Axis Strategic Principles for PBEM Play 1941 Campaign

[karonagames]

I know every Axis player is looking for an "I win" button, and is currently wondering if they will ever find it.

Is a decisive Victory achievable in PBEM play? Personally I think only a major skill/experience mis-match will ever see a decisive victory, and only if the losing player doesn't concede.

To achieve a draw the Axis has to hold on to Berlin and a bunch of Cities South of Berlin until October 1945.

To achieve a Minor Victory the Axis has to hold the line it starts Barbarossa at until Turn 225, and I think the Axis should base their Strategic Principles on achieving this.

I believe this can be done by preventing the Soviets from building an army capable of achieving their objectives. In WITE, the Red Army needs 4 things to achieve their objectives: Manpower, Resources, APs and Time. The Axis therefore needs to base all it's planning on depriving the Red Army of these resources. Each year of the Campaign will enable the Axis to achieve better than historical success in each category:

1941. This is the best opportunity to deprive the Red Army of it's manpower. Large pockets and capture of Manpower Centres should be the basis for all operations.

1942. The Red Army stops getting free replacement divisions and will have to spend APs to replace destroyed units. This year also sees the best opportunity to deprive the Red Army of the resources it needs. A campaign in the south which is pocket-friendly and resource heavy will force the SU to spend APs on replacing losses instead of building the Tank Corps and Artillery Divisions that he needs for offensive operations. Less resource availability will slow down the rate at which the units can build up to full strength.

1943. Assuming the Axis has not given the SU the opportunity to recreate Stalingrad; 1943 gives the Axis the best opportunity to deprive the SU of what he needs the most - Time. If you have captured resources in the south the Axis should make the Soviets fight for every hex south of the Don as there are a lot of them. The area between the Don and Rostov will gain in importance as the SU needs this to cut off the Caucasus.

If, by July 1943 the Axis is holding a line Leningrad/Rzhev/Tula/Voronezh/Boguchar/Voroshilovsk, they have 115 turns to keep the Red Army east of the Barbarossa start line. The shortest distance between those 2 lines is 50 hexes. It may not seem like a lot, so that will be the challenge for 1944.

1944. Time. Defend, delay, counter attack and manage your manpower to maintain your infantry front line strength, because while you have been applying the Axis Strategic Principles, the Soviet will have been applying his main tool - Attrition. The Axis simply does not have the manpower to maintain front line strength at 1941 levels, and will need to find every source of manpower to keep rifle squad strength at levels that can maintain the infantry front line at a decent level of combat effectiveness. If you fall below 24k rifle squads, start to worry, if you fall below 16k, the line will be close to collapse!

Defence of Finland will be important, as if the Soviets get this the Axis will need to hold VPs east of the start line on turn 225.

1945. By forcing the SU to take back more territory faster than they did historically, the Axis Allies should be available for longer to help absorb the attritional losses. As Historically, AGS will be under the most pressure as the terrain is the least helpful for defence once the Dnepr is breached.

Have I done this myself? No, but I look forward to having a lot of fun trying to achieve it. None of the individual objectives look unachievable based on my testing to date.

[Q-Ball]

Bob, this is excellent, and helps alot. A couple follow-on quesitons:

1. This presumes that RESOURCES are the main bottleneck for Soviet production. Capture RESOURCES, and you will see fewer guns and whatnot facing you. Does taking RESOURCES put a dent in Soviet production? Or, are there more important bottlenecks (Fuel, or something else?)

It is important to know, and I use WITP AE as an example. In that game, the Japanese Economy absolutely needs RESOURCES to survive. However, generally there is an excess, more than the Japanese can effectively use. This makes prioritizing them not smart. The Bottleneck is OIL; take OIL, and the Japanese production will immediately begin to suffer. Resources don't really matter to Allied offensive calculations. What is the key in WITE?

2. Same question, except the other way around: Can the Axis effectively USE captured Resources? Will you see more guns in your units if you are successful here?

3. Someone awhile ago did a map which did a great job pointing out where the RESOURCES are: There is a cluster in the Dnepr bend, more in the Donbas region, etc. Looking at this map, you can see the importance of the Ukraine.

Do we have a sense for where all the Manpower is? We can all mouse over ourselves and find it, but a VISUAL or quick description would be great. First-pass, it looks like the UKRAINE again has alot of Manpower there......

This also can answer the question of "Why take space"? Alot of space looks pretty useless, but if there is MANPOWER there, that is a payback to the AXIS for conquering acres of steppe.

[heliodorus04]

Great discussion.

[gradenko2k]

I'd say that the Soviet bottleneck is actually manpower, not resources.

Back when we had a thread discussing the merits of a drive towards Baku, the value of a strong southern drive was not so much the oil, but the large amounts of troops that could be recruited across the Donbas. As one of the posters put it, "No one's going to care if a bunch of undermanned 1=1 infantry div shells lack oil"

However, I believe this only mostly extends to 1941, where the recruitment modifier is so high. Or rather, high enough that pausing your offensive to create pockets may actually result in a net gain for the Red Army, relative to simply taking manpower centers.

[Ketza]

Very well done.

[karonagames]

1. This presumes that RESOURCES are the main bottleneck for Soviet production. Capture RESOURCES, and you will see fewer guns and whatnot facing you. Does taking RESOURCES put a dent in Soviet production? Or, are there more important bottlenecks (Fuel, or something else?)

