Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[Canoerebel]

Last week, John III (Japanese) and I (Allies) started a new game using Big B 1.40 on AB's extended map. John and I were frequent UV opponents, but this is our first time to oppose each other in WitP. John is a very experienced Japanese player, while this is only my second game (my other is ongoing against Miller).

John and I agreed to to play by the "usual" house rules but we haven't finalized those yet. We played historical first turn with the Allies only issuing orders to Chinese troops, TFs at sea, and a few subs in San Diego (only because I forgot about this house rule until I had already issued some orders but didn't figure John would care about them).

We have already reached December 26, 1942. John had bad luck at Pearl Harbor, but has expanded far to the south into New Guinea, Luganville, Tarawa, and the western Aleutians and is making a move on Midway. Here's the skinny thus far:

Pearl Harbor: John sent in his naval bombers on the 7th only, and they performed poorly. No ships were sunk. BBs Maryland and California were the only capital ships to take relatively severe damage - one with 50+ Sys and the other with 60+ Sys. Afterwards, John split the KB and positioned one TF NE of Pearl. I knew they were somewhere out there, so I've kept all my ships in Pearl and haven't sent any supply or reinforcement convoys in from the West Coast yet. The Enterprise and Lexington fled south and are currently parked in Australia. Saratoga is in Panama City.

Pacific: John quickly took Tarawa and Rabaul. Since then, he's been expanding outward and has taken most of the northern New Guinea bases, several Solomons bases including Shortlands, and Luganville. I had a troop transport convoy moving from Tasmania to Noumea when Vals were seen over that port. I sent the convoy west toward Brisbane. John took Wake and it looks like an invasion convoy is heading for Midway. A sharp surface engagement occurred at Rabaul around Dec. 20. The Allies lost a CA Canberra, CL Perth, and DD Le Triomphant. The Japanese lost a CA, at least one DD, and had four or five other DDs take severe damage. The Allied ships performed well.

DEI and Vicinity: John sent two Mini-KBs, a multitude of surface combat TFs, and many invasion convoys, down each side of Borneo. The CVs and surface combat TFs chewed up alot of the Allied ships fleeing south from Manila. The major bases taken thus far include Palembang, Kuching, Dili, Amboina, and Tarakan. He's just landed at Koepang and that will fall soon. One of the Mini-KBs is between Timor and Australia doing heaven knows what. Dutch Martins and other bombers have scored a fair number of hits on Japanese merchant ships (to the point John has repeatedly expressed frustration, but that's what he gets for have so many convoys without air cover). He hasn't moved on Java yet.

Early Phillipines: John left Luzon alone for the first weeks, concentrating on some of the smaller bases. He's just landed a major force at Aparri. Allied shipping fled to the south, east, and northeast. Those that went east got decimated. Those that went south had mixed luck. Those that went northeast have done well - most are about to arrive in Alaska. CL Boise got clobbered by a Mini-KB just two or three days into the war and went down. Allied subs are divided between mining and patrol activities. John is regularly bombing my airfield at Manila, destroying planes on the ground.

Malaya: John isolated several ground units and they have been or are in the process of being destroyed. The Singapore garrison currently has an AV of 910. Bombers from Singapore have scored a gratifying number of hits on unprotected Japanese merchant ships, but Japanese bombing runs have destroyed a good number of aircraft on the ground.

Burma: A Japanese division is 60 miles east of Moulmein, but John isn't making a big push here yet.

China: I don't have a feel for where John will attack, so I'm not sure what's happening here yet. Reinforcements from Chungking went mainly to Changsha, but also to Sian, Yenen, and a few other points. Hong Kong fell around December 14.

KB: I'm not positive where the KB is currently. I "think" one TF was lurking down near Noumea. I know the other was NE of Pearl for awhile, and it may now be covering the Midway invasion. I have some Allied merchants moving between West Coast and Pearl to see if the coast is clear. There are supply and troops transports on the West Coast loaded and ready to go.

