Question with no answer

This new stand alone release based on the legendary War in the Pacific from 2 by 3 Games adds significant improvements and changes to enhance game play, improve realism, and increase historical accuracy. With dozens of new features, new art, and engine improvements, War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition brings you the most realistic and immersive WWII Pacific Theater wargame ever!

Moderators: wdolson, MOD_War-in-the-Pacific-Admirals-Edition

User avatar
tigercub
Posts: 2009
Joined: Mon Feb 03, 2003 12:25 pm
Location: brisbane oz

Question with no answer

Post by tigercub »

What if japan started its attacks in the philippines on dec 6 1941 in the late after noon and carried out its dec 7 attack at pearl would they be any more ready on that sunday morning?

I think they have only a few more planes in the air but not more at best?

your view?
Image
You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life
User avatar
JeffroK
Posts: 6395
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2005 4:05 am

RE: Question with no answer

Post by JeffroK »

Why wouldnt the US and Brits immediately go to 100% alert???

Dec7 might see no shipping in Pearl Harbor and all those Warhawks flying CAP.
Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum
User avatar
tigercub
Posts: 2009
Joined: Mon Feb 03, 2003 12:25 pm
Location: brisbane oz

RE: Question with no answer

Post by tigercub »

you think the ships would be moved in pearl? cap sure! I think they would be setting at anchor still its only about 7 hours
(given time difference) between attacks maybe a DD TF for subs...

most leaders were still thinking not possible to attack the base!
Image
You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life
Chris21wen
Posts: 6937
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2002 10:00 am
Location: Cottesmore, Rutland

RE: Question with no answer

Post by Chris21wen »

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Why wouldnt the US and Brits immediately go to 100% alert???

Dec7 might see no shipping in Pearl Harbor and all those Warhawks flying CAP.


More cap and ready a/c I agree. Some ships would be distpatched to elsewhere but the base would not be empty, you don't empty a base because somewhere else is attacked. The US would have no reason to expect thet PH would be attacked. In any case many ships would be unable to get a full crew (even if they had one) and most would not be able to get steam up.
wdolson
Posts: 7648
Joined: Tue Jun 27, 2006 9:56 pm
Location: Near Portland, OR

RE: Question with no answer

Post by wdolson »

Some ships were in dry dock and would not have been ready in 7 hours. A lot of ships at Pearl were completely shut down, boilers completely cold. It takes a while to get back up to temperature. The KB might have found the fleet refiring their boilers.

I read a book about the USS Dale which was a Farragut class DD at Pearl that morning. They had just gotten back to harbor 12 hours before, so while the fires were not lit, the boilers were still warm. The lieutenant on watch that morning ordered an emergency start of the boilers which can cause damage, but they got lucky. The Dale was caught in the ship channel during the second strike and Vals wasted a lot of bombs trying to hit her. Some masterful handling managed to get the Dale out to open sea with only minor damage from near misses.

Most of the BBs had completely cold boilers and would have taken a while to get up enough steam. I believe the Nevada had a boiler going or was in some state more active than the other BBs that allowed them to get up some steam.

If the Japanese had attacked the PI first, Pearl might have been more on alert, but they still would have been caught with their pants down. Kimmel and Short did not believe Pearl could be attacked from the air, even though it had in exercises been attacked twice with much success. Nobody in the west believed Japanese aircraft were as good as they were.

Some more ships would be at sea and some fighters probably would have been airborne, but I suspect the Japanese would have done almost as much damage.

Bill
WitP AE - Test team lead, programmer
Image
User avatar
tigercub
Posts: 2009
Joined: Mon Feb 03, 2003 12:25 pm
Location: brisbane oz

RE: Question with no answer

Post by tigercub »

7 hours about ...much less given waiting for orders just to do something!