Yes, I should have been clearer about this; Resources is a catch-all for resources Oil and Fuel. In the production cycle, Oil produces Fuel, fuel is consumed moving resources. Resources and Oil produce supplies via Heavy Industry. Supplies are then consumed by the rest of the production network to produce equipment, so shortages in oil and resources will feed through into a shortfall in overall production

[Encircled]

Surely the the '42 offensive for the Germans will have exactly the same problems that they had historically?

Namely less than ideal flanks manned by allied troops

Saying that, it does look like the only realistic '42 offensive is in the South.

I can't see any realistic chance of a Moscow or Leningrad capture in '42 (or in '41 for that matter, against a competent human)

[karonagames]

2. Same question, except the other way around: Can the Axis effectively USE captured Resources? Will you see more guns in your units if you are successful here?

Captured resources need to be connected to a supplied railway line, so if you are holding resources near the Caucasus, that rail line through Rostov becomes very important. Personally, I would treat any resources I managed to add to my production network as a bonus. I couldn't tell you what a month of resources from the Caucasus would translate into,but I doubt it would be 500 Tigers if that's what you are hoping for! Fighting 500 less T34's is more important in this strategy.

[karonagames]

his also can answer the question of "Why take space"? Alot of space looks pretty useless, but if there is MANPOWER there, that is a payback to the AXIS for conquering acres of steppe.

Yes and No. Occupied space has to be fought for and this takes TIME. I would rather pull my teeth out than give the enemy a hex for free, when I play either side. At the very least they should pay MPs to enter/leave any of MY hexes.

[karonagames]

Surely the the '42 offensive for the Germans will have exactly the same problems that they had historically?

Namely less than ideal flanks manned by allied troops

Saying that, it does look like the only realistic '42 offensive is in the South.

I can't see any realistic chance of a Moscow or Leningrad capture in '42 (or in '41 for that matter, against a competent human)

I saw a post in one of the other threads about stretching the line, and I think the SU would have to thin its lines around Leningrad and Moscow and give an opportunity to make a push For Leningrad and or Moscow. When I start the "Operational principles" thread I will be stressing the need to look for opportunities.

The Axis allies can be managed carefully to get their Morale/Experience up to German levels - I think I saw a screenshot posted elsewhere showing a Rumanian Div. with a CV of 12! (I've never got them that good!) You can also corset them with Germans.

But there is no denying the flanks will be a problem.

[karonagames]

However, I believe this only mostly extends to 1941, where the recruitment modifier is so high. Or rather, high enough that pausing your offensive to create pockets may actually result in a net gain for the Red Army, relative to simply taking manpower centers.

Yes it's a tricky balance, but seeing how the SU manpower is ballooning during the Winter if the Axis didn't get Stalino etc., I think you have to forgo the pocket and go for the Manpower.

I think 1942 should be the year of the pockets.

[Encircled]

But surely the Soviets have more offensive power available, so forming pockets and holding them becomes much harder?

Be interesting to see how some of the current AAR's '42 offensives work out

[karonagames]

Be interesting to see how some of the current AAR's '42 offensives work out

We need Jon PyleDriver back - he has been having PC problems - we need to let him loose. I have been testing a new scenario "Red Army Resurgent" which recreates the Operation Uranus and the Stalingrad pocket. The SU Offensive power in 1942 is nowhere near as powerful as their power in 1943, which is why I am pretty confident I can rescue 6th Army. I might do an AAR.

[Emx77]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

3. Someone awhile ago did a map which did a great job pointing out where the RESOURCES are: There is a cluster in the Dnepr bend, more in the Donbas region, etc. Looking at this map, you can see the importance of the Ukraine.

Do we have a sense for where all the Manpower is? We can all mouse over ourselves and find it, but a VISUAL or quick description would be great. First-pass, it looks like the UKRAINE again has alot of Manpower there......

Here is the thread with visual presentation of resource and production centers:

Production and resources

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: BigAnorak
I have been testing a new scenario "Red Army Resurgent" which recreates the Operation Uranus and the Stalingrad pocket. The SU Offensive power in 1942 is nowhere near as powerful as their power in 1943, which is why I am pretty confident I can rescue 6th Army. I might do an AAR.

Will be reading that one with the greatest pleasure [&o]

[karonagames]

Will be reading that one with the greatest pleasure

It might be a while, and need a few do overs to get the whole "how do we keep an isolated army alive for 12 weeks" problem sorted out.

[KenchiSulla]

Whatever you do, don't ask Göring.... he forgot to check the resources available to him before making promises...

[karonagames]

Miscounted his APs you mean? [:)]

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: BigAnorak

Will be reading that one with the greatest pleasure

It might be a while, and need a few do overs to get the whole "how do we keep an isolated army alive for 12 weeks" problem sorted out.

Fair enough. Tuning the game so it can simulate something like the struggle around Demjansk that took place during the winter of 1941-42 is also a worthy goal [:)]

ORIGINAL: Cannonfodder
Whatever you do, don't ask Göring.... he forgot to check the resources available to him before making promises...

Well, I think that the Luftwaffe actually did a good job keeping the guys surrounded in Demjansk alive. Too bad that the VVS on 1942 was far more able and the Chir airfields defended by the 11 PzDiv were eventually ran over...

[findmeifyoucan]

Just a question on the guaranteed 1 hex move? Does this include moving from EZoc to EZoc?