Allied Plans: John has so much experience that he'll be pushing further than I might expect. Early in the game, I plan to focus my efforts on strengthening Pearl and Pago Pago. Noumea will probably get a brigade. Darwin and Perth are also being reinforced. In Burma, I plan to contest Mandalay, Akyab, and the cities to the rear. Madras will get a large garrison. A few of the cities in the interior will have small garrisons. Ceylon is on it's own. The best thing I can do is preserve the US CVs and wait until mid-42 before taking any chances.

John: I've followed several of his AARs. He's made major efforts for Pearl Harbor, Alaska, New Zealand, and Australia in the past. He hasn't gone for India, but maybe that's next on his list. He likes to divide the Japanese KB, which usually ends up costing him. Has he learned his lesson?

[castor troy]

DON´T reinforce Noumea!!! [:-][:-][:-] If you are not able to put 4 divisions there - you are not able to do that - then Noumea is lost anyway. John will land at the Northern tip of New Caledonia (Koumac??) with a small force to take the port. Then the real invasion troops will follow undisrupted in full strenght. They will then march down the road and kill your brigade and all other troops. In the early months every unit on an atoll is placed better than on New Caledonia IMO. If a Japanese player REALLY wants Noumea, then he has just to bring enough troops and you will lose as he has far more available in the beginning than you have.

[Canoerebel]

Castor, art thou a prophet?  I just received sig int that a Japanese unit was loaded on AP such-n-such heading for Koumac.  So John's doing exactly what you predicted.  I can't go near Noumea right now anyway, since there's a chance a KB division is lurking there. 
 
With the location of the KB divisions known (or strongly suspected) near Noumea and north of Midway, the sea lanes from West Coast to Pearl, Pago Pago, and NZ look open and my transport convoys are moving.  I haven't sent any of Pearl's damaged BBs toward the West Coast yet.  I'll wait until I'm absolutely certain they'll have safe passage.

[ny59giants]

I'm playing John also using Big B's mod v1.4 and we just turned the corner at 1/1/42 ( I have an AAR running, but need to get it updated[;)] ). I see similarities in both are games. [:D] He just took Luganville with 1 x naval guard, 1 x Aviation unit, & 1 x engineer. I didn't see it coming at all as the next closest AF is still at Rabaul.
 
He lost the Akagi on day two as he tried something different. He sent Hiryu & Soryu to Manila (lost 8 subs and most of the fleeing ships [:@]). However, after the attack at Pearl, which did very little damage, he sent KB on a full speed run SW to try to catch my 2 CV TF heading towards Palmrya. However, for some reason, he split KB into 2 TF and only one ended up moving. [&:] I was able to get in major attacks and his attacks were piece meal. I lost 1 DD to his attacks.
 
Right now, I have lost most of SE SRA (mini-KB and Carrier Division 2) made defense too costly to conduct. I have a feeling he will go for northern Australia (his attempt to take Perth against Mandrake without it) makes me feel he wants to correct that mistake. I was unable to get any Oil out (he likes to place 1 or 2 subs in major ports) and with almost no ASW available, it wasn't worth trying to dodge Torpedoes.
 
I have 27th Division plus heading for Canton Island and am loading 1 Marine for Suva. I have thought about trying to land at Noumea, but he will have Luganville built up in a short time.
 
I like the increase in strenght in China (look at your AV in Chungking....Yikes!!). The increase in P40 production should help. The best thing right now is the 100 Politcal Points per day. [&o][&o]

[Canoerebel]

I've been reading your AAR against John and was aware of his carrier debacle.

John always splits his carriers, seems to pay a heavy price sooner (as in your game) or later (as in his game with CapMandrake), so I thought he might not do so in this game.  But he has.  I ran away anyhow.

It'll be interesting to see how your game progresses compared to this game.  The major difference (other than your earlier CV success) seems to be that you're going to build Canton Island while I'm going to build Pago Pago.

Good luck!

[ny59giants]

We are using historical reinforcements. Thus, in 12 days, I get the initial mega-reinforcment of AK/TK along with the aviation rgt (270) and BF (90 aviation support) at San Fran and Aden. Plus, I have been prepping some of the RCT at Panama for the bases around Pago Pago - going for Savaii and Wallis Island. My strongpoints will be Canton and Suva. I have 2 CV TF almost at Aukland. I plan to use them in the South Pacific while the other 2 CV TF will be based out of Pearl.
 
I know he is aware of the 100 Politcal Points per day, but I'm hoping that helps me initially. [:D]
 
Just a friendly FYI - I have played CHS, so some of this OOB is familar. You have two Canadian BF's that are not static (4 & 5) in the western part of the country each with 100 aviation support (needed badly to stem the tide) and 2 Blen squadrons that upgrade to Beaufort I's (nice to have 32 torpedo planes in the East [;)]).
 
Will be monitoring your progress. [8D]
 
 

[Canoerebel]

The dispersal of Allied ships from the Phillipines and the DEI is nearly complete now - what wasn't sunk has safely arrived in Australia, India, and Alaska. The route to the latter, ironically, proved to be the safest.

I'm stepping up the evacuation of Allied aircraft, especially form the DEI and Singapore, and to a lesser extent from the Phillipines. I'm taking alot of losses on the ground, and Japanese bombers are working to shut down Allied airfields.

Things have quieted down somewhat as John's first wave reached the "limit" of territorial expansion. He's working out the logistics of his follow up movements now. The fact that he has so many transports spread out so far must make it challenging. Too, Allied mines, bombers, subs, and PT boats have inflicted enough damage to have at least a little impact on his ability to carry troops and supplies.

Since my last post, John's troops have seized Koepang, Midway, Tulagi, and some smaller bases. He inadvertently left some small craft in his Midway invasion fleet and took some heavy losses to shore guns. He probably lost six or eight PCs, MSW, and transports.

Malaya: Two Japanese divisions and an engineer unit crossed the Johore on 12/31/41, triggering a shock attack. He was repulsed at 0:1 odds. Two more divisions with tanks and other support troops crossed on New Years Day with the same results. He's across the Johore in force and the only question is how long the Allies can hold. I think Singapore will fall sometime between the 15th and 31st. I have four units stuck in the mountains west of Khota Bharu. He hasn't taken Bharu yet, so I'm staging some aircraft from Singapore there before moving them to Burma.

Phillipines: John landed in force at Aparri and has take two other cities in northern Luzon, but hasn't moved on the "big three" outposts yet. I still have a large garrison at Clarke Field.

Burma: John is gathering units 60 miles east of Moulmein. He has paratroopers in Bangkok. He'll move west when he's ready.

China: Not much happening - John has attacked and displaced a few guerilla units, but hasn't yet advanced on any major Allied cities.

KB: Whereabouts unknown, which of course is worrisome. John can't keep the KB around Hawaii forever, but it would be unpleasant if he moves it east where I have transports approaching Pearl from the West Coast. I have a line of picket ships stationed north of Pearl, but that's no guarantee he hasn't moved past or around them. On New Years Day, a Glen reconned San Francisco, so John is looking for my ships. He must've been surprised to find less than 20 there, so he he may know I have alot of ships moving.

[Canoerebel]

1/6/42

DEI/Timor: We're a month into the war and John has taken Palembang, Dili, and Koepang. A small B-17 squadron left Cebu for Soerabaja and, from there, hit the oil facilities at Palembang doing light damage. Most of the Dutch fighters and recon planes exited the area by fleeing west (staging through Port Blair, Rangoon, and other bases). Some bombers have moved east to Australian bases. Dutch PTs put torps into two transports a few days ago. See map below for situation in western DEI and Timor.

Malaya: In Singapore, John is resting his troops, doing occasional bombardments. No Allied aircraft remain here. The garrison's AV is climbing to about 950. John's first unit arrived at Moulmein, but hasn't attacked yet. He's waiting for the others to arrive. I have two small units at Moulmein, three more across the river. I'll have to pull out of Rangoon soon.

Burma/India: Quiet. I don't think John will move on Ceylon, but I'm leaving it open. 18th UK Division just arrived at Karachi and will move to Mandalay.

China: Still pretty quiet. We've fought a sharp little engagement at Puching, with the Chinese holding out, but not for much longer.

Phillipines: John has 12 units a hex north of Clark Field, but took Lingayen with two small units (something like mortars and tanks). I'm going to try a little sneak attack using some infantry and an arty unit from Bataan and a tank reg't from Clark to see if I can sting his units there. I don't think John is real serious about Luzon yet, and in other games he's played I know from the AARs he's focused on other areas first before hitting Manila.

Aleutians: John has taken two western islands. I'm moving the base force from Dutch Harbor to Umniak, with a RCT from Kodiak also coming that way.

CenPac and SoPac: January 6th was a red-letter day - the first reinforcement convoys arrived at Pearl (carrying supplies, two AA artillery units, and a base force). More are on the way. Transports are also moving toward Pago Pago, Bora Bora, New Zealand, and Australia. But I haven't gotten the "big glut" of transports in San Fran yet, so I really don't have that much to work with. John hasn't moved yet on Johnston, Canton, Palmyra, Pago Pago, or Suva. I have two ASW forces heading to Pago Pago to try to clear out a nest of Jap subs.

NZ/New Caledonia/NG: John is vigorously expanding here. He's taken Espiritu Santo and a transport TF is moving on Koumac from the Milne Bay area (I had sig int about this nearly a week ago). I have a surface combat TF within striking range, and two US CVs are moving north from Sydney, but John may have a KB Division providing cover. I've sent out a couple of picket ships to sniff around. Also got sig int that South Seas Detachment is loaded on an AP moving to Port Moresby.

My Opponent: I think I'm getting a feel for John's play. He carefully regulates the use of his aircraft to minimize operational losses. On the other hand, he moves so many transports around in small TFs without air cover that bombers, subs, mines, and PT boats take a toll. He's aggressively expanding his perimeter. There's not much I can do about it now anyhow, so I just try to remember that the more he takes, the more stretched out he becomes, the harder it is for him to defend his empire, and the less territory I have to defend. It's only about six more months until Allied strength begins to grow apace.

[:)]

[ny59giants]

OK Dan, we need to flip a coin to see which one of us is going to slow down to only a turn per day or slower so the other player can get about 2 weeks ahead. That way, one of us will know what John is planning.  [:D][:D]
 
Our game against him is very similar in so many areas. I will get around to posting my screen shot of the SRA shortly or I could just post a link to your AAR.
 
In my other PBEM, I tried to hold out in Soerabaja on Java. This time, I'm using it to build up my LCU's and building forts at Malang (mountain hex with x4 bonus [:D], but a malaria hex [:(]).  

[Canoerebel]

NY59Giants, our common opponent says that he received an important bit of intel in one of our games - he's playing coy and won't tell me which.  He says it will result in a serious change of plans or objectives in one game as opposed to the other.  Here's his email comments on the subject:

Email 1:  "Didn't realize that both you and NY GIants have AARs running.  Am definately
gonna have to do something different in each to keep it interesting."

My Reply 1:  "I'm sure things will develop quite a bit differently in the two games - even if you followed the exact same strategy, which I doubt."

Email 2:  "I have already made a fundamental change with one of the campaigns.  Got a
good peice of intelligence this round.  THAT doesn't happen often."

My Reply 2:  "'Fundamental change'and 'significant intel' sound  ominous."

Email 3:  "That would be a good summation of my thinking right now."

Email 4:  "Got to finish current operations and then things will depart from the other
campaign."

Sounds like the intel is in my game and that something bad will happen.

[ny59giants]

It looks like John flipped the coin and you lost. [:D][:D]
 
I use Bodhi's Utility in both my PBEM games. It helps to keep track of things and I go through the Intel tab after running the Combat Replay before doing my turn to make sure I didn't miss things during the Replay. I would high recommend you install it.
 
I still think (and hope) that John will be going after Northern Australia. I was not allowed to bring in any LCU's by ship due to mini-KB and Soryu/Hiryu intervening. Nor was any supplies brought it. [:(] I have a BF in Derby and Broome and am thinking about starting them on the road as those bases are undefensible. Any suggestions on defending up north would be appreciated.
 
I saw that John asked in the War Room about China. I told him in email, "Good Luck" as I feel the Chinese are a lot stronger than stock and even CHS. I have over 1800 AV in Manila with 50k supplies behind level 3 forts. I hope he brought a snack, because this should take awhile. [:D] 

[Canoerebel]

I haven't tried Bodhi's Utilitiy.  I have a deathly fear of trying to download, correctly install, and use programs.  But I'll give it a shot.
 
You might want to glance through VSWG's "Must Read" thread - there should be good info there about defending NW Australia.  In my only other game, the Japs didn't make a move that way, so my defence wasn't tested.  In this game, I'm moving an Aussie division to Darwin, a tank regiment to Katherine, and Australia HQ and a brigade to Alice Springs.  The units in Katherine and Alice are intended to prevent John from taking a port city (like Derby) and then dropping paratroops behind my main defense at Darwin.
 
I think the Chinese are much stronger than in stock.  From my other game, the biggest threat seems to be Japanese bombing of airfields and resources.  I don't plan to do anything major with the Chinese unless John ignores that theatre, diverts troops elsewhere, and leaves glaring weakenesses.  I have moved four Chinese SEAC units toward Lashio.
 
You mentioned previously the possibility of moving two Canadian base forces to Australia.  I think we have a house rule preventing Canadians from leaving their country, but I'll double check.
 
I have quiet a few supply convoys nearing the Bora Bora area on their way to NZ and Australia.  I'll send out a picket ship or two to make sure the sea lanes are clear from the KB.  I also have convoys heading into Pago Pago.
 
 

[ny59giants]

Where in Georgia do you live??
I went to college at Toccao Falls and stayed there for 6 years as I went across the border to Clemson for my Master's degree in Counseling??  I keep trying to get some of my co-workers to take a day trip to Helen, GA. A nice little town. [:)]

You mentioned previously the possibility of moving two Canadian base forces to Australia. I think we have a house rule preventing Canadians from leaving their country, but I'll double check.

I have never even considered having a house rule on Canadian units. [&:]

[Canoerebel]

I live just north of Rome.  I went to UGA from '79 to '86, so Clemson (or Klempsin as I call it) was our chief rivalry in those days.  I went to highschool in Miami at a Christian school.  I had a fine professor from Toccoa Falls. 
 
By the way, I publish a magazine - Georgia Backroads.  A few years ago we did a feature article on the Toccoa Falls flood.   Take a look at our website (www.georgiabackroads.com) - it doesn't have anything on the Flood, but plenty else that might be of interest to you.  Our next issue (Winter '07) has two articles about men in the Navy during WWII - a bestselling author killed in action in the South Pacific, and a gunnery officer who served in the first convoy to Murmansk, Russia.
 
I didn't come up with the Canadian houserule - my nefarious opponents did.
 
 

[ny59giants]

Since your game is just starting, I would ask John if you can drop this HR. Canada was still part of the British Common Wealth at the time, if memory serves me right. So your saying it is ok for them to fight the Germans and Italians, but not the Japanese. [&:][&:]
 
You still have to use PP to change commands as if they were WC units.
 
 
I've been living in the south since '92, but I'm still a "damn yankee" so why fight it....[:D][:D]

[Alfred]

Canoerebel,
 
I presume the HR on the Canadians is because historically, Canadian ground forces in the PTO were basically limited to reinforcing Hong Kong just before the Pearl Harbor strike and operations in the Aleutians.  Your opponent might therefore object to seeing Canadian units defending Darwin or Noumea, but should not object if you station them in (and pay the PP) NoPac.
 
It might be wise to not garrison Darwin too heavily, particularly with reinforcements.  If your opponent seriously wants Darwin/Wyndham/Derby/Broome, you will have considerable difficulty in supplying a decent sized garrison.  Instead you could station a rearguard in Darwin (pull out the garrisons from the other northern ports) and station your main defence line at the intersection of the Darwin and Wyndham roads.  An early pull out allows more time for digging in inland.  That way you could achieve an even bigger POW camp than Anzio was historically.
 
Alfred

[ny59giants]

Dan
In my last turn from John, he spoke about our "conspiracy."  [:D]   I told him he brought it upon himself. [;)]
I thought the "intel" was you, but I just had 2 CVE's pull up 4 hexes west of Suva. Next to them is another CV TF of unknown composition. [X(]  I sent my 2 CV's from Aukland to investigate, carefully.  Thankfully, my shipping is taking the longer and safer route to Nz/Oz.
 