Wdolson I think you are spot on..most ship as still going to be there even if not all of them! by the time KB attacks
Image
You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life
User avatar
tigercub
Posts: 2009
Joined: Mon Feb 03, 2003 12:25 pm
Location: brisbane oz

RE: Question with no answer

Post by tigercub »

they would but would have no time to do anything much that would be effective.
Image
You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life
User avatar
Chickenboy
Posts: 24520
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2002 11:30 pm
Location: San Antonio, TX

RE: Question with no answer

Post by Chickenboy »

My opinion? Many / most of the ships would have found some way to get underway and out of the choked killing grounds of Pearl. All boilers might not have been up and they may not have even embarked all crew, but I'm guessing they would have found some way out and scattered. Active naval search, active and heavy CAP and active and heavy AAA would have made the Japanese attack very costly.
Image
User avatar
tigercub
Posts: 2009
Joined: Mon Feb 03, 2003 12:25 pm
Location: brisbane oz

RE: Question with no answer

Post by tigercub »

The way I see it is even know they are at war..the ships are still not going to move...in the time they have..because they don't think they are in danger! remember the US has not been at war for a long time its Sunday morning there is an attack over 2,000km away your going to rush out and empty the harbor?

but opinions are what I am seeking..
Image
You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life
User avatar
HansBolter
Posts: 7191
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2006 12:30 pm
Location: United States

RE: Question with no answer

Post by HansBolter »

The biggest difference wouldn't have much to do with ships.

The biggest difference would have been sending out a realistic search with the plethora of PBYs sitting in port.

The biggest difference would have been a completely different reaction to spotting the incoming "B17s" on radar.

The biggest difference would have been the KB being spotted and the Americans having an effective CAP overhead waiting to greet them.

Try playing a first turn without surprise and see what happens having CAP over Pearl.
Hans

User avatar
AW1Steve
Posts: 14518
Joined: Sat Mar 10, 2007 6:32 am
Location: Mordor Illlinois

RE: Question with no answer

Post by AW1Steve »

A funny thing often happens when I set up that situation with the AI. When the KB gets attacked by LBA before the attack, it frequently turns around and goes home! [X(] Seeing how nervous Nagumo was about discovery and LBA (both at PH and later Midway) maybe that's not so unrealistic. [&:]
User avatar
tigercub
Posts: 2009
Joined: Mon Feb 03, 2003 12:25 pm
Location: brisbane oz

RE: Question with no answer

Post by tigercub »

good points Hans but I am not really talking about the game so much as what they would really have done 7 hrs after the attack in the Philippines ,I think they still would have been very slow to get up to speed...and not as ready as some would think.

but it is a Question with no real answer.

Tigercub
Image
You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life
User avatar
Capt Hornblower
Posts: 244
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2010 4:09 pm
Location: Massachusetts, USA

RE: Question with no answer

Post by Capt Hornblower »

I'd like to point out something that seems not to have been noticed. Tigercub posits a Dec. 6 attack in the Philippines. If this had happened, Allied commanders in Hawaii would have been on alert for over a day for possible attacks on the islands. The Philippines are on the other side of the IDL. (A Philippines attack in the late afternoon of Dec. 7 would have given an alert time of probably better than 12 hours, since Hawaii would be in darkness on the night of Dec. 6.)
User avatar
AW1Steve
Posts: 14518
Joined: Sat Mar 10, 2007 6:32 am
Location: Mordor Illlinois

RE: Question with no answer

Post by AW1Steve »

Another point is AAA preperation. Many of the AA guns at PH were not in their "wartime positions", in fact many were in storage. And most ships had their AMMO locked up, leading to stories of crews smashing lockers open and breaking locks. If you had 24 hours warning , all guns would have been manned, positioned, and properly supplied with AMMO. Even ships that couldn't be brought up to steam , could be towed to safer locations (like shallower water, or against a pier) and steps could be taken to ensure water tight integrity.

Even if the CAP was decimated or worse, that would provide some protection to the fleet and facilities. And if not, then aircraft could be dispersed.

Aircraft were gathered to ease guarding them , due to a shortage of personel. 24 hours would allow calling up the Territorial Guard and other security forces , allowing for a somewhat better dispersal plan.

