. And if not, then aircraft could be dispersed.
Aircraft were gathered to ease guarding them , due to a shortage of personel. 24 hours would allow calling up the Territorial Guard and other security forces , allowing for a somewhat better dispersal plan.
Overall, even if not a single ship or aircraft could be moved, 100% manning would make the Japanese attack more expensive and probably less successful. [:)]
RE: Question with no answer
its seems the time difference is greater than I was thinking...
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RE: Question with no answer
Reading the thread made me think, given the communications of the day, does anyone have an idea how long it would have taken to notify the powers that be of the attack on the PI?
I'd rather be lucky than good.
RE: Question with no answer
There was a cable, so it would have been pretty fast.
I agree with the others. The ships may have been cold, but a war footing would dramatically have changed the defenses. A much stronger cap, even brushed aside, would disrupt the attack to some degree. AAA would have been ready & waiting. Aircraft would have been better dispersed.. A fleet recall would have the defenses a lot better staffed. The attack would still have caused a lot of damage, but I don't think it would have been as much.
Plus, personal opinion might not have been as great. America was completely incensed at a "sneak attack". This made it personal. Even the political doves were screaming for blood.
I agree with the others. The ships may have been cold, but a war footing would dramatically have changed the defenses. A much stronger cap, even brushed aside, would disrupt the attack to some degree. AAA would have been ready & waiting. Aircraft would have been better dispersed.. A fleet recall would have the defenses a lot better staffed. The attack would still have caused a lot of damage, but I don't think it would have been as much.
Plus, personal opinion might not have been as great. America was completely incensed at a "sneak attack". This made it personal. Even the political doves were screaming for blood.
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RE: Question with no answer
Word of the attack would have been received at Pearl and the USA (and Oz and India and Britain) within minutes; certainly no more than an hour.
Pearl would have been a much stiffer test given five or ten or 20 hours notice. As Hans notes, those radar operators who were misled about the identity of the incoming planes would have had a completely different reaction. AA fire would have been much more intense as would CAP. As others have noted, an already skittish Nagumo would have been that much more skittish. And how would the USN carriers and aircraft squadrons be used?
Pearl Harbor would've still been a Japanese victory, but the cost to Japan would have been much greater and the losses to the USN probably would have been somewhat less.
Pearl would have been a much stiffer test given five or ten or 20 hours notice. As Hans notes, those radar operators who were misled about the identity of the incoming planes would have had a completely different reaction. AA fire would have been much more intense as would CAP. As others have noted, an already skittish Nagumo would have been that much more skittish. And how would the USN carriers and aircraft squadrons be used?
Pearl Harbor would've still been a Japanese victory, but the cost to Japan would have been much greater and the losses to the USN probably would have been somewhat less.
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RE: Question with no answer
From my experience in game of a second day Dec 8 strike where PH was emptied, the remaining ships sortied and sent hunting, and lots of planes in the air attacking, it might have been lights out for the IJN if someone had the time and guts to send out the fleet toward the KB. The US CVs might have been called back and at least Enterprise getting close to Hawaii as well.
Even though it was only 7 hours difference in time, early morning patrols would have gone out, been more 'on edge,' (maybe even seen the strikes in the air coming in) and if the KB was sighted (especially if the Japanese did not see the shadowing plane) the entire fleet could have had a chance to wake up and get moving as the attacks rolled in. The CAP and flak would have reduced effectiveness of the strikes and maybe the second wave especially wouldn't have been even close to as effective.
Imagine 20 DDs, 4-5 cruisers and 4-5 BBs leaving Pearl at mid-day and going hunting. It's a long trip back to Japan.
Even though it was only 7 hours difference in time, early morning patrols would have gone out, been more 'on edge,' (maybe even seen the strikes in the air coming in) and if the KB was sighted (especially if the Japanese did not see the shadowing plane) the entire fleet could have had a chance to wake up and get moving as the attacks rolled in. The CAP and flak would have reduced effectiveness of the strikes and maybe the second wave especially wouldn't have been even close to as effective.
Imagine 20 DDs, 4-5 cruisers and 4-5 BBs leaving Pearl at mid-day and going hunting. It's a long trip back to Japan.
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RE: Question with no answer
ORIGINAL: obvert
From my experience in game of a second day Dec 8 strike where PH was emptied, the remaining ships sortied and sent hunting, and lots of planes in the air attacking, it might have been lights out for the IJN if someone had the time and guts to send out the fleet toward the KB. The US CVs might have been called back and at least Enterprise getting close to Hawaii as well.
Even though it was only 7 hours difference in time, early morning patrols would have gone out, been more 'on edge,' (maybe even seen the strikes in the air coming in) and if the KB was sighted (especially if the Japanese did not see the shadowing plane) the entire fleet could have had a chance to wake up and get moving as the attacks rolled in. The CAP and flak would have reduced effectiveness of the strikes and maybe the second wave especially wouldn't have been even close to as effective.
Imagine 20 DDs, 4-5 cruisers and 4-5 BBs leaving Pearl at mid-day and going hunting. It's a long trip back to Japan.
This scenario was war gamed repeatedly, most recently on History Channel. It was shown pretty conclusively that a sortie would have resulted in the complete annihilation of the Pacific fleet. As it was, several ships, though badly damaged, were repaired & brought back into service.
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