I casually asked about the HR on Canadian units. More out of curiousity becuase this is the first time I have heard of one.

[Canoerebel]

01/09/42
 
The Pacific:  John continues to aggressively expand his frontier.  An invasion TF will arrive at PM tomorrow; an invasion TF is about 1000 miles NW of Koumac, and a TF of unknown composition is moving toward Canton Island.  I have had a combat TF holding station WNW of Koumac for the past four days, awaiting John's invasion force (I received sig int about it a week or so ago).  My TF will try to intercept the invasion TF tonight.  Two US CVs moving north from Sydney should draw within range of the invasion force tomorrow.  I just hope this wasn't bait to pull me within range of a KB Division.  I'll find out tomorrow.
 
Aleutians:  BB Colorado and 3 DDs moving to Anchorage.  The transfer of troops to Umniak continues.
 
Phillipines:  P-40s at Manila are holding their own, but I can't replace losses much longer.
 
Elsewhere:  Momentarily status quo.

[ny59giants]

John just landed South Sea Det and 56 Div at PM (sound familar [&:][&:]). The good thing is, I have only 2 divisions (21st & 31st) unaccounted for. He also just had 2 CVE's (Taiyo & Hosho) near Suva disappear. [X(][X(]  The other TF (probably 2 CV's) pull back NW. I think he is trying to go hunting for my AK/TK making their way towards Nz and there is rain forecast for most of that area. I have Enterprise and Lexington headed east from Aukland. I need to get lucky. [;)]

[Canoerebel]

01/10/42
 
Malaya:  John launched a shock attack against Singapore using four divisions (16th, 18th, 48th, Imperial Guards), a tank regiment, and an engineer unit.  Much to my surprise, the attack came off at 2:1 (uh oh!) and dropped forts to 4.  John's troops lost 2247/72/5 and inflicted 1937/32/1 on the Allies.  Singapore is already on the ropes.  The main reason is that I got a number of units hung up further up the peninsula, rather than evacuating them to Singapore.  My AV remains 930, and John's troops are probably fatigued and disorganized a bit, so perhaps my garrison can still hold out until the 15th or so.  At Moulmein, John tried a deliberate attack with another division (I forgot to note which one).  This attack came off at 0:1 with 2 forts costing the Japs 422/21 and the Allies just 88/5.  Moulmein is a speed bump with another waiting across the river.  The Allies have finished evacuating DEI aircraft through Port Blair and Rangoon, so I pulled out the remaining Allied units from Rangoon.

Phillipines:  A few days ago I planned a "sneak sortie" against the Japanese units at Lingayen using troops from Bataan and Clark Field.  I cancelled this when recon showed additional Japanese units had arrived.  The P-40s at Manila Field are shooting down more aircraft than they are losing, but my replacement pool is getting low.  I'll have to pull out the remaining aircraft pretty soon.  The Allies still hold Bataan, Clark, and Manila in strength with good supply levels.  Cebu and one other base in the central Phillpines are also held. 

DEI/Timor:  Things have slowed down here.  John landed in force a hex west of Batavia, but hasn't moved yet.  I've evacuated my troops from Batavia and sent them to the city/mountain hex SW of Soerabaja.   O-20 put two TTs into CA Haguro at Koepang.  Award a medal to O-20's captain.

PM:  Japanese troops including 56th Division landed at PM, which is lightly held.  It should fall tomorrow. 

New Calendonia:  My ambush of the Japanese TF approaching Koumac failed - the surface combat TF didn't hit the right hex at the right time, and my two CVs didn't launch despite their proximity (5 hexes) from the Japs.  The combat replay showed Walrus recon aircraft sighting the Jap invasion TF, plus another TF with CAs (possibly a KB division) about 240 miles to the north.  Fearing a Jap ambush, I've ordered the CVs to scurry SW toward Sydney.  My surface combat TF will try for an intercept 60 miles west of Koumac tonight, and then make for Auckland.  These CAs and CLs will be in harm's way if Jap CVs move south.

SoPac:  Quiet at the moment.  Reinforcements (40th Divisions IIRC) will arrive at Pago Pago in less than a week.