Overall, even if not a single ship or aircraft could be moved, 100% manning would make the Japanese attack more expensive and probably less successful. [:)]
User avatar
tigercub
Posts: 2009
Joined: Mon Feb 03, 2003 12:25 pm
Location: brisbane oz

RE: Question with no answer

Post by tigercub »

its seems the time difference is greater than I was thinking...
Image
You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life
Ddog
Posts: 233
Joined: Thu Feb 17, 2005 2:37 am
Location: Cincinnati, OH

RE: Question with no answer

Post by Ddog »

Reading the thread made me think, given the communications of the day, does anyone have an idea how long it would have taken to notify the powers that be of the attack on the PI?
I'd rather be lucky than good.

User avatar
Lecivius
Posts: 4845
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 12:53 am
Location: Denver

RE: Question with no answer

Post by Lecivius »

There was a cable, so it would have been pretty fast.

I agree with the others. The ships may have been cold, but a war footing would dramatically have changed the defenses. A much stronger cap, even brushed aside, would disrupt the attack to some degree. AAA would have been ready & waiting. Aircraft would have been better dispersed.. A fleet recall would have the defenses a lot better staffed. The attack would still have caused a lot of damage, but I don't think it would have been as much.

Plus, personal opinion might not have been as great. America was completely incensed at a "sneak attack". This made it personal. Even the political doves were screaming for blood.
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
User avatar
Canoerebel
Posts: 21099
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2002 11:21 pm
Location: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Contact:

RE: Question with no answer

Post by Canoerebel »

Word of the attack would have been received at Pearl and the USA (and Oz and India and Britain) within minutes; certainly no more than an hour.

Pearl would have been a much stiffer test given five or ten or 20 hours notice.  As Hans notes, those radar operators who were misled about the identity of the incoming planes would have had a completely different reaction.  AA fire would have been much more intense as would CAP.  As others have noted, an already skittish Nagumo would have been that much more skittish.  And how would the USN carriers and aircraft squadrons be used? 

Pearl Harbor would've still been a Japanese victory, but the cost to Japan would have been much greater and the losses to the USN probably would have been somewhat less.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
User avatar
obvert
Posts: 14051
Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2011 11:18 am
Location: PDX (and now) London, UK

RE: Question with no answer

Post by obvert »

From my experience in game of a second day Dec 8 strike where PH was emptied, the remaining ships sortied and sent hunting, and lots of planes in the air attacking, it might have been lights out for the IJN if someone had the time and guts to send out the fleet toward the KB. The US CVs might have been called back and at least Enterprise getting close to Hawaii as well.

Even though it was only 7 hours difference in time, early morning patrols would have gone out, been more 'on edge,' (maybe even seen the strikes in the air coming in) and if the KB was sighted (especially if the Japanese did not see the shadowing plane) the entire fleet could have had a chance to wake up and get moving as the attacks rolled in. The CAP and flak would have reduced effectiveness of the strikes and maybe the second wave especially wouldn't have been even close to as effective.

Imagine 20 DDs, 4-5 cruisers and 4-5 BBs leaving Pearl at mid-day and going hunting. It's a long trip back to Japan.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
User avatar
Lecivius
Posts: 4845
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 12:53 am
Location: Denver

RE: Question with no answer

Post by Lecivius »

ORIGINAL: obvert

From my experience in game of a second day Dec 8 strike where PH was emptied, the remaining ships sortied and sent hunting, and lots of planes in the air attacking, it might have been lights out for the IJN if someone had the time and guts to send out the fleet toward the KB. The US CVs might have been called back and at least Enterprise getting close to Hawaii as well.

Even though it was only 7 hours difference in time, early morning patrols would have gone out, been more 'on edge,' (maybe even seen the strikes in the air coming in) and if the KB was sighted (especially if the Japanese did not see the shadowing plane) the entire fleet could have had a chance to wake up and get moving as the attacks rolled in. The CAP and flak would have reduced effectiveness of the strikes and maybe the second wave especially wouldn't have been even close to as effective.

Imagine 20 DDs, 4-5 cruisers and 4-5 BBs leaving Pearl at mid-day and going hunting. It's a long trip back to Japan.


This scenario was war gamed repeatedly, most recently on History Channel. It was shown pretty conclusively that a sortie would have resulted in the complete annihilation of the Pacific fleet. As it was, several ships, though badly damaged, were repaired & brought back into service.
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Post Reply

Return to “War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition”